Draft Balance

[-VC-]

firstly this speculation about strength of the draft is just rubbish. That will be judged in 5-10 years. If it was an exact science we'd be stuffed anyway, most of our good players are rookied/PSD or taken after pick 30 (except for Burton, Reilly and maybe Douglas)

Of course it will be judged down the track, but of course you can speculate about the strength of a draft. If you can project any individual young player (say Bryce Gibbs) as a gun player of the future then you can project others of his age. Some won't make it, some that you don't expect will make it, but for the most part you can get an overall sense of what sort of draft you're looking at.

12 months ago the players that were looking like late round selections for the most part were better players with more upside than the players in contention for those late spots this year.

 

[Mismatched]

firstly this speculation about strength of the draft is just rubbish. That will be judged in 5-10 years. If it was an exact science we'd be stuffed anyway, most of our good players are rookied/PSD or taken after pick 30 (except for Burton, Reilly and maybe Douglas)

...

Why could we not sort Welsh situation out one way or other pre trade week? We would have got something for him. Or was Rendell and co outsmarted by the extraordinary Bulldogs footy dept yet again. In a pretty average last 6 weeks Rendell laughing about being left with pick 30 was the low point for me. Bring back Fantasia quick

Make some good points here mate, the draft is very much a raffle in certain ways, whilst you can control certain thing like picking the best performed players or fittest or run psychological tests, you can never be sure.

As for bringing Fantasia back, at the moment that would seem a good idea, however, lets wait until the draft is over, never know, Rendell might bring it all to the table on draft day.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

cousins.....

I assume this is a joke.

Why would we bring someone with serious issues into the playing group, when we have lost 2 players because of their off-field issues? Would make a mockery of the club's stance.

With Welsh's departure, I think there is a a strong possibility we will go after a mature age forward.

 

[Cap]

I assume this is a joke.

Why would we bring someone with serious issues into the playing group, when we have lost 2 players because of their off-field issues? Would make a mockery of the club's stance.

With Welsh's departure, I think there is a a strong possibility we will go after a mature age forward.

was a joke

 

[Vader]

Thanks for that Vader, but I am still a little confused. Did it used to be that a percentage of their salary was included under the veteran's list and not included as part of the main salary cap? Otherwise what on earth is the reason for having a veteran's list? Seems a bit silly to just have a special name for your older players on your list with no other benefit.

The introduction of the rules regarding Veterans has two benefits to the clubs - a reduction in the salary cap pressures, and the ability to have up to two more (experienced) players on the playing rostrum.

The easiest part of this is the salary cap side, so I'll deal with that first.

There are no limits to the number of veterans each team can have, however, for salary cap purposes the law of diminishing returns is applied. 50% of the respective salaries are excluded from the cap if a club has 1 or 2 veterans. If a club has 3 veterans, then they only get a 33% discount. Footscray had 4 veterans last year, receiving a 25% discount on each. For salary cap purposes, it doesn't matter whether a veteran is "inside" or "outside".

The list size is another matter. Each team has two lists - the main list (38 players) and the "supplementary list" (for want of a better name) of 6 players. Veterans can be either "inside" (on the main list), or "outside" (on the supplementary list). The supplementary list positions not occupied by veterans are used for the rookie list.

Each team is permitted to have a maximum of 2 veterans outside the main list, with no limit to the number of veterans inside the main list.

Given this, there are 3 possible permutations for the supplementary list:
0 outside veterans, 6 rookies
1 outside veteran, 5 rookies
2 outside veterans, 4 rookies

It is commonly thought that rookies cannot play in the H&A or Finals series unless they have been promoted to the senior (main) list, taking the place of a player who has been placed on the long term injury list. This is almost true, but not quite so.

Teams who have less than 2 outside veterans (ie 1 or 0) can "nominate" 1 or 2 rookies (depending upon the number of outside veterans). Nominated rookies can be played in the H&A & Finals games, the same as main list players, without the need for an LTI related promotion. Effectively this means that (barring injury & suspension) all teams have 40 players eligible for selection each week, regardless of the number of veterans they have outside the main list (otherwise teams with veterans would be advantaged by effectively having a larger playing list than non-veteran teams). Michael Jamison has been announced as a "nominated rookie" for Carlton next year. The advantage that teams with "outside veterans" have over "nominated rookie" teams, is that the outside veterans are (by definition) 30+ year old 10 year players, while the rookies are almost always inexperienced teenagers.

