Eagles 2020 season: Finals

[Bacchus]

McGowan is going to need help to be able to change his mind without losing face and coming across as "weak" or "backing down".

Friday's national cabinet and the release of a framework which includes loosening interstate borders is one measure.

What needs to happen is NSW and VIC get a handle on their current outbreaks. If WA get to stage 3 first, there will be pressure to loosen border restrictions. If the outbreaks are under control across the eastern states, McGowan could potentially offer travel exemptions under those circumstances saying that he is satisfied that H&A games pose no great threat to citizens of WA. This also gives him a chance to stick the boot in to the Vics and those over East who "have finally got their act together".

Last week I was deeply concerned, after Fridays national cabinet, I am confident that the border will come down, if not by time the season commences, no more than 4 weeks after.

We shouldn't be concerned about 4 week hub. It is short enough to not impact the season and have the boys emotionally drained and run out of legs. In fact, it may help us by reducing travel burden and give us a good run of home games on the way home, allowing us to build momentum, something never afforded non-Victorian teams.

Good point about McGowan - he has/is painting himself into a corner

I don't think 'the outbreaks' in either NSW or Victoria are either high or extensive. They are not affecting the Swans or Giants or the Melbourne football teams. They are very low by world standards. Mick Malthouse made a very good point which the PM also made, we are not going to get perfection in this. If we wait for that we will have died by other causes before it happens.

I don't know why McGowan feels that he needs to stick the boot in - is he insecure? It's just petty politicking!

I am not as positive as you about a potential four week hub. I think that could kill our season off immediately. It would be especially deflating and sapping knowing that you were one of only a handful of teams that had to do it.
Even if players and coaches say it doesn't matter, it must be at the back of their minds. If every team was doing it, it would be different.

 

[FreeTK]

Good point about McGowan - he has/is painting himself into a corner

I don't think 'the outbreaks' in either NSW or Victoria are either high or extensive. They are not affecting the Swans or Giants or the Melbourne football teams. They are very low by world standards. Mick Malthouse made a very good point which the PM also made, we are not going to get perfection in this. If we wait for that we will have died by other causes before it happens.

I don't know why McGowan feels that he needs to stick the boot in - is he insecure? It's just petty politicking!

I am not as positive as you about a potential four week hub. I think that could kill our season off immediately. It would be especially deflating and sapping knowing that you were one of only a handful of teams that had to do it.
Even if players and coaches say it doesn't matter, it must be at the back of their minds. If every team was doing it, it would be different.

In terms of McGowan, I just think he is doing what he thinks is rights for WA. Let's remember, WA is not the only state with a border right now, and SA has also stated that they are unwilling to allow players from interstate to fly in fly out without quarantine.

The 2 frameworks released over the last couple of weeks help. Notice step 2 is "some interstate travel" and step 3 is "all interstate travel".

McGowan changed his normal media routine on Friday. He came out and spoke to the media 7:30 AWST in order to speak to media before national cabinet, and the release of the framework.

He knew that the framework had elements in it about interstate travel, because he agreed to it at national cabinet. He sought to completely change his regular media routine in order to avoid speaking to the media after the release of the framework, and hence avoid being asked questions about the border. I note that this morning he sent out Cook, which isn't a surprise in itself as he is Health Minister.

Tomorrow he is making an announcement about restrictions in WA moving forward and undoubtably will be asked questions about the border. I expect his tone to soften, and lowering the borders becoming conditional on results on containment on the East Coast. "We need the borders to keep WA safe, nothing has changed from Friday to now. In the future, when the virus is under control in the Eastern states we will revisit the issue, but we won't do it just for football and we will only do it at a time when people from interstate don't pose a risk to the health of West Australians."

Re Hubs: I don't share your view. I think we have a very mature bunch of players and I have been very happy with the "anytime, anywhere" attitude I have seen from them over the last couple of weeks.

 

[Bacchus]

In terms of McGowan, I just think he is doing what he thinks is rights for WA. Let's remember, WA is not the only state with a border right now, and SA has also stated that they are unwilling to allow players from interstate to fly in fly out without quarantine.

The 2 frameworks released over the last couple of weeks help. Notice step 2 is "some interstate travel" and step 3 is "all interstate travel".

McGowan changed his normal media routine on Friday. He came out and spoke to the media 7:30 AWST in order to speak to media before national cabinet, and the release of the framework.

