Preview Elimination Final - Essendon V Carlton, MCG

[Skeeta Olly]

Why bring in Thornton ? His s**t.

What about it?

 

[quadival]

Ok guys... time to make "I am Carlton" stand for "I am LOSER"

 

[yaco55]

Hendo thrashed him last time and he will be vastly more underdone this time.

Hotspot means, no training or running, so he will continue to lose condition, hot spot will not heal playing every second week.

Let us pray he plays and sits in the goal square as a liability.

You are jesting !

Hurley outclassed henderson on the night.

From memory Hurley was our 2nd best player.

 

[yaco55]

lol sure sure.

Of course Welsh is injured !

Cant get through a full game.

 

[table tennis]

Let's just smash s**t up on Sunday. Starting with chris judds shoulders

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I'm not sure why some Blues fans are so confident. This really is 50/50. Taking the 2 knee recos into account we virtually finished 2 games behind with a harder draw.

Still think Carlisle may go forward, can't see how Carlton could cover Hill/ryder, Hurley and Carlisle.

Fletch, Pears and Myers is enough height up back against the blues.

Like to see both NLM and Lonergan play but can't see how they could fit them both in.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

I'm still really really scared about the rain, they're good in the rain.

Beat Sydney in Sydney when it was pouring rain, I know that's only one example of a good game they've played in the rain (excluding the Port game) but we virtually haven't played a game this year under those conditions, but you'd think we'd struggle with our talls.


I might be paranoid.

 

[fishardansin]

I'm not sure why some Blues fans are so confident. This really is 50/50. Taking the 2 knee recos into account we virtually finished 2 games behind with a harder draw.

Still think Carlisle may go forward, can't see how Carlton could cover Hill/ryder, Hurley and Carlisle.

Fletch, Pears and Myers is enough height up back against the blues.

Like to see both NLM and Lonergan play but can't see how they could fit them both in.

I think/hope the bench will be Reimers, NLM, Carlisle and Colyer sub. If it is a wet day then I'd expect Lonergan to be a late change for Carlisle.

 

[The_Wookie]

Features the Carlton v Essendon Final Previews of the various Thursday night footy shows.

AFL Teams (Fox), The Game Plan (One HD) and The Footy Show (9). Includes Damian Barretts report on Brett Rattens contract.


[youtube]x8EHg7n_zJU[/youtube]

 

[dave_27]

Did someone just post Hendo thrashed Hurley last time??

LOL was I watching a different game? Everytime we went forward (hardly any) Hurley looked like scoring.

Henderson was well beaten.

 

[Jade]

We really should win this game.

The prevailing thought is that Carlton's midfield is superior to ours, when all measurable KPIs say it is NOT.

Check these out

2011 season averages:

Contested Possessions

Essendon: 150
Carlton: 149

Contested Marks

Essendon: 14
Carlton: 12

Clearances

Essendon: 39
Carlton: 40

Inside 50

Essendon: 50
Carlton: 50

Tackles

Essendon: 70
Carlton: 70

1%ers

Essendon: 55
Carlton: 52

Goals

Essendon: 15
Carlton: 15

And we did ours with a shockingly hard draw, and missing Watson, Hocking and Winderlich for chunks of the season.

Our problem is not the middle of the ground. Our issue has been that interrupted seasons to our primary defensive players has meant we have leaked too many goals.

We win this game, wet or dry, because our own midfield has a decidedly harder edge than Carlton's front running version (Watson, Hocking, Howlett and co are solid ****s). Even by breaking even, our vastly superior collection of tall players (and in particular Hurley and Ryder) will put this game beyond the Blues.

Add to that the intense pressue that its idiotic board has put on them to perform in this game, and they are cooked. If we break away to a three or four goal lead quickly, the fragile mindset of that football club will have it collapse.​

 

[Kong]

LOL what a bunch of muppets in those previews.

"Carlton won by 70 points last time and they had no answer for Judd"; good thing we'll regain the bloke who blanketed him in round 4.

"Dyson is a B Grader, Simpson an A Grader, Stanton a B grader, Howlett C." Yeah nice guesswork, Johnson.

 

[Jade]

"Carlton won by 70 points last time and they had no answer for Judd"; good thing we'll regain the bloke who blanketed him in round 4.

I'm actually glad leading into a final against Carlton that we lost our last match up by a wide margin.

If it's coaching panel believes a tenth of the crap it's fan base does, they'll be grossly under-prepared and cop an absolute hiding.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Features the Carlton v Essendon Final Previews of the various Thursday night footy shows.

AFL Teams (Fox), The Game Plan (One HD) and The Footy Show (9). Includes Damian Barretts report on Brett Rattens contract.


[youtube]x8EHg7n_zJU[/youtube]

Cheers for that.

But my word they are some terrible previews. So glad I don't watch any of that rubbish.

 

[Howard Moon]

We really should win this game.

The prevailing thought is that Carlton's midfield is superior to ours, when all measurable KPIs say it is NOT.

