This is based on my logic as opposed to what will happen. It's all guesswork anyway, so using my logic, this is how I think it should turn out. I think it will be a very needs-based draft.
Also, there are plenty of descriptions about players...so this draft looks at clubs needs and philosophies behind the pick etc, and not in depth descriptions about the player.
1. Mel - Tom Scully - Best player in draft. Logic says best player goes number 1.
2. Mel - Jack Trengove - Melbourne went a KPP last year with their pick 1, so will now complete their midfield. They will be hoping guys like Blease start coming on as well in the next few years.
3. Rich - Dustin Martin - Tigers looking to complete their midfield for the next 10 years.
4. Freo - Anthony Morabito - There is speculation going against it. But my logic says he is a local boy with as much talent as anyone in the draft. Sensible option with plenty of upside.
From here on in the explanations get more detailed
5. North - Gary Rohan
I think it will be Cunnington, but I just wonder if the Roo's need some X factor instead. They took Ziebell last year who looks a certainity to make it. Swallow had a great year last year as well winning their B&F. Liam Anthony is the ball-magnet. They still have Boomer but must start preparing for life after him. I think they need another hard bodied midfielder as well, but maybe they can get something a bit later on.
Hopefully for the Roo's Wells comes back and takes the tag. Leaves Rohan to start off up forward and really develop his game.
But odds are it will be Cunnington.
6. Sydney - John Butcher
Again, the odds of this happening are not high. But it makes sense to me. Despite the talk about his kicking, ultimately he is still the best KPF in the draft.
Sydney will have forward options next year in Bradshaw, White and Goodes. That will do next year, but beyond that Bradshaw has a max of 2 years and Goodes is getting closer to the end too and will still be required on the ball to open games up.
They have lost Hall and O'Loughlin and passed on Fev. Bradshaw is no more than a short-term fix.
The have holes in the midfield granted. But they have gone and got Kennedy and McGlynn. Vezpremi will move into the midfield eventually, but will start forward again as they work on his fitness and injury concerns. Kennelly is also back to add a bit of run from defence.
No, I think it should be a forward and Butcher is the best available.
This sends the draft order into chaos now.
7. WC - Lewis Jetta
I suppose i move away from my logic and go back to what is most likely to happen. Reports look increasingly solid that he will be the first mature aged player picked.
But let's get back to logic. They need someone of his type. He would start forward. They now have the talls in Kennedy, Lynch and McKinley. They have the rucks. They also add a midfielder in Dalziell, and will basically get a new player in Daniel Kerr back.
Jetta will become more a midfield option, but for now they could use someone with a good goal-sense and a bit of X-Factor. They lack that goal-sneak up forward.
8. Port Adelaide - Luke Tapscott
Before trade week I thought they'd go tall. But with both Burgoynes leaving they probably need to address a midfielder in one of their top 10 picks. Being an SA boy with no go-home factor should appeal.
It's tough because he is going a bit higher than guys like Cunnington who probably deserves to be a top 5 pick. But I think Port like local boys. They went Hartlett last year and were very keen to get pick 2 this year to score Trengove. With the turmoil within the club, I think they will play safe and go a local kid.
9. P.Adel - Daniel Talia
With 2 picks in the top 10, it is important they get a tall. Is the ideal height at 195 for a KPP. Teams in the last few years have taken good defenders early (Hurley, Nathan Brown). Port definitely need talls, and atleast Talia could potentially go forward or back. But I think he would be a back.
My feeling is Butcher will be available so they will take him. And this is why Sydney taking Butcher throws the draft into chaos.
There are holes in defence, but with Tredrea nearing the end they need a forward to.
10. Ess - Ben Cunnington
My feeling is that Cunnington will be taken at 5. But based on my draft, Cunnington becomes the victim of Sydney taking Butcher at 5. With West Coast committing to Jetta and Port committing to a local boy and a KPP, Cunnington slips through.
Essendon realistically would be hoping a Butcher or Talia is available. Maybe they will suprise and go the next best tall. I think they need talls more than they need mids. With Watson, Lonergan and Welsh, they have some tough onballers. Prismall and Stanton become their outside runners. Then they have the pace of their indigenous players.
