Election Odds

[Ted Pellitis]

Liberal: $1.40
Labor: $3.30

Republicans: $1.52
Democrats: $2.86

UK Labour: $1.26
Conservatives: $5.00

Libs/Rep: $2.12
Lib/Dem: $4.00
Lab/Rep: $5.01
Lab/Dem: $9.43

Libs/Rep/UKL: $2.68
Lib/Dem/UKL: $5.04
Lab/Rep/UKL: $6.32
Libs/Rep/Con: $10.64
Lab/Dem/UKL: $11.89
Lib/Dem/Con: $20.02
Lab/Rep/Con: $25.08
Lab/Dem/Con: $47.19

3 re-elected Govts: $2.68
dan warna's wet dream coming true: $47.19

 

[DaveW]

I'm getting on Kerry if he slips out to $3.


Here's Centrebet's latest:

Will Pauline HANSON (IND) Get Voted Into The Senate?

1. YES $3.50
2. NO $1.25


$1.25 isn't that enticing on its own. But its well worth combining with something else as part of a multi-bet.

 

[Ted Pellitis]

it was $6 somewhere yesterday they reported on the news

 

[DaveW]

it was $6 somewhere yesterday they reported on the news

Apparently Centrebet started the YES option at $6.

Musta been a bit of money placed on Pauline.

 

[Ted Pellitis]

Apparently Centrebet started the YES option at $6.

Musta been a bit of money placed on Pauline.

here's a way to influence an election... put over the odds prices (like $6). So many people are gonna jump on that and vote to win money.

 

[Ted Pellitis]

Does anyone know why Kerry's running so behind in the betting now?

 

[DaveW]

Does anyone know why Kerry's running so behind in the betting now?

There's been some favourable polls for Bush recently. So he's now considered the front-runner.

 

[Ted Pellitis]

There's been some favourable polls for Bush recently. So he's now considered the front-runner.

I know that... has anything in particular turned the tide? They were neck and neck for ages, and for a time Kerry was in front.

 

[DaveW]

I know that... has anything in particular turned the tide? They were neck and neck for ages, and for a time Kerry was in front.

The swift boat veterans ads, however dubious in their accuracy, apparently hurt Kerry.

 

[BlueMark]

I think that Bush will get in now. The evangelical right have mobilised in even larger numbers than they did in 2000. That vote alone will pretty much get him in.

 

[funkyfreo]

Polls out today suggest it is neck and neck again in the states.

I think as far as betting goes incumbency is a big factor. If you look in the past then there is only every about 25-35% chance of a change of government.

 

[Black Panther]

Centrebet -

Lib/NP $1.28
ALP $3.30

Bush $1.40
Kerry $2.70

 

[DaveW]

I think that Bush will get in now. The evangelical right have mobilised in even larger numbers than they did in 2000. That vote alone will pretty much get him in.

You could also mount an argument that the fringe left (i.e. Naderites) are more firmly behind Kerry than they were Gore. And conventional wisdom is that high turnout favours Democrats.

 

[Tinker]

Dont forget it is also unusual (thought not impossible) for a President not to be allowed a second term....

Personally I thought Bush was beatable but Kerry aint the man to do it in my opinion.



PS I think Pauline is a better chance than people like to think......

 

[DaveW]

Dont forget it is also unusual (thought not impossible) for a President not to be allowed a second term....

Been a mixed bag over the last quarter of a century.

Clinton was re-elected, Bush (snr) wasn't, Reagan was, Carter wasn't.

Personally I thought Bush was beatable but Kerry aint the man to do it in my opinion.

We'll see.

PS I think Pauline is a better chance than people like to think......

Pfft.

 

[Tinker]

Been a mixed bag over the last quarter of a century.

Clinton was re-elected, Bush (snr) wasn't, Reagan was, Carter wasn't.


We'll see.


Pfft.

I guess we'll see about Pauline. i'm as scared by it as anyone.


Carter was a dud from the start......no questions and the Iranian hostage crisis didnt help him. Bush senior was probably unlucky in terms of there was nood for change after 12 years of republican presidency - that hasnt happened this time.

 

[Argent]

Centrebet -

Lib/NP $1.28
ALP $3.30

Bush $1.40
Kerry $2.70

Centrebet is for mugs -

Betfair:

Lib/NP $1.39
ALP $3.40

Bush $1.52
Kerry $2.88

 

[Tim56]

Pauline won't get up.

And Kerry looks shot.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

[DaveW]

Ank Kerry looks shot.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Is this the first election where both candidates have been written off?

I don't think electoral-vote.com is the best projection site. It only uses the last poll, no matter what the source.

Click New Jersey for example, they've given the state to Bush when all bar one poll has Kerry ahead.

Plenty of states still in play.

 

[Tim56]

Fair and reasonable, as usual Dave, but the very fact that Jersey is in play is a very worrying sign.

 

[Black Panther]

Lib/NP $1.33
ALP $3.00

Howard was $1.45 when I last looked on Saturday so been money the last few days for a Coalition win

 

[Black Panther]

As of 1:15pm Tuesday

Lib/NP $1.25
ALP $3.50

 

[Black Panther]

As of 6:45pm Tuesday

Lib/NP $1.20
ALP $4.00

 

[dr nick]

As of 6:45pm Tuesday

Lib/NP $1.20
ALP $4.00

The big money is starting to pour in.

 

[Black Panther]

Extrapolating all of Centrebet marginal seat betting

Lib/NP 80 (-3)
ALP 67 (+4)
IND 3 (-)
GRN 0 (-1)

Notional Lib/NP majority of 10

Lib/NP - Bass
ALP Gains - Solomon, Hindmarsh, McMillan, Parramatta (and Cunningham from the Greens, no odds on this)

No odds on Greenway either which most predict will be a Liberal Gain (and I still think myself Parramatta will be a Lib retain)