Election Prediction Thread

[AsianWithAFro]

The Libs don't really have too many prospects in terms of leaders though, Turnbull is still tainted from utegate and won't be electable for another few years when everyone will have forgotten that saga and his entire first tilt as leader, Hockey simply isn't strong enough as a leader, and from there we quickly go to 'contenders' such as Julie Bishop and Kevin Andrews

Yeah there's no prospects for the Libs at the moment but I think Turnbull could be back. After all he only lost by one vote.

 

[desie]

The Labor name is very much on the nose in NSW.
If you were to draw a semi-circle with a radius 50km from the Sydney CBD, you'd go through most of the marginal seats - Dobell, Robertson, Macquarie, Lindsay, Macarthur. Issues of population control - congestion and infrastructure, the exponential rise in the cost of keeping a roof over your head - are biting hard. Tony Abbott can run an effective campaign here by promising to keep interest rates down, like Howard did in 2004. The fact that Julia Gillard flew Bradbury up to Darwin to launch the East Timor solution indicates to me that Labor are shitting themselves about holding Lindsay; and the other seats in that 50km arc are more marginal.
The only marginal seats inside that arc are Bennelong and Greenway. Bennelong only needs a small swing to fall to the Libs. Greenway has changed significantly under the redistribution, was previously a Liberal seat; and there is no sitting member. But similar issues apply in Greenway.

From what I'm hearing the ALP don't have as much to worry about as they might have a couple of months ago.

The Libs have preselected a couple of complete duds in Hughes and Lindsay in particular, and the ALP have a very good candidate in Macquarie so I'm told to go up against Louise Markus who has moved from Greenway.

Received a pretty damning pamphlet in the mail over the weekend without any ALP reference but authorised by Sam Dastyari (NSW ALP President), which gave it to Markus about her support for Workchoices amongst other things, and the fact that she only moved to the electorate as she thought it would be easy to win.

Pretty effective to be honest the day after the election was called, clearly the ALP are far better organised in their marginal seat campaigning (as usual).

Observed some pamphlets being handed out by the Libs in Lindsay this morning, and from the response they received I don't think that they'd be holding their breath

For me the best the Libs can hope for is to hold the line, I'd say a handful of seats will change hands both ways but at the end of the day there will be little difference in the final standings seat wise.

 

[Belnakor]

The Labor name is very much on the nose in NSW.

will be a very interesting case study that will really decide if people vote Federal on Local issues. if Gillard holds all those seats and Labor get hammered in the state election will definately be some good political science fodder!

WA didn't swing to Labor last election, and there's already a high 2PP vote for the Libs in WA. You know WA better than I do, but I don't see the scope for a big swing to the Libs in WA.

True. However with the similar margins of Hasluck and Swan + the laziness of Irons in Swan + lots of money being put into Swan and little into Hasluck by the ALP, i'm suspecting a status quo result for WA with Hasluck the natural Lib seat changing hands and Swan being its normal close run (will probably end up coming down to the ballot draw) with Labor getting its nose infront.

 

[P.A.F.C]

Dunno about factors in other states but here's a short summary of what I think will happen in SA;
Very little...

Labor should maintain most of the seats they maintained/collected in the last federal election. Hindmarsh/Makin are a sure thing. If there was a big swing against Labor, then Kingston and maybe Wakefield might come under pressure, though I doubt that will happen.

Liberals should keep Sturt, which Pyne managed to just hang onto in 2007. Grey is a safe Liberal seat, no chance for Labor there, though interesting that they put a candidate that did ok in Flinders for the state election, that is a massive Liberal safe zone.

IMO opinion, Labor are a good chance for Boothby, even though the bookies and Antony Green doesn't think so. It should have been a labor seat following the 2007 election. If anyone else had been put as the Labor candidate, instead of bloody Nicole Cornes, they would have romped it in. Cornes somehow managed to get a swing against her(Picked up a bit on the 2 party preferred), despite Labor doing ridiculously well in SA and nationally. Also worth mentioning that in the recent SA state election, a similar(albeit smaller) seat was maintained by Labor, despite an overall swing to the Liberals.