I would be going tall. But how do you pass up on a guy meant to go top 5? Pretty hard to do. From a Collingwood P.O.V, this is good news as if they take an in and under, they may look taller in their next 2 picks which leaves Ball to slip through.
Melksham is the one linked to the Bombers at this stage. But I think if the draft goes as predicted by many, the Bombers will have a real look at Talia. Hurley moves forward with Gumbleton and Neagle and Williams. Pears, Fletcher and Danniher hold up defence. Getting Talia allows them to leave Hurley forward.
11. Mel - Jake Carlisle -
Would be hoping for one of Butcher or Talia to slide. But considering they are the only 2 talls being talked about as top 10 material, I think teams will snap them up early.
The theory is that talls are harder to acquire than smalls, so surely any tall of any quality will go early.
With 2 mids taken early, Melbourne are surely looking taller at this pick. He has flexibility to play multiple positions which will attract melbourne which is pretty much rebuilding from scratch.
But the Dee's saw last year that throwing Watts to the wolves was not smart. So they need to get another tall to help him out for the next 10 years.
They are in the market for Ball, but if they take him it will be at 18.
12. Carlton - Aaron Black
Many are linking him with Carlton. I agree. Unless Melbourne take him at 11. Obviously no more Fev so they need another forward. Their defence looks a lot better if Waite comes back into the side and Henderson can play back their too.
But without any talls up forward, both Waite and Henderson need to go forward. My feeling is Henderson will start forward, and Waite remain in defence.
Then Black becomes their future forward option. No need for a midfielder as their midfield is now complete with Brock Mclean. Keeping a pick in the first round was a good result.
13. Adelaide - Kane Lucas
Always the toughest one to chose. I think they'll go a midfielder. Their midfield is steady enough, but another one won't hurt. Their forward line will be built around Tippett and Walker...with Porps and Knights the lead-ups. It is dangerous enough.
They could use a defender to replace the ageing guys down back. But Otten stood up down back last year and they have a few others coming through as well.
With guys like Goodwin, Edwards and McLeod moving on in the next 2 years, they ened to rebuild the centre. They are strong across the park however.
14. Sydney - Koby Stevens
So they threw the draft out with Butcher early. But time to go back to a midfielder.
And this is why I think they can afford to go tall early. Guys like Stevens or Lucas or Melksham will be around at pick 14.
But talls like Butcher, Carlise, Talia and Black will not.
Good result for Sydney I reckon.
Let's mix things up a bit. Say Cunnington still goes to North, then Butcher goes to Port or Melbourne. Still allows good players to slide to this pick.
Perhaps Port go one of Lucas or Stevens. Then Tapscott falls to pick 13 where I think Adelaide take the local boy. Still leaves good players available.
Melksham is the other option for this pick. Also Shepphard. There are so many decent mids who could slot right into the Sydney gameplan this year. Good insiders.
Why waste a high pick on a mid and risk not getting a tall???
15. WB - Jake Melksham
Could go higher. But if available the Dogs will get him I reckon. I personally still think the Dogs need another tall. They have Hall for the next 2 years and have recruited a number of talls to fill the void. But considering they have so many midfielders already and no proven talls, it makes sense.
But based on this phantom, all the talls i rate highly are gone. So they go best available.
They'll be hoping to see some progress from Grant and Cordy next year so they live without another ruck or forward. Defence very solid.
The only suprise could be Griffiths. I think realistically it will be Carlisle who is likely to slide to this pick.
16. P.A- Matthew Panos
A really good result for Port. They get a mid, a forward and a defender. Fills the large holes in their side.
Panos doubles as a local boy which appeals as well. Dogs could suprise the pick earlier and take him if they want a lead up to compliment Hall. But a really accurate kicker, with good height and hands will appeal to Port who walk away from the 09 draft with a big smile. 2 local boys and the All Australia CHB.
17. Geel - Ryan Bastinac
Probably just best available for the Cats. I suppose they are ageing so it is not a bad idea getting another classy mid. Someone who can start taking the reigns in 3 years or so along with Selwood. There are a number of decent midfield options.
Realistically I was looking defence or another forward, and there are some options. But the Cats took Drum in the trade period and will get Hunt back, so that solves some issues down back. Really need Gamble to push through now.
