List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[morris086]

In terms of statistics, our turnovers per game are very similar to Hawthorn's. In fact there is nothing in it what so ever. Surprising isn't it? You probably don't believe me but here is a fact that creates perception, Hawks turn the ball over in areas where it is "defendable" where as we do it where it is impossible to defend and then blame the defense for leaking goals .

Do you have a link to the turnover stats? I had a look but couldn't find much. That's not surprising about Hawthorn, in a number of games that we lost this year it was the midfield that lost it for us rather than the defence. I'm really happy with how our defenders are going, they're are all young
and just need some more time to get experience, Hartigan included.

Again people also draw a relationship between lack of clean disposal and turnovers. This quite often is not correct as it is the decision making that leads to a turnover more often than a disposal. Great players have time and space and are not necessarily best kicks but they have enough time to sum up their options and more often than not pick the right one.

Just for the giggles, clanger count for each player for 2015 season

Matt Crouch - 3 clangers per game
Patrick Dangerfield - 3
Richard Douglas - 3
Rory Sloane - 3
Scott Thompson - 4

And for self combustion of this boards - Nathan van Berlo - 2

Just for my own clarification : Examples of clangers include

• Any disposal or deliberate knock-on that goes directly to an opposition player.[2]
• Any free kick conceded
• Dropped marks or fumbles under no pressure
• 50-metre penalties conceded
• A Ball-Up Kick In (Stepping over the line when kicking in after a behind)

Not surprising Thompson leads the clanger count, better ball users who are able to run and spread were just as big a need this off season as players with speed. With vb his clangers come when there is little
pressure, he isn't the only one though.

In comparison to our other midfielders in 2015, Matt Crouch is right with them in terms of clangers per game. In fact, his statistical indicators are all as good, if not better than our core midfielders from 2015 season. The kid is copping some unwarranted slack here. He will be a very very good player for us and has so much scope for improvement. Matt Crouch in year 2 and Matt Crouch in year 7 will be very different players.

I've got nothing against Bob and his development so far, he is already well on his way to being the Thompson replacement we will require.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Andrew Mcleod managed a good 8 years without knee cartilage.

Yeah and they played very different positions on the field and not to mention that one was 80kg outside runner in his later years and Burton is a 90kg tallish forward with defender breathing down his neck. The impact of jumping and landing a 90kg frame compared to a 80kg frame is pretty big. Not to mention that McLeod was an exception and a freak of nature. Who else has done what McLeod has? How is Cooney's career going? Who are the other AFL players that have played with bone on bone for a prolonged period of time where it did not impact them greatly?

There are none!

 

[Stiffy_18]

While I understand your point of view I think u are jumping to a few conclusions here. There was an interview with Jake Stringer in last few days who is in in NYC doing some complex trials and testing amongst other things. He was in a somewhat similar position to Burton injury wise. He had a breakout year this year, his third since injury but admited still restricted somewhat. He believes he's now & moving into next, his 4th year close to 100%...bit scary where his ceiling is.
I think Burton will be a similar player (better hands) and while some will argue Burtons injury is worse I think is worth a shot at 13. Even if takes 2 years to get regular, free moving senior football.
In a crazy world if Stringer was available during recent trade period, wouldn't most posters here have traded for Stringer with picks 9 AND 13?

They are different injuries! While Stringer broke his leg, his knee joint was intact. He also had all the cartilage in his knee. Burton not only snapped his leg, it also dislocated his knee cap and destroyed the cartilage in his knee that is not getting replaced. The hope is that the scar tissue will build up enough to provide some padding but no guarantees.

If it was the same injury as Stringer I would be a lot more optimistic. Burton's injury has done more damage. Not only has he broken a bone in his leg but he demolished the knee joint. A bigger concern for mine! If he had the same injury as Stringer, there would be clubs lining up to take him in the top 10, us included.

While the positive is worth a shot, what happens if he retires or is delisted 2 years from now because his knee cannot stand up to the rigors of AFL footy? We cannot afford to waste any of our picks this year. Failure is simply not an option for us.

 

[hey shorty]

While I understand your point of view I think u are jumping to a few conclusions here. There was an interview with Jake Stringer in last few days who is in in NYC doing some complex trials and testing amongst other things. He was in a somewhat similar position to Burton injury wise. He had a breakout year this year, his third since injury but admited still restricted somewhat. He believes he's now & moving into next, his 4th year close to 100%...bit scary where his ceiling is.
I think Burton will be a similar player (better hands) and while some will argue Burtons injury is worse I think is worth a shot at 13. Even if takes 2 years to get regular, free moving senior football.
In a crazy world if Stringer was available during recent trade period, wouldn't most posters here have traded for Stringer with picks 9 AND 13?

His injury was similar but worse and his recovery has been longer so far. Its starting to look like Hentschel for mine and it would be a huge shame if so.

Someone will take the gamble and I hope it pays off. I reckon if we miss Francis or Milera at 9 we will pick him at 13 still. IMO we will go 1 local, 1 interstater.

