Analysis Draft Strength

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Aug 25, 2020
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Thought I would start this thread to get peoples thoughts on how the drafts in recent times stack up against one another and where the 2021 draft sits among them in these early days. Figured it would be best to break it down into the three categories of ‘top candidate’, ‘top 10’ and ‘depth’ and giving them each a rating out of five (‘Very Weak’ to ‘Very Strong’).

Here is my crack at the last few (purely based mostly off memory of media/recruiters/draft watchers talk pre-draft at the time):

2017
Top candidate: Very Weak
Top 10: Average
Depth: Weak

2018
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Very Strong
Depth: Strong

2019
Top candidate: Very Strong
Top 10: Weak
Depth: Strong

2020
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Strong
Depth: Weak

2021
Top candidate: Strong?
Top 10: Weak?
Depth: Average?
 

PMBangers

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More than ever, we need to wait for the champs for the VIC kids to build some consistency and form before judging whether the class is strong or not, especially with both VIC teams looking convincingly the best in their 16s champs
 

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Marcel Proust

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More than ever, we need to wait for the champs for the VIC kids to build some consistency and form before judging whether the class is strong or not, especially with both VIC teams looking convincingly the best in their 16s champs
Sonsie mvp, Sinn, Andrews, Chesser, Hobbs, etc. Sound pretty good prospects
 
Aug 25, 2020
19
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North Melbourne
More than ever, we need to wait for the champs for the VIC kids to build some consistency and form before judging whether the class is strong or not, especially with both VIC teams looking convincingly the best in their 16s champs
More than ever, we need to wait for the champs for the VIC kids to build some consistency and form before judging whether the class is strong or not, especially with both VIC teams looking convincingly the best in their 16s champs
Yeah obviously as more information comes to light these will change, as does everyones draft boards. A rating out of 5 is pretty broad but useful to get a gauge on people's thoughts on how the draft is looking in those categories early days.
 

THE_GUN

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Im more really interested in the 10-40 range players

The cream will always be there but the quality of the range between 10-40/50 is where the improvement in quality should be this year with a year 'off' in Victoria
 

ROYAL EAGLE

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WA colts is too a very high standard this year even with the PSA boys playing school footy.
Best of i have seen for a long long time.
So I suspect if you draft a WA boy this year you will get quality.
There are so many kids playing too a higher level than normal, there will be plenty of bargains if you draft from WA this year.
 

GWS Goose

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Thought I would start this thread to get peoples thoughts on how the drafts in recent times stack up against one another and where the 2021 draft sits among them in these early days. Figured it would be best to break it down into the three categories of ‘top candidate’, ‘top 10’ and ‘depth’ and giving them each a rating out of five (‘Very Weak’ to ‘Very Strong’).

Here is my crack at the last few (purely based mostly off memory of media/recruiters/draft watchers talk pre-draft at the time):

2017
Top candidate: Very Weak
Top 10: Average
Depth: Weak

2018
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Very Strong
Depth: Strong

2019
Top candidate: Very Strong
Top 10: Weak
Depth: Strong

2020
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Strong
Depth: Weak

2021
Top candidate: Strong?
Top 10: Weak?
Depth: Average?
I think the 2017 draft has been a slow burn, some good players emerging from that draft. I think it is better than some are saying.

The 20-30 range in that year is stronger than Normal I'd say. (Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Noah Balta, Brent Daniels and Baily Fritsch among others)
 

TENACIOUS

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Thought I would start this thread to get peoples thoughts on how the drafts in recent times stack up against one another and where the 2021 draft sits among them in these early days. Figured it would be best to break it down into the three categories of ‘top candidate’, ‘top 10’ and ‘depth’ and giving them each a rating out of five (‘Very Weak’ to ‘Very Strong’).

Here is my crack at the last few (purely based mostly off memory of media/recruiters/draft watchers talk pre-draft at the time):

2017
Top candidate: Very Weak
Top 10: Average
Depth: Weak

2018
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Very Strong
Depth: Strong

2019
Top candidate: Very Strong
Top 10: Weak
Depth: Strong

2020
Top candidate: Strong
Top 10: Strong
Depth: Weak

2021
Top candidate: Strong?
Top 10: Weak?
Depth: Average?
Um OK...
So you rate Sam Walsh (2018 Top Candidate) as just strong...

