Election Prediction Thread

[Pessimistic]

How would it be if the ALP lose all western sydney but still hold power ?

Surely it makes the libs the 'blue collar' party ?

 

[HarryTiger]

How would it be if the ALP lose all western sydney but still hold power ?

Surely it makes the libs the 'blue collar' party ?

Blue collar people work hard and contribute to society, it makes complete sense for them to avoid the latte party.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

HT, the lame cliches there are cringeworthy enough, but when you don't even make it clear what party you might be talking about, that shot loses all direction, and hence becomes even more pointless....

 

[volcboy]

With a week to go, the polls seem to be all over the place. But it appears likely there'll be a swing against Labor in NSW and Queensland and a swing to Labor in Victoria and SA. How big the swings are remains depends who you believe and what stories and rumours you're hearing - I'm hearing that Labor people are shitting themselves about Western Sydney and have conceded they'll lose both Central Coast seats.

Anyway, I've re-crunched my numbers, and I'll now predict a hung parliament.
NSW - Coalition gain Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Page, Dobell, Greenway and Lindsay.
Vic - Labor gain McEwan and LaTrobe.
Tas - Coalition gain Bass.
ACT - Status quo.
Qld - Coalition gain Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, and Forde.
SA - Labor gain Sturt
NT - Coalition gain Solomon
WA - Status quo

Labor 74, Coalition 73, Independents 3.

Recent polling and an increasing Greens vote make a Coalition win in Bass highly unlikely. Losing Jodie Campbell as a candidate may actually be an advantage for Labor.

 

[tandino]

What happens if it is a draw? 75 seats each?

 

[Sigh RolleyEyes]

Golden goal.

Nah, I reckon someone might jump ship.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

What happens if it is a draw? 75 seats each?

If it gets that close you'd think Oakeshott and Katter would back the Coalition wouldn't you?

 

[stmookeyj]

Look at the House a little later, but my Senate picks are as follows

NSW: 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 NAT
VIC: 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 NAT, 1 GRN
QLD: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN
SA: 3 ALP, 3 LIB
WA: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
TAS: 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
ACT: 2 ALP
NT: 1 ALP, 1 CLP

TOTAL: 19 ALP, 12 LIB, 4 GRN, 2 NAT, 2 LNP, 1 CLP

 

[Inferno]

^ 2 ALP Senators in the ACT?? No way. More chance that the Greens will pick up the second seat, and that is very unlikely.

What happens if it is a draw? 75 seats each?

Won't happen, but if it did then both major parties would agree to dissolve Parliament and have another election since Parliament would be unworkable for everyone. Dunno if they could do that directly or if the HoR has to pass a motion of no confidence (and there would be a majority for one party because the Speaker can't vote). If the independents + Coalition have 76 they'll back them, anything less and they'll back the ALP. In any case everyone gets held to ransom to pork-barrel spending in rural area, yay.

 

[pazza]

Changed mine again to a national 1.0% swing to the Coalition - they get swings towards them in NSW, QLD and WA.

Still leaves: Labor 79, Coalition 68, Independents 3

 

[desie]

Final outcome:
ALP 79 seats, LIB 67 seats, OTH 4 seats

QLD: Herbert (LIB Gain), Flynn (LIB Gain), Dickson (LIB Gain), Dawson (LIB Gain), Forde (LIB Gain)
NSW: Robertson (LIB Gain), Gilmore (LIB Gain), Macquarie (LIB Gain), Macarthur (LIB Gain)
VIC: McEwen (ALP Gain), La Trobe (ALP Gain), Melbourne (GRN Gain)
WA: Swan (LIB Gain), Hasluck (LIB Gain)
SA: Boothby (ALP Gain)
NT: No change
TAS: No change

ALP Gain 3 seats, LIB Gain 11 seats, GRN Gain 1 seat
Overall ALP net loss of 9 seats

I think this will be pretty close to the mark.

Not sure about Boothby and Swan changing hands though.

The Libs need to be in a net positive position when you take into account everywhere bar QLD and NSW to be a hope, and I just can't see it.

There's plenty of anecdotal evidence about that the marginals in QLD and NSW are coming back in some way to Labor, I'd say an overall gain to the Libs in net terms of around 8 seats is likely.

 

[DeanoT]

^ 2 ALP Senators in the ACT?? No way. More chance that the Greens will pick up the second seat, and that is very unlikely.