 

[Vader]

Anyhow, my apologies for derailing the thread. Let's get back to discussing picks #9 & #13...

 

[hey shorty]

Think we will go 1 local and 1 interstate kid with our picks. Have no real reason for this but I reckon there will be a good SA kid around at our picks and of course the best available will probably not be from here.

 

[Mismatched]

While I understand your point of view I think u are jumping to a few conclusions here. There was an interview with Jake Stringer in last few days who is in in NYC doing some complex trials and testing amongst other things. He was in a somewhat similar position to Burton injury wise. He had a breakout year this year, his third since injury but admited still restricted somewhat. He believes he's now & moving into next, his 4th year close to 100%...bit scary where his ceiling is.
I think Burton will be a similar player (better hands) and while some will argue Burtons injury is worse I think is worth a shot at 13. Even if takes 2 years to get regular, free moving senior football.
In a crazy world if Stringer was available during recent trade period, wouldn't most posters here have traded for Stringer with picks 9 AND 13?

As others have mentioned, Burton's issue is as much his ability to sustain AFL football, as it is his ability to return to 100% in the first place.

Hentschel's injury is probably the best comparison to Burton's injury that we have.

 

[Geoffa32]

The fact that you disagree with it doesn't make it crap. It just makes it unpalatable - quite likely an unpalatable truth.

Sadly, even very average players can win a BnF. Even Matthew Connell managed to win one. That doesn't make him a good player.

Woewoeden a Brownlow.....

Sent from my HTC_0P6B6 using Tapatalk

 

[Bicks]

Aaron Francis
Kieran Collins
Harry McKay
Darcy Tucker
Rhys Mathieson
Ryan Clarke
Clayton Oliver
Callum Ah Chee
Mitchell Hibberd
Harley Balic

Would also be putting in a bid on Brisbane Academy youngster Eric Hipwood who IMO is the 3rd best tall in this draft after Weitering and Schache........a better prospect than Harrison McKay IMO.

 

[deeztreez]

As others have mentioned, Burton's issue is as much his ability to sustain AFL football, as it is his ability to return to 100% in the first place.

Hentschel's injury is probably the best comparison to Burton's injury that we have.

Fair enough. Since we had Burton at the club for Academy week and surgeon is an explayer I'm sure we are best informed and researched more so than any other club. I trust the club staff that if we pick him..is done with confidence

 

[fabs33]

Yeah and they played very different positions on the field and not to mention that one was 80kg outside runner in his later years and Burton is a 90kg tallish forward with defender breathing down his neck. The impact of jumping and landing a 90kg frame compared to a 80kg frame is pretty big. Not to mention that McLeod was an exception and a freak of nature. Who else has done what McLeod has? How is Cooney's career going? Who are the other AFL players that have played with bone on bone for a prolonged period of time where it did not impact them greatly?

There are none!

He was also so elusive that he rarely got tackled.

 

[cammo6556]

Aaron Francis
Kieran Collins
Harry McKay
Darcy Tucker
Rhys Mathieson
Ryan Clarke
Clayton Oliver
Callum Ah Chee
Mitchell Hibberd
Harley Balic

Would also be putting in a bid on Brisbane Academy youngster Eric Hipwood who IMO is the 3rd best tall in this draft after Weitering and Schache........a better prospect than Harrison McKay IMO.

No Milera?

 

[Ozzie]

how many years would you be happy to get out of burton? presuming he won't have a long career without knee cartilage

As many years as McLeod and Cooney who both played and are playing with bone on bone. Clubs manage this type of condition very well these days. Say we only get 7/8 years out of Burton is that any different to Kane Johnson(7) or Voldemort(8)? He is an elite talent and we need that. Stiffy also questioned taking Burton and this answer is for him as well as you

 

[Ozzie]

As far as I am concerned outside mid is the only glaring need we have. Seedsman, Hampton and Wigg might not even make our best side, they certainly didn't show great form last year. Smith and Douglas had terrible years really and Smith was moved back to defence because he just didn't seem comfortable in the midfield. So actually we have zero outside mids and it was obvious last year that this was our glaring weakness. We have great talls at both ends and we have have great small forwards and defenders. We just don't have any speed and more importantly disposal accuracy through the midfield and drafting someone to hopefully be ready in 4 years to replace an area that we are already very handy in just makes no sense.

I just simply think you are wrong!

 

[Mego Red]

No, and not an oversight, not on the Milera bandwagon at all, time will tell if I'm wrong.......or right?

I was unsure about Milera, but he has some dominant stats when playing against folks his age - probably the best of his entire draft year.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

As many years as McLeod and Cooney who both played and are playing with bone on bone. Clubs manage this type of condition very well these days. Say we only get 7/8 years out of Burton is that any different to Kane Johnson(7) or Voldemort(8)? He is an elite talent and we need that. Stiffy also questioned taking Burton and this answer is for him as well as you

I'd rather cut down the odds when there are multiple talented options for us

Seb packer all those years ago , never played a game and could have been anything

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I was unsure about Milera, but he has some dominant stats when playing against folks his age - probably the best of his entire draft year.