Put the SA 07 swing to Labor on and it's the Libs that need to do the work. Obviously, there isn't the amount of optimism around Labor as last time but is still going to be a close call and i'll tip Labor for an upset.

There is a bit of speculation around Adelaide. Jane Lomax Smith was a shock loser in the state electoral of Adelaide, after holding a similar margin that Kate Ellis currently has. Obviously there aren't the same amount of local issues in this federal election and the federal electorate is obviously larger and thus less inner city. However, Ellis might not be as popular as some might think and Adelaide is a seat that has gone against the grain before - Ellis somehow managed to get the seat in the 04 election.

So a good chance for nothing to change, decent chance for +1 to Labor and outside chance for the Libs to pick up one seat.

 

[Giants FC]

OK psephologists, we've got 2 weeks to go; and the polls have been fluctuating but there may be a trend emerging.
So time to start predicting which seats will change hands. I'll track them here:
http://www.harboursport.com/election2010.xlsx

At this stage I'm not going to change any of my predictions. The longer the campaign goes, the more I suspect the big swings in NSW and Queensland are on. I could see Labor maybe picking up a couple of seats in Victoria, but I won't change my selections at this stage.

 

[tandino]

My very initial thoughts are that the Libs will hold Casey (not that this was in any doubt) and lose McEwen.

Have to give more thought to areas outside my own backyard.

 

[Inferno]

Made a few changes to mine.

 

[dr strange]

Still think the big swings against NSW labor will be in its safe seats a 3% swing wont necessarily mean a loss of 7 seats

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

OK psephologists, we've got 2 weeks to go; and the polls have been fluctuating but there may be a trend emerging.
So time to start predicting which seats will change hands. I'll track them here:
http://www.harboursport.com/election2010.xlsx

At this stage I'm not going to change any of my predictions. The longer the campaign goes, the more I suspect the big swings in NSW and Queensland are on. I could see Labor maybe picking up a couple of seats in Victoria, but I won't change my selections at this stage.

So let me get this right you were predicting a 19 seat swing to the Coalition a few weeks ago???!!!

 

[Sigh RolleyEyes]

Interesting to note Kooyong got the biggest "Yes" vote in the country back in the Republic referendum

Survey says............buh baaahhhhhh

http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/1999_Referendum_Reports_Statistics/summary_republic.htm

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

I still predict having a vagina will win the election.

 

[pazza]

Labor win with 1.6% swing delivering:

Hinkler, Cowan, Stirling, Cowper, Ryan, Sturt, Paterson, Hughes, La Trobe, McEwen and Bowman,

 

[Inferno]

I still predict having a vagina will win the election.

Considering the election will essentially be decided in NSW and Qld, both of which have unpopular female Premiers, I'm not so sure about that.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I still predict having a vagina will win the election.

Being one will work against Abbott.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Being one will work against Abbott.

He does have hot daughters though.

Gillard brings nothing but a head like a road kill weasel to the table.

 

[Pessimistic]

Survey says............buh baaahhhhhh

http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/1999_Referendum_Reports_Statistics/summary_republic.htm

Ah yes - beaten by melb, syd and canberra.

still not bad for one of the safest liberal seats

 

[Inferno]

^ Got pipped by Melbourne Ports as well. Kooyong doesn't seem like an anomaly though, the seat I live in, Menzies, which is conservative enough to elect Kevin Andrews without him even needing to go to preferences had 60% voting Yes. Higgins and Goldstein are safe Liberal seat in Melbourne that overwhelmingly voted Yes as well.

 

[pazza]

My changes:

Liberals Gain: Dickson, Macarthur, Gilmore, Macquarie, Hasluck, Robertson, Herbert, Swan
Labor Gain: Sturt, LaTrobe, McEwen

Total Swing nationally: 0.5% to the Coalition

 

[Pessimistic]

He does have hot daughters though.

Gillard brings nothing but a head like a road kill weasel to the table.

Will anyone admit to improper thoughts about our PM >

I'm pretty sure abbott has...