He knew that the framework had elements in it about interstate travel, because he agreed to it at national cabinet. He sought to completely change his regular media routine in order to avoid speaking to the media after the release of the framework, and hence avoid being asked questions about the border. I note that this morning he sent out Cook, which isn't a surprise in itself as he is Health Minister.


Tomorrow he is making an announcement about restrictions in WA moving forward and undoubtably will be asked questions about the border. I expect his tone to soften, and lowering the borders becoming conditional on results on containment on the East Coast. "We need the borders to keep WA safe, nothing has changed from Friday to now. In the future, when the virus is under control in the Eastern states we will revisit the issue, but we won't do it just for football".

Re Hubs: I don't share your view. I think we have a very mature bunch of players and I have been very happy with the "anytime, anywhere" attitude I have seen from them over the last couple of weeks.

"When the virus is under control in the Eastern states" - it is already, this is just hyperbole and blowing his own trumpet.

I can see why there was an initial border closure and why he is very concerned to keep it out of indigenous communities.

To persist with the hard border now and especially banning AFL teams is being political. I would characterise it as points scoring, grandstanding and dog whistling.

I hope you are right about the hub. Time will tell.

P.S. I am not a right wing voter.

 

[FreeTK]

"When the virus is under control in the Eastern states" - it is already, this is just hyperbole and blowing his own trumpet.

I can see why there was an initial border closure and why he is very concerned to keep it out of indigenous communities.

To persist with the hard border now and especially banning AFL teams is being political. I would characterise it as points scoring, grandstanding and dog whistling.

I hope you are right about the hub. Time will tell.

P.S. I am not a right wing voter.

McGowan is rightfully cautious. He is the most popular leader in the country right now with approval above 90%.

But we need to remember there is a state election in 10 months time. His prospects at the election exclusively hinge on how he manages this crisis within WA.

The way in which the virus has impacted different parts of the country mean WA is one of the few states that has an opportunity for a true V shaped economic recovery. In order to do this McGowan needs to keep the virus out of the state to lift restrictions and open up the regions to help revive jobs. The threat of even one case creating a uncontrolled cluster spreading the virus in WA threatens those ambitions. Not to mention the huge costs of treating people in ICU/Hospitals threatening to blow out the state health budget. If the virus is mishandled in WA due to opening up too quickly it will be weaponised and used against him by the opposition.

People are giving up many freedoms and making personal sacrifices in order to contain the virus, but it is not "carte blanche". People will start to become disillusioned and angry by a stance considered too punitive and unnecessary. If he is seen to be keeping the border closed beyond a time that is considered reasonable, it will show in the polls.

If he damages both WA teams chances this years for no apparent reason his popularity will diminish. If you piss off West Coast and Freo supporters in WA, who is going to vote for you?

It is the balancing of these two opposed objectives that he is grappling with right now. Different Premiers are going about things in different ways as the conditions in each state differ, but the challenge for each remains the same. For every state leader it is a case of walking on a high rope without a safety net.

 

[Bacchus]

McGowan is rightfully cautious. He is the most popular leader in the country right now with approval above 90%.

But we need to remember there is a state election in 10 months time. His prospects at the election exclusively hinge on how he manages this crisis within WA.

The way in which the virus has impacted different parts of the country mean WA is one of the few states that has an opportunity for a true V shaped economic recovery. In order to do this McGowan needs to keep the virus out of the state to lift restrictions and open up the regions to help revive jobs. The threat of even one case creating a uncontrolled cluster spreading the virus in WA threatens those ambitions. Not to mention the huge costs of treating people in ICU/Hospitals threatening to blow out the state health budget. If the virus is mishandled in WA due to opening up too quickly it will be weaponised and used against him by the opposition.

People are giving up many freedoms and making personal sacrifices in order to contain the virus, but it is not "carte blanche". People will start to become disillusioned and angry by a stance considered too punitive and unnecessary. If he is seen to be keeping the border closed beyond a time that is considered reasonable, it will show in the polls.

If he damages both WA teams chances this years for no apparent reason his popularity will diminish. If you piss off West Coast and Freo supporters in WA, who is going to vote for you?

It is the balancing of these two opposed objectives that he is grappling with right now. Different Premiers are going about things in different ways as the conditions in each state differ, but the challenge for each remains the same. For every state leader it is a case of walking on a high rope without a safety net.

Do you work in McGowan's office ?

