News Coronavirus Thread

[Tas]

Boeing might genuinely collapse at this rate.


Expected to open down another 20%, as indicated on the Dow futures. In free fall.

Boeing is the 2nd largest military contractor in the world and about half their income is from military aircraft and missile systems, I don't think it will impact them long-term, but they might get hammered in the short-term.

 

[Gasometer]

Heard a report today that said we might bet to a 7-7.5% unemployment rate. It all depends how long it lasts. The whole point of excessive isolation is to starve the virus, so it should not be a long term thing. Less intense isolation will result in more cases but hopefully at a manageable rate.

Our problem is that we have been whacked with drought and bushfires in the past year

 

[sbdan]

Humanity has become so pathetic so quickly. Maybe this is just a chinese precursor to war, to ascertain our readiness. We are ripe for the picking

 

[Tas]

Humanity has become so pathetic so quickly. Maybe this is just a chinese precursor to war, to ascertain our readiness. We are ripe for the picking

#KungFlu :stern look

 

[Del191229]

My understanding is that people die all the time. Older people especially.

In fact in 2018, according to the ABS, about 150k people died in Australia.

Deaths, Australia, 2024

Statistics about deaths and mortality rates for Australia, states and territories, and sub-state regions

www.abs.gov.au

So far I have seen zero evidence to suggest that older people have more to fear from coronavirus than they do from the common flu.

So all the world's medical experts are wrong, and you, a wannabe edgelord from the internet, are right.

 

[Del191229]

There'll be a second tranche of stimulus at both Commonwealth and State level, nothing surer.

What they've done so far is like chucking sandwiches at an advancing T-Rex.

 

[Horace]

In the great depression food shortages contributed to the misery of the people that endured it, there is no practical reason for food shortages this time around. sure there is panic buying of meats and pasta etc but i went into an independent IGA tonight to get a tea strainer of all things and there was a massive choice of foods from tinned soups ( even had a pallet near full in front of the register aisles) to heaps of vegetables and other lines. even their meat coolers whilst quite depleted had a reasonable choice of cuts to make a limitless amount of meals if you can actually read a recipe sheet. this was a bit of a difference from aldi the other day where a lot of the lines were completely depleted.

i would guess the difference between the stores possibly has to do with their distribution methods or maybe a bit of the panic buying has eased up?

One of the major social problems during the Great Depression of the 1930's was the high level of unemployment and homelessness. Many unemployed took to the road seeking work and bearing in mind our population was much more rural based than it is today, it was not uncommon for those people to walk the roads and knock on doors seeking work.

My grandparents or probably really my grandmother on my mothers side (my grandfathered died during the early 1930's) was one of the luckier farmers. They had been dairy farming in the Port Campbell area from 1920 on and owned the farm. During the Depression many unemployed men walked up the track to her house looking for work. She did not have the resources to employ them as the farm had to feed 8 hungry mouths - her and her 7 children all in their late teens or older - but not one of those men left without being given something to eat - usually bread, butter and jam and a cup of tea - then given some more food to take away with them when they left. She was one very tough but compassionate and caring person, something I probably never really properly understood until she died in 1968.

Fancy taking on a farm in the middle of mostly bush, with the nearest doctor then, over 30 miles away in Camperdown, the roads mainly dirt tracks and the chief transport horse and buggy.

We have had it really easy compared to those people. It was a hugely different world then yet it is less than 90 years ago.

 

[Pykie]

F-35 stealth technology and drone technology. I say that will be end of the loyal wingman drone fighter program.

Actually, the main issue is, they co-designed the F-22 Raptor, it’s export is congressionally banned and its production line was dismantled after the final one was produced.


As the Alpha strike aircraft in the world, it’s probably the most closely guarded tech in the world just about.

 

[Pykie]

-10% in real GDP by definition is an economic depression.

 

[Val Keating]

Boeing might genuinely collapse at this rate.


Expected to open down another 20%, as indicated on the Dow futures. In free fall.

They’ve literally been pushing brand new 737’s in to the desert or a while and now this. The US won’t let them fail though.

 

[Tectonic]

What they've done so far is like chucking sandwiches at an advancing T-Rex.