 

[tandino]

Labor 75 (-8)
Coalition 72 (+8)
Independent 3 (0)


Coalition
Robertson (NSW)
Bennelong (NSW)
Eden-Monaro (NSW)
Lindsay (NSW)
Deakin (VIC)
Bass (TAS)
Dawson (QLD)
Dickson (QLD)
Longman (QLD)
Forde (QLD)
Hasluck (WA)
Solomon (NT)

Labor
Greenway (NSW)
McEwan (VIC)
Latrobe (VIC)
Sturt (SA)

This is, naturally, assuming that the Libs will retain all their seats that are now notionally Labor apart from Greenway.

I feel that Libs are a good shot to win back Deakin, which is an area which despite being traditionally marginal, have consistently voted Liberal in the recent past. Wouldn't be surprised if Jason Wood manages to hold on to Latrobe either. Melbourne, who knows. But in the grand scheme of things, be it Greens or Labor, it wouldn't matter much if it got down to a hung Parliament.

EDIT: Knew I stuffed something up. Forgot about Rob Oakeshott.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Sarah Henderson is a chance to take back Corrangamite from Labor.

Was only 1500 votes in it last time.

 

[Giants FC]

With a week to go, the polls seem to be all over the place. But it appears likely there'll be a swing against Labor in NSW and Queensland and a swing to Labor in Victoria and SA. How big the swings are remains depends who you believe and what stories and rumours you're hearing - I'm hearing that Labor people are shitting themselves about Western Sydney and have conceded they'll lose both Central Coast seats.

Anyway, I've re-crunched my numbers, and I'll now predict a hung parliament.
NSW - Coalition gain Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Page, Dobell, Greenway and Lindsay.
Vic - Labor gain McEwan and LaTrobe.
Tas - Coalition gain Bass.
ACT - Status quo.
Qld - Coalition gain Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, and Forde.
SA - Labor gain Sturt
NT - Coalition gain Solomon
WA - Status quo

Labor 74, Coalition 73, Independents 3.

 

[P.A.F.C]

How are Labor getting Sturt? Doubt people dislike Pyne that much

 

[finders]

With a week to go, the polls seem to be all over the place. But it appears likely there'll be a swing against Labor in NSW and Queensland and a swing to Labor in Victoria and SA. How big the swings are remains depends who you believe and what stories and rumours you're hearing - I'm hearing that Labor people are shitting themselves about Western Sydney and have conceded they'll lose both Central Coast seats.

Anyway, I've re-crunched my numbers, and I'll now predict a hung parliament.
NSW - Coalition gain Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Page, Dobell, Greenway and Lindsay.
Vic - Labor gain McEwan and LaTrobe.
Tas - Coalition gain Bass.
ACT - Status quo.
Qld - Coalition gain Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, and Forde.
SA - Labor gain Sturt
NT - Coalition gain Solomon
WA - Status quo

Labor 74, Coalition 73, Independents 3.

Very difficult to predict atm But it will be a seat by seat contest in the marginals. If the country ends up with Abbott and his pack of old ex Howard cronies well we most likely deserve it.If the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate with Labor I dont see Abbott getting much though from next year. He will also be beholding to News Corp and the Miners who have pushed hard for a LNP govt( check out ALL their papers (sic) today.I find it strange that the FTA TV stations are not getting behind the ALP as they have the most to lose from an Abbott Govt.

 

[pjcrows]

Final outcome:
ALP 79 seats, LIB 67 seats, OTH 4 seats

QLD: Herbert (LIB Gain), Flynn (LIB Gain), Dickson (LIB Gain), Dawson (LIB Gain), Forde (LIB Gain)
NSW: Robertson (LIB Gain), Gilmore (LIB Gain), Macquarie (LIB Gain), Macarthur (LIB Gain)
VIC: McEwen (ALP Gain), La Trobe (ALP Gain), Melbourne (GRN Gain)
WA: Swan (LIB Gain), Hasluck (LIB Gain)
SA: Boothby (ALP Gain)
NT: No change
TAS: No change

ALP Gain 3 seats, LIB Gain 11 seats, GRN Gain 1 seat
Overall ALP net loss of 9 seats