More to come
Also, there are plenty of descriptions about players...so this draft looks at clubs needs and philosophies behind the pick etc, and not in depth descriptions about the player.
1. Mel - Tom Scully - Best player in draft. Logic says best player goes number 1.
2. Mel - Jack Trengove - Melbourne went a KPP last year with their pick 1, so will now complete their midfield. They will be hoping guys like Blease start coming on as well in the next few years.
3. Rich - Dustin Martin - Tigers looking to complete their midfield for the next 10 years.
4. Freo - Anthony Morabito - There is speculation going against it. But my logic says he is a local boy with as much talent as anyone in the draft. Sensible option with plenty of upside.
From here on in the explanations get more detailed
5. North - Gary Rohan
I think it will be Cunnington, but I just wonder if the Roo's need some X factor instead. They took Ziebell last year who looks a certainity to make it. Swallow had a great year last year as well winning their B&F. Liam Anthony is the ball-magnet. They still have Boomer but must start preparing for life after him. I think they need another hard bodied midfielder as well, but maybe they can get something a bit later on.
Hopefully for the Roo's Wells comes back and takes the tag. Leaves Rohan to start off up forward and really develop his game.
But odds are it will be Cunnington.
6. Sydney - John Butcher
Again, the odds of this happening are not high. But it makes sense to me. Despite the talk about his kicking, ultimately he is still the best KPF in the draft.
Sydney will have forward options next year in Bradshaw, White and Goodes. That will do next year, but beyond that Bradshaw has a max of 2 years and Goodes is getting closer to the end too and will still be required on the ball to open games up.
They have lost Hall and O'Loughlin and passed on Fev. Bradshaw is no more than a short-term fix.
The have holes in the midfield granted. But they have gone and got Kennedy and McGlynn. Vezpremi will move into the midfield eventually, but will start forward again as they work on his fitness and injury concerns. Kennelly is also back to add a bit of run from defence.
No, I think it should be a forward and Butcher is the best available.
This sends the draft order into chaos now.
7. WC - Lewis Jetta
I suppose i move away from my logic and go back to what is most likely to happen. Reports look increasingly solid that he will be the first mature aged player picked.
But let's get back to logic. They need someone of his type. He would start forward. They now have the talls in Kennedy, Lynch and McKinley. They have the rucks. They also add a midfielder in Dalziell, and will basically get a new player in Daniel Kerr back.
Jetta will become more a midfield option, but for now they could use someone with a good goal-sense and a bit of X-Factor. They lack that goal-sneak up forward.
8. Port Adelaide - Luke Tapscott
Before trade week I thought they'd go tall. But with both Burgoynes leaving they probably need to address a midfielder in one of their top 10 picks. Being an SA boy with no go-home factor should appeal.
It's tough because he is going a bit higher than guys like Cunnington who probably deserves to be a top 5 pick. But I think Port like local boys. They went Hartlett last year and were very keen to get pick 2 this year to score Trengove. With the turmoil within the club, I think they will play safe and go a local kid.
9. P.Adel - Daniel Talia
With 2 picks in the top 10, it is important they get a tall. Is the ideal height at 195 for a KPP. Teams in the last few years have taken good defenders early (Hurley, Nathan Brown). Port definitely need talls, and atleast Talia could potentially go forward or back. But I think he would be a back.
My feeling is Butcher will be available so they will take him. And this is why Sydney taking Butcher throws the draft into chaos.
There are holes in defence, but with Tredrea nearing the end they need a forward to.
10. Ess - Ben Cunnington
My feeling is that Cunnington will be taken at 5. But based on my draft, Cunnington becomes the victim of Sydney taking Butcher at 5. With West Coast committing to Jetta and Port committing to a local boy and a KPP, Cunnington slips through.
Essendon realistically would be hoping a Butcher or Talia is available. Maybe they will suprise and go the next best tall. I think they need talls more than they need mids. With Watson, Lonergan and Welsh, they have some tough onballers. Prismall and Stanton become their outside runners. Then they have the pace of their indigenous players.