Regarding a 'V-shaped' recovery - my opinion is that this is unrealistic. Things will never be the same as they were before. If there isn't some loosening of the restrictions the state will be economically and socially crippled going into the future just as the Eagles and Dockers will be if they can't play home games. We have to accept the odd breakout of covid as a fact of life until there is a vaccine. Morrison himself has said as much.

90% approval ratings can evaporate very quickly. As we know a day in politics can be a year.

 

[FreeTK]

Do you work in McGowan's office ?

Regarding a 'V-shaped' recovery - my opinion is that this is unrealistic. Things will never be the same as they were before. If there isn't some loosening of the restrictions the state will be economically and socially crippled going into the future just as the Eagles and Dockers will be if they can't play home games. We have to accept the odd breakout of covid as a fact of life until there is a vaccine. Morrison himself has said as much.

90% approval ratings can evaporate very quickly. As we know a day in politics can be a year.

I live in Victoria, by my job is policy development.

V shaped may be overly optimistic, but I can tell you that WA is better positioned than other states. Once the economy opens up, we should be looking at high consumer confidence in WA and high household spending.

After the Coronavirus, China will be looking to invest in large government spending on infrastructure. They will be relying more than ever on WA minerals and resources as it seeks to build their way out of recession.

The concerns about China turning their back on us are overblown and the relationship between the two countries is not as one sided as people will have you believe, our prosperity is strongly reliant on growth in China, but they need us too.

Victoria are in for a world of pain over the coming couple of years. The Victorian economy is largely services based and has 3 primary economic drivers, population growth through migration, large scale infrastructure projects, and education (a 12.6 billion dollar industry in Victoria). Two of those three economic drivers will be greatly impacted by Covid-19.

 

[Bacchus]

I live in Victoria, by my job is policy development.

V shaped may be overly optimistic, but I can tell you that WA is better positioned than other states. Once the economy opens up, we should be looking at high consumer confidence in WA and high household spending.

After the Coronavirus, China will be looking to invest in large government spending on infrastructure. They will be relying more than ever on WA minerals and resources as it seeks to build their way out of recession.

The concerns about China turning their back on us are overblown and the relationship between the two countries is not as one sided as people will have you believe, our prosperity is strongly reliant on growth in China, but they need us too.

Victoria are in for a world of pain over the coming couple of years. The Victorian economy is largely services based and has 3 primary economic drivers, population growth through migration, large scale infrastructure projects, and education (a 12.6 billion dollar industry in Victoria). Two of those three economic drivers will be greatly impacted by Covid-19.

Thank you. Very informative.

 

[DanWCE]

[QUOTE="FreeTK, post: 65132560, member:
After the Coronavirus, China will be looking to invest in large government spending on infrastructure. They will be relying more than ever on WA minerals and resources as it seeks to build their way out of recession.

[/QUOTE]

If it plays out that way I'd imagine WAs population growth will get a bit of a boost as some eastern staters chase the work. That would be welcome in our construction sector, amongst many others.

 

[FreeTK]

Back to the footy!

Here is an interesting article from the Age;

"The AFL is working feverishly on improving its COVID-19 protocols in an attempt to satisfy the West Australian government and police that it would be safe to let Fremantle and West Coast to fly in and out of the state to play games, as the league moves towards announcing a return-to-play model.

The league's desire to exhaust every avenue in discussions with governments before committing to a fixture is also likely to see the AFL delay the announcement of where the early rounds will be played until at least this time next week."

COVID-19: Push to get WA approval as decisions loom

Western Australia's decision to maintain tight border controls continues to create headaches for the AFL as they move towards announcing a return to play model this week.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Luuuc]

Feverishly? Sounds like potential symptoms.

 

[ep2018]

Honestly I dont get it, is having teams stay in hotel quarantine until game day and then having them fly straight home post game is a serious issue?

I've said it before, the bloke is underestimating how pissed the average Eagles/Freo voter will be if we have to play out the season in another state.

 

[Rowan18]

I live in Victoria, by my job is policy development.

V shaped may be overly optimistic, but I can tell you that WA is better positioned than other states. Once the economy opens up, we should be looking at high consumer confidence in WA and high household spending.

After the Coronavirus, China will be looking to invest in large government spending on infrastructure. They will be relying more than ever on WA minerals and resources as it seeks to build their way out of recession.

The concerns about China turning their back on us are overblown and the relationship between the two countries is not as one sided as people will have you believe, our prosperity is strongly reliant on growth in China, but they need us too.

