List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[Danoz]

Has that been confirmed that Academy players bid on in the top 10, will go up on stage as part of the official top 10

Why wouldn't they? They'll still be picked in the top 10 picks.

 

[Bring back Bas]

For arguments sake, what would people think of Gresham at 13 if we got Francis or McKay at 9.

Not bad around stoppages but still uses the ball well?

I am warming to this idea. For a long while I didn't even consider him because I was under the impression that he is a midget but he is 178cm - that is only 2cm shorter than Richard Douglas which is nothing really. He sounds like Riley Knight type from the bit I have read. Does anyone know anything about Gresham?

 

[Captain Furious]

You need two KPDs and we have three.

You need nine quality mids. We have maybe four.

I think the need is pretty obvious.

Which team has 9 quality mids? None.

Which club only has 2 KPDs? Only us.

 

[CrouchPotato]

We do need some to step up from:
Lyons, M Crouch, Ellis-Yolmen, Atkins, Grigg, Knight, Gore, Hampton

Hampton - reckon he will step up
Atkins & Knight - might, both looking good
CEY - still optimistic on him
Gore - unsure
Lyons, M Crouch, Grigg - just can't see it

 

[RippaRiley43]

If no team bids a first round .....Sydney, GWS, and Brisbane will get the first round player as a 2nd or even 3rd round pick, like the old father/son.

Need a bid to keep the value of the Academy player correct

Why? The net effect is that Sydney is getting Mills for a handful of picks in the 30s (which nobody would normally trade for a top 5 pick), so what difference does it make if Mills goes to Sydney for pick 33? Other teams won't get Mills, even if they bid, so there really isn't any point bidding.

 

[Captain Furious]

Why? The net effect is that Sydney is getting Mills for a handful of picks in the 30s (which nobody would normally trade for a top 5 pick), so what difference does it make if Mills goes to Sydney for pick 33? Other teams won't get Mills, even if they bid, so there really isn't any point bidding.

Agree. Doesn't help us in any way.

And of course clubs will collude to not bid on players in return for swapped picks. AFL can say all they like but totally impossible to prove.

First year of the system and clubs took advantage of it, obviously. Will change.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Hampton - reckon he will step up
Atkins & Knight - might, both looking good
CEY - still optimistic on him
Gore - unsure
Lyons, M Crouch, Grigg - just can't see it

I wouldn't put Crouch in the same category as those.

 

[RippaRiley43]

1. Because if, for example, GWS have to pay a lot more for Hopper and Kennedy, they will have less opportunity to pick up players at the lower end of the draft, meaning if they'd intended to get another couple of academy kids, they may not be able to.

I don't think this is necessarily true. Let's assume Brisbane have three empty spots on their list (idk if that's true). Pick 2 is Schache, but then nobody bids on Hipwood or Keays, allowing them to be taken at 38 and 39. Brisbane will then pass their next three picks because their list is full, and they intended on using those picks 38-42 on Keays and Hipwood. Everyone else effectively moves up the draft order, same net result.Other teams do also benefit from the set-up, as it allows them to take Sydney/Brisbane/GWS's earlier picks in exchange for later ones which will be used for matching bids. Is this the "collusion" that they're talking about?

2. Because the bidding teams may think the academy player is the best/better player they can get at that pick. It won't happen, but if someone thought Mills was worth pick 1, but Sydney didn't want to pay that much, then they bidding team would get him.
It's all about making sure clubs don't get A-grade players for nothing, like everyone else was allowed to do in the past.

You have a point here, true, but the system is still stupid, as nobody would ordinarily trade pick 1 for a bunch of picks in the 30s. The whole F/S and Academy system should be scrapped, it's not like we've benefited from it anyway

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Why? The net effect is that Sydney is getting Mills for a handful of picks in the 30s (which nobody would normally trade for a top 5 pick), so what difference does it make if Mills goes to Sydney for pick 33? Other teams won't get Mills, even if they bid, so there really isn't any point bidding.

this year is worse because it's shallower, but there's still a point, sydney have picks in the 20's and 30's which could be used on other players if bids don't come early. If a club makes a bid and sydney match, the club who made the bid lose nothing, but ensure sydney use most of their picks to match for him.

 

[FAITH]

id take either and hopefully both, there's just something special about Milera, the way he destroyed those SANFL teams in the finals was special.

 

[Bacon8]

Why? The net effect is that Sydney is getting Mills for a handful of picks in the 30s (which nobody would normally trade for a top 5 pick), so what difference does it make if Mills goes to Sydney for pick 33? Other teams won't get Mills, even if they bid, so there really isn't any point bidding.

Sydney have 5 spots to fill in the draft.

If no-one bids on Mills, Sydney use 33, 36, 37, 44 & 54

If Melbourne bids #3 on Mills - Sydney pays 1788 pts, which is Picks 33, 36 & 37, with 44 moving to 64

So to fill their other 4 spots, they need to draft with 54, 64, 69 & 72.

Which is better for other clubs?

 

[Elite Crow]

Sydney have 5 spots to fill in the draft.

If no-one bids on Mills, Sydney use 33, 36, 37, 44 & 54

If Melbourne bids #3 on Mills - Sydney pays 1788 pts, which is Picks 33, 36 & 37, with 44 moving to 64

So to fill their other 4 spots, they need to draft with 54, 64, 69 & 72.

Which is better for other clubs?

So if no one bids they just use 33?

 

[Mismatched]

Think both are great gets .....Milera a bit more "X" factor ......Francis that big bodied utility / potential midfielder

You'd have to be happy with either

Absolutely you would, personally I think there's more X-Factor to Francis.

 

[RippaRiley43]

Sydney have 5 spots to fill in the draft.