For the sake of completeness, I should also mention that Sydney & Brisbane also have an additional 3 rookie positions. These rookies MUST be drafted from their local area, and are taken before the main rookie draft commences.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

I for one am pretty sure Adelaide will do the right thing and not look for quick, knee jerk fixes. Chambers, Sambi etc no way. Pick 75 isnt the most exciting pick but we may just find a jem. We are due for some draft luck and hopefully the club can turn a negative into a positive. Its going to be exciting times at the club in the next 2 or 3 years and there isnt a better time to be a young lad at the club. We might not be premiership contenders but we are going to have a whole new breed of guns coming through. I for one dont think you have to be a 1st round pick to be a star, you need oppurtunities which our club has been guilty of not supplying in the past. Like last year when Gill who I now rate was thrown in the deep end, not due to gun performances in the sanfl but because of the clubs needs.. Or Griffin

 

[finn]

I for one am pretty sure Adelaide will do the right thing and not look for quick, knee jerk fixes. Chambers, Sambi etc no way. Pick 75 isnt the most exciting pick but we may just find a jem. ...I for one dont think you have to be a 1st round pick to be a star, you need oppurtunities which our club has been guilty of not supplying in the past.

don't agree with the first - often people get too hung up on age - the main questiion should be will the person dramatically improve the team. sure, leave the 32 year old people alone but given that the average life expectancy of an afl player is approx 5-6 years - a decent 25-27 year old playing in a lower impact and stressful environment should at least be able to eke out 5 years. they've generally got as much hunger due to having been left behind in their often chosen sphere. sampi is 23/24 - plenty of time to sort himself out - not that i'm saying adelaide should pick him up.

i agree totally with the second point however.

 

[fightingdreamer88]

FFS quit your whining and back the AFC to pick some gun talents.

 

[Ticktak]

Our first 4 picks need to be mid size players with LEG SPEED!!! There is enough talent in the top 38 to get 4 pacey players who will play 200+ games. We can use our first pick next year to get another key position player. Rendell, please don't pick Grimes! He is slow.
Players within our reach are:
- Arrowsmith
- Browne
- Dangerfield
- Deboer
- Ebert
- Greenwood
- Joseph
- Maric
- Motlop
- Vezpremi
- Whitecross
- Zaharakis
Pick 4 of these and eventually we wont lack pace in vital finals games!

 

[Mismatched]

Our first 4 picks need to be mid size players with LEG SPEED!!! There is enough talent in the top 38 to get 4 pacey players who will play 200+ games. We can use our first pick next year to get another key position player. Rendell, please don't pick Grimes! He is slow.
Players within our reach are:
- Arrowsmith
- Browne
- Dangerfield
- Deboer
- Ebert
- Greenwood
- Joseph
- Maric
- Motlop
- Vezpremi
- Whitecross
- Zaharakis
Pick 4 of these and eventually we wont lack pace in vital finals games!

Great point you make here Ticktak, only I would like to see 1 key position player in our top 4 picks, we have lost a number of key forwards this year and there is still no assurances Sellar, Tippet and Walker will make it, grabbing another key position player as insurance couldn't hurt. Perhaps a Gourdis or a Tarrant.

And btw, Deboer hasn't nominated.

 

[Markthirtytwo]

While I agree we need to take inside/outside mid size pacey players in the first three picks, there is a glaring lack of tall timber if something goes wrong in the next few years eg injuries, go home, retire/ get the sack, etc.

We need a ruckman as a project with pick 4 at least.

Tippett maybe as a backup but not as a first pick one.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Our first 4 picks need to be mid size players with LEG SPEED!!! There is enough talent in the top 38 to get 4 pacey players who will play 200+ games. We can use our first pick next year to get another key position player. Rendell, please don't pick Grimes! He is slow.
Players within our reach are:
- Arrowsmith
- Browne
- Dangerfield
- Deboer
- Ebert
- Greenwood
- Joseph
- Maric
- Motlop
- Vezpremi
- Whitecross
- Zaharakis
Pick 4 of these and eventually we wont lack pace in vital finals games!

Ebert and Greenwood are not exactly quick. They are not speedsters. If you are after a speedster look at Rioli but these guys are your average paced midfielders.

Anyway, some pretty strong rumours doing the rounds that Ebert will be picked up by Melbourne as apparently Bailey is a huge fan.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

We definately need leg speed in our top four picks, but not all four, I think thats going a bit overboard. A key forward must surely be picked up in our top 4 and if a decent ruckman slips through would be surprised if we didnt grab him. But as the cliche goes, Best player available!

