List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[Jeffcrowe]

Highly doubtful bet you never know

As we know the top 5 doesnt become the top 5 so you never know

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Highly doubtful bet you never know

Is it me or does McKay move a bit like a young JPod?

 

[crowsarethebest]

Wouldn't you think if had plans to take a KPD, that we would have taken M.Talia as a FREE Hit?

The knock on Michael is he gets monstered by the big forwards and is more suited to the 3rd tall role which we already have a plethora of options for... (Lever, Otten, Shaw, Cheney, Hendo). We need more guys that can handle the big boys cause if Hartigan or Talia go down we'd be looking at Lever on Tom Hawkins- I reckon in time Lever can play on the big guys but in his 2nd year he won't be strong or big enough to handle the big bodies over the course of the season.

 

[Vader]

Wouldn't you think if had plans to take a KPD, that we would have taken M.Talia as a FREE Hit?

Depends on whether they wanted a depth KPD, or one who might actually find his way into the best 22. Depends on how they see Hartigan really, and I think they see enough to persevere for now.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Depends on whether they wanted a depth KPD, or one who might actually find his way into the best 22. Depends on how they see Hartigan really, and I think they see enough to persevere for now.

Collins is the same height as Lever .......why oh why do we still feel the need to draft a KPD ....we've got him already

 

[Vader]

For example, if Matt Crouch (who I don't think has poor disposal, but let's use him as an example), kicks long to a contest involving Eddie Betts on Jeremy McGovern that's spoiled by McGovern, this is considered an "effective" disposal to a "50/50 contest" despite the fact that McGovern v Betts is not a great contest.

The way I see it the situation you've described is a decision making failure, not a kicking failure. The problem with Matt Crouch is that he'll often kick the ball long, missing the target by 5m and putting it to the advantage of the opposition.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

The knock on Michael is he gets monstered by the big forwards and is more suited to the 3rd tall role which we already have a plethora of options for... (Lever, Otten, Shaw, Cheney, Hendo). We need more guys that can handle the big boys cause if Hartigan or Talia go down we'd be looking at Lever on Tom Hawkins- I reckon in time Lever can play on the big guys but in his 2nd year he won't be strong or big enough to handle the big bodies over the course of the season.

Lever is stronger and smarter than Hartigan ......don't let physical mass determine strength

Hartigan has poor centre of gravity and often loses balance in one on one contests

 

[Bicks]

Oh Bicks look a dare, are you going to do it or are you chicken?

I don't dance to WW's tune, not now, not ever.....in fact like a lot of other AFC supporters on this board I find him to be the most irritating and self opinionated poster on the AFC Big Footy board.

I put up a list in order of who I personally would take in the draft a few pages ago just like others have using the "limited" resources I have at my disposal, and I'm not alone there.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

The way I see it the situation you've described is a decision making failure, not a kicking failure. The problem with Matt Crouch is that he'll often kick the ball long, missing the target by 5m and putting it to the advantage of the opposition.

He's not Robinson Caruso in that regard ......IMO Maturity will rectify some of those issues with M.Crouch

 

[Scorpus]

The way I see it the situation you've described is a decision making failure, not a kicking failure. The problem with Matt Crouch is that he'll often kick the ball long, missing the target by 5m and putting it to the advantage of the opposition.

Well that's an ineffective kick unless it's a true 50/50 contest (eg. the players are close to the ball and the ground ball pickup is contested)

 

[huludicidal]

Nice insight

Any reason why you have Mathieson listed as a possible at 8 but not predicting anyone take him before or including us at 13 despite having players picked (e.g. Tucker) who you dont think are in the mix at 8? Ie why do you see Mathieson as in the mix for us at 8 but not Tucker yet us taking Tucker at 13 even Mathieson is in the mix (I know nothing about either so I'm guessing Mathieson could be a KPP and you dont think we would take 2 KPP)

Mathieson is an inside mid. He's viewed by some as an elite ball winner who is a sure fire bet to succeed at afl level, but seen by others as lacking skill and athleticism.

I don't think there is any chance that we'll select him with our first pick, purely because it's a 100% certainty that one of Francis, McKay, Oliver and Milera will be available.

I think all of Gold Coast, Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton have more of a need for a player of Mathieson's type than us, and therefore one of those clubs could pull the trigger on him before pick 9. Is it likely? No. But it's possible.

