Opinion Drafting since 2003 (taken from the Myers thread)

[Yoda_]

It's more hope on Yoda's behalf that an Essendon player will turn out to be a bust, proving him right.

You would hope first rounders turned out to be genuine stars of the game.. How many of our first rounders ARE stars? (Stanton probably the closest, Ryder close behind him. Neither in the 'star' category in my eyes).

There is optimism then there is realism, sadly I seem to be one of a few who sees Myers as a depth 20 - 25 player. Happily proved wrong by years end though

 

[Zach Package]

You would hope first rounders turned out to be genuine stars of the game.. How many of our first rounders ARE stars? (Stanton probably the closest, Ryder close behind him. Neither in the 'star' category in my eyes).

There is optimism then there is realism, sadly I seem to be one of a few who sees Myers as a depth 20 - 25 player. Happily proved wrong by years end though

I'd argue that Heppell is a star

 

[lamaros]

You would hope first rounders turned out to be genuine stars of the game.. How many of our first rounders ARE stars? (Stanton probably the closest, Ryder close behind him. Neither in the 'star' category in my eyes).

There is optimism then there is realism, sadly I seem to be one of a few who sees Myers as a depth 20 - 25 player. Happily proved wrong by years end though

*Laycock - Lazy, didn't make it.
***Winderlich - Quality player, injuries have robbed him of most of his career.
*****Stanton - Possibly the best pick in his draft year.
**Bradley - Was a dud draft year, hindsight doesn't change the fact he was a reasonable choice where he was.
***Monfries - Value for his pick, never a star but a genuine player for a long time.
****Ryder - Top top ruckman in the league, still got a lot of scope to get better. Underage pick.
inj.**Gumby - Injured, still might back a miracle comeback.
inj.***Myers - Injured, still clearly a best 22 player for us, young enough to be too soon to say.
****Hurley - Quality player, like Ryder, with scope still. Wrist injury hasn't helped him.
***Melksham - Too young to call yet, coaches rate him very highly and so do I.
*****Heppell - Star already.

Kavanagh - Too soon to say.
Daniher - Too soon to say.

Of all the first round draft picks we've had only Laycock still isn't playing AFL. Only Bradley and Monfries still aren't on our list. Stanton, Ryder, Hurley, Heppell are genuine top drawer picks.

Considering how other clubs have gone with similar picks I'd say we've done pretty well indeed, apart from the luck with injuries.

 

[yaco55]

Think Lamaros is looking through rose-colored glasses.

The only one who has lived up to their draft rating is Stanton. Winderlich has been hamstrung by injury and Heppell/Hurley will probably better their draft rating. Ryder was picked at 7 - Rucks at this pick want to be damn good, compared to other ruckmen - Ryder isn't in the top 5 rucks in the league, probably just makes the top 10. He may still improve. Doubt that Myers will leave up to his draft rating and there are question marks on Melksham

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Ryder isn't in the top 5 rucks in the league

He was before injury last year. Probably top 2-3 actually.

 

[yaco55]

He was before injury last year. Probably top 2-3 actually.

You shockingly over-rate our players.

Tell which rucks are better than Ryder ?

 

[Duckworth]

I can't name 10 better than him.

 

[yaco55]

I can't name 10 better than him.

So debate over.

Ryder is the number one ruck in the AFL !

 

[Red Black and Blue]

You shockingly over-rate our players.

Tell which rucks are better than Ryder ?

Look at eaglespremiers list:

From a neutrals perspective. He ranked every player week by week and at round 15 had Ryder as the 37th best player in the game, only just dropping behind Naitanui and Cox that week.

Rucks I'd take in front of Ryder would be Cox, NicNat, Sandilands (I'd also chuck in Roughead if he counts) with Mumford, Maric, Jacobs all about the same level and Minson and Kruezer just behind.

I don't over-rate our players, I just try to stay balanced and the sky is falling routine already gets a good run on this board.

 

[Yoda_]

I'd argue that Heppell is a star

I will give you that one Jack, I guess I should have stated best in there age group, of which Heppel is clearly number one.