I'm way out of my depth on these matters but in a global economy how much can Australia actually do to wether such a collapse?
I know we came out of 08 relatively well but the economic map is pretty different now, no?

 

[Del191229]

Boeing might genuinely collapse at this rate.


Expected to open down another 20%, as indicated on the Dow futures. In free fall.

Will be bailed out if not straight up nationalised. Is effectively an arm of the US Defense Department as it is.

 

[Del191229]

Yeah, Defence is the main issue, a lot of R&D there, will get nationalized before the US let an international raider come in.

One of the largest companies in the world potentially wiped out in a matter of weeks.

Was on the way down after the 737-500 disaster though. And always looking shaky going long with climate change pressures.

 

[Del191229]

Actually, the main issue is, they co-designed the F-22 Raptor, it’s export is congressionally banned and its production line was dismantled after the final one was produced.


As the Alpha strike aircraft in the world, it’s probably the most closely guarded tech in the world just about.

Even Israel didn't get them, which is saying something.

 

[Del191229]

I'm way out of my depth on these matters but in a global economy how much can Australia actually do to wether such a collapse?
I know we came out of 08 relatively well but the economic map is pretty different now, no?

We're pretty well placed. Largely because we DIDN'T suffer much in 2008.

Imbeciles claim money was wasted by Rudd/Swan then but what they did was hailed globally as the world's best response, and it was. They kept unemployment down below 10 per cent which is critical. It takes so much longer to get that rate down than it does for it to go up.

We have enormous advantages though. The first is super. We have an enormous pile of cash and assets that we can use to get through this.

We can thank Paul Keating for that. It is a generationally defining policy achievement and it will save us here.

We also have vast amounts of raw materials of every sort. Some will be in less demand in a global slowdown, but we also have stuff like lithium that will be in high demand.

We have great human capital as well. Our medical research is world leading, and we have hugely important soft power cultural production.

Most importantly though, we have very strong political and governance institutions. Our system will hold up in ways that other countries don't have.

Take Britain. The 2008 crash led directly to the Brexit vote. Even by the Brexiteers own admission leaving the EU will cost 5-10 per cent of GDP. Add that to what is happening and British living standards are going to be below where they were in 2007 well into the 2030s.

Australian living standards in the 2030s will be well ahead of where they are now (presuming the climate effects aren't too bad)

 

[Tas]

I'm way out of my depth on these matters but in a global economy how much can Australia actually do to wether such a collapse?

Some impact, however, we do not have a massive impact on the global economy because we aren't a manufacturing nation.

I know we came out of 08 relatively well but the economic map is pretty different now, no?

Our saving grace is we make... well, pretty much nothing, it means our lows aren't as bad as those who rely a lot on exporting a lot of finished goods. Our manufacturing sector has shrunk like a willy in ice cold water.

Our economy is basically a consumption economy, that is the vast majority of our economy is meeting the present needs of the population. It doesn't matter how shit the global economy is, people still need to eat, shit and utilise essential services. When people stop buying things when there is fear, they still spend money on necessities so to some extent we are sheltered.

We managed to do well in 2008 because the previous Liberal government were extreme penny pinchers, we had very low foreign debt so had a lot of capacity to borrow. Our banks are heavily regulated and stuck in bricks and mortar lending, unless the housing market collapses, the banks are very solid. Post GFC our banks were among the most profitable in the world. These factors saw our stability be valued as a safe harbour and a lot of investment money flowed into our country from those that were hit a lot harder than we were, the profiteering benefitted us. Since the USA resurgence, the money flowed back out and the profiteering hurt us and has ground our economy to a halt.

We were also sheltered due to China's booming economy at the time, all the loss we suffered in terms of exports, particularly in the mining sector to other nations was more than offset by increased demand from China and we established a very healthy balance of trade surplus with China as a lot of the imports from us went into infrastructure developments, rather than raw materials that came back as finished goods, which are a lot more valuable than the raw material.