Victoria are in for a world of pain over the coming couple of years. The Victorian economy is largely services based and has 3 primary economic drivers, population growth through migration, large scale infrastructure projects, and education (a 12.6 billion dollar industry in Victoria). Two of those three economic drivers will be greatly impacted by Covid-19.

Great analysis, I am also quite optimistic about our recovery.

Dont forget the effective of stimulus. If VIC and NSW economies are lagging, then the indicators will show the so called "national economy" is struggling. Expect federal government stimulus which will give WA a further shot in the arm.

 

[WCE_phil]

This was my preferred model at first too.

Living in Melbourne my concern about that is the impacts of Victorian restrictions and climate.

Melbourne winter is very different to Perth. Average temperature here in Victoria in June/July is 12 degrees compared to 19 in Perth and the heavy conditions could impact on the Eagles style of play.

A warmer climate in Alice Springs will help West Coast with their kick/mark/down the line style of play.

The climate + restrictions will make a Victorian experience very difficult on the players, they will feel like they are in a gulag. Alice give the options of moving around the community and some of their resorts are first class and will give the players a nice home base to play home.

I like the look of Crown Plaza in Alice, could be fun and family friendly with a private gym and resort 15 minute walk from the middle of town.

View attachment 871350

View attachment 871351

Best hotels and places to stay in Alice Springs - Tourism Australia

See what Alice Springs has to offer with great accommodation options from luxury pool-side suites to affordable, family-friendly studio villas.

www.australia.com

Beyond this year I'd love to play the "heart of the nation" game in Alice Springs each year (as long as it wasn't a WC home game).

Heart of the nation WC vs Brisbane. The saviours of the VFL.

 

[Smeg Head]

Honestly I dont get it, is having teams stay in hotel quarantine until game day and then having them fly straight home post game is a serious issue?

I've said it before, the bloke is underestimating how pissed the average Eagles/Freo voter will be if we have to play out the season in another state.

Its also that the risk factor of those people will be low, there will be testing and treatment capacity available at this current rate. And they have been letting fifo mine workers come in from the east the whole time so its not much different to that.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

McGowan is going to need help to be able to change his mind without losing face and coming across as "weak" or "backing down".

Friday's national cabinet and the release of a framework which includes loosening interstate borders is one measure.

What needs to happen is NSW and VIC get a handle on their current outbreaks. If WA get to stage 3 first, there will be pressure to loosen border restrictions. If the outbreaks are under control across the eastern states, McGowan could potentially offer travel exemptions under those circumstances saying that he is satisfied that H&A games pose no great threat to citizens of WA. This also gives him a chance to stick the boot in to the Vics and those over East who "have finally got their act together".

Last week I was deeply concerned, after Fridays national cabinet, I am confident that the border will come down, if not by time the season commences, no more than 4 weeks after.

We shouldn't be concerned about 4 week hub. It is short enough to not impact the season and have the boys emotionally drained and run out of legs. In fact, it may help us by reducing travel burden and give us a good run of home games on the way home, allowing us to build momentum, something never afforded non-Victorian teams.

I don't share this view. It's highly likely that once restrictions are eased in NSW and Victoria that local transmission rates increase. This will kill the regular fly in fly out model the AFL has pursued. The AFL should have pursued a propper hub system and built some resilience into the system.

Had they gone for a Hub model they could have played games in WA/ SA while NSW/ Vic lifted restrictions and you get to see what happens in response.

 

[FreeTK]

I don't share this view. It's highly likely that once restrictions are eased in NSW and Victoria that local transmission rates increase. This will kill the regular fly in fly out model the AFL has pursued. The AFL should have pursued a propper hub system and built some resilience into the system.

Had they gone for a Hub model they could have played games in WA/ SA while NSW/ Vic lifted restrictions and you get to see what happens in response.

I guess we will have to wait and see how the next few weeks turn out. I was basing my assessment on the fact that outside of Newmarch in NSW and Cedar Meats in Victoria the number or cases in those two states has been quite low, and in fact we have seen active cases in NSW drop by almost 200 just this week.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Do you work in McGowan's office ?

Regarding a 'V-shaped' recovery - my opinion is that this is unrealistic. Things will never be the same as they were before. If there isn't some loosening of the restrictions the state will be economically and socially crippled going into the future just as the Eagles and Dockers will be if they can't play home games. We have to accept the odd breakout of covid as a fact of life until there is a vaccine. Morrison himself has said as much.