Obviously you don't watch the game
 
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GWS Goose

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Um OK...
So you rate Sam Walsh (2018 Top Candidate) as just strong...

Obviously you don't watch the game
Strong in comparison to other number 1 picks is a good wrap and makes him an outstanding player (which he is)
There is always going to be a difference of opinion between strong and very strong comparing number 1 picks, it's like arguing great and greatest.
Having a go at him for saying he is strong is what one eyed fans who think everyone else is crap do
 

Davo-27

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Strong in comparison to other number 1 picks is a good wrap and makes him an outstanding player (which he is)
There is always going to be a difference of opinion between strong and very strong comparing number 1 picks, it's like arguing great and greatest.
Having a go at him for saying he is strong is what one eyed fans who think everyone else is crap do
I think its fair to say Sam Walsh is a very strong talent, out performing Cripps with little media hype, im a fan.
 

GWS Goose

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I think its fair to say Sam Walsh is a very strong talent, out performing Cripps with little media hype, im a fan.
He is a ripper, I'd have no drama if the OP went with him as very strong.
But going with strong , compared with other number 1s, who are usually very good players is probably equally valid, it's certainly not worth being criticized for
 
Aug 25, 2020
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North Melbourne
Um OK...
So you rate Sam Walsh (2018 Top Candidate) as just strong...

Obviously you don't watch the game
Firstly, as stated, these ratings were based how players were viewed pre-draft. I think Walsh was rated highly as the favorite for the number one pick but maybe not as much as others in the past, hence the ‘Strong’ rating.

Secondly, even if I were rating him as he is now (along with projecting his and other recent picks future careers) I still think there is a valid argument for this as his rating when comparing him to other number 1 picks. If you are comparing the past 10 years, I’d probably have him number 3 or 4 which would have him in the ‘Strong’ category of that group (with 1-2 being considered the ‘Very Strong’ candidates). Stretch this out to the last 20 years and I’d probably have him around the 5-6 mark, a rating that would put again him in this same category. I wouldn't say either of these positions among his number 1 pick peers would be considered outrageous, maybe he's a few spots higher or lower based on peoples options (which are often swayed by the teams people barrack for ;)).

I put this up as a thread more to get people’s opinions on how this upcoming is stacking up in those categories against previous years. Feel free to have a crack at it yourself if you like? Alternatively, you can just f**k off and go and scream “SAM WALSH GOOD” from whichever rooftops that pleases you :thumbsu:.
 

BrentFalks90

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The Top 10 this year is solid, but you would like to be a club in the first 7 picks that’s for sure.

Mid Range picks, you would like to find a good young mature player in that 19-21 age range.

The back end depth is a concern as there are not as many 18 years producing good statistics due to COVID slowing down their long term athlete development.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

huludicidal

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I am in complete disagreement with the proposed “weak” Top 10 rating for 2021.

The top 10 is going to look something like this:

1) Horne
2) Daicos
3) Sonsie
4) Sinn
5) Chesser
6) Callaghan
7) Roberts
8) Johnson
9) Rachele
10) Gibcus
With all of Williams, Fahey, Van Rooyen, Draper, Erasmus and Hobbs (and probably a couple of others who will inevitably bolt) a chance to break in to the 8-10 range with a strong burst to finish off this season.

This is an extraordinarily strong midfielders first round in my opinion, and one that I don’t believe anyone will look back on and say “that was a pretty weak or even average top 10”.

Horne and Daicos are absolutely off the charts. Both would be a deserving pick 1 in any year in recent memory.

Sonsie is a genuine match-winner. I’m taking him top 5 any year.

The fact that Pick 9 for instance will net a club one of Callaghan, Chesser, Roberts, Johnson or Rachele (unless the club with this pick likes Gibcus or Williams enough to pass on one or more of those mid types) is evidence enough of this. They’re all top 8 talents most years IMO.

