EDDIE MCGUIRE proposes 6-week, 21 match finals series with 16 teams. It's a mess and here's why.

[Dan26]

Eddie has his heart set on this thing, but there are problems everywhere. He's calls the first two weeks of the finals "Qualifying Rounds" but really, they are just the first two weeks of a 6-week 21-match finals series. A final-16.



21 week home away season:

Week One:
1st vs 7th - 1st Qualifying Final
3rd vs 5th - 2nd Qualifying Final
2nd vs 8th - 3rd Qualifying Final
4th vs 6th 4th Qualifying Final

9th vs 15th - 1st Elimination Final
11th vs 13th - 2nd Elimination Final
10th vs 16th - 3rd Elimination Final
12th vs 14th - 4th Elimination Final

Four Qualifying Final winners progress to week 3
Four Qualifying Final losers play the four Elimination Final winners


Week Two:
5th vs 16th - 1st Semi Final
6th vs 15th - 2nd Semi Final
7th vs 14th - 3rd Semi Final
8th vs 13th - 4th Semi Final
Winners progess to week 3


Week Three (traditional final-8 effectively starts)
1 v 4 - 5th Qualifying Final
2 v 3 - 6th Qualifying Final
5 v 8 - 5th Elimination Final
6 v 7 - 6th Elimination Final


Week Four
Semi Finals as normal


Week Five
Preliminary Finals as normal


Week six
Grand Final as normal


Probabilities
1 10.9375%
2 10.9375%
3 10.9375%
4 10.9375%
5 10.9375%
6 10.9375%
7 10.9375%
8 10.9375%

9 1.5625%
10 1.5625%
11 1.5625%
12 1.5625%
13 1.5625%
14 1.5625%
15 1.5625%
16 1.5625%


There are problems everywhere with this mess. In Eddie's (admirable) desire to reduce dead-rubbers he is ignoring the trade-off for doing that. The trade-off is that they totally reduce the importance of the top teams winning games.

For example, If 1st lose their first game in week one of the finals, and 16th win their first game of the finals, then from week 2 of the finals, BOTH those teams have a 3.125% chance of winning the premiership, with both those teams needing to win 5 knockout games from that point onwards to win the premiership. So, a team with a possible 21-1 win-loss record would be on the same mathematical footing as a team with a 5-17 win-loss record. That is the unavoidable trade-off of trying to minimize dead rubbers. Trying to solve a solution somewhere creates an issue elsewhere.

You cannot have a 21-1 team on equal footing with a 5-17 team after one loss to one and one win to the other.

Having 16 teams in the finals also creates what I call a reverse dead-rubber scenario. For example if two teams make the finals and 16 miss out, you have lots of dead rubbers, because many teams can't make the finals. Obviously. But the reverse is also true with 16 teams making the finals as it creates dead rubbers with teams unable to miss the finals.

That's why half (or half minus one - 8 - or half plus one - 10) is much better. In my view 10 is the best. It's fine to want to reduce dead-rubbers, but dead-rubbers can only be reduced in two scenarios and both scenarios must exist at the same time. Scenario One: Teams outside the finals can still get in, and Scenario two: Teams IN the finals can still miss out. Eddie's system fails the second scenario.

I see what he's trying to do, but it's a mess.

 

[carlton_99]

Any finals series where a team can be 3rd last at the end of a H+A season and still win the premiership is ridiculous

 

[Dan26]

Any finals series where a team can be 3rd last at the end of a H+A season and still win the premiership is ridiculous

Eddie is using semantics to justify it. He calls the first two weeks of this 6-week Final series "Qualifying Rounds". Then it becomes a final-8 two weeks later. They're finals. It's a 21-match 6-week finals series

That's like saying that under the current system, the first two weeks of the finals aren't finals. They are just "Qualifying matches" and we have really only had a knockout final-4 from the Preliminary Final weekend onwards since 1994. So, for all this time, it's only ever been a final-4 and everything preceding it are just Qualifying Rounds before the finals. Who knew eh?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Any finals series where a team can be 3rd last at the end of a H+A season and still win the premiership is ridiculous

So the old fashion final 4 should be banned because last once won it?

 

[Orfullrules]

The Eddie Spaghetti Finals System. Must have taken two bottles of red to come up with this.

 

[carlton_99]

So the old fashion final 4 should be banned because last once won it?

If there is another war we can bring it back

 

[Bunk Moreland]

So in essence…

To stop “dead rubbers”, Eddie is going to have the finals series feature 16 of the 18 clubs.

Well, I guess you’ve done it Ed.

 

[Teen Wolf]

We probably shouldn't even risk legitimising Eddie's dumb ideas by acknowledging them, but it is a football forum after all...

