DT Rucks 2012

[Richo83]

These are my reasoning choosing rucks:

1. The rookie rucks seem settled. Ergo, I will focus on the starting rucks, and you should all aim to grab yourself a premium ruck.

2. A premium ruck seems more a player who averages mid 90s rather than 100s. It is very rare for a premium ruck to average 100. Cox is pretty much the only one to do it. Sandilands has never averaged 100+ in a season. So we should aim for someone to average 90s.

3. A ruckman generally kicks in his 3rd-5th year.

Cox: went from 77.5 in his 4th year to 95 in his fifth
Goldstein: 74.5 in his 3rd to 99.3 in 4th
McEvoy: 58.6 in 3rd to 90.4 in 4th
Leuenberger: 77.3 in 4th to 91.4 in 5th
Mumford: 79.9 in 3rd to 91.4 in 4th
Jacobs: 69.6 in 2nd to 87 in 3rd

Noticing a pattern here? We're looking for a young player who is already starting in a team, and playing regular games (15+) who is the number one ruck, who is in abouts his 2nd to 5th year, who is averaging around 55-80, most likely 70s.

Theoretically, we then should be scouring the low 80ss and below average ruckmen for picks. However, unlike last year which gave us Jacobs, McEvoy, Goldstein, Leuenberger and Mumford, the pickings are somewhat slim.

Rules to follow:

- Never pick an injured ruck. Lobbe and Renouf are out.

- Never pick a ruck who is on the outer. Hudson and Brogan are such.

- Don't pick second fiddles who also aren't very good/been around the traps. Wood seems to be this. Watch Jolly however.

So lets have a look:

Martin - will be bump again? Who knows

Ryder - has to compete with two other rucks. Apparently Hille is doing good stuff in training.

Naitanui - 3rd year, and averaging around mid 70s. However, he's not the first ruck.

Roughead - seems to be a smokey. Quigley seems hesitant though.

Bellchambers - has to compete in ruck duties. Worth considering however. In his 5th year, and is increasing in game time.

Bailey - 4th year. May play main ruck with Hale playing forward, and Roughead roaming.

McIntosh - mature aged, is cheap but will compete with Petrie and Goldstein for big man duties.

Smith - mature aged, yet only 2nd year.

Maric - cheap, but wonders whether he'll pan out to be a mid 70s. He's priced to average 52-3 however which is tasty. I doubt he'll have much rucking competition.

So it isn't as clear cut as in the past.

The rest are mostly players who have played a handful of games.

I am wary of Carlton rucks, which makes me worry about the likes of Kreuzer. I feel they will rotate their rucks which is something Mumford, Jacobs, Leuenberger and others didn't contend with. Fremantle's rucks sans Sandi have the same issue of playing second fiddle. If Sandi goes down Fremantle rucks may pose a good pickup.

One question I'd love to be answered is who will ruck for Hawthorn and Geelong. There's some interesting picks there, it will be interesting to see who bobs up.

 

[CrozaN]

What's the Doggies ruck situation with Hudson gone?

Big Will Minson will be our no.1 ruck with Ayce Cordy and Roughead helping him out. I also think Tom Williams will help the ruck duties out as well.

 

[Falchoon]

Maric - cheap, but wonders whether he'll pan out to be a mid 70s. He's priced to average 52-3 however which is tasty. I doubt he'll have much rucking competition.
.

3 problems with Maric

1. Start of last year with Jacobs out and McKernan for company he averaged 50ish (Maric was subbed in 1) (but also Sandilands was subbed in another & Maric was up against Kepler)

2. Points per minute is more Josh Fraser than Sam Jacobs 0.72

3. It's his 7th year

 

[sRaf]

Just wanted to post some stats on four key ruckmen who improved quite a bit last year and are now a viable option for any Dreamteam.

Ben McEvoy
AVG 2010: 59.4
AVG 2011: 90.5
Increased: 31 DT points
Percentage: 52% (Most improved player of 2011)

After taking on the role as St. Kilda's key ruckman, Ben McEvoy surprised many fantasy coaches in mid 2011 by scoring 100+ in five consecutive matches. By scoring above 90 in more than half of his games last season, Ben McEvoy has earned the title of most improved Dream Team player, increasing his average over 2010 by over 50%.
There are certainly safer options for the price McEvoy is at in 2012, though the big man has continually improved from season to season, so he's certainly worth the risk.

