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Analysis Do we have a forward line yet?

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BLUEALLTHRU said:
I think for Pickett he has always struggled to get to 100% fitness due to injuries and he and SPS will benefit a lot from Russell if they truly want it. Ability only takes you so far.....
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Professional AFL footballers should have the minimum level of fitnesses required. Ifan individual player is not interested nor motivate to do at least that for himself and his club, delist or trade them , allow the opportunity to another player with the desire and respect for our game .
 
HARKER said:
Fair point but let me ask you this; If the same personal accolades being adorned on Walsh were in play for Rankine, would that change your mind? i.e. Leadership, football IQ, commitment etc
We can't change the physical attributes as it's highly unlikely that Rankine will suddenly be able to run all day, but why shouldn't a Rioli or Betts be considered for the first pick in the draft, if it happens to be the missing piece of the puzzle?

We've both watched Rankine and probably both have the same concerns, which may just cloud our value of him a little.
Anyway, I'm arguing against myself to a degree as I'm much happier with us taking Walsh, but I feel there will be some weeks in April and May next year that some may be asking......"Why did we not take Rankine?" :)
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We could write a book on this Harks, will try and keep my response within the TLDR parameters

Valid question, but most of my initial analysis on a player is purely on field (yet that also starts to give you an indication as to a mindset).

I have 3 main categories, when assessing draftees
  • Xfactor/Freakishness (game changing attributes)
  • Ability to stem the tide
  • Team orientated (Consistency, 1%ers, positioning, sacrifice, tackling, ability to play multiple positions, etc)
IMO, Rankine only ticks the first (double tick actually). It is why I rate Walsh ahead of him, as he ticks the 2nd and 3rd and it is why I rate Smith ahead of both of them, as he ticks all of them.

As for the likes of Betts, taken as a mature age rookie, as were the likes of WC Ryan and Rioli, taken as mature age players with later picks, to give WC the last piece of the puzzle, xfactor. Cyril was different again, he was more of a midfielder through his junior days, than what Rankine has done.

I think we are traveling okay in the 3 categories, mentioned above, with some of our players. Cripps possess all 3, while Charlie and Fisher are not too far away. I am also bullish on both Dow and SPS being able to possess all 3.

I don't want to bag Rankine, as he is extremely talented, but I doubt any of the top 4 picks, will take him. Ironically he looks like ending up a Port who have just traded out a similar freakish, conditional player in Wingard, yet never threatened a premiership
 
Arr0w said:
We could write a book on this Harks, will try and keep my response within the TLDR parameters

Valid question, but most of my initial analysis on a player is purely on field (yet that also starts to give you an indication as to a mindset).

I have 3 main categories, when assessing draftees
  • Xfactor/Freakishness (game changing attributes)
  • Ability to stem the tide
  • Team orientated (Consistency, 1%ers, positioning, sacrifice, tackling, ability to play multiple positions, etc)
IMO, Rankine only ticks the first (double tick actually). It is why I rate Walsh ahead of him, as he ticks the 2nd and 3rd and it is why I rate Smith ahead of both of them, as he ticks all of them.

As for the likes of Betts, taken as a mature age rookie, as were the likes of WC Ryan and Rioli, taken as mature age players with later picks, to give WC the last piece of the puzzle, xfactor. Cyril was different again, he was more of a midfielder through his junior days, than what Rankine has done.

I think we are traveling okay in the 3 categories, mentioned above, with some of our players. Cripps possess all 3, while Charlie and Fisher are not too far away. I am also bullish on both Dow and SPS being able to possess all 3.

I don't want to bag Rankine, as he is extremely talented, but I doubt any of the top 4 picks, will take him. Ironically he looks like ending up a Port who have just traded out a similar freakish, conditional player in Wingard, yet never threatened a premiership
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Great stuff. Now We're talking football. :)
 

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bmaurizio said:
Professional AFL footballers should have the minimum level of fitnesses required. Ifan individual player is not interested nor motivate to do at least that for himself and his club, delist or trade them , allow the opportunity to another player with the desire and respect for our game .
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Shape up or ship out? I mostly agree; if you don't want it badly enough, then AFL is not for you.

However, I think people mature and develop at different times. We recruit kids very young. They deserve some time to mature (if not already there).

On top of that, players get some leeway when life happens (injuries, personal issues). But the leeway has a limit.

TL;DR - players should get a couple of chances to prove themselves. But if that's not enough, then sayonara.
 