Not too mention sanfl senior finals performances , something no other draftee managed this year and against teams like port magpies who were full of AFL listed players

 

[Ozzie]

I'd rather cut down the odds when there are multiple talented options for us

Seb packer all those years ago , never played a game and could have been anything

My response is this: these multi-talented options are better? Are you sure of that? Why drag up players that never made it? I could have been anything, but I failed because I simply couldn't play the game.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

They are different injuries! While Stringer broke his leg, his knee joint was intact. He also had all the cartilage in his knee. Burton not only snapped his leg, it also dislocated his knee cap and destroyed the cartilage in his knee that is not getting replaced. The hope is that the scar tissue will build up enough to provide some padding but no guarantees.

If it was the same injury as Stringer I would be a lot more optimistic. Burton's injury has done more damage. Not only has he broken a bone in his leg but he demolished the knee joint. A bigger concern for mine! If he had the same injury as Stringer, there would be clubs lining up to take him in the top 10, us included.

While the positive is worth a shot, what happens if he retires or is delisted 2 years from now because his knee cannot stand up to the rigors of AFL footy? We cannot afford to waste any of our picks this year. Failure is simply not an option for us.

Totally agree stiffy...having a fracture through the joint is about the worse fracture you can have let alone when it is a bunch of small fragments as it totally destroys the surface of the joint

With training loads so high these days and Burton's position as a likely high half toward being one of the most demanding running positions on the field ( watch how much ground lynch covers ) it is a massive risk

McLeod had multiple pre seasons under his belt when his problem surfaced so had a base fitness he was able to maintain as well as having an unbelievable natural physique with well developed musculature around the knee to protect the joint ...look how ripped his quads were if you ever see a picture

I think Burton will get picked up in the 20s to be honest , too much risk for a 1st rounder

 

[Pdub]

As many years as McLeod and Cooney who both played and are playing with bone on bone. Clubs manage this type of condition very well these days. Say we only get 7/8 years out of Burton is that any different to Kane Johnson(7) or Voldemort(8)? He is an elite talent and we need that. Stiffy also questioned taking Burton and this answer is for him as well as you

The difference is McLeod and Cooney in that it happened after they had established themselves as AFL players, it was OK for them to not train on their knees at all during the week and turn up game day because they were good enough players. Burton isn't in a position where he can make a career while never training during the season. Maybe one day he will be, but will his knee hold up until that point?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

My response is this: these multi-talented options are better? Are you sure of that? Why drag up players that never made it? I could have been anything, but I failed because I simply couldn't play the game.

History teaches us many things and we would be fools to ignore it

And yes there are other talented players in this draft without the risk associated

If it was an ACL or a stringer like fracture I'd say no problems ...I was all for lever last year but this is a different scenario

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The difference is McLeod and Cooney in that it happened after they had established themselves as AFL players, it was OK for them to not train on their knees at all during the week and turn up game day because they were good enough players. Burton isn't in a position where he can make a career while never training during the season. Maybe one day he will be, but will his knee hold up until that point?

They also had a base fitness and neuromuscular memory from multiple pre seasons

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Aaron Francis
Kieran Collins
Harry McKay
Darcy Tucker
Rhys Mathieson
Ryan Clarke
Clayton Oliver
Callum Ah Chee
Mitchell Hibberd
Harley Balic

Would also be putting in a bid on Brisbane Academy youngster Eric Hipwood who IMO is the 3rd best tall in this draft after Weitering and Schache........a better prospect than Harrison McKay IMO.

Agree re hipwood !! Definitely under selling milera bicks , what did he do to you ?

I'd have him 3rd option preference after Francis and McKay

 

[lunacy]

how many years would you be happy to get out of burton? presuming he won't have a long career without knee cartilage

Well I'm not saying that's a certainty.

Selwood slid because he had "degenerative knees", but he'd still going strong. Mcleod and Burgoyne similar.

Again, I wouldn't want us to select him if they thought he'd only have 5 yrs in him. But if they're 80% sure he'll be ok, I'm in.

I just think his talent is quite a bit greater than those likely to be available at 13 and they all have some different risks associated with them too.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

As has been pointed out, his high DE is due to him making short kicks and handballs which have almost zero hurt factor attached to them. When he tries kicking it longer, it almost invariably ends up in the hands of the opposition. Crouch is the anti-Brodie Smith (a player who hurts the opposition by kicking the ball accurately over long distances, to the benefit of his teammates). I know Crouch is an inside mid, and Smith is an outside HBF, but Crouch is frequently hurts us more than he helps us with his poor disposal.

Crouch's poor disposal is the reason he slipped to #23 in his draft. He's always been a ball magnet and if his usage of the ball even closely matched his ability to win it then he would have gone much, much higher. Sadly, nothing has changed in that aspect since the day he was drafted. He still wins the ball with ease, then either does nothing with it or turns it over.

Wait to the kid has a full pre season and more power to buy some time and space to use the ball better , think things will change