America's war on China is basically a war on us as well. They are motivated on being the #1 economic power in the world and crippling China's growth has meant crippling China's demand for our raw materials. It may sound ludicrous, but China is much easier for us to trade with as a communist nation than the world capitalist leader. We have crippling tariffs and/or quotas on almost everything we export to the USA, our recent Free Trade Agreement with them was little more than loosen some of these draconian barriers for a deal that heavily benefitted the USA in the end.

We have been accumulating a lot of debt since the Howard years, the percentage of debt to GDP in 2008 was 9.865% of GDP, it is now 40.7%. This is still considered solid in terms of financial institutions. Japan is at 238%. Greece 181%. Italy 135% USA 107%, etc. The more debt you have, the harder it is to borrow more money, the higher the interest rates governments need to offer with their bonds, etc. We still have plenty of scope for the government to borrow, but it is a lot more compromised than it was in 2008.

 

[Cool Kangas]

So FC discussion (just saw snippet of it on Twitter) about the possibility of vulnerable clubs actually going under as a result of this crisis. NM mentioned as always struggling....yep of course. So will this crisis lead to our club amongst others folding? (This is a serious question).

 

[Del191229]

So FC discussion (just saw snippet of it on Twitter) about the possibility of vulnerable clubs actually going under as a result of this crisis. NM mentioned as always struggling....yep of course. So will this crisis lead to our club amongst others folding? (This is a serious question).

No.

 

[Twinkletoes]

So FC discussion (just saw snippet of it on Twitter) about the possibility of vulnerable clubs actually going under as a result of this crisis. NM mentioned as always struggling....yep of course. So will this crisis lead to our club amongst others folding? (This is a serious question).

According to Eddie tonight all 18 clubs have made a pact to help ensure none of their fellow clubs go out of business as a result of the struggles ahead. He also raised the subject of the Vic Gov’t stepping up to provide up to $200M in interest free loans.

Tough times lay ahead for sure but I doubt it’ll be the death of our club, nor any other, if Eddie’s to be believed.

 

[Cool Kangas]

No.

Look I get that thankfully we’re pretty much debt free but we, as with multiple clubs can’t afford the kinds of financial losses that will potentially happen this season. I just don’t want us to end up the Tassie Roos (or worse). Does the afl have enough money to cover this unprecedented situation?

 

[Cool Kangas]

According to Eddie tonight all 18 clubs have made a pact to help ensure none of their fellow clubs go out of business as a result of the struggles ahead. He also raised the subject of the Vic Gov’t stepping up to provide up to $200M in interest free loans.

Tough times lay ahead for sure but I doubt it’ll be the death of our club, nor any other, if Eddie’s to be believed.

Thanks for that reply. You posted as I asked my afl question below

 

[Cool Kangas]

According to Eddie tonight all 18 clubs have made a pact to help ensure none of their fellow clubs go out of business as a result of the struggles ahead. He also raised the subject of the Vic Gov’t stepping up to provide up to $200M in interest free loans.

Tough times lay ahead for sure but I doubt it’ll be the death of our club, nor any other, if Eddie’s to be believed.

And out of interest TT why weren’t the WB mentioned as vulnerable? Just wondering.

 

[tazaa]

As expected weddings off.
I have never despised the federal government to the point it hits a high extreme but without a doubt this current mob is the worst thing to happen to Australia.
Allowing the Grand Prix to half go ahead and then the decision to accept 30,000 international students being held in third countries on Feb 16 was the pinnacle.
All cause of the dollar. Greedy scum.

I’m lucky my job won’t be hit by the virus pandemic but god I wish politicians would suffer someway.
Small business owners and casual employees should not have to endure a sleepless night whereas Morrison and Andrews would drop two loads on their wives belly before nodding off like toddlers.

 

[big_e]

Boeing might genuinely collapse at this rate.


Expected to open down another 20%, as indicated on the Dow futures. In free fall.

US Govt will bail them out.

Could easily argue they are structurally significant because of the defence stuff. Protecting US manufacturing jobs, stopping it falling into Chinese hands, yada yada yada. Huge political win for Trump with his base.

 

[Waussie]

We are killing it atm. Independent fine wine store in SA, traditional buyers that would grab a bottle or two on the way home from work are taking a doz at a time.

Guilty