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Arr0w said:
I have 3 main categories, when assessing draftees
  • Xfactor/Freakishness (game changing attributes)
  • Ability to stem the tide
  • Team orientated (Consistency, 1%ers, positioning, sacrifice, tackling, ability to play multiple positions, etc)
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I hope you don't employ a similar rating system for BigFooty posters :eek:

I'd be 0 out of 3! :p
 
Meh - Carlton's forward line is starting to look respectable now. All the kids need to do is play together in their positions week in week out for a season.

Murphy Charlie Cuningham/Fisher/SPS/Pickett
McGovern Harry Fasolo/Garlett/LeBois/Polson/Thomas

resting: Cripps/Kenendy/Dow

these blokes in bold are pretty much the starting crew.

We will have gone from nothing to a bit of competition for spots in 2019.
 
JustaBattler said:
Meh - Carlton's forward line is starting to look respectable now. All the kids need to do is play together in their positions week in week out for a season.

Murphy Charlie Cuningham/Fisher/SPS/Pickett
McGovern Harry Fasolo/Garlett/LeBois/Polson/Thomas

resting: Cripps/Kenendy/Dow

these blokes in bold are pretty much the starting crew.

We will have gone from nothing to a bit of competition for spots in 2019.
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We now have options which is great. Don't forget Setterfield who can go forward and take a grab. I have hopes for Kerr & TDK and with bigger bodies like Cripps Kennedy & Setterfield having stints up forward Charlie will get midfield time. He definitely wants to. Makes us very dangerous and hard to match up on
 
CJMB said:
Just on Silvagni.... I agree on him being a bit of a utility, at least at this stage of his career, but I'm not convinced he's necessarily needed if we have everyone fit and in form. We've actually got a fair bit of versatility in our other tall/3rd/medium players and I'd hazard a guess that his work at either end of the ground is comfortably shadowed by Mitch.

Charlie: key forward, high half forward, wing, inside mid pinch hitter?
Harry: key forward, ruck
Mitch: 3rd/high half forward, 3rd/intercept defender
Weitering: key back, intercept defender, chf if required
Marchbank: intercept defender, smaller key back, wing if required
Plowman: versatile defender (small-medium plus resting mids in particular), possible inside mid pinch hitter?
Doc: hbf, bp, intercept defender, mid
Willo: hbf, bp, wing
Macreadie: 3rd/intercept defender, key back (not gorillas yet), wing
Jones: key back, intercept defender, 'break glass in case of emergency' ruck
De Koning: key forward, hhf, ruck pinch hitter

Jack played a bit of midfield this year, and I'm hoping that's where he eventually transitions to as a player (in the same way Jobe Watson did), but right now we've already got a few bigger mids who can drift forward and take marks in Cripps, Kennedy & Setterfield, not to mention the medium/smaller types in Fish, Samo, Dow, Murph, Polson, Lang, etc plus hopefully the likes of O'Brien/Pickett/Garlett/Willo running up the wing and putting the ball in from 50.

I could be wrong but my gut says this is another development year for Jack and he plays about half the games in the NBs as an inside mid, learning the craft.
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It's not so much versatility we lack but the ability for players to be able to come off when they want knowing there is someone on the bench who can come on and take their place and do a really good job. a lot of that versatility is not something we really want to be using on game day. There's a difference between players being able to fill a role when they have to and players rotating through positions/roles as a part of the game plan. For the most of last season we didn't have that and it was a big part of why we had such a bad year.

Silvagni's biggest issue is his conditioning/physical maturity. His body just hasn't matured yet but when it does I think he could be quite good.

Rotation wise I think McKay and Curnow will change between full forward and Center half forward. Good half forwards, half backs and midfielders run equally as hard so there's nothing to gain by rotating players between those three areas unless your dominating and that's something we really should not rely on.

There are a lot of ways we can go with this, it's just going to come down to form and who has come on and who's fit in the end. I'm happy with the squad I can name but the bench is not overly easy to finalise.

I would be playing McKay deep forward a fair bit and rotating him with Curnow and the ruckman. Fisher is a player I would love to see play that deep forward pocket role and regularly pinch hit through the middle, 50/50. I would be trying to get some midfield time for McGovern, 5 minutes a quarter in the center switching with Cripps. If Docherty can find an opponent who is playing deep I would include him as a part of our on ball rotations as long as Simpson and Williamson are firing. All three are wing rotation options depending on how much they are doing in defence. Marchbank can go through the wings as well. Dow and O'Brien can play mostly wing I feel and change at times with the backs or forwards. Murphy fits into this equation too. If we can keep our half forwards, Half backs fresh and give our main midfielders a bit of a chop out now and then then we can really start to get a run on I feel.