Even if everybody wanted this system, it's impossible to implement when there are always going to be things like five-day breaks, stadium sharing and limited timeslots to circumvent on the fly.

 

[parano1a]

There are problems everywhere with this mess. In Eddie's (admirable) desire to reduce dead-rubbers he is ignoring the trade-off for doing that. The trade-off is that they totally reduce the importance of the top teams winning games.

Great analysis. I think they should just go with the simple 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th wildcard round, but only once there are 19 or 20 teams in the H&A.

 

[Dan26]

Great analysis. I think they should just go with the simple 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th wildcard round, but only once there are 19 or 20 teams in the H&A.

I'm all for a knockout final-10, which I think is a much better system. The "wildcard" thing is really just a 5-week 11-match final-10. I prefer a 4-week knockout final-10... nine finals over four weeks. It's more efficient.

 

[parano1a]

Even if everybody wanted this system, it's impossible to implement when there are always going to be things like five-day breaks, stadium sharing and limited timeslots to circumvent on the fly.

2020-21 showed us this can be done. But Dan hit the nail on the head... this proposed idea greatly reduces the importance of the 21 round home and away season.

 

[tiger_tough]

What's wrong with the finals as it is?

 

[Elixuh]

What is Eddie's number? The figure he will take to go and live quietly and leave us alone.

Imagine having a 21 week H&A which doesn't matter.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

Great analysis. I think they should just go with the simple 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th wildcard round, but only once there are 19 or 20 teams in the H&A.

Do it now. It would create more interest in the remaining rounds. As it stands with 4 rounds to go, probably only 9 teams can make the eight.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Eddie has his heart set on this thing, but there are problems everywhere. He's calls the first two weeks of the finals "Qualifying Rounds" but really, they are just the first two weeks of a 6-week 21-match finals series. A final-16.



21 week home away season:

Week One:
1st vs 7th - 1st Qualifying Final
3rd vs 5th - 2nd Qualifying Final
2nd vs 8th - 3rd Qualifying Final
4th vs 6th 4th Qualifying Final

9th vs 15th - 1st Elimination Final
11th vs 13th - 2nd Elimination Final
10th vs 16th - 3rd Elimination Final
12th vs 14th - 4th Elimination Final

Four Qualifying Final winners progress to week 3
Four Qualifying Final losers play the four Elimination Final winners


Week Two:
5th vs 16th - 1st Semi Final
6th vs 15th - 2nd Semi Final
7th vs 14th - 3rd Semi Final
8th vs 13th - 4th Semi Final
Winners progess to week 3


Week Three (traditional final-8 effectively starts)
1 v 4 - 5th Qualifying Final
2 v 3 - 6th Qualifying Final
5 v 8 - 5th Elimination Final
6 v 7 - 6th Elimination Final


Week Four
Semi Finals as normal


Week Five
Preliminary Finals as normal


Week six
Grand Final as normal


Probabilities
1 10.9375%
2 10.9375%
3 10.9375%
4 10.9375%
5 10.9375%
6 10.9375%
7 10.9375%
8 10.9375%

9 1.5625%
10 1.5625%
11 1.5625%
12 1.5625%
13 1.5625%
14 1.5625%
15 1.5625%
16 1.5625%


There are problems everywhere with this mess. In Eddie's (admirable) desire to reduce dead-rubbers he is ignoring the trade-off for doing that. The trade-off is that they totally reduce the importance of the top teams winning games.

For example, If 1st lose their first game in week one of the finals, and 16th win their first game of the finals, then from week 2 of the finals, BOTH those teams have a 3.125% chance of winning the premiership, with both those teams needing to win 5 knockout games from that point onwards to win the premiership. So, a team with a possible 21-1 win-loss record would be on the same mathematical footing as a team with a 5-17 win-loss record. That is the unavoidable trade-off of trying to minimize dead rubbers. Trying to solve a solution somewhere creates an issue elsewhere.

You cannot have a 21-1 team on equal footing with a 5-17 team after one loss to one and one win to the other.

Having 16 teams in the finals also creates what I call a reverse dead-runner scenario. For example if two teams make the finals and 16 miss out, you have lots of dead rubbers, because many teams can't make the finals. Obviously. But the reverse is also true with 16 teams making the finals as it creates dead rubbers with teams unable to miss the finals.

That's why half (or half minus one - 8 - or half plus one - 10) is much better. In my view 10 is the best. It's fine to want to reduce dead-rubbers, but dead-rubbers can only be reduced in two scenarios and both scenarios must exist at the same time. Scenario One: Teams outside the finals can still get in, and Scenario two: Teams IN the finals can still miss out. Eddie's system fails the second scenario.

I see what he's trying to do, but it's a mess.

What a moronic system.

Why have a home and away series at all then if it doesn’t matter where you finish under such a stupid system.