If no-one bids on Mills, Sydney use 33, 36, 37, 44 & 54

If Melbourne bids #3 on Mills - Sydney pays 1788 pts, which is Picks 33, 36 & 37, with 44 moving to 64

So to fill their other 4 spots, they need to draft with 54, 64, 69 & 72.

Which is better for other clubs?

Thanks. So it's mostly beneficial to place a bid if you know another team has a lot of spots on their list to fill. Still haven't completely figured out this system, so thanks for the clarification.

 

[Scorpus]

So if no one bids they just use 33?

Yes

Thanks. So it's mostly beneficial to place a bid if you know another team has a lot of spots on their list to fill. Still haven't completely figured out this system, so thanks for the clarification.

It's beneficial to place a bid at true player value (eg. 3 for Mills) to ensure the club has to pay market value. If they take him at 33 their later picks remain intact, giving them the potentially to draft other players from better picks. If they are forced to pay pick 3, they won't have later picks (and potentially will have a reduced selection of picks in the following year)

 

[Cleric]

He's probably better than or equal of shache at the same age , be careful writing off 17 yr old key forwards or any 17 yr old 200cm player

Compare Hogan as an underager to McKay or Danaher.

 

[1990crow]

Don't get the hate for Harry McKay. Better than Dear at 17 so with 2 or three years development who knows he may be one of the better key forward prospects in the AFL. Blokes like McCartin, Boyd and Co haven't really stamped themselves yet.

 

[GrommoT]

Thanks. So it's mostly beneficial to place a bid if you know another team has a lot of spots on their list to fill. Still haven't completely figured out this system, so thanks for the clarification.

Like what Scorpus just said, I posted this previously:

GWS is probably a better example to use (as based on the AFL's phantom draft guide, GC don't have a very highly rated draft prospect) but the important thing is teams with picks 1 to 9 must have a go at bidding for Hopper rated a pick 5 prospect.

If not, then GWS could use their pick 10 to pick another top prospect - say Burton or some other gun. Then if Carlton use pick 11 to bid for Hopper, GWS can then match that bid with their next picks (to make up the points) and also get Hopper at pick 11. So instead of getting only one top draft prospect, they would get 2! I think they have enough first round picks already FFS.

So in reality we can exclude the highly rated academy kids from our wishlists but we got to make sure GWS (& GC, Brisbane) use their highest picks for their desired draft kids).

Spoiler: .

 

[1990crow]

Hampton - reckon he will step up
Atkins & Knight - might, both looking good
CEY - still optimistic on him
Gore - unsure
Lyons, M Crouch, Grigg - just can't see it

Matt Crouch in with Lyons and Grigg? Having a laugh surely.

We have two full time KPD. That's one too short. I would've delisted Otten or Shaw and drafted one. Outside runners, small forwards covered. Inside mids good but could always have one more gun in that area - Parker, Neale hopefully next year. Probably why I wouldn't mind Collins at 13 and Francis/Milera at 9.

 

[Captain Furious]

Don't get the hate for Harry McKay. Better than Dear at 17 so with 2 or three years development who knows he may be one of the better key forward prospects in the AFL. Blokes like McCartin, Boyd and Co haven't really stamped themselves yet.

For sure, took Tex a few years to get going as well. Very rare for key forwards to come in and dominate from the start. Reiwoldt and Carey are the only two I can think of, with Hogan now.

 

[Bicks]

For sure, took Tex a few years to get going as well. Very rare for key forwards to come in and dominate from the start. Reiwoldt and Carey are the only two I can think of, with Hogan now.

Jeremy Cameron?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Matt Crouch in with Lyons and Grigg? Having a laugh surely.

We have two full time KPD. That's one too short. I would've delisted Otten or Shaw and drafted one. Outside runners, small forwards covered. Inside mids good but could always have one more gun in that area - Parker, Neale hopefully next year. Probably why I wouldn't mind Collins at 13 and Francis/Milera at 9.

I reckon Lever will eventually become a KPD - maybe after this preseason, maybe after the next. Seems to have the tools.

 

[1990crow]

I reckon Lever will eventually become a KPD - maybe after this preseason, maybe after the next. Seems to have the tools.

I'd say three or four years away myself. In the meantime it Hartigan doesn't come on we will be in trouble.

 

[Bicks]

Yes



It's beneficial to place a bid at true player value (eg. 3 for Mills) to ensure the club has to pay market value. If they take him at 33 their later picks remain intact, giving them the potentially to draft other players from better picks. If they are forced to pay pick 3, they won't have later picks (and potentially will have a reduced selection of picks in the following year)

I reckon if our guys think that McKay is going to go before where they rate him we will likely put in a bid on Hipwood who is clearly the 3rd best tall KPP in this draft after Weitering and Schache.......just a gut feel but I won't be overly surprised if we are into Kieran Collins either.

 

[Mismatched]

Who defines "A" or "B" ? .......doesn't 200 games of AFL class you as an "A" grader

"A" Grader v Superstar

No I don't think it does, plenty of solid B-Graders can make it to 200 games. 200 games is 9 and a bit 22 game full seasons, given footballers, barring injury, can generally play at the elite level until they're 31-32, that's potentially 13-15 seasons to make the number.

Personally, as a basic guide I would define a genuine A-Grade player as someone who meets the following criteria:
- Would walk up start in any teams best 22
- Challenge for at least AA-squad selection regularly
- Regularly talked about as a top 50 player in the competition
- Regularly make top 5 in your teams B&F

For mine, players like Reilly, Doughty,van Berlo were/are not this level player. They've had good careers, been good servants of the club and I'm not saying they were bad players, but I would not classify them as A-Graders either.

Elite/Superstar players are those who spend their careers generally regarded as being amongst the top 20 players in the competition. Players who win multiple club B&F's, multiple AA guernsey's, regularly challenge for the Brownlow(midfielders) etc.