Election Prediction Thread

[Giants FC]

We did this at the last election in 2007. And as it appears the election is about to be called, time to get the 2010 version online.

The redistribution has been a big free kick to the ALP, with 6 formerly Coalition seats now notionally Labor. These are Gilmore, Macarthur and Greenway in NSW, Herbert and Dickson in Queensland and Swan in WA. So under the new boundaries, we have the ALP on 88 seats, the Coalition on 59 and 3 Independents (New England, Kennedy and Lyne), which would all otherwise be safe National seats.

In the Senate, the following are up for re-election:
NSW - 3 Coalition, 3 ALP
Vic - 3 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Family First
Tas - 3 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
Qld - 3 Lib, 1 Nat (4 Coalition), 2 ALP
SA - 3 Lib, 3 ALP
WA - 3 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
ACT - 1 ALP, 1 Lib
NT - 1 CLP, 1 ALP

In doing your predictions of which seats will change hands, this site may help you work out your swings in each state:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/


So which seats do you think will change hands? Post your predictions here, and as you change your mind post updates. I'll put up the online spreadsheet again similar to what I did last time.

 

[Adz]

Labor to win with an increased majority.

 

[Inferno]

In doing your predictions of which seats will change hands, this site may help you work out your swings in each state:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

I got:

ALP 81
Coalition 66
Others 3

However I think the Greens will win Melbourne (the predictor is only ALP vs Coalition) and the ALP will hang on in Bennelong (which it has going to the Coalition by 0.1%). It also has the ALP holding Brand by a casual 0.0006%.

So which seats do you think will change hands? Post your predictions here, and as you change your mind post updates. I'll put up the online spreadsheet again similar to what I did last time.

ALP gains:
McEwen (Vic)
[strike]Sturt (SA)[/strike]
La Trobe (Vic)
Boothby (SA)


Coalition gains:
Longman (Qld)
Macarthur (NSW)
Gilmore (NSW)
Macquarie (NSW)
Robertson (NSW)
Herbert (Qld)
Hasluck (WA)
Swan (WA)
Dawson (Qld)
Flynn (Qld)
Solomon (NT)
Page (NSW)
Forde (Qld)
[strike]Dickson (Qld)[/strike]

Greens gain Melbourne (Vic)

Gives a total of:

ALP 77
Coalition 69
Others 4

2PP vote of 52-48.

Macarthur, Dickson, Gilmore and Herbert are notional ALP from redistributions.

Edit: The Senate

NSW - 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
Vic - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
Qld - 3 Coalition, 3 ALP
WA - 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
SA - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
Tas - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
ACT - 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
NT - 1 ALP, 1 Coalition

New Senate is:

ALP 34 (+2)
Coalition 33 (-4)
Greens 8 (+3)
Xenophon 1
Family First 0 (-1)

Edits in red and [strike]strikes[/strike]

 

[Giants FC]

I'm tipping a narrow Coalition win, on the back of big swings against Labor in NSW and Queensland - I got Coalition 78, ALP 69, plus the 3 independents.

Seats to change hands:
NSW - Libs to pick up Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Greenway, Lindsay. Nats to pick up Page.
Vic - status quo
Tas - Libs to gain Bass
Qld - Coalition to gain Dickson, Herbert, Dawson, Flynn, Longman, Forde
SA - status quo
WA - Libs to gain Swan
ACT - status quo
NT - CLP to gain Solomon

In the Senate:
NSW - 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
Vic - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
Tas - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
Qld - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
SA - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
WA - 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Greens
ACT - 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
NT - 1 ALP, 1 Coalition

 

[stuart27]

I haven't sat down and thought through a prediction yet, but I'd be very interested to see what happens in Kooyong this election.

The incumbent Liberal (and only liberal Liberal in the Reps) Petro Georgiou is leaving, and the Libs candidate Josh Frydenberg is the one who caused a rift in the local branch by trying to knife him for the 2007 election.

Kooyong is one of those places where the candidate gets a lot more support than the party (Higgins under Costello is another example) so I think if Georgiou comes out and endorses another candidate the consequences would be huge.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being another Libs vs Greens seat (Labor poll well but their candidates are largely irrelevant).

 

[evo]

Where is master Psephologist Dave?

These moments are his raison d'etre

 

[Inferno]

GaF I simply can't see the ALP losing despite how bad they have been in some areas. Way too many people simply don't see any appeal in having Abbott as PM. With NSW I think Labor will spend truckloads to assure people that Federal Labor and NSW Labor are two different things, while in Qld I think the heat surrounding the mining tax has gone down enough so that the swings aren't devastating for the ALP.

I haven't sat down and thought through a prediction yet, but I'd be very interested to see what happens in Kooyong this election.