 

[-VC-]

Our first 4 picks need to be mid size players with LEG SPEED!!! There is enough talent in the top 38 to get 4 pacey players who will play 200+ games. We can use our first pick next year to get another key position player. Rendell, please don't pick Grimes! He is slow.
Players within our reach are:
- Arrowsmith
- Browne
- Dangerfield
- Deboer
- Ebert
- Greenwood
- Joseph
- Maric
- Motlop
- Vezpremi
- Whitecross
- Zaharakis
Pick 4 of these and eventually we wont lack pace in vital finals games!

Pace isn't Grimes' outstanding attribute, but I wouldn't call him slow. I've seen him make Scott Selwood look like he was standing on the spot and Selwood is considered to be reasonably quick. His endurance is absolutely elite and he is a ball magnet, but needs to fix up his kicking. He also has fantastic leadership skills and he seems to be the Captain everywhere he plays - Northern Knights, Vic Metro U/16 and U/18. When you look at it that way those two attributes resemble a couple of our favourite draftees from 2004. With that said, I don't think it'll be relevant. He wouldn't address our immediate needs at #10 and he will be gone by #27. I actually expect him to be a bolter on draft day.

As for the others that's a great list of guys I'd like to see at our club for the most part. Arrowsmith, no thanks. We'll have just ridded ourselves of Jericho and while Arrowsmith is more talented I rate him as just as soft. Fantastic athleticism, but he is so outside that at the Nationals he was almost up in the Carlton Social Club next to me looking for a possession.

 

[macca23]

The first 4 picks 10, 27, 30, 38 must be maximized in their value, as they form part of the foundations of the rebuilding process we are currently undergoing.

My mix for these 4 picks would be

2 mid-fielders - one with genuine pace and skills and another with genuine inside grunt.

1 crumbing forward with speed, evasiveness and skills.

1 KPP with versatility - preferably a forward, but capable of also playing back.

With pick 58 I would cut Freo's lunch and take Keplar Bradley to be used as a tall HFFer etc. Freo have 2 picks 64 and 74 after this and wouldn't be counting on us doing this with us still having one live pick at 71, excluding pick 75 to be used on Taylor Walker.

That leaves us with pick 71 to be either saved for the PSD or used on draft day for a speculative pick such as Aish or Jared Petrenko who has had a shoulder reconstruction and is 6 months away from playing (but has great speed and is tough as tungsten for a little fella).

My preference would be to take a speculative pick from the best talent available as I can't see what we will get out of the PSD in terms of recycled players.

One thing I will say since Craig has been in charge, we have been very good at not flagging in advance who we are likely to take in the draft.

Apart from an obvious choice or two with pick 10 if they are available, one can only guess what the other picks might be - and be very wrong.

 

[Ticktak]

I think we all agree that our first preference is to stock the list with mid size players with pace and an opportunist forward. So I don't think it's taking it a bit far to pick 4 smalls with our first 4 picks. Look at Geelong with their 2001 draft; Bartel, Jonhson, Kelly & Ablett.
If we were to go with a KKP in our top 4 I would look long and hard at Andrew Krakouer later in the draft. I know we wont pick him up because the club will get so much crap about letting go Welsh because of his off field antics and then we get Krakouer. But if the club has balls and picks him up, they wont be disapointed. He can play. Not only is he quick and skillful but he tackles hard. I watched him closely in 2006 and he was the only guy trying his guts out at times that year. I'm glad I don't support Richmond. How could you keep Tivendale over Rodan & Krakouer. And Richo, that is another story...

 

[hugecannon]

I think we all agree that our first preference is to stock the list with mid size players with pace and an opportunist forward. So I don't think it's taking it a bit far to pick 4 smalls with our first 4 picks. Look at Geelong with their 2001 draft; Bartel, Jonhson, Kelly & Ablett.
If we were to go with a KKP in our top 4 I would look long and hard at Andrew Krakouer later in the draft. I know we wont pick him up because the club will get so much crap about letting go Welsh because of his off field antics and then we get Krakouer. But if the club has balls and picks him up, they wont be disapointed. He can play. Not only is he quick and skillful but he tackles hard. I watched him closely in 2006 and he was the only guy trying his guts out at times that year. I'm glad I don't support Richmond. How could you keep Tivendale over Rodan & Krakouer. And Richo, that is another story...

Sorry to say but Andrew Krakouer is a big, big no. No club will commit to a player with a court case like his hanging over his head, he's a real chance to be in jail by the time next season starts and if he goes down he won't be getting out any time soon.

