Rumour Draft Rumours 2025

[marcmurphy3]

Yep.

It’s been reported in the last week that we’re no certainty to take them.

I think we'll see more of this now the cost is higher.

 

[THE_GUN]

I heard/read Carlton are surprised by the lack of interest in their picks, think they might have been banking on a much hotter market

Weak draft and not many clubs with picks that have points that are happy to trade
GC , SYD , BRIS have the picks to satisfy the blues but they also have Academy players that require points

If i was Carlton i would be looking at going a very different direction and trading with Richmond 'IF' there is no bid at 1 & 2 for dean #3+#38 for #9 + #11

Go on a bidding spree with the GC/Lions players that pushes the dean bid out whilst bringing the later picks in
then take a top tier player and wear the deficit.
Atleast they get 2 top 5 players and they have coverage next year with 2 x 1st rounders anyway

 

[Keystone agony]

Carlton don’t have 46, and I doubt we’d be giving up both of those others.

North doing trade with blues aswell

 

[Keystone agony]

Why would carlton do that deal ?
1687 points - Ess In: 9,43,46,54
1708 points - Ess Out: 21, 27, 30

for 21 points ?
No Chance

If likely Zeke bid at 2 then would likely be

10, 40, 43, 51

For

20, 24, 27

But maybe your right

 

[Keystone agony]

Nah Carlton need those late points with ison and the points would need to favour them.
It would be something like 9 and 54 for 21 27 and 30.

Only if were not interested in both academies 54 would leave us well short for sweid and HEA

 

[THE_GUN]

If likely Zeke bid at 2 then would likely be

10, 40, 43, 51

For

20, 24, 27

But maybe your right

That to me is still a sh!t sandwich and they only end up with Dean & Ison for picks they got for TDK,JSOS,Curnow
If i was a Carlton supporter i would want something before the Dean bid and wear the cost of the deficit.
They have 2 x 1st rounders next year and could still get Walker and that should be the priority

 

[Keystone agony]

That to me is still a sh!t sandwich and they only end up with Dean & Ison for picks they got for TDK,JSOS,Curnow
If i was a Carlton supporter i would want something before the Dean bid and wear the cost of the deficit.
They have 2 x 1st rounders next year and could still get Walker and that should be the prpriority

I suppose its highly risky with picks 35, 40 and 51 (=633 points) for a pick 3 bid

A bid at 3 and 30 would be a 1700 pt deficit

Puts them in a very vulnerable position for Walker next year

Pies or crows may be interested in 9 but but maybe only for a specific player as mentioned and they wont know at a pick 3 bid

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Only if were not interested in both academies 54 would leave us well short for sweid and HEA

Maybe you will try and trade into the 2nd or 3rd round to get bid matching points?
If im Carlton im not trading 9 unless all of 21 27 and 30 or 21 30 and a future 2nd are involved.

As a side point if essendon get 9 i do wonder if they offer 6 and 9 to wce for 2? Depends how much they want duursma or CDT i suppose

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That to me is still a sh!t sandwich and they only end up with Dean & Ison for picks they got for TDK,JSOS,Curnow
If i was a Carlton supporter i would want something before the Dean bid and wear the cost of the deficit.
They have 2 x 1st rounders next year and could still get Walker and that should be the priority

The problem is i dont think Carlton can get ahead of the bid because a) Dean will get bid at 2 or 3 and b) none of the clubs above 9 want to trade back.
But it does show the supposed centrepiece of Sydney pick 11 for curnow isnt as good as they thought. If I was Carlton I wouldn't be prepared to move 9/11 unless im getting at least one extra future 1st in the deal (yes North will be bottom 4 next year but its still a future 2nd)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I suppose its highly risky with picks 35, 40 and 51 (=633 points) for a pick 3 bid

A bid at 3 and 30 would be a 1700 pt deficit

Puts them in a very vulnerable position for Walker next year

Pies or crows may be interested in 9 but but maybe only for a specific player as mentioned and they wont know at a pick 3 bid

Crows would be interested in 9 if sharp gets past essendon and melb but the problem as you say is they would only want to make that call on the clock at 8 and the call will have to be made before then.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

North weren’t in this a few days ago, allegedly. More likely Carlton aren’t getting the offers they hoped. Got to remember North were pretty much a guaranteed top 5 pick this year and they dangled it until the 20’s when Richmond took it last year. This is just the reverse side of that, the later first round didn’t all of a sudden get more valuable.

Shows how stupid Carlton were to trade curnow (and protest that Sydney's offer was so great because it included pick 11 and hayward) really. What a waste.
Carlton shouldn't be trading 9 or 11 without getting at minimum an extra 2026 r1 (not from you guys obviously but from say adelaide or whoever).
I would just keep 9 and 11 and wear the bid with 9 and let 11 move back if they cant do a better deal.

 

[perplexed]

Shows how stupid Carlton were to trade curnow (and protest that Sydney's offer was so great because it included pick 11 and hayward) really. What a waste.
Carlton shouldn't be trading 9 or 11 without getting at minimum an extra 2026 r1 (not from you guys obviously but from say adelaide or whoever).
I would just keep 9 and 11 and wear the bid with 9 and let 11 move back if they cant do a better deal.

The problem is 11 will get moved so far back it may not end up any better than doing these two trades, and worse if the bid comes at 4 or 5. If it is the best they can do, they may as well pick up an F2 if they can. Though they should find a way to get Essendon's F2 as well.

 

[marcmurphy3]

The problem is 11 will get moved so far back it may not end up any better than doing these two trades, and worse if the bid comes at 4 or 5. If it is the best they can do, they may as well pick up an F2 if they can. Though they should find a way to get Essendon's F2 as well.

