Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[Heeney2Franklin]

1 month shutdown from Monday

All non-essential services shut down,

The ministry of Health will be randomly inspecting business, and if you're caught working where you're not supposed to be, the entire workforce gets sent home and if you're a foreigner your work pass is cancelled on the spot you are escorted to the airport.

Good times ahead.

Source?

 

[sataris]

Source?

Straits Times and the aunties/uncles in hawker centres.

 

[Kirkswan]

1 month shutdown from Monday

All non-essential services shut down,

The ministry of Health will be randomly inspecting business, and if you're caught working where you're not supposed to be, the entire workforce gets sent home and if you're a foreigner your work pass is cancelled on the spot you are escorted to the airport.

Good times ahead.

That whole second wave thing... hang in there

 

[Kirkswan]

The transmission factor / velocity is supposed to be about 3

so that's n³

I'm thinking you're thinking that i'm following you... but I'm lost.

I was talking about the percentage of dead victims, who were fit and well before they died, which I'm told (perhaps by you (or maybe scaryness)) is 1.8% of the total deaths, and the total deaths if 5% of those who catch the virus, and only 1.8% of those died where fit and well, we're doing okay...

The numbers are scary, but we're doing okay. with a long way to go yet.

 

[Kirkswan]

Covid-19 is a variant of the spanish flu but 100 years in advancements have made humans more adaptable.

I'm not sure that that's exactly right, but I'll agree that they are both virulent viruses that attack the respiratory systems... and are/were very, very contagious!

Keep in mind the statistics of the spanish flu are wildly inaccurate.

Absolutely, the de-mobilisation of the first world war forces spread it across the world, and many who reportedly died of their wounds, actually died of the flu complicating things... And lots of people in those time weren't actually registered, so neither their births or deaths were recorded.

If the Spanish flu infected 500 million and killed 50 to 100 million, the global CFR was 10 to 20 percent. If the fatality rate was in fact 2.5 percent, and if 500 million were infected, then the death toll was 12.5 million. There were 1.8 billion people in 1918. To make 50 million deaths compatible with a 2.5 percent CFR would require at least two billion infections—more than the number of people that existed at the time.

You've misunderstood, I was talking about the number of fit & health people 'so far' with no known comorbidities, that have died from contracting COVID-19...

I agree the death toll will be horrendous, but on a comparisom to the spanish flu, a much smaller percentage of the population will die...

 

[Kirkswan]

Bottle shops are essential, surely. Do they want riots?

From Nanny state to Police State in a few weeks.

Source?

You know he's talking about Singapore, right?

 

[Arwib]

Bottle shops are essential, surely. Do they want riots?

Even the most complete lockdowns in various countries have kept bottle shops open if alcohol isn't at super markets.

This for one very simple reason: withdrawal from alcohol dependency often requires hospitalisation because otherwise they can kill. Delirium tremens is no joke.

 

[Arwib]

1.8% death rate for otherwise healthy/fit people is pretty significant.

Also underlying condition is a very broad term and can mean like half the population. As well as lung and heart disease and immune issues, it also means things like smoking, high blood pressure, asthma, diabetes... it might even include pregnancy.

 

[Wolftone]

Because around May/June is when the experts are predicting the outbreak to be at it's peak. Which would fall right in the middle of that 17 week period. So I think the AFL's logic is we need games to fall on either side of that lengthy break in the season, which would mean getting things started sooner rather than later.

Still don't agree with it though.

The height of this epidemic could come quickly. It is my belief we are almost there. There are some recalcitrant nations, USA, that are dragging the chain. But most seem to have reached the curve stage.

Italy & Spain were basket cases because the virus got into centres of the elderly and decimated them. Australia's response was not ideal either. The limiting of testing to only those who had been to ground zero was ill thought out seeing the virus had spread far and wide by then. Then being slow to socially isolate and not testing new arrivals at ports and airports was downright negligent. The response in many countries mirrors Australia's. What is the point of WHO having a Pandemic Operational Strategy if only the very few use it?

The USA is the worst and all other countries should isolate them completely. The Australian government decided to go ahead with War Games, better known as manoeuvres with the US fleet. Again short sighted and really stupid in this situation. The US has over 200,000 infections that they know about. If that is the case there could be as many as 100,000 sleepers spreading the virus. They have put little or no prevention in place and the virus is spreading at an alarming rate.

I think that if the majority of nations adopt the WHO strategy, which they seem to be doing, and isolate those that don't then the virus could easily die out by the end of May. But if they don't then we are looking at August/September. But it is imperative they isolate nations like the US and Brazil who are totally negligent.

On U27 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mikey_san]

Numbers are falling, and on a low base - could have footy on again in a month if we keep the borders closed to non-citizens and enforced isolation for people returning.

 

[mikey_san]

1.8% death rate for otherwise healthy/fit people is pretty significant.

It's far, far lower than that among anyone under 60.
Almost insignificant for anyone under 50.
Though of course that all changes if the health system is overwhelmed and they run out of ventilators etc.
Reckon the footy is back on in 4-5 weeks with no crowds. Just keep the players away from their parents for the season if they want to play would be a good move.

 

[swansfan51]

A lot of people don't yet seem to accept the reality that we will be living with these restrictions for a long time. Every senior medical officer in the country has said that the virus cannot be eradicated, so we are living with restrictions until either a vaccine has been created and widely distributed, or 60%+ of the country has had the virus.

For option B, 14,500,000 Australians need to get the virus, and we've currently had 5700. At the current rate of spread, we're waiting for a vaccine which is 12-18 months away in an optimistic scenario. I don't like this, in fact it is completely horrifying. But that is the path we have currently chosen.

 

[The King!]