 

[earlsta]

Last year we took 3kpp's and 2 midfielders, one with pace one with grunt.

Tipp
Sells
Gill
MaCayly Culkin
Cambell Soup

3 KPP'S!
I've got a feeling we'll get 2 this year, the rest midfielders/crumber, 1st pick is best available talent though.

Our draft picks this year is pretty impressive.
Two picks in the 2nd round, early pick in the third, not bad!
Should be able to get some good talent, watch Rioli go to us at #10.

No not a crumber...!

He'll be used for midfield burst pace .

 

[hey shorty]

Im not sure who we take at #10 but if Rioli is there id be jumping on him, provided Vez, Ebert or Palmer arent there but none of them will be IMO. This draft is pretty top heavy so all the guns will be at the start with very little left after #30. I actually wouldnt be surprised to see us pick up Pfeiffer again if theres nothing left for our last pick, I cant see us being involved in the PSD unless a guy like Collard is there.

 

[Crow-mo]

I don't know how you can ever really pretend there is such a thing as draft balance. given then high % failure rates, who knows what you're really going to end up with in the long run?

 

[vlbl]

Just wondering from the 7 picks we will have in the draft this year, providing we don't take any player in the PSD i would like to know what you guys though of the following players:

10 – Brad Ebert (Midfielder), 2/4/90, 188cm, 86kg – Port Magpies
27 – Andy Ottens (Utility), 15/5/89, 191cm, 88.8kg – Oakleigh Chargers
30 – Brendan Whitecross (BP/HBF/Wing/Mid), 25/1/90, 183cm, 79kg – Zillmere
38 – Tom McNamara (Utility/HBF), 29/4/90, 189cm, 84kg – South Adelaide
58 – Tom Rockliff (Small Fwd), 22/2/90, 180cm, 78kg – Murray
71 – Nick Salter (Fwd), 30/7/87, 188cm, 84kg – WWT
75 – Taylor Walker (3rd Tall Fwd), 25/4/90, 191cm, 84kg – Broken Hill

The only problem i have there is with Ebert being at 10. I cant see that happening especially every time i watch some of the footage from the carnival, where his presence and use of the footy looks really good. I have stated plenty of times that i do not think it would be a good idea to get rioli with 10, mainly because we need some stronger bodies in the middle with Goodwin soon to be gone.

If we don't get ebert at 10 i'm not too sure who would best fit us, i keep thinking bout Grimes/Myers as a possible pick at 10 if ebert isnt there. With the other picks i think having a utility like ottens could help us in the future mainly because he is just a ball magnet and can play all over the ground without ever looking out of place in any specific position (i know this could be a potential problem as he may not have a stable position, but i can see him as a 3rd tall either end of the ground in afl and maybe even in the middle).

I haven't seen much of Whitecross other then the carnival but from that and the stuff i've read he looks like a real a potential bargain at 30, mainly because of his raw talent and his work rate, just never gives up. Also he could play the johncock role in the future frreing up johncock to play in the middle or fix our ongoing problem of a crummer.

With McNamara i just picked him mainly because with basset most probably gone by the 2009 season he could fill that role perfectly and be a extremely quality running back. I see 2008 as a development year for him.

With Rockliff, i have to be honest i have never seen him play but from VC's write up i think he could replace bodey beautifully, as he seems to be a bit of a old fashioned footballer and knows how to kick goals. He could be a 30 goal a season crummer and a tough nut at that.

With 71 i think there is no doubt we would take Salter now with Welsh gone, just seen his games on ABC2 and he seems to be a very smart footballer who knows how to kick straight and can kick bags as well.

Would really appreciate some input on what you guys think if we ended up with these picks at the draft, because for me this would be the perfect realistic scenario and could form the base for the rebuilding. Cheers.

 

[Tails14]

The forward structure is so open this year and we seem to be lacking a key focal point to go to.With another season under his belt griffin and bock and mcgregor give some height with burton the x factor along with gill. Will the young guns sellar,tippett and walker get a look in early to see how the are progressing or do you go to jericho, etc. preseason form will allow NC to see how things are panning out and the draft itself does not hold many key forward options but the PSD has only got Bradley which is a decision the AFC will have to make.