Teams who have good rotations tend to finish games off strongly and teams who can rotate without it impacting their quality really have the advantage. I have not seen a Carlton side in the modern era that was strong in this area but hopefully this is what we are building towards.
 

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therubbernub said:
Well with the trade period done and dusted, and with it has gone a lot of our draft picks, leaving our prized #1 pick and some shrapnel . For all intents and purposes we have our list, except for one elite player. IMO that will either be Walsh or Rankine.

I am very torn about which we should take, because I see both as quite exceptional players . However one player stands out as being the logical choice- Rankine. Why? because he can help fill two holes in our list- he can be an elite forward with great evasive skills and elite goal sense, and simply, he has already shown that he can do things that other players cannot. But his skills can also translate very well into the midfield, and so he can also help fill that hole as well.

Walsh on the other hand is the super professional , consistent , high effort/commitment mid that any club needs. He is not irreplaceable as there are many midfielders that tick this box, but he is probably the least risky pick to get an elite player.

That said I always believe in the glass half full theory. In this case I believe that Rankine will deliver on his promise as a junior and become an amazing AFL player.

Which gets me to my point. IF we take Rankine , is our forward line just about complete? Consider the excitement of a half forward line consisting of -

RANKINE CHARLIE MITCH M

That is an elite half forward line in anybodies language. Even Rankine is capable of taking a decent overhead mark. I dont think too many people would argue, that this Half forward line up would be equal to any other teams.

Which leaves a Full forward line up of

FASOLO HARRY RESTING MID/ MURPHY

Now on his day Fasolo can be a real handful and Harry has shown heaps of potential

So just considering the forward line, Taking Rankine instead of Walsh , appears to have completed our future forward line. But as the saying goes, are we robbing Peter to pay Paul? Without Walsh, how does our midfield shape up? Well IMO there is some real depth developing there. I leave you with a proposed line up, where we have moved Docherty into the centre where he can play midfield and direct play and he is replaced with Newman.
I have LOB and Willow on the 2 wings, which I believe will allow them to utilize their elite disposal skills. The back 6 is similar to the past 2 years except for the addition of Newman, and hopefully with AR's help, they can all stay on the park. View attachment 578954
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yeh man, we are gonna pass on the best midfielder in the draft for a half forward
 
Our forward line can't win us games whilst our midfield is losing them week in week out. Every top end prospect looks good and interesting, but a can't miss long term midfield leader would seem too good to go past, unless someone brings us a sweet deal.
 
AlecDuncan said:
Cuningham. I'll keep saying it until I see it happen.
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That's a fair call.

He has played some of his better football up forward. Notably the game where he won his rising star nomination and kicked a couple of goals.

Doesn't seem to get flustered in front of the big sticks :)
 
Our forward line still needs a lot of work, but there's certainly some talent there.

At this stage I'm going with the following setup for round 1 against the Tigers:

HF: McGovern - Curnow - Murphy
F: Fisher - McKay - Fasolo

It's going to be great watching Charlie, H and Gov play together. All are very capable and dangerous tall forwards.

Some don't have him in there but I'll be very surprised if we don't see Fasolo in the senior side first up. Lost his way over the past few years, but has serious talent and hope he grabs this second chance with both hands.

Small forwards are a real weakness. Pickett and Polson are probably our two best options right now, but they are far from sure things, and I'd argue their best positions are ultimately elsewhere.

There's a huge opportunity here for Lebois, the most natural small forward on our list at the moment. Hasn't clicked for him yet, but we're keeping him on for a third year so we obviously rate him and we're giving him every chance.

Think it's likely we'll see one of Pickett or Polson in the forward pocket come round one, but I've got Fisher there for now. Not because I see him as a small forward but because in the absence of a clear option there I'm opting to go the extra mid rotation.

Sixth spot (half forward) goes to a resting mid too, I've put Murphy there because he's shown previously how dangerous he can be drifting forward, but it could be any number of others.

I have always said, the more players we can get kicking 20+ goals, the better we'll be. You don't necessarily need a dominant 70+ goal kicker to be a successful side, just need multiple targets who can chip in and hit the scoreboard.

If you look at most successful sides of the past decade or so, I reckon you'll find they had an average of about 6 guys who all finish up with at least 20 goals, and that's a number I'd like to head towards.

Charlie
Harry
Gov
Fasolo
Cripps
Fisher
JSOS
Murphy

Not all will get there of course but there's 8 guys who are certainly capable of pushing towards that 20 goal bar. If we can get them pushing towards that sort of range I'll be a very happy man.
 