90% approval ratings can evaporate very quickly. As we know a day in politics can be a year.

Expensive lockdowns become a waste of time and money if you allow rampant community spread at a later date. Long term methods to suppress the transmission rate and ring-fence outbreaks is needed for sure.

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

We should just play our first 6 games as away games in Victoria.

You could achieve this in a 35 day away stint . Both us and the Dockers play 6 Victorian teams . Hopefully the 14day quarintine would be lifted by the time we flew home

Then 6 games at home one being against freo as our home game since they travelled round 1 .

That would take us to 13 games including round 1 . This would take us to about mid August with 4 games to complete to get a 17 round fixture complete.

Would leave us with 2 home and 2 away games for both us and Freo to play out to get to a finals series starting mid September.

Our final away games against non Vic team's. No silly bye round before finals with normal finals fixtures for top 8 .

Can't see why the other teams could do a month stint away playing team's in a different state for 2 weeks then going to another state . Say WA then NSW or QLD then SA or the northern team's doing a month in Victoria also .

 

[FreeTK]

We should just play our first 6 games as away games in Victoria.

You could achieve this in a 35 day away stint . Both us and the Dockers play 6 Victorian teams . Hopefully the 14day quarintine would be lifted by the time we flew home

Then 6 games at home one being against freo as our home game since they travelled round 1 .

That would take us to 13 games including round 1 . This would take us to about mid August with 4 games to complete to get a 17 round fixture complete.

Would leave us with 2 home and 2 away games for both us and Freo to play out to get to a finals series starting mid September.

Our final away games against non Vic team's. No silly bye round before finals with normal finals fixtures for top 8 .

Can't see why the other teams could do a month stint away playing team's in a different state for 2 weeks then going to another state . Say WA then NSW or QLD then SA or the northern team's doing a month in Victoria also .

I don't mind this idea, although the latest thoughts are to reboot the season with local derbies to minimise the number of weeks spent interstate by WA/SA teams.

We should set up in Melbourne or Gold Coast and play round 3-7 as away games.

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

I don't mind this idea, although the latest thoughts are to reboot the season with local derbies to minimise the number of weeks spent interstate by WA/SA teams.

We should set up in Melbourne or Gold Coast and play round 3-7 as away games.

Love to set up in Melbourne and play 3-4 games at the G .
Make it a home away from home

 

[FreeTK]

News today is that the AFL has banned AFL listed players from playing in second tier competitions.

I am wondering if that was something the SA/WA government have demanded as part of any FIFO model.

We haven't heard anything from WA Government on AFL issues for the last 2 days.

My thoughts are things are happening behind the scenes.

 

[Truckosaurus]

Haven't heard anything from Qld or NSW about it either. Is that because 1. they're rugby states and their governments don't care, 2. the AFL control over the four teams is so complete they'll play wherever they're told to, or 3. those states are happy with reopening their borders?

 

[FreeTK]

Haven't heard anything from Qld or NSW about it either. Is that because 1. they're rugby states and their governments don't care, 2. the AFL control over the four teams is so complete they'll play wherever they're told to, or 3. those states are happy with reopening their borders?

The two Northern states already have an agreement in place for NRL teams to train and travel between the borders, and therefore it is expected that the exemptions would also apply to AFL.

I think the AFL is making headway with SA/WA government, whether it is enough to see us begin training and then begin the season in WA is yet to be seen.

Another thing to note. Victorian Sports minister today state that Vic would be happy to accomodate the two WA teams and provide them with exemptions.

 

[Obeanie1]

No matter what happens and how the season eventually gets underway it will in no way happen in a way that non Victorian teams get any bit of an advantage.
Playing away for several weeks in a row to bank home games so we get to play Vic clubs at Optus for multiple weeks in a row...... won't happen.

So you are saying we will be forced to play home games interstate?

That is basically what you are saying.

We don't play play 3 or 4 away games in a row in a Vic hub or travel to NSW / QLD and then finish the season with multiple home games at Optus.

OK we will just have to wait and see.

IMO I think your tin foil hat is on too tight.

 

[ep2018]

So you are saying we will be forced to play home games interstate?

That is basically what you are saying.

We don't play play 3 or 4 away games in a row in a Vic hub or travel to NSW / QLD and then finish the season with multiple home games at Optus.

OK we will just have to wait and see.

IMO I think your tin foil hat is on too tight.

I think we'll be playing non vic teams in Melbourne and having them count as home games sadly.