I would be going tall. But how do you pass up on a guy meant to go top 5? Pretty hard to do. From a Collingwood P.O.V, this is good news as if they take an in and under, they may look taller in their next 2 picks which leaves Ball to slip through.
Melksham is the one linked to the Bombers at this stage. But I think if the draft goes as predicted by many, the Bombers will have a real look at Talia. Hurley moves forward with Gumbleton and Neagle and Williams. Pears, Fletcher and Danniher hold up defence. Getting Talia allows them to leave Hurley forward.
11. Mel - Jake Carlisle -
Would be hoping for one of Butcher or Talia to slide. But considering they are the only 2 talls being talked about as top 10 material, I think teams will snap them up early.
The theory is that talls are harder to acquire than smalls, so surely any tall of any quality will go early.
With 2 mids taken early, Melbourne are surely looking taller at this pick. He has flexibility to play multiple positions which will attract melbourne which is pretty much rebuilding from scratch.
But the Dee's saw last year that throwing Watts to the wolves was not smart. So they need to get another tall to help him out for the next 10 years.
They are in the market for Ball, but if they take him it will be at 18.
12. Carlton - Aaron Black
Many are linking him with Carlton. I agree. Unless Melbourne take him at 11. Obviously no more Fev so they need another forward. Their defence looks a lot better if Waite comes back into the side and Henderson can play back their too.
But without any talls up forward, both Waite and Henderson need to go forward. My feeling is Henderson will start forward, and Waite remain in defence.
Then Black becomes their future forward option. No need for a midfielder as their midfield is now complete with Brock Mclean. Keeping a pick in the first round was a good result.
13. Adelaide - Kane Lucas
Always the toughest one to chose. I think they'll go a midfielder. Their midfield is steady enough, but another one won't hurt. Their forward line will be built around Tippett and Walker...with Porps and Knights the lead-ups. It is dangerous enough.
They could use a defender to replace the ageing guys down back. But Otten stood up down back last year and they have a few others coming through as well.
With guys like Goodwin, Edwards and McLeod moving on in the next 2 years, they ened to rebuild the centre. They are strong across the park however.
14. Sydney - Koby Stevens
So they threw the draft out with Butcher early. But time to go back to a midfielder.
And this is why I think they can afford to go tall early. Guys like Stevens or Lucas or Melksham will be around at pick 14.
But talls like Butcher, Carlise, Talia and Black will not.
Good result for Sydney I reckon.
Let's mix things up a bit. Say Cunnington still goes to North, then Butcher goes to Port or Melbourne. Still allows good players to slide to this pick.
Perhaps Port go one of Lucas or Stevens. Then Tapscott falls to pick 13 where I think Adelaide take the local boy. Still leaves good players available.
Melksham is the other option for this pick. Also Shepphard. There are so many decent mids who could slot right into the Sydney gameplan this year. Good insiders.
Why waste a high pick on a mid and risk not getting a tall???
15. WB - Jake Melksham
Could go higher. But if available the Dogs will get him I reckon. I personally still think the Dogs need another tall. They have Hall for the next 2 years and have recruited a number of talls to fill the void. But considering they have so many midfielders already and no proven talls, it makes sense.
But based on this phantom, all the talls i rate highly are gone. So they go best available.
They'll be hoping to see some progress from Grant and Cordy next year so they live without another ruck or forward. Defence very solid.
The only suprise could be Griffiths. I think realistically it will be Carlisle who is likely to slide to this pick.
16. P.A- Matthew Panos
A really good result for Port. They get a mid, a forward and a defender. Fills the large holes in their side.
Panos doubles as a local boy which appeals as well. Dogs could suprise the pick earlier and take him if they want a lead up to compliment Hall. But a really accurate kicker, with good height and hands will appeal to Port who walk away from the 09 draft with a big smile. 2 local boys and the All Australia CHB.
17. Geel - Ryan Bastinac
Probably just best available for the Cats. I suppose they are ageing so it is not a bad idea getting another classy mid. Someone who can start taking the reigns in 3 years or so along with Selwood. There are a number of decent midfield options.
Realistically I was looking defence or another forward, and there are some options. But the Cats took Drum in the trade period and will get Hunt back, so that solves some issues down back. Really need Gamble to push through now.
More to come