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Jeremias said:
Our forward line still needs a lot of work, but there's certainly some talent there.

At this stage I'm going with the following setup for round 1 against the Tigers:

HF: McGovern - Curnow - Murphy
F: Fisher - McKay - Fasolo

It's going to be great watching Charlie, H and Gov play together. All are very capable and dangerous tall forwards.

Some don't have him in there but I'll be very surprised if we don't see Fasolo in the senior side first up. Lost his way over the past few years, but has serious talent and hope he grabs this second chance with both hands.

Small forwards are a real weakness. Pickett and Polson are probably our two best options right now, but they are far from sure things, and I'd argue their best positions are ultimately elsewhere.

There's a huge opportunity here for Lebois, the most natural small forward on our list at the moment. Hasn't clicked for him yet, but we're keeping him on for a third year so we obviously rate him and we're giving him every chance.

Think it's likely we'll see one of Pickett or Polson in the forward pocket come round one, but I've got Fisher there for now. Not because I see him as a small forward but because in the absence of a clear option there I'm opting to go the extra mid rotation.

Sixth spot (half forward) goes to a resting mid too, I've put Murphy there because he's shown previously how dangerous he can be drifting forward, but it could be any number of others.

I have always said, the more players we can get kicking 20+ goals, the better we'll be. You don't necessarily need a dominant 70+ goal kicker to be a successful side, just need multiple targets who can chip in and hit the scoreboard.

If you look at most successful sides of the past decade or so, I reckon you'll find they had an average of about 6 guys who all finish up with at least 20 goals, and that's a number I'd like to head towards.

Charlie
Harry
Gov
Fasolo
Cripps
Fisher
JSOS
Murphy

Not all will get there of course but there's 8 guys who are certainly capable of pushing towards that 20 goal bar. If we can get them pushing towards that sort of range I'll be a very happy man.
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can't put murphy on a hff
 
Jeremias said:
Our forward line still needs a lot of work, but there's certainly some talent there.

At this stage I'm going with the following setup for round 1 against the Tigers:

HF: McGovern - Curnow - Murphy
F: Fisher - McKay - Fasolo

It's going to be great watching Charlie, H and Gov play together. All are very capable and dangerous tall forwards.

Some don't have him in there but I'll be very surprised if we don't see Fasolo in the senior side first up. Lost his way over the past few years, but has serious talent and hope he grabs this second chance with both hands.

Small forwards are a real weakness. Pickett and Polson are probably our two best options right now, but they are far from sure things, and I'd argue their best positions are ultimately elsewhere.

There's a huge opportunity here for Lebois, the most natural small forward on our list at the moment. Hasn't clicked for him yet, but we're keeping him on for a third year so we obviously rate him and we're giving him every chance.

Think it's likely we'll see one of Pickett or Polson in the forward pocket come round one, but I've got Fisher there for now. Not because I see him as a small forward but because in the absence of a clear option there I'm opting to go the extra mid rotation.

Sixth spot (half forward) goes to a resting mid too, I've put Murphy there because he's shown previously how dangerous he can be drifting forward, but it could be any number of others.

I have always said, the more players we can get kicking 20+ goals, the better we'll be. You don't necessarily need a dominant 70+ goal kicker to be a successful side, just need multiple targets who can chip in and hit the scoreboard.

If you look at most successful sides of the past decade or so, I reckon you'll find they had an average of about 6 guys who all finish up with at least 20 goals, and that's a number I'd like to head towards.

Charlie
Harry
Gov
Fasolo
Cripps
Fisher
JSOS
Murphy

Not all will get there of course but there's 8 guys who are certainly capable of pushing towards that 20 goal bar. If we can get them pushing towards that sort of range I'll be a very happy man.
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Has Fisher played as a small forward before?
 
What's everyone's predictions for goals assuming all games played?
Charlie 35
McKay 30
McGovern 25
Fasolo 20
Is this an unreasonable prediction?

On 2nd thoughts maybe it's too conservative for at least Charlie and Harry given their goal tally last season. How about 40 and 35 respectively?
 
skadoosh said:
Has Fisher played as a small forward before?
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He spent most of his debut season forward of centre where his pressure game really stood out. Barely set foot in the midfield.

This year we saw him transition into the midfield and I expect that to continue, but I think he has the speed, skill and game sense to be dangerous when resting forward.

Given we don't have a clear cut small forward option, my preference is to start the year with an extra mid who can add to the rotations.

All of Fisher, Murphy and Lang can spend time forward of centre, and we'll also see Garlett, Pickett and Polson given opportunities.
 

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Analysis Do we have a forward line yet?

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