Todd Goldstein
AVG 2010: 74.9
AVG 2011: 99.4
Increased: 25 DT points
Percentage: 33%

Like McEvoy, Todd Goldstein surprised many in 2011. Not only did he average 100 points per match, he also averaged the highest amount of hitouts per game, 35.
The positive with Goldstein is that he only averaged 13.7 disposals per game. If North Melbourne improve this year, Goldstein should likely get the ball more often in his hands throughout matches and improve his average.

Matthew Leuenberger
AVG 2010: 77.1
AVG 2011: 92.9
Increased: 16 DT points
Percentage: 20%

Along with McEvoy and Goldstein, Leuenberger was one of the standouts in the ruck divisions last year. Leuenberger has always been highly rated by the Brisbane camp and last year he showed his worth by averaging over 33 hitouts per game, fourth highest in the competition
So far, a third of his points come from his hitouts, which is good news, as he'll begin to accumulate more points with as his career advances. Should be considered as a second ruckman if one is limited by the salary cap

Shane Mumford
AVG 2010: 78.0
AVG 2011: 91.5
Increased: 14 DT points
Percentage: 17%


I personally think the ruck division is in good health this year, especially when compared to years gone by. Before this year, I was always cautious of who I should pick since their weren't many solid ruckmen to choose form. Across the board you'd see the majority sharing the same ruck combination. The top four would have been risky picks starting 2011, but this year I'd expect them to be in quite a bit more sides.

I'll be going with McEvoy and possibly Cox, but if I need the extra cash I may go with another of the above. No more heavy reliance on Cox and Sandilands for me

If you want more stats like these for all positions, I have them available here, here and here.

 

[Keystone agony]

Nice post, i love your site. It would be good if you could give more detail on what players are doing during the games similar to fanfooty. Because i prefer your chat as i don't have to see it and also the setup and easiness to read.

 

[Falchoon]

Just wanted to post some stats on four key ruckmen

Ben McEvoy
Todd Goldstein
Matthew Leuenberger
Shane Mumford

The other major consideration would be Jacobs.

I've done a comparison in Supercoach and find it hard to seperate Leuen, Jacobs and Mumford. I did a strength of opposition analysis (top 10 rucks of LY, avg score against each opponent) - GC easiest to score against, West Coast hardest


*supercoach

Gold Coast	126
W. Bulldogs	120
St Kilda	116
Adelaide	115
Pt Adelaide	114
North Melb.	111
Geelong	110
Collingwood	108
Richmond	108
Melbourne	103
Fremantle	102
Essendon	101
Sydney	98
Brisbane	91
Carlton	89
Hawthorn	87
West Coast	85

*GWS = GC

and Jacobs comes out in front

eg First 6 rounds (lst yr avg, expected avg)

Jacobs	93	100
Leuen	102	101
Sandi	111	110
Mumford	113	116

DT opposition scoring is as follows so the theory won't be miles different

Gold Coast	118
W. Bulldogs	102
St Kilda	102
North Melb.	100
Collingwood	99
Adelaide	98
Geelong	96
Pt Adelaide	91
Sydney	91
Richmond	89
Fremantle	87
Essendon	87
Melbourne	86
Carlton	83
Hawthorn	82
Brisbane	80
West Coast	69

 

[54Dogs]

3 problems with Maric

1. Start of last year with Jacobs out and McKernan for company he averaged 50ish (Maric was subbed in 1) (but also Sandilands was subbed in another & Maric was up against Kepler)

2. Points per minute is more Josh Fraser than Sam Jacobs 0.72

3. It's his 7th year

4. Spud

 

[MrChristo]

These are my reasoning choosing rucks:

1. The rookie rucks seem settled. Ergo, I will focus on the starting rucks, and you should all aim to grab yourself a premium ruck.

2. A premium ruck seems more a player who averages mid 90s rather than 100s. It is very rare for a premium ruck to average 100. Cox is pretty much the only one to do it. Sandilands has never averaged 100+ in a season. So we should aim for someone to average 90s.

3. A ruckman generally kicks in his 3rd-5th year.

Cox: went from 77.5 in his 4th year to 95 in his fifth
Goldstein: 74.5 in his 3rd to 99.3 in 4th
McEvoy: 58.6 in 3rd to 90.4 in 4th
Leuenberger: 77.3 in 4th to 91.4 in 5th
Mumford: 79.9 in 3rd to 91.4 in 4th
Jacobs: 69.6 in 2nd to 87 in 3rd

Noticing a pattern here? We're looking for a young player who is already starting in a team, and playing regular games (15+) who is the number one ruck, who is in abouts his 2nd to 5th year, who is averaging around 55-80, most likely 70s.