Basically, Mathieson could go anywhere between pick 5 and 20. Just because he's potentially in the mix for us at 13 doesn't mean he's definitely available.

David Noble has stated publicly that our first selection will be the 'best available' and our 2nd selection will be more of a 'needs based' pick. I don't see expect Mathieson to be the player our club considers best available at 9, and I don't see him filling a need as well as Tucker (if we take Francis or McKay at 9) or Burton (if we take Milera or Oliver at 9) might at 13.

Purely my opinion though. For all I know we rate Mathieson as the 4th best player in the draft and we're hunting a clearance beast to "replace" Dangerfield.

 

[Scorpus]

So let's think about these picks rationally.

Before our first selection, 8 non-academy kids will be drafted.

What we know for a virtual fact at this stage (barring a late injury) is that 5 of those 8 selections will be Weitering, Schache, Parish, Weideman and Curnow.

This leaves 3 more to be selected. Francis, McKay, Oliver, Milera, Mathieson and Collins appear among the most likely. Maybe there's a late bolter. Who knows.

To me, the worst case scenario for us is that these 3 remaining selections before ours are Francis, Milera and Oliver (just my opinion, not the AFC's I'd suggest). If this does happen, we'll surely take H McKay, who the club appears to be very keen on, so that hardly seems like a disaster. Personally I'm not a fan, but who knows. Maybe he'll develop into a star. I'd love to see us take any of Francis, Oliver or Milera ahead of McKay (in that order) if we have the opportunity though. If we take anyone else here I'll be stunned.

Now, there's actually only two non-academy selections between our picks 9 and 13. One to Carlton and one to Richmond. It appears pretty likely that Richmond will take Ah Chee - every year they are linked to someone and every year they select that player - at this stage Ah Chee seems to be their guy. If McKay is still on the board he'll go to the Blues but they may have already taken him with their previous selection, or maybe we've already got him by this stage. Either way, McKay ain't there at 13.

So it's probably likely that we'll be looking at one of Tucker, Mathieson, Hibberd, Collins, Balic, Cole, Gresham, R Clarke, Burton, Bonner or Partington here. A few of those probably won't even come into calculations at all but whatever.


So all things considered, I like any of the following outcomes the best:

Francis and Tucker
Oliver and Burton
Oliver and Tucker
Milera and Burton

However, I think by far the most likely outcome is probably:

McKay and Tucker

I can't get excited at all about H McKay at our first selection but our development of talls is second to none so I won't be too displeased with this result. I personally think Tucker can turn into a highly productive midfielder with dash (more than "just another half back flanker") so I reckon he's great value with our second pick.

I also think the club is ideally looking to take a mid and a forward with the two picks, and this will only change if Francis drops to us.

Less than two weeks to go now until arguably the most important draft in our club's history.

I suspect Carlton will take McKay at 8 knowing we might pick him at 9 (and therefore he won't slide to 10) and they need a key forward. In that situation I think we'll take Oliver and possibly Tucker, Burton or a similar type

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't dance to WW's tune, not now, not ever.....in fact like a lot of other AFC supporters on this board I find him to be the most irritating and self opinionated poster on the AFC Big Footy board.

I put up a list in order of who I personally would take in the draft a few pages ago just like others have using the "limited" resources I have at my disposal, and I'm not alone there.

Bicks ...it's called "the Ignore " function ......feel free to use it mate

Mmmm a Big Footy poster with an opinion .....what will they think of next

Not game to rank your preferences in your signature hey Bicks ......want an escape clause iam imaging ...that's ok, many hear hate to be wrong so never actually put it on the line
Always a bit each way so you have the ability to never be wrong

 

[Vader]

I like both. but if we would compare them as inside midfielders lets see

Lyons is better at first touch of ruckmans hand.
Lyons is a better kick
Lyons is cleaner

But lets write him off as the previous coaches prefered to play the 27-30 year olds instead of a developing 19, 20, 21, 22 year old. That is to be expected. Unless the kid is a top 10 pick

He is 23 next year. I would like this to be the year that Thommo, VB MAckay step aside for B Crouch, M Crouch and Lyons.

