DT 2011 Rookies Thread

[Buddyman]

Re: Rookies on the field

a massive 7 under DWD method, but i classify rookies differently. Rookies from my point of view rookies are players that haven't played as of yet, but weren't drafted as mature ages either. If that makes sense? I have two using this consensus

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Re: Rookies on the field

So what do you include I.Smith and Puoplopo as? if they were starting

 

[samwise]

Re: Rookies on the field

I think this thread should be more along the lines of:
1. Number of 1st year players
2. Number of cash cows under 160k
3. Number of cash cows over 160k

Perhaps less confusion.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Is young Swallow worth it?

We all know that rookies that start in your team are mainly affecting you int the first 10-12 rounds before they are upgraded. Swallow is 160k this year and his team has two byes in the first 9 rounds. So the most he can play is 7/9 games which is only 5 price increases before people may look to upgrade him to the real god possibly (Ablett). Alot of people are thinking of bringing Ablett in after round 9 as he doesnt miss another bye.

But im thinking only 7/9 games from Swallow in which your paying an extra 70k more than Atley, Wallis, Blease ect is it worth it. These players may not be walk up starts week in week out, but can they play 7/9 games and you save ~70k.

To be nice to Swallow 70k is 2 weeks of price increaments 35k a round, to be more accurate i would say probably 3 weeks of price increaments is 70k.

So potentially picking Swallow assuming he would play every game means he plays 7/9 games, this pretty much equals a 90k player (Wallis, Blease, Atley, Weller, Lock) playing 4/9 games and getting price increaments.

So is he worth it? i think probably not looking at it this way, however it doesnt really factor in JS

Just food for thought

 

[Borshk]

Great post dwd.

In the end, it is his JS that makes him worth it in my eyes. Also, i dont think hes gonna be used a a sub whereas some of those other rookies could be subbed on/off due to their smaller bodies, senior level inexperience etc.

 

[WeninRome]

Is young Swallow worth it?

We all know that rookies that start in your team are mainly affecting you int the first 10-12 rounds before they are upgraded. Swallow is 160k this year and his team has two byes in the first 9 rounds. So the most he can play is 7/9 games which is only 5 price increases before people may look to upgrade him to the real god possibly (Ablett). Alot of people are thinking of bringing Ablett in after round 9 as he doesnt miss another bye.

But im thinking only 7/9 games from Swallow in which your paying an extra 70k more than Atley, Wallis, Blease ect is it worth it. These players may not be walk up starts week in week out, but can they play 7/9 games and you save ~70k.

To be nice to Swallow 70k is 2 weeks of price increaments 35k a round, to be more accurate i would say probably 3 weeks of price increaments is 70k.

So potentially picking Swallow assuming he would play every game means he plays 7/9 games, this pretty much equals a 90k player (Wallis, Blease, Atley, Weller, Lock) playing 4/9 games and getting price increaments.

So is he worth it? i think probably not looking at it this way, however it doesnt really factor in JS

Just food for thought

One of the few posts you have written which I actually agree on...He is not worth it IMO...not when Harris will do the exact same job.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

One of the few posts you have written which I actually agree on...He is not worth it IMO...not when Harris will do the exact same job.

I dont think he should be compared to Harris. Harris is a dead set lock for me and many others.

 

[Effes]

I will be watching him but doubt he is ready for that kind of break-out dunn-well done. His attack on the football is fantastic, but his style is a bit rough, needs to get up the ground and play outside a lot more to be a real candidate. Maybe in a year he will be getting into real breakout territory.

In an interview on 5AA Dangerfield said how he is trying to be more selective in his attack on the ball - mentioning how sometimes his attack on the ball means he can't be involved in the next passage of play. This will go some way to improving his outside/uncontested part of his game which should increase his scoring.

 

[Lakey91]

One of the few posts you have written which I actually agree on...He is not worth it IMO...not when Harris will do the exact same job.

As DWD alluded too, it isnt about Swallow v Harris, but its about Swallow v the 5th-6th best rookie (since most will have 3 on the bench and start 2-3). When you get to that stage, sometimes job security can be a big issue.

