Recruiting Draft Watch 2021

[eDPS]

eDPS's 2021 Draft Rankings

Lore's 2021 Provisional Draft Order
Any issues with it please tag Lore in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2021-provisional-draft-order.1251001/

 

[faible]

Well yeh you need to pick and choose who you take info from

Im not listening to Cooney or Rendell too much thats for sure

Last time I listened it was at least 50% advertising, not worth

 

[Keystone agony]

Last time I listened it was at least 50% advertising, not worth

Just something to get through the days. They certainly know how to fill in time

Guys like Damo, Edmund*, Lloyd, Kornes are atleast worth listening to because they usually still have enough inside sources to clubs

*Edmund didnt seem to get much right having said that

But i dont expect those guys to say a club is looking to move up into the 2nd round without anything behind it

 

[ant555]

Can he?

He can clamp down a small forward?

I should clarify my post as it does read as a bit misleading .
I have not seen him clamp down on a small forward for a game or even a quarter. What I have seen is he is very effective in defense . Good mark good speed and good at reading the play and at 186 and 82kg is pretty strong. He can do the one on one defending and has the pace to go with most forwards. He reads it well enough to intercept a lot of the time.
Chances of him playing a small defender role long term are probably slim as he can play midfield and is a pretty sharp stoppage player.
In a few ways he reminds me of McGrath when he was in his top age year but being a bit taller he takes a few more marks. Not as solid in the hips and quads as McGrath but similar style from half back .
Just a general question. Do sides really go with rigid lock down defenders ?
Seems most are looking for blokes who can defend but also have a very god intercept game and can provide some offence out of the defense if that makes sense.
I have been having a look at a lot of Kellys games and I see him as a good one on one defender on various sizes but not just a lock down player. He has an intercept game that works well and despite what some say his disposal is pretty good as long as he is not trying to pick off the improbable that even Darren Jarman would struggle with.

 

[TDay]

Interesting that Twomey mentions us with Amiss a bit if available at our pick in the video of road to the draft today. Would be melt downs

I'm fine with him talking us up as keen on Amiss. It makes the teams after us who want a tall more likely to give us a good deal for our pick. If there are a couple of mids still on the board, I hope we can slide back a little and pick up a bonus second rounder

 

[ant555]

Well yeh you need to pick and choose who you take info from

Im not listening to Cooney or Rendell too much thats for sure

I find it really hard to listen to but then maybe that is because I have my own sources that I can talk to inside the system so that is an advantage. Being able to get a hold of all the vision / games to watch at my leisure also helps.
The longest I actually listen to trade talk is when Wheatley rings the trade bell and there is a short / sharp run down.

I will say one thing about Rendell , he can come up with some weird thoughts at times but these are the blokes I like to listen to as they have been inside the system for a while so you can get a better feel. I like listening to what he says as there are some gems in it even if I scratch my head wondering what he is thinking some days. He is certainly not generic and does not go with the crowd.

 

[Keystone agony]

I should clarify my post as it does read as a bit misleading .
I have not seen him clamp down on a small forward for a game or even a quarter. What I have seen is he is very effective in defense . Good mark good speed and good at reading the play and at 186 and 82kg is pretty strong. He can do the one on one defending and has the pace to go with most forwards. He reads it well enough to intercept a lot of the time.
Chances of him playing a small defender role long term are probably slim as he can play midfield and is a pretty sharp stoppage player.
In a few ways he reminds me of McGrath when he was in his top age year but being a bit taller he takes a few more marks. Not as solid in the hips and quads as McGrath but similar style from half back .
Just a general question. Do sides really go with rigid lock down defenders ?
Seems most are looking for blokes who can defend but also have a very god intercept game and can provide some offence out of the defense if that makes sense.
I have been having a look at a lot of Kellys games and I see him as a good one on one defender on various sizes but not just a lock down player. He has an intercept game that works well and despite what some say his disposal is pretty good as long as he is not trying to pick off the improbable that even Darren Jarman would struggle with.

Nah, not really

Most sides seem to be converting guys slightly into that role but most teams do like the players to have the ability to do both. Especially us with the way were setting up at the moment.

Some players like Witherden, Rich for example are pretty terrible defenders. Even Nick Hinds probably not great but i think got alot better

Defenses also choose whos the last link of the chain. Ie we would never have Hind on C.Cameron as the last link in the chain just because he has pace. Wed probably prefer a Redman or Kelly with protection of a Ridley sagging off his opponent. Or if it was Weightman we wouldnt go with Hind either just because theyre a similar height? And the smallest for each sides backs and fwds.

Its easier to teach defence than offence

 

[ant555]

Just something to get through the days. They certainly know how to fill in time

Guys like Damo, Edmund*, Lloyd, Kornes are atleast worth listening to because they usually still have enough inside sources to clubs

*Edmund didnt seem to get much right having said that

But i dont expect those guys to say a club is looking to move up into the 2nd round without anything behind it

Kane has mainly second hand sources. He relies on a lot of Lloyds opinions which can be dangerous. Lots of people call him a tool and a w***er and he says some really stupid stuff but he does own what he says and will admit he is wrong.