Lyons 2012 played 3 games
2013 played 9 games
2014 played 10 games
2015 played 13 games

So he has improved in games played each year. I am hoping that this year now the sub rule has gone (thank God) he will show us all what he is capable of.

Both have deficiencies.

Lyons is very slow (slower than Crouch) and lacks endurance. His kicking is arguably more accurate, but is rarely used to attack and rarely kicks long distances. You could argue that's a positive - he plays to his limitations and doesn't allow his weakness to be exposed. At his age he needs to be good enough to demand selection for more than 13 games per season, many of which were in the green vest (i.e. 22nd player selected). He isn't.

Matt Crouch is younger, fitter and (marginally) quicker. He gets more of the ball. He generally hits targets by hand and foot (at short range), though his longer range kicking is more than a little bit suspect. Crouch is only 20 and he's already gone past Lyons, and will only improve further.

Lyons has been on the list for 5 years and played 35 games, Matt Crouch has been on the list for 2 years and played 25 games. There is a good reason for that discrepancy, and it's not because Lyons has been denied opportunities. It's because he hasn't been good enough to demand them.

2015 needs to be the year we draft some high quality midfielders, so that we're not dependent upon below average players like Lyons when Thompson goes off into the sunset. 2016 needs to be the year that Brad Crouch emerges from the injury ward, stepping up to become the player we all know that he can be (an absolute gun), if he doesn't then losing Dangerfield is likely to be terminal to our chances of making the finals.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

So let's think about these picks rationally.

Before our first selection, 8 non-academy kids will be drafted.

What we know for a virtual fact at this stage (barring a late injury) is that 5 of those 8 selections will be Weitering, Schache, Parish, Weideman and Curnow.

This leaves 3 more to be selected. Francis, McKay, Oliver, Milera, Mathieson and Collins appear among the most likely. Maybe there's a late bolter. Who knows.

To me, the worst case scenario for us is that these 3 remaining selections before ours are Francis, Milera and Oliver (just my opinion, not the AFC's I'd suggest). If this does happen, we'll surely take H McKay, who the club appears to be very keen on, so that hardly seems like a disaster. Personally I'm not a fan, but who knows. Maybe he'll develop into a star. I'd love to see us take any of Francis, Oliver or Milera ahead of McKay (in that order) if we have the opportunity though. If we take anyone else here I'll be stunned.

Now, there's actually only two non-academy selections between our picks 9 and 13. One to Carlton and one to Richmond. It appears pretty likely that Richmond will take Ah Chee - every year they are linked to someone and every year they select that player - at this stage Ah Chee seems to be their guy. If McKay is still on the board he'll go to the Blues but they may have already taken him with their previous selection, or maybe we've already got him by this stage. Either way, McKay ain't there at 13.

So it's probably likely that we'll be looking at one of Tucker, Mathieson, Hibberd, Collins, Balic, Cole, Gresham, R Clarke, Burton, Bonner or Partington here. A few of those probably won't even come into calculations at all but whatever.


So all things considered, I like any of the following outcomes the best:

Francis and Tucker
Oliver and Burton
Oliver and Tucker
Milera and Burton

However, I think by far the most likely outcome is probably:

McKay and Tucker

I can't get excited at all about H McKay at our first selection but our development of talls is second to none so I won't be too displeased with this result. I personally think Tucker can turn into a highly productive midfielder with dash (more than "just another half back flanker") so I reckon he's great value with our second pick.

I also think the club is ideally looking to take a mid and a forward with the two picks, and this will only change if Francis drops to us.

Less than two weeks to go now until arguably the most important draft in our club's history.

Don't think you will have to worry as I see H McKay going to Carlton at 8...Reckon he is on top of our board , but we may end up with Francis which is a blessing
Smoky for our 9 is taking milera before Francis , wouldn't do it myself but not the worst result
Very sure that the type of player we get at 9 will effect our choice at 13
Ie don't think we would take milera and then tucker ...or francis then hibberd

If we somehow could take McKay at 9 and still have either milera or Francis at 13 then I will be over the moon but can't see it

Don't even know if Burton is even in discussion , have a feeling he slides to the second round

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I suspect Carlton will take McKay at 8 knowing we might pick him at 9 (and therefore he won't slide to 10) and they need a key forward. In that situation I think we'll take Oliver and possibly Tucker, Burton or a similar type

Weideman is the lynch pin to how the draft order could be thrown around .....if he slides, Carlton would take him at #8

However Carlton have lost Judd .....will Carlton take two KPP in the top 10 rather than use one to take a midfielder?