I remember last year, we had very similar discussions about Scully. I went with him and he more than did his job. Swallow averaged 27-28 touches in VFL last year and came fourth in the league B+F. Safe to say he should average 75-80 (like scully, trengove, etc did). Its a good exercise to go to TooSerious (theres your plug Walesy - you should start paying me!) and put through an average of 75-80 for Swallow and an average of 55-60 for a 98k player and see which one ends up on top.

 

[beez]

^^

I've been waiting to use Tooserious with the 2011 calc's in mind.

Awesome website

 

[LiverpoolRed]

DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Everyone wants to find the diamond in the rough that will be the 2011 version of Barlow or Podsaidly. But, I'm struggling to go through team list to find out who are the mature aged rookies, and their history.

There are the obvious ones such as Karkouer, Callinan, Harris and the like but who are the guys who that have been plucked out of the state leagues or given a second chance at life?

Discuss all your mature aged rookies in this thread.

 

[daisy is a spud]

Re: DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Backs:
Jacob Brennan, 20 - WCE - East Fremantle,WAFL
Paul Puopolo, 23 - HAW - Norwood,SANFL
Nick Duigan, 26 - CAR - Norwood,SANFL
Michael Hibberd (BAC/CTR), 21 - ESS - Frankston,VFL
Michael Coad, 27 - GC - Sturt,SANFL (VFL last year)
Danny Stanley, 23 - GC - GC,VFL (ex Collingwood AFL)
Peter Faulks, 24 - FRE - Williamstown,VFL (ex Sydney)
Nick Lower*, 24 - FRE - Norwood,SANFL (ex Port Adelaide AFL player)
Jack Perham*, 20 - COL - East Fremantle,WAFL
Cam Pedersen*(BAC/RUC), 24 - NTH - Box Hill,VFL
Dan Nicholson*(BAC/CTR), 21 - MEL - Uni Blues,VFA

Mids:
Michael Hibberd (BAC/CTR), 21 - ESS - Frankston,VFL
Daniel Harris, 28 - GC - GC,VFL (ex North)
Sam Iles, 23 - GC - Box Hill/GC, VFL (ex Collingwood)
Andrew Krakouer (FWD/CTR), 28 -COL- Swan Districts,WAFL(ex Richmond)
Isaac Smith (FWD/CTR), 22 - HAW - North Ballarat,VFL
Tendai Mzungu (FWD/CTR), 24 - FRE - Perth,WAFL
Simon Phillips, 23 - POR - Norwood,SANFL (ex Sydney)
Rohan Bewick, 21 - BRI - West Perth,WAFL
Ed Curnow*, 21 - CAR - Box Hill, VFL (ex Adelaide)
Wayde Twomey*, 24 - CAR - Swan Districts,WAFL
Ian Callinan* (FWD/CTR), 28 - ADE - Centrals,SANFL
Dan Nicholson*(BAC/CTR), 21 - MEL - Uni Blues,VFA

Rucks:
Does anybody really care about the rucks?
Tom Derickx, 23 - RIC - Claremont,WAFL
Robbie Campbell*, 28 - MEL - Box Hill,VFL (ex Hawthorn)
Cam Pedersen*(BAC/RUC), 24 - NTH - Box Hill,VFL
Josh Jenkins*, 21 - ESS - Lake Boga,CMFL

Forwards:
Andrew Krakouer (FWD/CTR), 28 -COL- Swan Districts,WAFL(ex Richmond)
Isaac Smith (FWD/CTR), 22 - HAW - North Ballarat,VFL
Tendai Mzungu (FWD/CTR), 24 - FRE - Perth,WAFL
Cam Richardson, 23 - NTH - North Ballarat,VFL
Zeph Skinner, 21 - WB - Nightcliff Tigers,NTFL
Jeremy Howe,20-MEL-Hobart Tigers,whatever the tas league is called
Liam Patrick, 22 - GC - Wanderers,NTFL
Ben Jakobi*, 19 - RIC - Coburg,VFL
Ian Callinan* (FWD/CTR), 28 - ADE - Centrals,SANFL
Nathan Ablett*, 25 - GC - Broadbeach,AFLQ

*denotes rookie listed
I have only included GC players recruited from state leagues not people like Zac Smith who is 20 but went straight to Gold Coast.