 

[ant555]

Just on Sinn he would suit how we like to play and he is 186cm so I would not have too many complaints about them taking him even if he has mainly been a flanker as he does have some midfield exposure. He would fit in with what we want to do if you are looking at our game style. Gets on the outside and breaks the lines.

 

[Keystone agony]

I find it really hard to listen to but then maybe that is because I have my own sources that I can talk to inside the system so that is an advantage. Being able to get a hold of all the vision / games to watch at my leisure also helps.
The longest I actually listen to trade talk is when Wheatley rings the trade bell and there is a short / sharp run down.

I will say one thing about Rendell , he can come up with some weird thoughts at times but these are the blokes I like to listen to as they have been inside the system for a while so you can get a better feel. I like listening to what he says as there are some gems in it even if I scratch my head wondering what he is thinking some days. He is certainly not generic and does not go with the crowd.

Kane has mainly second hand sources. He relies on a lot of Lloyds opinions which can be dangerous. Lots of people call him a tool and a w***er and he says some really stupid stuff but he does own what he says and will admit he is wrong.

Yeh look its definitely a frustrating listen. It was really just background noise whilst i was working or didnt want to have to talk to others

Certainly have to pick and choose. Guys like Damo, Edmund have certainly got sources in each club so you know its coming from there. Lloyd has coverage of the dons and certain aspects with his coaching of u18s ect, Kane the same with Port. I do actually like Kane as much as most would disagree. Sometimes he goes a bit overboard silly with what he has to say but alot of the time i agree and hes as much of a contrarian as Rendell. Rendell i do scratch my head and wonder how he was a recruiter for so long, he seems to me like a cow boy that was luckier than the avg joe. Hes still a good listen because like Dermie it just comes from such a different angle and its not the usual nonsense but sometimes i wonder how these guys had jobs in AFL clubs.

 

[ant555]

Have to admit I need to do a slight backflip .
Have been strong on the fact we do not need to draft a KPF as we have a few that have not played and we do not know about.
Got to knock off a bit early today because the wind closed down most building sites so I have watched a few games.
Jye Amiss. If he is available when we pick first you would have to consider him. Very good leading patterns. Hardly ever misses. Has good goal sense in general play. Not the strongest contested mark I have seen but he is just such a good forward.
Food for thought.
I now have a few players I would be happy with.

 

[Keystone agony]

Watched Amiss probably live 5 times

I like what i see. I see alot of Aaran Naughton, maybe thats just the WA kid, mullet look, left foot as a key forward.

I didnt see alot of pack marks but he certainly crashed plenty. His follow up tackling very good like Naughton aswell. Unselfish.

He tailed away end of season which might concern a few, didnt take advantage of undersize defenders against East Freo but at the time he looked injured and since has come out that he in fact had a knee injury which he played with.

Im still in the boat of grabbing one of Erazmus, Johnson or Goater. We need key forwards but more of the mature variety.

Other clubs will come for our pick if Amiss is still available at 13. Ports pick 14 aswell as they probably arent taking him? Marshall, Georgiades, Finlayson should be there for the next 3 years +

If i was Richmond id definitely be giving up 17 and one of those picks 28-30 for 13/14 if hes available there

 

[ant555]

Watched Amiss probably live 5 times

I like what i see. I see alot of Aaran Naughton, maybe thats just the WA kid, mullet look, left foot as a key forward.

I didnt see alot of pack marks but he certainly crashed plenty. His follow up tackling very good like Naughton aswell. Unselfish.

He tailed away end of season which might concern a few, didnt take advantage of undersize defenders against East Freo but at the time he looked injured and since has come out that he in fact had a knee injury which he played with.

Im still in the boat of grabbing one of Erazmus, Johnson or Goater. We need key forwards but more of the mature variety.

Other clubs will come for our pick if Amiss is still available at 13. Ports pick 14 aswell as they probably arent taking him? Marshall, Georgiades, Finlayson should be there for the next 3 years +

If i was Richmond id definitely be giving up 17 and one of those picks 28-30 for 13/14 if hes available there

Fits pretty much with what I saw.
Like you KPF is not my personal choice in this draft. I am with you , Erazmus , Johnson Goater etc are my first choice types with Sinn also in that group.
If we do draft a forward I would only be looking at him. Certainly not looking at late KP prospects.

 

[Keystone agony]

If we took Amiss at 13 (Assuming hes available) then id imagine wed have to seriously look at trading our F1 straight away aswell and land a Goater.

Wouldnt be much point getting Amiss and then trying for Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

25

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

12 months later aswell would be way out of balance

Port at 14 would probably consider aswell... hard to see who theyre taking unless they really like a Draper or M.Roberts which it doesnt appear so

 

[eDPS]

If we took Amiss at 13 (Assuming hes available) then id imagine wed have to seriously look at trading our F1 straight away aswell and land a Goater.

Wouldnt be much point getting Amiss and then trying for Ben King 12 months later aswell would be way out of balance

Out of balance for talls as it is especially developing ones, Amiss is still a few years away from playing senior footy.