Again if Weideman slides to Melbourne at #7 and Carlton take a Mid ......my gut says McKay will be available .....is he a pick 9 though or will we take a good mid if available in preference?

 

[Vader]

He's not Robinson Caruso in that regard ......IMO Maturity will rectify some of those issues with M.Crouch

He's far from Robinson Crusoe.. but his problems are worse than many.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Don't think you will have to worry as I see H McKay going to Carlton at 8...Reckon he is on top of our board , but we may end up with Francis which is a blessing
Smoky for our 9 is taking milera before Francis , wouldn't do it myself but not the worst result
Very sure that the type of player we get at 9 will effect our choice at 13
Ie don't think we would take milera and then tucker ...or francis then hibberd

If we somehow could take McKay at 9 and still have either milera or Francis at 13 then I will be over the moon but can't see it

Don't even know if Burton is even in discussion , have a feeling he slides to the second round

Do you think Carlton will take two KPP in the top 10?

 

[huludicidal]

I suspect Carlton will take McKay at 8 knowing we might pick him at 9 (and therefore he won't slide to 10) and they need a key forward. In that situation I think we'll take Oliver and possibly Tucker, Burton or a similar type

Carlton are obviously a big chance to take McKay at 8 I agree. But what if the choice is between McKay and Francis? Or McKay and Oliver? It's highly possible that they rate the other guy higher. Their midfield outside of 3 guys (Murphy, Cripps, Gibbs) is pretty awful.

I hope they do take him. It guarantees us one of Oliver, Francis or Milera which is pretty awesome from where I sit. I'm actually starting to like Oliver just as much as Francis. Milera is a bit more of a risk, but he could become a genuine winger with pace and skill which is certainly something we could use.

 

[Red mist]

I think we should take Riley Bonner with 13. He will make it easy, can play midfield back and forward. Has a great kick and would slot in nicely, also offers great flexibility. With him, smith Seedsman and Hampton, I think they could rotate though half back wing and half forward.
This kid is gonna make it

I hear you.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He's far from Robinson Crusoe.. but his problems are worse than many.

Given iam a BIG Shaw fan ......iam going to give M.Crouch the same allowance on his disposal given the # of games he has played

Now if the issue is still apparent after 50 games then it's a real issue

 

[Vader]

Collins is the same height as Lever .......why oh why do we still feel the need to draft a KPD ....we've got him already

My preference (and a very strong preference at that) is to take 2x mids. I don't see us taking a KPD at all. Just trying to explain the rationale why they might.

 

[Bicks]

Bicks ...it's called "the Ignore " function ......feel free to use it mate

Mmmm a Big Footy poster with an opinion .....what will they think of next

Not game to rank your preferences in your signature hey Bicks ......want an escape clause iam imaging ...that's ok, many hear hate to be wrong so never actually put it on the line
Always a bit each way so you have the ability to never be wrong

I respect other people's right to an opinion even if I disagree......you however.....

Just for you I've gone back and copied and will paste it here again my thoughts on who I would like us to draft.....no doubt you'll disagree of course...

Aaron Francis
Kieran Collins
Harry McKay
Darcy Tucker
Rhys Mathieson
Ryan Clarke
Clayton Oliver
Callum Ah Chee
Mitchell Hibberd
Harley Balic

Would also be putting in a bid on Brisbane Academy youngster Eric Hipwood who IMO is the 3rd best tall in this draft after Weitering and Schache........a better prospect than Harrison McKay IMO.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I hope they do take him. It guarantees us one of Oliver, Francis or Milera which is pretty awesome from where I sit. I'm actually starting to like Oliver just as much as Francis. Milera is a bit more of a risk, but he could become a genuine winger with pace and skill which is certainly something we could use.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

My preference (and a very strong preference at that) is to take 2x mids. I don't see us taking a KPD at all. Just trying to explain the rationale why they might.

I agree we won't take a KPD .....and two mids are a distinctive possibility .....an inside/out and outside/in mids would be great

Oliver and Milera

Oliver and Burton ....preying it's a good diagnosis on his leg