Won't happen, but if it did then both major parties would agree to dissolve Parliament and have another election since Parliament would be unworkable for everyone. Dunno if they could do that directly or if the HoR has to pass a motion of no confidence (and there would be a majority for one party because the Speaker can't vote). If the independents + Coalition have 76 they'll back them, anything less and they'll back the ALP. In any case everyone gets held to ransom to pork-barrel spending in rural area, yay.

The speaker can vote in the case of a tie.

ALP 80, Coalition 67, Inds 3.

 

[Giants FC]

The speaker could vote in the event of a tie - but with an even number of members including the speaker, take the speaker out and there wouldn't be a tie unless a member abstained.
Won't happen in this election as there are independents, but if it was to be 75 seats each, the existing government would have first right to attempt to form a new government. They could get themselves the numbers by finding a glory-hunting opposition member to become the speaker. But an opposition speaker could be a problem for a government - by forcing ministers to actually answer questions during question time; or by suspending government MPs for unruly conduct ahead of cricital votes on legislation.

 

[albundysmate]

labor will win by about 15 seats. i think the thought of dumbo abbott and dunce hockey is not a good thought for people and that's what will coast them. if there is 1 person i want to see get voted out is the member for sturt. i don't to hear his whining voice any more

 

[SJ]

Sarah Henderson is a chance to take back Corrangamite from Labor.

Was only 1500 votes in it last time.

Yep, the major poll in yesterday's Fairfax press showed Henderson gaining Corangamite too.

Definitely a big chance for the Coalition.

 

[Bomber32]

ALP: 78 seats
Coalition: 69 seats
Independent: 3 seats

Qld, NSW and WA will record strong swings against Labor. There will be an overall national swing of about 1.0% against Labor which won't be enough to tip them out of office.

 

[SJ]

What happens if it is a draw? 75 seats each?

Begs the question; why aren't there 151 seats?

 

[camsmith]

Lib gain:

QLD: Flynn, Dickson, Herbert, Dawson, Forde, Bonner

NSW: Gilmore, Robertson, Macarthur, Macquarie, Bennelong, Page (nat),

Vic: Corangamite, Deakin

WA: Swan, Hasluck

ALP gain:

La Trobe

Lib 75 seats, Labor 72, Ind 3

(i think?)

 

[tandino]

Begs the question; why aren't there 151 seats?

Probably has something to do with the constitution, in that there has to be as close to double the amount of seats in the House of Reps as opposed to the Senate as is possible.

 

[bombermick]

Lib gain:

QLD: Flynn, Dickson, Herbert, Dawson, Forde, Bonner

NSW: Gilmore, Robertson, Macarthur, Macquarie, Bennelong, Page (nat),

Vic: Corangamite, Deakin

WA: Swan, Hasluck

ALP gain:

La Trobe

Lib 75 seats, Labor 72, Ind 3

(i think?)

Corangamite will be a Greens gain as opposed to the Libs.

 

[SJ]

Corangamite will be a Greens gain as opposed to the Libs.

No it won't.

 

[tandino]

Corangamite will be a Greens gain as opposed to the Libs.

No chance of that happening. Greens only polled 8% in 2007

 

[dr nick]

Going off sportsbet, assuming parties will win the seat if their odds are less than $1.50 leaves

ALP 72
Coalition 66
Greens 1
Independent 3
Too close to call - 8 (Corangamite VIC, Forde QLD, Solomon NT, La Trobe VIC, Lindsay NSW, Hasluck WA, Dawson QLD, Herbert QLD)

Labor hold 7 of those seats, but it looks like they'll hang onto at least 3 - Liberal are favourite in 5.

If the Coalition hold 62 seats before polling closes on WA theyll win with independent support

 

[stmookeyj]

I'll give my final numbers for the House.....

LABOR: 79
COALITION: 67
GREENS: 1
INDEPENDENTS: 3

 

[tandino]

I think all these "notionally Labor" seats are overstating the margin between Labor and the Coalition more than is warranted. For a start, most (if not all?) of these seats are located in NSW and QLD, the margin that Labor "holds" over the Coalition is significantly marginal in all cases except for Greenway, and the Coalition has the advantage of incumbency in all these seats.

I fully expect that the Coalition will hold all those seats apart from Greenway.