Check these out

2011 season averages:

Contested Possessions

Essendon: 150
Carlton: 149

Contested Marks

Essendon: 14
Carlton: 12

Clearances

Essendon: 39
Carlton: 40

Inside 50

Essendon: 50
Carlton: 50

Tackles​

Essendon: 70
Carlton: 70​

1%ers​

Essendon: 55
Carlton: 52​

Goals​

Essendon: 15
Carlton: 15​

And we did ours with a shockingly hard draw, and missing Watson, Hocking and Winderlich for chunks of the season.​

Our problem is not the middle of the ground. Our issue has been that interrupted seasons to our primary defensive players has meant we have leaked too many goals.​

We win this game, wet or dry, because our own midfield has a decidedly harder edge than Carlton's front running version (Watson, Hocking, Howlett and co are solid ****s). Even by breaking even, our vastly superior collection of tall players (and in particular Hurley and Ryder) will put this game beyond the Blues.​

Add to that the intense pressue that its idiotic board has put on them to perform in this game, and they are cooked. If we break away to a three or four goal lead quickly, the fragile mindset of that football club will have it collapse.​

good post that one...

just shows our 'unfashionable' midfield may just be up to the task.
i love it when stats do actually tell the proper story.

but there is one thing stats can't measure. leadership. That bloody chris judd can do things that stats cant measure...take the whole team on his back...will himself onto every contest and get them over the line singe handedly.

watson has done it for us on a few occasions but judd does it alot. Jeez i hope we sit on him and dont give him an inch.

 

[lamaros]

Sam Newman talks a lot of sense for such a silly man.

If we were playing Geelong would anyone be saying we would win because we beat them last time? No? Then what does the last game against Carlton, when we were missing our three key players, have to do with anything?

On the teams in this time we surely have a chance.

 

[Big Kahuna Boot]

..definitely a 50/50 game.. .... ..formlines and ladder positions don't mean much between our two clashes at the best of times.. ..factor in the unsettled line-ups of both teams the last month or so, factor in a few players that have missed footy recently on both sides.. ..the effects of late seasons byes, rain, etc etc.... ..all i can count on, is a fully packed MCG with a tonne of fans screaming their voices hoarse..

..no good luck or soup for you..!!..

 

[lamaros]

Oh and David Parkin, the sole guy in any of the previews to have coached a club, let alone won a premiership, rates Stanton. Who's surprised?

 

[fishardansin]

Jade I don't get those stats. What are they based on? Is it just the players who are named in the midfield each week? Are they averages or totals. Are they the players that are playing this week?

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

Sam Newman talks a lot of sense for such a silly man.

If we were playing Geelong would anyone be saying we would win because we beat them last time? No? Then what does the last game against Carlton, when we were missing our three key players, have to do with anything?

On the teams in this time we surely have a chance.

I think his just taking that 'silly man' character on the footy show for entertainment, he seems like a very intelligent bloke.

Listening to him speaking on radio.

 

[Jade]

Jade I don't get those stats. What are they based on? Is it just the players who are named in the midfield each week? Are they averages or totals. Are they the players that are playing this week?

The stats are team season averages for 2011, that is, what Carlton and Essendon have averaged on those particular stats this year.

I chose those particular stats (CP, CM, CL, T, %ers, and so on) to point out the fallacy that Carlton is better at 'winning the ball'. Stats say they are not.

So if they aren't better at winning the ball, our last result was heavily skewed by injury and suspension, why would most pick Carlton to win?

I say they aren't looking close enough.

If the facts say we on average win as much or more of the ball, and our KPPs are superior to that of the Blues we win.

 

[Kong]

Oh and Dennis Pagan, the sole guy in any of the previews to have coached a club, let alone won a premiership, rates Stanton. Who's surprised?

David Parkin, but yeah.

Brad Johnson has no idea.

Brent Stanton is on the same level as Ricky Dyson, apparently.
Below Kade Simpson.

 

[lamaros]

David Parkin, but yeah.

Brad Johnson has no idea.

Brent Stanton is on the same level as Ricky Dyson, apparently.
Below Kade Simpson.

Posting just after I wake up on my phone, not the smartest thing. Lets forget I did that.

 

[fishardansin]

The stats are team season averages for 2011, that is, what Carlton and Essendon have averaged on those particular stats this year.

I chose those particular stats (CP, CM, CL, T, %ers, and so on) to point out the fallacy that Carlton is better at 'winning the ball'. Stats say they are not.

So if they aren't better at winning the ball, our last result was heavily skewed by injury and suspension, why would most pick Carlton to win?

I say they aren't looking close enough.

If the facts say we on average win as much or more of the ball, and our KPPs are superior to that of the Blues we win.

Ok I think I was thrown by contested possession. I thought that was high but on reflection when teams are averaging between 300 and 400 possessions per game I spose not.

What a lot of people are saying that works well for Carlton is that they score from stoppages a lot.

Also I would back Essendon to beat them at contested possessions if Watson, Hocking and Lonergan were all playing. What is the worry in that case is that they will beat us in spread and run. For this reason their midfield is ahead of us right now. Once Zaka, Melk and Colyer put on more size that wont be an issue and having Dempsey and Winderlich back will help as well. I believe our mid will go past them for depth soon. Probably not next year but certainly the year after.

We already have them covered hands down for KPPs and contested ball winners. This could be enough to win the game. If we lock down hard on their running players and move the ball quickly by foot we should be beat them.

 

[Jade]

We already have them covered hands down for KPPs and contested ball winners. This could be enough to win the game. If we lock down hard on their running players and move the ball quickly by foot we should be beat them.

Which is why the idea of rain (which seems to bother a few Essendon supporters) doesn't worry me in the slightest. Clog the game up, win the hard ball.

The rain blunts the KPP influence, but will only enhance Hurley's advantage over opposition (he will contest, scrag and bring the ball to the ground in the wet). Outside run will be heavily affected, which has a greater effect on Judd and Murphy than Watson and Hocking.

I am seriously confident that we can grind that team into the ground.