Theoretically, we then should be scouring the low 80ss and below average ruckmen for picks. However, unlike last year which gave us Jacobs, McEvoy, Goldstein, Leuenberger and Mumford, the pickings are somewhat slim.

Rules to follow:

- Never pick an injured ruck. Lobbe and Renouf are out.

- Never pick a ruck who is on the outer. Hudson and Brogan are such.

- Don't pick second fiddles who also aren't very good/been around the traps. Wood seems to be this. Watch Jolly however.

So lets have a look:

Martin - will be bump again? Who knows

Ryder - has to compete with two other rucks. Apparently Hille is doing good stuff in training.

Naitanui - 3rd year, and averaging around mid 70s. However, he's not the first ruck.

Roughead - seems to be a smokey. Quigley seems hesitant though.

Bellchambers - has to compete in ruck duties. Worth considering however. In his 5th year, and is increasing in game time.

Bailey - 4th year. May play main ruck with Hale playing forward, and Roughead roaming.

McIntosh - mature aged, is cheap but will compete with Petrie and Goldstein for big man duties.

Smith - mature aged, yet only 2nd year.

Maric - cheap, but wonders whether he'll pan out to be a mid 70s. He's priced to average 52-3 however which is tasty. I doubt he'll have much rucking competition.

So it isn't as clear cut as in the past.

The rest are mostly players who have played a handful of games.

I am wary of Carlton rucks, which makes me worry about the likes of Kreuzer. I feel they will rotate their rucks which is something Mumford, Jacobs, Leuenberger and others didn't contend with. Fremantle's rucks sans Sandi have the same issue of playing second fiddle. If Sandi goes down Fremantle rucks may pose a good pickup.

One question I'd love to be answered is who will ruck for Hawthorn and Geelong. There's some interesting picks there, it will be interesting to see who bobs up.

The how about someone like Warnock?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Will be interesting to see what Maric scored tonight.

 

[Keystone agony]

Will be interesting to see what Maric scored tonight.

And Derickx all those gun Richmond players

 

[SaintsSeptember]

And Derickx all those gun Richmond players

Didn't say I was going to select him

 

[ize_]

Derickx will make you a good amount of cash this year. What else are you looking for in a 4th ruck?

 

[Richo83]

The how about someone like Warnock?

Yeah yeah, look the problem with blue rucks is I fear they'll cannibalise points off each other. Naitanui can be sorta justified given he's rising and Cox is no spring chicken, but Carlton have 2-3 ruckmen at similar ages of development. Kreuzer will probably bump and take points off Warnock.

 

[MrChristo]

Ratten has said during the week that Kruezer will play predominantly forward and Warnock will be the main man ruck-wise, and reading a few reports on the Carlton intra-club suggests that while great at ground level, Kruezer was well beaten when in the ruck.

I didn't take Hampson into consideration tho.

Still, main point being that literally every post on Carlton rucks so far has been Kruezer, and I don't think he'll even be the top scorer at his club*.

[* Rucks only of course.]

 

[Keystone agony]

Ratten has said during the week that Kruezer will play predominantly forward and Warnock will be the main man ruck-wise, and reading a few reports on the Carlton intra-club suggests that while great at ground level, Kruezer was well beaten when in the ruck.

I didn't take Hampson into consideration tho.

Still, main point being that literally every post on Carlton rucks so far has been Kruezer, and I don't think he'll even be the top scorer at his club*.

[* Rucks only of course.]

I hope your not picking Warnock

 

[joeyavalanche]

And Derickx all those gun Richmond players

tom bellchambers thread

 

[yibbida]

Ratten has said during the week that Kruezer will play predominantly forward and Warnock will be the main man ruck-wise, and reading a few reports on the Carlton intra-club suggests that while great at ground level, Kruezer was well beaten when in the ruck.

I didn't take Hampson into consideration tho.

Still, main point being that literally every post on Carlton rucks so far has been Kruezer, and I don't think he'll even be the top scorer at his club*.

[* Rucks only of course.]

Kruezer is like a ruck rover, will get more ball around the ground than our other rucks, so will be the highest scorer of our rucks.

