Prediction Destiny in Our Hands

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phantom13 said:
I said to mate on Saturday night there will be no excuses if we miss the 8 this year, its an even comp and we should be good enough, losses like Fridays kill us. We missed last year because of two f**king howlers by the Umps (North and Hawks games) if we don't make it this year we don't deserve it.

FWIW

Sydney Away (5%)
Port Away (10%)
WCE (60%)
Melb (75%)
Norf (90%)
Rich (50%)

My ladder predictor has us needing to beat Richmond to finish 7th, in which case we would seem them again week 1 of finals and we know how they tend to go week 1 of finals...
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At the start of the year, I had Saints fighting for the final 8 in round 23 against Richmond. Loser finishes at 9th spot.

Now, I am a bit iffy. Sydney is a loss. Port or Melbourne are the only 2 hopes of an upset, with wins against West Coast, North and Richmond my assumed ones.

The coaching team needs to lift
 
We won't be making the finals with 12 wins because of our terrible percentage (sound familiar?), so we need 13 wins, which should be enough.

I really struggle to see us getting 13 wins unless we manage to win one of the next two (winning four in a row at the end of the season seems a bridge too far) and of those Port at AO seems the more winnable. It sure as hell would be a great time to snap our horrible SA losing streak, but it's hard to see that happening.

Not writing off the season completely yet but I think we probably blew our chance on Friday night in an 8 point game.
 

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Impatient Saint said:
We are a working class side and when the workers dont turn up we are a bottom 4 side standard. Richo has to be accountable for these huge drop offs in form and effort.

Still not sold Richo can get the job done but seems he will get plenty of time to prove otherwise.
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Week is a long time in football

"The Saints have arrived they can truly believe the belong in the finals now. Exceptional win, best football the have played under Richo."
 
Mowman said:
same bloke who just said we are a working class side a bottom 4 side if we dont turn up
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Our form this year has been so up and down. I dont blame him. Its enough to drive anyone crazy.
Some of our younger group havnt come on as fast as we liked this year, compared to our preseason predictions.
 
If it comes down to % ...we wont make it. Our wayward kicking for goal has seen to that.

3 more wins MIGHT see us in..but it would be really helpful if they were to Melb WCE and Richmond, genuine 8 point games...as it denies them wins. Port and Sydney are going to make it regardless of whether we beat them or not.

We only play one more game against a side below us on the ladder, so its going to take a couple of big upsets to get there.

This weekends results were a perfect storm of awfulness for us. . 4 wins straight and seemingly a bit entrenched..one loss later and we are 9th with a thumping % gap to 8th.

If all games go with ladder position from here on in..we finish 11th with a big F for the season IMO
 
freebloke said:
Just an issue with some technical things with coaching. The team isn't dealing well with corridor focused teams, e.g. Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney, Dogs, Melbourne, etc.

Need to close up the corridor kick at half forward when opposition backs kick towards the center / corridor when faced with the saints midfield phalanx. Maybe have the forwards hold back in the corridor to cut off these kicks / or have the defenders force a kick down the line rather than a kick towards the corridor (corridor kick allows an easy switch).

Fix it, and Saints can win the premiership this year (barring injuries/suspensions). Not fix it... and miss the finals.
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Can you give Richo a call please!
 

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St Significant said:
Can you give Richo a call please!
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Yeah.. right. I am just an obsessed fan like rest of the forum who has less football ability and knowledge than Richo's toenail (or even an Auskick kid in my case)! But Yes, I did tweet a bit of that to him. The only reaction I got so far is 1 like from a media dude. That's about the max of it.

It doesn't help because I can keep coming up with stuff like this, e.g.

vs Boundary teams, Saints are +236 points in 2017
vs Corridor teams, Saints are -244 points in 2017

Fix that bit, and get in the positive, and it means Saints can win against anyone.
 
sverik25 said:
We won't be making the finals with 12 wins because of our terrible percentage (sound familiar?), so we need 13 wins, which should be enough.

I really struggle to see us getting 13 wins unless we manage to win one of the next two (winning four in a row at the end of the season seems a bridge too far) and of those Port at AO seems the more winnable. It sure as hell would be a great time to snap our horrible SA losing streak, but it's hard to see that happening.

Not writing off the season completely yet but I think we probably blew our chance on Friday night in an 8 point game.
Click to expand...

It's interesting that the biggest two weeks of the season for us (I completely agree that we need to win 1/2) come with interstate trips. We'll learn a fair bit about the team these two weeks - I think we are quite well placed to win the Port game; we'll be getting Membrey back that week. Sydney are fantastic and are in top form but we know that they are beatable. Many things will have to go right for that match though. The first thing we need to do is find a way to curb Buddy's influence but that's way easier said that done.