 

[TheGrizz]

If we took Amiss at 13 (Assuming hes available) then id imagine wed have to seriously look at trading our F1 straight away aswell and land a Goater.

Wouldnt be much point getting Amiss and then trying for Ben King 12 months later aswell would be way out of balance

Port at 14 would probably consider aswell... hard to see who theyre taking unless they really like a Draper or M.Roberts which it doesnt appear so

I dare say if we draft Amiss we might be tagging out of the King sweepstakes

 

[Godzke]

Already plenty of footage of him in the red and black.

Like him a lot - HBFer?

 

[Old Campaigner]

I can't believe there's still a month of this shit to go

 

[Zach Package]

We would have to think Sinn a significant step above to ignore the bigger bodies with more of a track record in the middle of the ground that look to be around the mark.

Depth in the back is certainly an issue but given we’re essentially recruiting the run and gun distributor version of Jordan Ridley

14

Jordan Ridley

Age

27

Ht

195cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

244.8

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

11.9

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

6.7

5star

T

1.7

3star

MG

265.4

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

MG

208.2

4star

I hardly think it’s a need. Either that or we’re certain he’s actually a midfielder, and a fine one at that.

 

[eDPS]

I can't believe there's still a month of this sh*t to go

Tell me about it

 

[Duckworth]

We would have to think Sinn a significant step above to ignore the bigger bodies with more of a track record in the middle of the ground that look to be around the mark.

Depth in the back is certainly an issue but given we’re essentially recruiting the run and gun distributor version of Jordan Ridley I hardly think it’s a need. Either that or we’re certain he’s actually a midfielder, and a fine one at that.

The most Essendon thing to do, is recruit the best running HBFer in the draft, then play him as a midfielder.

 

[Godzke]

It's not hard to make your own from AFL tables data, 'total for' divided by 'total against' for the season; https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

Results in something like this;

View attachment 1268051

Shows you how important hit outs are, and rebounds 50s. Good teams don't rely on slingshot footy from defence...

whilst i appreciate all the work you put in creating tables and spreadsheets, i can't say this one seems entirely accurate. A differential stat based on A divided by B should always average out to be 1. At a cursory glance most seem to be ok, but columns 3 and 4 look completely wrong.

 

[ant555]

We would have to think Sinn a significant step above to ignore the bigger bodies with more of a track record in the middle of the ground that look to be around the mark.

Depth in the back is certainly an issue but given we’re essentially recruiting the run and gun distributor version of Jordan Ridley I hardly think it’s a need. Either that or we’re certain he’s actually a midfielder, and a fine one at that.

You and I see Jordan Ridley in a very different light if you are trying to find a similarity between him and Sinn.
Looking at our game style and what we want to do Sinn is actually a good fit and he is not small. He would be different to what we do have on the list.

 

[Lore]

whilst i appreciate all the work you put in creating tables and spreadsheets, i can't say this one seems entirely accurate. A differential stat based on A divided by B should always average out to be 1. At a cursory glance most seem to be ok, but columns 3 and 4 look completely wrong.

Yep you’re right. The reason for that is that I’ve had this spreadsheet for several years, I just change the URL for the source info each year. So most of the data is differentials (A/B) and a couple of columns I’ve changed the formula without updating the title because it was purely for my own purposes, such as the bubble graphs I shared a little later.

The people I was replying to were only interested in the CP differential, and that part is calculated as I said (I probably should’ve hidden the anomalous rows when I took the screenshot).

iirc the clearance differential is (A/B)-1 which means the average of that column should be 0.

The forward and defence efficiency isn’t a differential, it’s inside 50s per scoring shot for (attack) and against (defence) – origin of the bubble graphs.

 

[Ants]

Ess In: Pick 25 (WBD), F4 (Crows via Stkilda)
Ess out: F2, 3rd, 3rd

WBD in: F2 (Dons) + 3rd (Dons)
WBD out: pick 25

Stkilda In: 3rd (Dons)
Stkilda Out: F4 (Tied to Crows)

Doesn't really have to be a 3 way

That’s very very expensive. The F4 is a nothing pick, 23 will move back and the thirds move forward. So it’s really saying we’re willing to trade two decent thirds and a second for #25. And saying we’re happy taking a guy at 80 odd rather than in the forties.

I could see us doing that for a specific player we REALLY rated, similar to what we did with Jones. But any deal for #23 must occur within the first few picks. We’ll have no idea who will be available. I can’t see us overpaying to such a degree on a long shot.

 

[ant555]

If we took Amiss at 13 (Assuming hes available) then id imagine wed have to seriously look at trading our F1 straight away aswell and land a Goater.

Wouldnt be much point getting Amiss and then trying for Ben King 12 months later aswell would be way out of balance

Port at 14 would probably consider aswell... hard to see who theyre taking unless they really like a Draper or M.Roberts which it doesnt appear so

From what I hear it is 80/20 King goes nowhere and is signed before the season is over. On top of that GC will not be looking for just picks. The word is something has to go really wrong for him to want to walk away but he is not going to jump in until they start playing. Right now all the talk about leaving is 100% media driven and fed to them by a few Melbourne clubs looking to try and destabilize the situation.