A lot of people don't yet seem to accept the reality that we will be living with these restrictions for a long time. Every senior medical officer in the country has said that the virus cannot be eradicated, so we are living with restrictions until either a vaccine has been created and widely distributed, or 60%+ of the country has had the virus.

For option B, 14,500,000 Australians need to get the virus, and we've currently had 5700. At the current rate of spread, we're waiting for a vaccine which is 12-18 months away in an optimistic scenario. I don't like this, in fact it is completely horrifying. But that is the path we have currently chosen.

i think people think you lockdown for a few weeks and its eradicated

the exit strategy is hopefully being worked on

 

[mtooler]

A lot of people don't yet seem to accept the reality that we will be living with these restrictions for a long time. Every senior medical officer in the country has said that the virus cannot be eradicated, so we are living with restrictions until either a vaccine has been created and widely distributed, or 60%+ of the country has had the virus.

For option B, 14,500,000 Australians need to get the virus, and we've currently had 5700. At the current rate of spread, we're waiting for a vaccine which is 12-18 months away in an optimistic scenario. I don't like this, in fact it is completely horrifying. But that is the path we have currently chosen.

For what its worth, I'm mates with a virologist works in health in Newcastle, they are rebooting the vaccine work on MERS and SARS. Apparently the MERS and SARS trials were dangerous to mice, so he laughed with his other virologist mate that they are trying it on Ferrets now. (Me trying to not appear as dumb as I am, I said nothing, but assume the laughter is that a vaccine is a fair way off). No guarantee one will be discovered. More likely to see a treatment developed before hand using antimalarial drugs I'm told. Happy to defer to anyone in here that is an expert though, I've read as widely as I can for my community I'm responsible for. Sis in law is an ER Nurse, interesting view is once respirators are used to treat COVID19 it can aerosol up to 10.5m2 per patient not in infectious disease spaces. She has been tested due to exposure but is negative.

I can say anyone with kids the Department of Education has not settled on what education will look like for Term 2, there are 3 models being considered, its a mess.

 

[RW]

the exit strategy is hopefully being worked on

Surely we can come up with a strategy whereby low-risk people can go back to work sooner if they practice social distancing. Here's an example I saw on Twitter.

 

[caesar88]

Numbers are falling, and on a low base - could have footy on again in a month if we keep the borders closed to non-citizens and enforced isolation for people returning.

Australia's numbers are very good, relatively speaking. But celebrating the slowing of the spread right now would be the equivalent of a team putting the cue in the rack because they're 30 points up at quarter time. There is still such a long way to go and so much potential for further outbreaks if we are not totally stringent, which includes the AFL.

 

[The King!]

Surely we can come up with a strategy whereby low-risk people can go back to work sooner if they practice social distancing. Here's an example I saw on Twitter.

gets hard to police

presume we wont be back to normal until there is a vaccine, maybe we get a more semi normal before then

apparently theres some government modelling out soon

 

[The King!]

eventually you just wear deaths imo

Diabolical dilemma looms even after coronavirus curve is flattened

The nation's leaders face a diabolical trade-off between imposing harsh social distancing measures for the long haul and more coronavirus deaths.

www.smh.com.au

 

[swansfan51]

Surely we can come up with a strategy whereby low-risk people can go back to work sooner if they practice social distancing. Here's an example I saw on Twitter.

Most of the people who have lost work are in industries such as hospitality, retail, travel. Those industries require large numbers of people to access them to be viable. If groups can't congregate and travel, there is no point in allowing those workers to return as the businesses are not viable.

The article The King! posted nails it:

The pandemic will only end when enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity or scientists develop a vaccine, likely at least 12 months away, experts said.

The choice is for us to decide how long the lockdown lasts. A slow rate of spread, like we have now, means a 12-18 month lockdown.

 

[mtooler]

Australia's numbers are very good, relatively speaking. But celebrating the slowing of the spread right now would be the equivalent of a team putting the cue in the rack because they're 30 points up at quarter time. There is still such a long way to go and so much potential for further outbreaks if we are not totally stringent, which includes the AFL.

It would be akin to Longmire putting Reid or Heeney in defence after going 3 goals up in a match.

 

[The King!]

Most of the people who have lost work are in industries such as hospitality, retail, travel. Those industries require large numbers of people to access them to be viable. If groups can't congregate and travel, there is no point in allowing those workers to return as the businesses are not viable.

The article The King! posted nails it:


The choice is for us to decide how long the lockdown lasts. A slow rate of spread, like we have now, means a 12-18 month lockdown.

ive seen suggestions of handbreak off /on just to manage the next year, how far a handbreak off can go i wont pretend to know

id just like to see scomo say ok this is how we hope to attack it going forward

not just hint at 6 months etc

 

[Millky95]

Most of the people who have lost work are in industries such as hospitality, retail, travel. Those industries require large numbers of people to access them to be viable. If groups can't congregate and travel, there is no point in allowing those workers to return as the businesses are not viable.

The article The King! posted nails it:


The choice is for us to decide how long the lockdown lasts. A slow rate of spread, like we have now, means a 12-18 month lockdown.

Mate I am in the arts and events industry that everyone forgets about. It's dead now. The longer this goes on, the longer a lot of people are going to be in serious trouble and I'm afraid they are gonna be part of the dead statistics from this virus, that aren't because of the virus itself.

Which is bullshit because this is what is necassary for everyone else to survive.

Dammit we need a cure

 

[The King!]

we need most people to actually catch the ****en thing surely?

 

[Punts]

2 minds atm for tomorrow

Old man has last round of chemo and could be in remission but he is very scared of getting sick from any type of flu.

71 and no immune system

 

[mtooler]

we need most people to actually catch the fu**en thing surely?

Sweden's approach with some social distancing.