Was Webster out last time we played Sydney? Possible Buddy match up?
 
lewdogs said:
It's interesting that the biggest two weeks of the season for us (I completely agree that we need to win 1/2) come with interstate trips. We'll learn a fair bit about the team these two weeks - I think we are quite well placed to win the Port game; we'll be getting Membrey back that week. Sydney are fantastic and are in top form but we know that they are beatable. Many things will have to go right for that match though. The first thing we need to do is find a way to curb Buddy's influence but that's way easier said that done.

Was Webster out last time we played Sydney? Possible Buddy match up?
Click to expand...

Jimmy would be giving up around 10cm on Buddy, so even though Buddy's marking isn't his strength, he would still be well out of his depth in that area.
 
saint66au said:
4 wins straight and seemingly a bit entrenched..one loss later and we are 9th with a thumping % gap to 8th.
Click to expand...
Stating the obvious but that's why we absolutely had to win Fri night.........it was absolutely crushing that we didn't.
 
freebloke said:
vs Boundary teams, Saints are +236 points in 2017
vs Corridor teams, Saints are -244 points in 2017
Click to expand...
Very...very interesting stats there freebloke.
 
Impatient Saint said:
We are a working class side and when the workers dont turn up we are a bottom 4 side standard. Richo has to be accountable for these huge drop offs in form and effort.

Still not sold Richo can get the job done but seems he will get plenty of time to prove otherwise.
Click to expand...


I was speaking to a guy who's nephew played at the Pies in the Malthouse era and has had a bit to do with AFL clubs about coaching. He reckons the senior coach is the guy who develops the game plan and creates a brand or a vision but the line coaches or various assistants have more to do with the motivation and following of structural stuff. The senior coach would address them at the video reviews and probably watches the training for issues but the assistants are probably the ones responsible for motivating them.
 
lewdogs said:
It's interesting that the biggest two weeks of the season for us (I completely agree that we need to win 1/2) come with interstate trips. We'll learn a fair bit about the team these two weeks - I think we are quite well placed to win the Port game; we'll be getting Membrey back that week. Sydney are fantastic and are in top form but we know that they are beatable. Many things will have to go right for that match though. The first thing we need to do is find a way to curb Buddy's influence but that's way easier said that done.

Was Webster out last time we played Sydney? Possible Buddy match up?
Click to expand...


It's a shame because Gilbert is the ideal Buddy foil, fast, defensive and will play off him when needed. We could do a Zac Dawson on White for turning up from the off season fat.
 
saint66au said:
If it comes down to % ...we wont make it. Our wayward kicking for goal has seen to that.

3 more wins MIGHT see us in..but it would be really helpful if they were to Melb WCE and Richmond, genuine 8 point games...as it denies them wins. Port and Sydney are going to make it regardless of whether we beat them or not.

We only play one more game against a side below us on the ladder, so its going to take a couple of big upsets to get there.

This weekends results were a perfect storm of awfulness for us. . 4 wins straight and seemingly a bit entrenched..one loss later and we are 9th with a thumping % gap to 8th.

If all games go with ladder position from here on in..we finish 11th with a big F for the season IMO
Click to expand...

What hurts is playing so well against the tigers, looking like finals contenders, then coming down with a thud with the Bombers smashing us. It's like hooking up with a mint piece of arse only to find out she gave you aids. Watching St Kilda on Friday night gave me aids.
 
Although our average losing margin sucks, in regards to fixing 'blowouts' - we largely did that. Worst losses all year have been margins of 57 & 61. To compare, Richmond's worst losing margins have been 67 (us!) & 76.

Mathematically we're still in it, but even four wins might not be enough - Essendon could conceivably win 5 of their last six (although I think they'll lose against GC at Metricon for some reason).

If we beat West Coast (should do) probably keep them to only three more wins so % again in play, particularly given their percentage isn't that crash hot. They are probably the wild card for mine, but I think with 12 wins they scrape in given they should beat up badly on Bris & Carlton at DS.

Melbourne to probably finish on 12 wins too but with better % than us unless the finger really gets pulled out.

Wouldn't worry about the doggies, their ceiling is probably 12 wins and current % worse than ours, with a tricky fixture for them to come.

So I guess that's a long winded way of saying, prediction from here is we probably finish 10th - on 12 wins same as EFC and Melbourne, but lower %. Having said that, even a closeish loss (> 3 goals) this weekend and I will still have hope.
 
Glen Buterol said:
What hurts is playing so well against the tigers, looking like finals contenders, then coming down with a thud with the Bombers smashing us. It's like hooking up with a mint piece of arse only to find out she gave you aids. Watching St Kilda on Friday night gave me aids.
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Oh Man lol

I got nothing i can say to that
 
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