 

[Yoda_]

*Laycock - Lazy, didn't make it.
***Winderlich - Quality player, injuries have robbed him of most of his career.
*****Stanton - Possibly the best pick in his draft year.
**Bradley - Was a dud draft year, hindsight doesn't change the fact he was a reasonable choice where he was.
***Monfries - Value for his pick, never a star but a genuine player for a long time.
****Ryder - Top top ruckman in the league, still got a lot of scope to get better. Underage pick.
inj.**Gumby - Injured, still might back a miracle comeback.
inj.***Myers - Injured, still clearly a best 22 player for us, young enough to be too soon to say.
****Hurley - Quality player, like Ryder, with scope still. Wrist injury hasn't helped him.
***Melksham - Too young to call yet, coaches rate him very highly and so do I.
*****Heppell - Star already.

Kavanagh - Too soon to say.
Daniher - Too soon to say.

Of all the first round draft picks we've had only Laycock still isn't playing AFL. Only Bradley and Monfries still aren't on our list. Stanton, Ryder, Hurley, Heppell are genuine top drawer picks.

Considering how other clubs have gone with similar picks I'd say we've done pretty well indeed, apart from the luck with injuries.

The only player I would consider in the top echelon in there position is possibly Stanton (when on song), same applied for Ryder. However; both are not genuine A - Grade players.

Ill have a go shall I;

Winderlich: No where near a top drawer player.
Stanton: good to very good AFL midfielder, not top 10 then, our best first round pick though (on par with Ryder).
Bradley: Role player
Monfries: role player
Ryder: on par with Stanton as our best first round pick.
Gumby: when does the hope stop? Doubt he will ever be a top 5 forward.
David Myers: not in the top 5 utilities in the AFL.
Michael: not in the top 5 forwards in the AFL.
Melksham: ALOT of work to do, playing catchup on Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Lewis Jetta.
Heppel: Star already.
EKav/ JoeD: too young..

 

[yaco55]

Look at eaglespremiers list:

From a neutrals perspective. He ranked every player week by week and at round 15 had Ryder as the 37th best player in the game, only just dropping behind Naitanui and Cox that week.

Rucks I'd take in front of Ryder would be Cox, NicNat, Sandilands (I'd also chuck in Roughead if he counts) with Mumford, Maric, Jacobs all about the same level and Minson and Kruezer just behind.

I don't over-rate our players, I just try to stay balanced and the sky is falling routine already gets a good run on this board.

You don't get it - Ryder was selected at pick 7 in 2005 - he was the first ruck selected - When you pick rucks early you want them to become dominant in their position - Ryder has yet to prove that he is dominant - He still has time.

 

[Duckworth]

You don't get it - Ryder was selected at pick 7 in 2005 - he was the first ruck selected - When you pick rucks early you want them to become dominant in their position - Ryder has yet to prove that he is dominant - He still has time.

I'm not sure why this is in the Myers thread??

How does where he was picked in the draft even remotely matter as to where he ranks against other rucks in the league?

 

[Ben the Gooner]

The only player I would consider in the top echelon in there position is possibly Stanton (when on song), same applied for Ryder. However; both are not genuine A - Grade players.

Ill have a go shall I;

Winderlich: No where near a top drawer player.
Stanton: good to very good AFL midfielder, not top 10 then, our best first round pick though (on par with Ryder).
Bradley: Role player
Monfries: role player
Ryder: on par with Stanton as our best first round pick.
Gumby: when does the hope stop? Doubt he will ever be a top 5 forward.
David Myers: not in the top 5 utilities in the AFL.
Michael: not in the top 5 forwards in the AFL.
Melksham: ALOT of work to do, playing catchup on Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Lewis Jetta.
Heppel: Star already.
EKav/ JoeD: too young..

If the pass mark for a first rounder is a top 5 player in that position in the competition, we should sack all 18 recruiters. What an idiotic comment.

 

[morebeer]

lol, Myers thread has turned into another bash Essendon drafting thread, strangely with a mod doing the derailing.

 

[daz17]

We need a dedicated draft bashing thread. Need to let it all out.

 

[lamaros]

If the pass mark for a first rounder is a top 5 player in that position in the competition, we should sack all 18 recruiters. What an idiotic comment.

Agree.

Some people need to take a look at how other clubs drafted to get some perspective.

Hell, take a look at who was drafted before and after and Stanton in his year. Then tell me we've drafted poorly... The context of a draft year is how you rate drafting - not some absurdly high rule on what a number should yield.

You don't get it - Ryder was selected at pick 7 in 2005 - he was the first ruck selected - When you pick rucks early you want them to become dominant in their position - Ryder has yet to prove that he is dominant - He still has time.