 

[Hawkinspired]

How good did Giles look. I didn't see his stats but he looked incredible around the ground. Unusual to be delisted from Port, who at the time had Brogan and Lade on the wrong side of 30. I noticed some have him as the second ruck, this could now become far more common.

 

[Looney]

Im thinking of using Giles as the second ruckman instead of a second premium and saving 200K - 300k. Im sure Giles should average at least 70 opposed to 90 from a second premium. So is this a fair trade off, 20 dt points for 200k - 300k? I could use this cash for better investment elsewhere.

 

[Hawkinspired]

Im thinking of using Giles as the second ruckman instead of a second premium and saving 200K - 300k. Im sure Giles should average at least 70 opposed to 90 from a second premium. So is this a fair trade off, 20 dt points for 200k - 300k? I could use this cash for better investment elsewhere.

Maybe I'm overreacting, but I got the feeling that Giles could be a Cox like scorer. I was blown away by his ball use and confidence with kicking. He isn't a handball off sort of bloke. Looks like a genuine play maker and given his mature age experience he has a cool head and could get quite a few handball receives ontop of the ball he wins. See how he goes in the full game in two weeks but looks like a 90+ scorer to me.

 

[Looney]

I'm looking for a cheap 4th ruckman. Does anyone have any information on the following ruckmen?

Josh Jenkins (Adel) - $104,200
Ben Dowdell (Adel) - $98,700
Craig James (Adel) - $98,700
Billy Longer (Bris) - $148,200
Tom Derickx (Rich) - $104,200
Jordan Staley (StK) - $85,800
Jay Lever (StK) - $98,700

 

[MrChristo]

I hope your not picking Warnock

I just thought it was a bit strange that he fits the mould as a potential leaper into the keeper class, but wasn't getting a mention anywhere.

As I said, I'd genuinely forgotten about Hampson at the time, but still...

I'm doing things a bit backwards this year I think. Will get the rest of my team right and work on the rucks last.

Just reckon it's very up in the air, and a few of the 'cheaper' guys might surprise.

 

[CJApples87]

Kicked a goal in each of the games as well. He looked very good and suited to the AFL style of game.

 

[Freo2012]

Ess/Freo/WCE NAB games - impressions from the ground

1st game Ess/WCE - Hille/Ryder had it over Lycett/Lynch - fairly predictable, no standouts.

2nd game Freo/Ess - Sandi dominant as would be expected

3rd game Freo/WCE - Cox played and killed it - he really is a machine, probably shared the taps with Sandi but Cox's work around the ground was fantastic.

Sandi seems to be slowing down, not able to jump as much as in the past? and certainly even slower changing direction. Is there a slight permanent incapacity with his foot now? or just not fit enough? Cox seems even better than last year if thats possible.

I was going Leuen/McEvoy but now definitely having Cox in starting team. Sandi is way too much risk (declining?) and will definitely be rested for 4-5 interstate games.

 

[portetdaspet]

I thought I'd go through some of the top value picks in the ruck from this week (based solely on scores).


1. J. Giles (GWS)


He killed it obviously. Ultimate lock for at least a bench spot and I believe strongly is best suited to R2. I think you want to look at your starting team and see how many rookies will start, probably something like 6, and you want them to be the best 6 rookies for the year. If you can find 5 rookies better than this guy I would be surprised.


2. J. Roughead (WBD)


Potential to break out if given number 1 ruck duties, but Minson probably stands in the way. Huge risk at awkward price.


3. A. Cordy (WBD)


Awkwardly priced at 178k. With other options that are cheaper (Giles, Stephenson), he would need to push average to around 85 to be worth a shot, not going to happen.


4. J. Witts (COL)


Possible R4 as he might play a few games for Collingwood, I doubt he will see much time though. Is the chance of making a bit of cash worth paying 13k more for him than an 85k ruck? For me probably not.


5. S. McNamara (COL)


Possible R4, although 6k more expensive than Witts and I can't see him gaining much value. Pass


6. D. Cox (WCE)


Amazingly, based on this week alone Cox is projected to make more cash than some rookies, take Derickx (RIC) as an example. Despite this, I can't justify picking him given he is priced at 107. I see very little potential upside so you will at best get what you pay for. Also, because he shares the bye with Giles, the money saved by going to McEvoy, Mumford, etc can be better spent around the ground. At the moment I like McEvoy and Giles, although Cox will be my main upgrade target, likely after Round 13.