 

[Ticktak]

vlbl, I really like your thinking process. However I would love to see with pick 27 that we grab someone with elite speed ie Joseph or get Maric if he is still available. The last time we had true speed through the midfiled was when Macca killed them in 97/98. I know it's not the be-all and end-all but it really helps come finals time.
I also feel the club are happy to try and fill the small crumbing forward position with late picks. It is such a specialists position and a huge hole in our squad so lets get serious and use pick 27 or 30 for either Maric, Riloli or Motlop.
I do agree about McNamarra but gee I'd love to see the club go a different route this draft. It would really bring some excitement into the whole club if we picked up quick midfielders & crumbers early in the draft. Also you never know McNamarra could still be there at 57 or even Bradley may be worth a shot there.
What do you think?

 

[macca23]

The forward structure is so open this year and we seem to be lacking a key focal point to go to.With another season under his belt griffin and bock and mcgregor give some height with burton the x factor along with gill. Will the young guns sellar,tippett and walker get a look in early to see how the are progressing or do you go to jericho, etc. preseason form will allow NC to see how things are panning out and the draft itself does not hold many key forward options but the PSD has only got Bradley which is a decision the AFC will have to make.

vlbl, I really like your thinking process. However I would love to see with pick 27 that we grab someone with elite speed ie Joseph or get Maric if he is still available. The last time we had true speed through the midfiled was when Macca killed them in 97/98. I know it's not the be-all and end-all but it really helps come finals time.
I also feel the club are happy to try and fill the small crumbing forward position with late picks. It is such a specialists position and a huge hole in our squad so lets get serious and use pick 27 or 30 for either Maric, Riloli or Motlop.
I do agree about McNamarra but gee I'd love to see the club go a different route this draft. It would really bring some excitement into the whole club if we picked up quick midfielders & crumbers early in the draft. Also you never know McNamarra could still be there at 57 or even Bradley may be worth a shot there.
What do you think?

Firstly re Tails quote, I agree that Bradley is the only recycled player we would be interested in and at just 22 years of age with 49 games under his belt, he's ready to realize his true potential in a new environment.

I'd pinch him prior to the PSD and cut Freo's lunch.

I dearly hope that Brad Ebert falls to our first pick, but wouldn't be overly upset with either Myers or Rioli in that order, as they both would give that speed that Ticktak is referring to.

It's probably over the odds for Rioli but he won't be there for our 2nd pick.

Assuming that we do nab a gun mid-fielder with our first pick I would be looking for a quality quick crumbing forward with our 2nd - if still available (might have been at #22 but we'll have a little laugh about that later if we miss out ).

 

[vlbl]

I would love to see with pick 27 that we grab someone with elite speed ie Joseph or get Maric if he is still available.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22548836-11088,00.html

Mate i agree with you totally with the fact that we look too one paced and even now otha then Macca we have no who can just burst through a pack (i have seen douglas do it once against the demons at aami 2006 and kick a great goal). I've put on the link to this years daft camp results and if u look at repeat sprints and 20 metre sprints u'll see a fella named Whitecross in the top 10 for both, and he recorded the same time as Joseph in the 20m sprint at 2.91sec (Just behind 3 of the freak athletes in this years draft in Gourdis, Grant and Gaertner). The reason i picked Whitecross is mainly because of the stuff i saw at the carnival, where he was finding the ball with ease. Yes, his disposal is sometimes questionable but as we saw with Knights the main thing is that the boy can find the ball and the coaching staff can fix disposal. I also like the flexibility he could bring and as DC results show he has pace to burn but maybe doesn't utilise it as much. Also his DC results show and i also noticed that he can run all day and has the endurance and speed to become a real class midfielder in the future.

Yeh with the crumming issue i would only use it on maric or motlop (don't think rioli would last til our 2nd round). I would take the former without a doubt if available at 27, with motlop i like the turn of speed he has but if i had a choice over him and whitecross i would take whitecross mainly because the future potential i see in him. I just think there are good enough player later on in the draft to fill our crumming role, but if maric is available i he's the only i would take in the 2nd round (rioli as well).

I know a lot of you on BF aren't to keen on us stocking up on tall/utility backmen i.e. Ottens (can play forward and midfield as well) and McNamara. I just think with basset coming to the end of his career very soon and stevens being an ok backmen, in the long-run we need to address that area sooner then everyone thinks.

I mean realistically if we get ebert and a raw midfielder we could set up the engine room for our next premiership assault. Then gather some tall utility types with strong bodies (every premiership team needs them) and our forward issues are slowly but surely being resolved. I personally see this draft as being very important to how we are going to be set up for the future, as we haven't have this many high picks in our history.