Given 18 first round picks to each club every year and an average career length of around 13 years for a top quality player, and one ruck prospect picked in the first round each year, you would expect to find 234 first round draft picks, 13 of them ruckmen, at any given time.

Therefore anyone who was not in the top 10%-30% of first round picks over that time would be a failure to some here - you are literally setting a bar that most first roud picks, mathematically, cannot achieve.

It'd be hilarious if you weren't serious.

 

[lamaros]

The only player I would consider in the top echelon in there position is possibly Stanton (when on song), same applied for Ryder. However; both are not genuine A - Grade players.

Ill have a go shall I;

Winderlich: No where near a top drawer player.
Stanton: good to very good AFL midfielder, not top 10 then, our best first round pick though (on par with Ryder).
Bradley: Role player
Monfries: role player
Ryder: on par with Stanton as our best first round pick.
Gumby: when does the hope stop? Doubt he will ever be a top 5 forward.
David Myers: not in the top 5 utilities in the AFL.
Michael: not in the top 5 forwards in the AFL.
Melksham: ALOT of work to do, playing catchup on Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Lewis Jetta.
Heppel: Star already.
EKav/ JoeD: too young..

Here are those players of equal or greater quality picked in the ten picks after our picks.

Winderlich: Gilham. That's it. We nailed this pick, even with the injuries.
Stanton: No one. Smashed this pick. Only Mundy is even close, half the rest aren't playing AFL still.
Bradley: Stanton, Waters, Chaplin. So, two clearly better, one of whom was also our pick.
Monfries: Van Berlo. That's it, Monfries better than the rest.
Ryder: Only Clarke, Jones, Hurn, Birchall, possibly have a claim. Only Clarke is a key position player of that lot. I'd go with Ryder still. Nailed this pick (but open for debate). (By the way, have you seen the guys who got picked after we got Dempsey? Rubbish the lot of em).
Gumby: Luenberger, Boak, Selwood, Reid, Armatige, Frawley. Gumby is clearly behind here - but you can't blame recruiting, he was a clear number two, the injuries just got him. Wha'ts Hansen's excuse?
Myers: McEvoy, Dangerfield, Rioli, Grimes. Despite Myers injuries trouble he still around the middle of the picks here. Worse than a few but better then most.
Hurley: Sidebottom is the only guy I'd say is ahead to date. Sidebottom is also not a tall. Nailed this pick.
Melksham: Talia, Jetta, Fyfe. The other guys you mention were picked BEFORE him. You realize that with drafting you can't pick guys who aren't available at your pick, right?
Heppell: Star already. Obviously an inspired pick.

Can you seriously look at those drafts and say we didn't do better than most? I would love you to list how many clubs have got better rewards from their picks in the same period - there wont be many, if any.

 

[eth-dog]

lam, I mostly agree with you, but you could realistically throw in Bastinac as well for the Melksham one

 

[Towno78]

You would hope first rounders turned out to be genuine stars of the game.. How many of our first rounders ARE stars? (Stanton probably the closest, Ryder close behind him. Neither in the 'star' category in my eyes).

There is optimism then there is realism, sadly I seem to be one of a few who sees Myers as a depth 20 - 25 player. Happily proved wrong by years end though

You may hope first rounders turned out to be genuine stars of the game... But that, on your behalf, is where the optimism lies. Realism shows this is far from the case.
Of course your term "star of the game" is very subjective, and I've asterisked a few that I've been extremely generous with the term, but below is how I see ALL the first round picks. I stopped at 2008, because many of them were really still falling in the potential basket.
So over an 8 year period:
8/8 #1 draft picks - 100%
13/32 #2-5 draft picks - 41%
21/101 #6+ - 20%
The number 1 pick is a gimme, picks 2-5 are worse than a coin toss, and the remainder of the first round are only a 1 in 5 strike rate.

How about you stop expecting every first round pick to be a star and start being realistic? Given we've never had a #1 draft pick and only two in the range 2-5, we should realistically be tracking at little more than 1 in 5. To jag Stanton, Ryder, Heppell, Hurley as hits is tracking better than average even if none of the other first rounders come on.