May as well rest half your side throughout the year and just smash them out for a six week finals campaign.

 

[Teen Wolf]

2020-21 showed us this can be done.

Didn't realise Eddie's plan includes unleashing another pandemic.

Otherwise players, clubs, venues and broadcasters aren't surrendering the rights they've secured which make this plan unfeasible.

 

[Atavistic]

Looks like being our best chance of a finals win.

 

[Whiskers]

I'm all for a knockout final-10, which I think is a much better system. The "wildcard" thing is really just a 5-week 11-match final-10. I prefer a 4-week knockout final-10... nine finals over four weeks. It's more efficient.

Well done on the analysis in the OP Dan.
I came here looking for this thread as I found it absolutely ridiculous he tried to make a final 16 sound good.
What really got me though was the puppets who sat alongside him like Tom Morris and Hird applauding it.

The only thing I disagree with you on is a knockout final 10. I’ve always liked the way AFL finals are with double chances, a week off etc. Knockout is just too basic and if we are using your % logic 1st and 6th have same chance of winning.
Don’t want that.
My idea is a top 10 but why only have 7v10 and 8v9 in the 1st week?
Want money? Make it a proper finals series and have 3v6 and 4v5 aswell in the 1st week aswell.
Why do we need such terms as wildcards? They are not wildcards it’s just more elimination finals, wildcards are for the NFL who have conferences/divisions.


Anyway great OP.

Oh and than there was Sloane, almost forgot he was on but don’t expect much from him.

Top 16…. Goodness me.

 

[Dan26]

Well done on the analysis in the OP Dan.
I came here looking for this thread as I found it absolutely ridiculous he tried to make a final 16 sound good.
What really got me though was the puppets who sat alongside him like Tom Morris and Hird applauding it.

The only thing I disagree with you on is a knockout final 10. I’ve always liked the way AFL finals are with double chances, a week off etc. Knockout is just too basic and if we are using your % logic 1st and 6th have same chance of winning.
Don’t want that.
My idea is a top 10 but why only have 7v10 and 8v9 in the 1st week?
Want money? Make it a proper finals series and have 3v6 and 4v5 aswell in the 1st week aswell.
Why do we need such terms as wildcards? They are not wildcards it’s just more elimination finals, wildcards are for the NFL who have conferences/divisions.


Anyway great OP.

Oh and than there was Sloane, almost forgot he was on but don’t expect much from him.

Top 16…. Goodness me.

Yeah watching Eddie's puppets just nod their heads and agree with him was infuriating. I don't think they even understood half of it.

 

[JackFlash]

Eddie's been sniffing the Ajax, it's fried his brain. Why have a H&A season at all under his mad plan? I know the world has gone mad, but Eddie needs to book himself into the bin!

 

[Gavin Excell]

While it won't happen because of the tv rights and the requirement for big games between rivals, I like the more simple idea of all teams just playing each other once a year, where playing home and away is taken in turns each year.
18 game season with a mid year break; a top 8 finals system which is the fairest and best way to determine a premier; no bloody opening rounds and byes in r2 either

 

[NetworkNerd]

Too much in one go.
Try the already discussed wildcard weekend with 7th-10th
This year it would mean one of Suns/Hawks/Dogs/Giants/Dockers don't miss out and it would give Port/Swans/Carlton something to fight for (10th Spot)

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I’ve got a better idea for getting rid of dead rubbers.

It might be a little controversial, but I think once people understand it, they’ll come to agree.

Here it is - just cancel the season altogether. No footy at all.

Like Eddie’s plan, you can’t deny that it gets rid of dead rubbers!

 

[demondavey]

Great analysis. I think they should just go with the simple 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th wildcard round, but only once there are 19 or 20 teams in the H&A.

100% agree.

 

[Coolangatta]

Too much in one go.
Try the already discussed wildcard weekend with 7th-10th
This year it would mean one of Suns/Hawks/Dogs/Giants/Dockers don't miss out and it would give Port/Swans/Carlton something to fight for (10th Spot)

Wildcard is shit.

Do it like this:

Wk 1
A: 3 v 6
B: 4 v 5
C: 7 v 10
D: 8 v 9

Wk 2:
E: 1 v Winner B (4 or 5)
F: 2 v Winner A (3 or 6)
G: Loser B v Winner D (4 or 5 v 8 or 9)
H: Loser A v Winner C (3 or 6 v 7 or 10)

Wk 3:
I: Loser E v Winner H (1,4 or 5 v 3,6,7 or 10)
J: Loser F v Winner G (2,3 or 6 v 4,5,8 or 9)

Wk 4:
K: Winner E v Winner J
L: Winner F v Winner I

Wk 5:

GF

Hope that confuses you more than Eddie’s plan.