 

[Blues_FC]

Re: DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Peter Faulks, 24 - SYD - Williamstown,VFL (ex Sydney)

Nice list, but FWIW, Faulks is Freo, not Sydney.

 

[LiverpoolRed]

Re: DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Thanks for the list mate, very helpful.

 

[Walesy]

Re: GC Debutants

does that really work though?

say I have an adelaide player who is a mistake - quite likely
his price won't change until round 4 due to the bye. got that, fine.

BUT

what about the NBT target? they will have (increased) in price in round 3.

so do I really have an extra round, if my target is still going up.

It works because you can trade *into* the Adelaide player before they go up in price- not out of them! Same as the GC, it's easier to get into them than it is to correct a mistaken one.

 

[Walesy]

I agree! Everyone should go there and play with the calculators!

Just for the record though, an 80 average from Swallow will go up in salary more than a 60 average from Harris or Lock.

However, a 60 from a 80k rookie will come out ahead.

 

[Buddyman]

Jasper M-Pittard anyone?

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

Re: DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Matthew Wright 21 or 22 plays form the crows Mid 92.500 he was a possession getter in the SANFL reported to have impressed club staff

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

Tommy Walsh from the saints keep an eye on him during the preseason from Ireland Fwd 92.500 could make his debut this year after coming 7th in the best and fairest with Sandringham he was a super star in gaelic football he is 22 or 23

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Tommy Walsh from the saints keep an eye on him during the preseason from Ireland Fwd 92.500 could make his debut this year after coming 7th in the best and fairest with Sandringham he was a super star in gaelic football he is 22 or 23

Keep hearing his name pop up, more of a HBF than a forward IIRC. Certainly will keep an eye on him. Maybe a magpie Clarke revisited.

 

[Wee Jessies]

Re: Rookies on the field

I have also been a bit bemused when someone attacks another team's structure by suggesting too many rookies. Last year if your team wasn't averaging close to 2000 from the start you were gone, this suggests that you need to lean much more to a team that has got significant improvement ie the best cash cows.

Ultimately, if you do your research well you should have a fair idea of which kids are going to see game time. Avoiding rookies in the top four is usually a safe bet as they may only see games through injury, (the mature age recruit pheneomenon provide some exceptions).

The rookies I start will depend on round 1 selections and my views on long term selections rather than too many in any position, the DP link and three reserves provides an even better buffer.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Re: Rookies on the field

The value system is still really the same.

There is no penalty on rookies like was suspected might happen possibly due to already making the game more difficult with the byes.

Pick the best guns you can and fill in the rookies around them.

The more risk the more reward. The days of midpricers are dead.

 

[SkankDanker]

Re: Rookies on the field

The days of the mid-pricer have been considered "dead" by most for at least 4 years.

The Gold Coast makes it a hell of a lot more tempting to stack up on rookies because you can be fairly certain they will get a game. Whether they score enough is not really that relevant as they are priced to a maximum of 40 in Swallow (see what I did there Dr Dream Team?).

The difference is that VS have probably unknowing contributed to the "death" of the mid-pricers by increasing the starting price of the 1st round picks. A large chunk of the security provided by mid-pricers was having the flexibility to downgrade early in the season if they didn't work out.

The fact is if Swallow doesn't work out you have some wriggle room as you can downgrade him to someone else and probably free up 60K or so that you can use elsewehere. Previously all rookie failures resulted in either a spud on your bench all year or a sideways trade to another risk.

I still don't think mid-price is dead though.

Remember these strategies only apply to your starting side, so while they are important it is not the end of the world - with 24 trades if you miss decent rookies you can afford to burn a trade or two bringing them in.

That's just the opinion of an old dog DTer well past his use by date.

 

[DERIBERATE]

Re: DT 2011 Mature-Age Rookies Thread

Matthew Wright 21 or 22 plays form the crows Mid 92.500 he was a possession getter in the SANFL reported to have impressed club staff

Impressing Adelaide's coaching staff means he'll be on the list for 5 years then get a tagging role on the opposition substitute so he can learn the ethos of the game.

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: GC Debutants

It works because you can trade *into* the Adelaide player before they go up in price- not out of them! Same as the GC, it's easier to get into them than it is to correct a mistaken one.

you're unlikely to want to do that

Adelaide isn't exactly home of the early season rookie picks