2000:
1 Nick Riewoldt
12 Shaun Burgoyne
16 Scott Thompson
2001:
1 Luke Hodge
2 Luke Ball
3 Chris Judd
8 Jimmy Bartel
12 Brent Reilly **
13 Nick Dal Santo
17 James Kelly
2002:
1 Brendon Goddard
2 Daniel Wells
5 Jarrad McVeigh
2003:
1 Adam Cooney
2 Andrew Walker **
11 Beau Waters **
13 Brent Stanton
2004:
1 Brett Deledio
2 Jarryd Roughead
3 Ryan Griffen
5 Lance Franklin
7 Jordan Lewis **
2005:
1 Marc Murphy
2 Dale Thomas
4 Josh Kennedy
5 Scott Pendlebury
7 Patrick Ryder
9 Mitch Clark
11 Shaun Higgins **
13 Shannon Hurn
2006:
1 Bryce Gibbs
5 Travis Boak
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid
10 Nathan Brown
12 James Frawley
13 Jack Riewoldt
2007:
1 Matthew Kreuzer
2 Trent Cotchin
10 Patrick Dangerfield
12 Cyril Rioli
17 Harry Taylor

 

[lamaros]

2001:
12 Brent Reilly **
17 James Kelly

2002:
5 Jarrad McVeigh

2003:
2 Andrew Walker **
11 Beau Waters **

2004:
7 Jordan Lewis **

2005:

11 Shaun Higgins **

I've cut the list to some I'd like to comment about. Reilly is an average to decent player at the moment. For most of his career he has been lass than that. In his FIFTH season he bounced his average disposals from 13.4 to 17. (Context: Myers is now entering his 6th season, he averaged 16.6 in his third. Reilly played 68 games in that time, Myers has played 45.)

Kelly was merely a bit player in a team of stars until 2010. His 9th season. (Context: That's like giving Myers until 2016 to become a quality player)

McVeigh played 105 games in his first 5 seasons, moving his disposal average to 19.5 from 13.8 in his fifth year. (Context: He entered that year with 81 games under his belt.)

Walker just isn't a star player.

Waters wasn't much of a player until his 5th year. (Context: 82 games in his first five years).

Lewis didn't really come on until his third year. (Context: 63 games in that time - an uninterrupted run Myers has never had).

Higgins is injury prone, with many giving him a free pass for it, despite never doing much. He played 69 games in his first five years... (He is also an average player who I would prefer Myers to every day of the week).

 

[Kong]

Ryder was picked at 7 - Rucks at this pick want to be damn good, compared to other ruckmen - Ryder isn't in the top 5 rucks in the league, probably just makes the top 10. He may still improve.

But you've always said the best ruckmen come from the rookie draft?

 

[Towno78]

I've cut the list to some I'd like to comment about. Reilly is an average to decent player at the moment. For most of his career he has been lass than that. In his FIFTH season he bounced his average disposals from 13.4 to 17. (Context: Myers is now entering his 6th season, he averaged 16.6 in his third. Reilly played 68 games in that time, Myers has played 45.)

Kelly was merely a bit player in a team of stars until 2010. His 9th season. (Context: That's like giving Myers until 2016 to become a quality player)

McVeigh played 105 games in his first 5 seasons, moving his disposal average to 19.5 from 13.8 in his fifth year. (Context: He entered that year with 81 games under his belt.)

Walker just isn't a star player.

Waters wasn't much of a player until his 5th year. (Context: 82 games in his first five years).

Lewis didn't really come on until his third year. (Context: 63 games in that time - an uninterrupted run Myers has never had).

Higgins is injury prone, with many giving him a free pass for it, despite never doing much. He played 69 games in his first five years... (He is also an average player who I would prefer Myers to every day of the week).

Well I was deliberately generous with his term "star" to emphasise the point, even including these players, the statistics are very low.
Going through the exercise, something that stood out to me, was that for some of the older guys that I put on the list, they definitely wouldn't have been on the list at the same stage in Myers career, as you've pointed out for some above. So there really is still time for Myers as others have shown. But even if he doesn't become a star, or even an a very good player, does not mean it's a failed pick.

EDIT: And whilst I didn't include Dempsey on this list, I fully expect him to join the list of first round hits.

 

[Tommy08]

Not sure what this is going to achieve other than giving me high blood pressure

 

[Doss]

High blood pressure or not, having it in a new thread is much more desirable than having the Myers (and others) thread taken off course all the time.