So it’s a strong top 10 this year from where I sit, unless there’s some sort of weird requirement for elite KPP’s in a Top 10 for it to be considered strong. Personally I’ll take my chances on the potential next Dangerfield / Neale / Fyfe / Bont / Pendlebury / MacRae / Oliver / Petracca / Martin / Merrett / Parish / Boak / Cotchin etc over a KPP in the top 10 any day. Despite the slight renaissance of key forwards in 2021 due in no small part to “STAAANNNND”, it’s still a midfielder-dominated game.

I do agree that the depth of this year’s draft is average to weak though. Picks 35-60 will likely be a similar crapshoot to 2020.
 

the big lebowski

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I am in complete disagreement with the proposed “weak” Top 10 rating for 2021.

The top 10 is going to look something like this:

1) Horne
2) Daicos
3) Sonsie
4) Sinn
5) Chesser
6) Callaghan
7) Roberts
8) Johnson
9) Rachele
10) Gibcus
With all of Williams, Fahey, Van Rooyen, Draper, Erasmus and Hobbs (and probably a couple of others who will inevitably bolt) a chance to break in to the 8-10 range with a strong burst to finish off this season.

This is an extraordinarily strong midfielders first round in my opinion, and one that I don’t believe anyone will look back on and say “that was a pretty weak or even average top 10”.

Horne and Daicos are absolutely off the charts. Both would be a deserving pick 1 in any year in recent memory.

Sonsie is a genuine match-winner. I’m taking him top 5 any year.

The fact that Pick 9 for instance will net a club one of Callaghan, Chesser, Roberts, Johnson or Rachele (unless the club with this pick likes Gibcus or Williams enough to pass on one or more of those mid types) is evidence enough of this. They’re all top 8 talents most years IMO.

So it’s a strong top 10 this year from where I sit, unless there’s some sort of weird requirement for elite KPP’s in a Top 10 for it to be considered strong. Personally I’ll take my chances on the potential next Dangerfield / Neale / Fyfe / Bont / Pendlebury / MacRae / Oliver / Petracca / Martin / Merrett / Parish / Boak / Cotchin etc over a KPP in the top 10 any day. Despite the slight renaissance of key forwards in 2021 due in no small part to “STAAANNNND”, it’s still a midfielder-dominated game.

I do agree that the depth of this year’s draft is average to weak though. Picks 35-60 will likely be a similar crapshoot to 2020.
A draft watcher on our board expressed similar sentiment but more so it being a strong top 30 as opposed to top 10.

I’m not saying you won’t be proved correct but I just don’t see how you can say that at this point. For example you have Sinn at 4 and you must be going off no footy last year and a few nab league matches from this year where it doesn’t appear that he’s dominated. Similar comment re Sonsie. Most agree he has been average to good this year at best. Played poorly in the academy game and pretty good in his one vfl hitout (very good stats but there were still some question marks on his game).

It’s just a strange year for the vic kids and I don’t see many of the big names going in having done much to re enforce their standing (whether through lack of opportunity or average performance).
 

eDPS

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It’s too early to make a call on what part of the draft is the strongest. Feel the championships in September will help seperate the states players and hopefully give a better understanding of the first round at least. The fact there are players I have at this stage that I’d draft that are outside my top 40 is a promising sign at least.
 

briztoon

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A draft watcher on our board expressed similar sentiment but more so it being a strong top 30 as opposed to top 10.

I’m not saying you won’t be proved correct but I just don’t see how you can say that at this point. For example you have Sinn at 4 and you must be going off no footy last year and a few nab league matches from this year where it doesn’t appear that he’s dominated. Similar comment re Sonsie. Most agree he has been average to good this year at best. Played poorly in the academy game and pretty good in his one vfl hitout (very good stats but there were still some question marks on his game).

It’s just a strange year for the vic kids and I don’t see many of the big names going in having done much to re enforce their standing (whether through lack of opportunity or average performance).
I believe a lot of ratings for many of the Vic kids is based off their performances at the U16 championships.

Sinn and Sonsie were regarded as amongst the top 5 best performed kids at the U16 championships.
 

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