The incumbent Liberal (and only liberal Liberal in the Reps) Petro Georgiou is leaving, and the Libs candidate Josh Frydenberg is the one who caused a rift in the local branch by trying to knife him for the 2007 election.

Kooyong is one of those places where the candidate gets a lot more support than the party (Higgins under Costello is another example) so I think if Georgiou comes out and endorses another candidate the consequences would be huge.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being another Libs vs Greens seat (Labor poll well but their candidates are largely irrelevant).

Certainly Kooyong did love Petro, I couldn't see Petro supporting a non-Liberal candidate though. The ALP got three times as many votes in Kooyong as the Greens, and while I'm sure that there will be a fair amount of people who voted for Petro (as opposed to the Liberals) will vote for the Greens, I still can't see that being enough to pass the ALP. In the highly unlikely event they do, it's even more unlikely that there will be a 10% swing from the Liberals in the 2PP vote for either the ALP or Greens to get up unless something extraordinary happened.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

I think we'll wind up with something like ALP 79/Lib 68. They'll get a fright but they wont lose.

 

[Grin]

Remember that 6 years ago the Liberal party did very well in2004 and gained control of the senate, a performance they are unlikely to repeat this year. Remember also that the Greens almost won a seat in victoria but Labor preferences saw Family First over the line.

I think the Greens will get 8% to 10% primary vote and regain balance of power.

As previously posted: My thoughts with regards to the make up of the Senate after the next election is that Labor's total number of seats in the Senate willl remain as is. They will gain 1 in Tassie from the Libs and lose a seat in SA to the Greens.

I think the Liberal Party will lose 2 seats. In Tassie to Labor and in QLD to the Greens.

The Greens will be the winers and pick up three seats. In SA from Labor, in Vic from Family First and in QLD from the Liberal Party.

Here's what I think will happen when comparing 2004, 2007 and 2010:

ACT
2004 1 each to liberal and labor
2007 No change

2010 No change

NT
2004 1 each to liberal and labor
2007 No change

2010 No change

Tas
2004 Lib/nat 3. Labor2. Green 1
2007 Lib/nat 2. Labor 3. Greens 1.

2010 Lib/nat 2. Labor 3. Green 1.
I think Labor could pick up one here on 2004 but a fairly small swing to Liberal from the 2007 vote will see the status quo maintained.

SA
2004 3 each to liberal and labor
2007 Lib/nat 2. Labor 2. Green 1 (The Greens just pipped Labor). Ind 1

2010
I am predicting that The Greens will pick up a seat from Labor as they just missed out in 2004

So that's a gain of 1 for The Greens at the expense of Labor

WA
2004 Lib/Nat 3, Labor 2, Green 1
2007 No Change

2010 No Change

QLD
2004 Lib/Nat4. Labor 2
2007 Lib/Nat 3. Labor 3

2010 In the final count it was a pretty close thing between Labor and the Greens in 2007
I'm predicting in 2010 Lib/Nat 3. Labor 2. Greens 1.
So the Greens pick up one of the Lib/Nat seats from 2004

Vic
2004 Lib/Nat 3, Labor 2, Family first 1
2007 Lib/Nat 3. Labor 3.

2010 Very complex count in Vic and a very close run between Labor and the Greens for the last seat with Labor just coming out in front in 2007.
I think the Greens may well pick up one from Family First here

Nsw
2004 Lib/Nat 3, Labor 3
2007 No change
2010 No change



Obviously I have a conflict of interest as I am a Greens supporter. However I think the above outcome is realistic.

 

[Belnakor]

WA - Libs to gain Swan

Libs already have swan. You probably mean Hasluck.

 

[Giants FC]

Libs already have swan. You probably mean Hasluck.

Under the redistribution Swan is notionally Labor. But I think the Libs will win it.

 

[Dry Rot]

Seats to change hands:
NSW - Libs to pick up Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Greenway, Lindsay. Nats to pick up Page.
Qld - Coalition to gain Dickson, Herbert, Dawson, Flynn, Longman, Forde

Interesting post and thread.

IIRC the ALP got an historically high vote in Qld, and some seats were always at risk there.

But that's an awful lot of NSW seats to fall there - Glory and Fame, could you please expand on your thinking on those NSW seats?

 

[dr strange]

Port Stephens will be tough for the coalition Baldwin does not have all Howards pork to administer labour must surely look at how he held on last time.Dobell also tough for labour the O'neal affair may extend up the coast even into the southern regions of the hunter seats but the suburbs around newcastle are rock solid labour

 

[dr strange]

Interesting to see how Gillard handles the nsw government ,Rudd was always distant as he did not want any of their mud to stick on him and was also unfortunate that labour polling near the penrith by election was abysmal.Rudd and the nsw government where so bad that Gillard had to visit nsw and spend the day smiling and hugging with premier Ken.Noticed today that the nbn is going to be speeded up in nsw and some more pork will surely come from ken and julia b4 the election

 

[AsianWithAFro]

It will be close but unfortunately Gillard will get the token vote due to her being a woman. If Abbott wasn't the leader, liberal would probably roll these clowns.