Youre right. If Dean gets bid on at 3, and we pay with 9+11, pick 11 slides into the 30s. And that pick would almost certainly be eaten up by an Ison bid.

If the bid is 4 or 5, pick 11 would still slide to the 20s and probably get eaten up by an Ison bid.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The problem is 11 will get moved so far back it may not end up any better than doing these two trades, and worse if the bid comes at 4 or 5. If it is the best they can do, they may as well pick up an F2 if they can. Though they should find a way to get Essendon's F2 as well.

Maybe but they would have in that case been better to just keep curnow and use the tdk and silvagni bids to match the bids if this is all they could get from it.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I reckon clubs are trying to spook west coast to get Evans.

He'd have easily been the highest rated of our NGA if he'd played a full season.

Spook? We either match or we don’t. We don’t choose to take him

 

[Keystone agony]

Maybe you will try and trade into the 2nd or 3rd round to get bid matching points?
If im Carlton im not trading 9 unless all of 21 27 and 30 or 21 30 and a future 2nd are involved.

As a side point if essendon get 9 i do wonder if they offer 6 and 9 to wce for 2? Depends how much they want duursma or CDT i suppose

Yes this involves all of 21, 27 and 30 for 9 and some late points

 

[Penetrator]

Maybe but they would have in that case been better to just keep curnow and use the tdk and silvagni bids to match the bids if this is all they could get from it.

Better to keep Curnow ? So you would keep a 29 year old bloke with a fair injury history instead of trading him ? If we kept him how exactly would we get the highly rated Cody Walker next year with the new drafting rules to come into place ?

Another first in 2027 will also come in handy.

 

[bzparkes]

Spook? We either match or we don’t. We don’t choose to take him

We don't have the list spots for all 3 NGA/FS.

Evans was rated the highest early in the year before being injured.

May a club with a 2nd rounder and a later pick thinks if they can bid on Williams and we match, that'll increase their chances of successfully bidding on Evans later, especially presuming we match on any bids for Banfield.

Of course, they'd want to be happy to take Williams to begin with.

 

[Keystone agony]

Would Eagles not offer F2, 34 and 41 for 9 or 11 with maybe 54 thrown in

Maybe rules them out of T.Williams if a round 1 bid, but theyd only want to take 1 of the NGA/FS in this case anyway

Youd just think Carlton would prefer that over Essendons and Norths apparent offer for those picks

 

[txbyhull]

Would Eagles not offer F2, 34 and 41 for 9 or 11 with maybe 54 thrown in

Maybe rules them out of T.Williams if a round 1 bid, but theyd only want to take 1 of the NGA/FS in this case anyway

Youd just think Carlton would prefer that over Essendons and Norths apparent offer for those picks

No, we would not

 

[txbyhull]

Would Eagles not offer F2, 34 and 41 for 9 or 11 with maybe 54 thrown in

Maybe rules them out of T.Williams if a round 1 bid, but theyd only want to take 1 of the NGA/FS in this case anyway

Youd just think Carlton would prefer that over Essendons and Norths apparent offer for those picks

Lol sorry, in order to expand on this:

We will not be taking any more than 3 first rounders, and now that we are likely out of the running for Dovaston and Farrow both it wouldn't shock me to see us try and trade out of 13 as well if Saints blow their load early on mini Pou.

Chances we move a future pick are in the single digit %, given we likely (at the rate they're developing) have 4 tied prospects inside the top 2 rounds next year (don't quote me on that I am trying to recall whether or not D Shanahan is 2026 or 2027)

 

[marcmurphy3]

If WC wanted 9 they could trade 13+34 and promise to bid on both GC boys. Maybe add 48.

That would trump the Bombers reported offer if we believe the Eagles bid on Dean otherwise.

What that tells me is the Blues probably haven't rejected the Eagles. I suspect the Eagles now think they need 34+48 to match bids and are prioritising that over moving up the board.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Better to keep Curnow ? So you would keep a 29 year old bloke with a fair injury history instead of trading him ? If we kept him how exactly would we get the highly rated Cody Walker next year with the new drafting rules to come into place ?

Another first in 2027 will also come in handy.

Yes because you essentially traded him for a pick 11 thats gone for a future 2nd at best. And you got 2 other future 1sts that will be late and had to give back a bunch of seconds so the actual reade return was poor before you even factor in the salary dumping.
If that was the best you could do you were far better off keeping him for the rest of his contract.

 

[Keystone agony]

If WC wanted 9 they could trade 13+34 and promise to bid on both GC boys. Maybe add 48.

That would trump the Bombers reported offer if we believe the Eagles bid on Dean otherwise.

What that tells me is the Blues probably haven't rejected the Eagles. I suspect the Eagles now think they need 34+48 to match bids and are prioritising that over moving up the board.

14 + 31 = 1453

20, 24, 27 = 1911

Eagles cant add anymore as they need a pick for bid matching

Even if blues are handing us 43+51 (240 pts)

1911 - 240 = 1670 pts > 1453

 

[Danog]

Carlton can trade 9 and 43 to Essendon for 21, 27, 30

The Dean bid probably comes earliest at 3, after Uwland, so the trade with Essendon is more like 10 and 42 for 20, 25, 28. It gives Carlton an extra 374 points, and gives Essendon pick 42 for matching their NGA kids. If I had to guess, they'll match Sweid with this pick (which will come in with all the bid matching) and go into a slight deficit next year, and only take El Achkar if he's bid on after 37 (so he's essentially free)