 

[Clay Davis]

Saturday 25 September

Freo 10 6 66
Collingwood 7 20 62

 

[Belnakor]

Under the redistribution Swan is notionally Labor. But I think the Libs will win it.

its not really "changing hands" though.

I'm interested to see you are picking big changes in NSW but not calling Hasluck in WA

 

[Pessimistic]

I haven't sat down and thought through a prediction yet, but I'd be very interested to see what happens in Kooyong this election.

The incumbent Liberal (and only liberal Liberal in the Reps) Petro Georgiou is leaving, and the Libs candidate Josh Frydenberg is the one who caused a rift in the local branch by trying to knife him for the 2007 election.

Kooyong is one of those places where the candidate gets a lot more support than the party (Higgins under Costello is another example) so I think if Georgiou comes out and endorses another candidate the consequences would be huge.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being another Libs vs Greens seat (Labor poll well but their candidates are largely irrelevant).

My location. So you think my vote might actually be relevant ?

Interesting to note Kooyong got the biggest "Yes" vote in the country back in the Republic referendum

 

[Pessimistic]

Interesting post and thread.

IIRC the ALP got an historically high vote in Qld, and some seats were always at risk there.

But that's an awful lot of NSW seats to fall there - Glory and Fame, could you please expand on your thinking on those NSW seats?

I went along with the "swings in NSW and Qld" until I looked at the majorities.

There would be some hefty swings to change some of those seats

 

[finders]

The ALP will stay the same or pick up a few seats.

 

[stuart27]

My location. So you think my vote might actually be relevant ?

Interesting to note Kooyong got the biggest "Yes" vote in the country back in the Republic referendum

Depends on how hard the Greens press. I've heard rumours from the Greens camp that they are actively seeking out Georgiou, so it'll be interesting to see if that leads anywhere. If it does it'll be big news just for the lack of 'loyalty' to Abbott so it'd get a bit of press.

Regardless, I don't see Petro as a member of the Liberal party for much longer.

EDIT: Also interesting to note that the Liberal candidate for Kooyong, Josh Frydenburg, has launched a very comprehensive campaign in the electorate, something which the Liberals haven't done for years. He was out at Glenferrie station this morning, getting ignored mostly.

I wonder if he's worried.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Labor to win due to the "vagina" factor and help from the Greens.

 

[Inferno]

It will be close but unfortunately Gillard will get the token vote due to her being a woman. If Abbott wasn't the leader, liberal would probably roll these clowns.

The Libs don't really have too many prospects in terms of leaders though, Turnbull is still tainted from utegate and won't be electable for another few years when everyone will have forgotten that saga and his entire first tilt as leader, Hockey simply isn't strong enough as a leader, and from there we quickly go to 'contenders' such as Julie Bishop and Kevin Andrews

 

[Juddism]

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=387180

for those who missed the 2007 thread...

 

[Giants FC]

Interesting post and thread.

IIRC the ALP got an historically high vote in Qld, and some seats were always at risk there.

But that's an awful lot of NSW seats to fall there - Glory and Fame, could you please expand on your thinking on those NSW seats?

The Labor name is very much on the nose in NSW.
If you were to draw a semi-circle with a radius 50km from the Sydney CBD, you'd go through most of the marginal seats - Dobell, Robertson, Macquarie, Lindsay, Macarthur. Issues of population control - congestion and infrastructure, the exponential rise in the cost of keeping a roof over your head - are biting hard. Tony Abbott can run an effective campaign here by promising to keep interest rates down, like Howard did in 2004. The fact that Julia Gillard flew Bradbury up to Darwin to launch the East Timor solution indicates to me that Labor are shitting themselves about holding Lindsay; and the other seats in that 50km arc are more marginal.
The only marginal seats inside that arc are Bennelong and Greenway. Bennelong only needs a small swing to fall to the Libs. Greenway has changed significantly under the redistribution, was previously a Liberal seat; and there is no sitting member. But similar issues apply in Greenway.
The regional seats are a harder call - I'm not sure about Page; I may end up revising that one to Labor hanging on. Eden-Monaro is the traditional bellweather seat.

its not really "changing hands" though.

I'm interested to see you are picking big changes in NSW but not calling Hasluck in WA

WA didn't swing to Labor last election, and there's already a high 2PP vote for the Libs in WA. You know WA better than I do, but I don't see the scope for a big swing to the Libs in WA.