Preview Essendon v Collingwood - Thursday 16/2 - 7.40 EDT - Etihad Stadium - Ethan's write up page 3 post 68

[Whispering_Jack]

Pending fitness of course. I thought Bellcho was looking at a return for JLT 1

Not sure. Even pending fitness, I don't think they will all play all 3 games. I'd say a max of 2 for most of them would be more likely.

 

[Bombermania]

Considering its a practive match, Bellchambers doesn't need to be 100% fit, just enough to run around, have a few taps, and not get injured.

 

[Whispering_Jack]

TBC no chance of returning for the JLT series. I guess you could say that at this stage his return date is TBC...

 

[Yoda_]

TBC no chance of returning for the JLT series. I guess you could say that at this stage his return date is TBC...

Really have no idea how he has come back injured with 15 months off

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Really have no idea how he has come back injured with 15 months off

But it really does make it feel like footy season isn't far away though.

 

[Vindicater]

They won't run out anyone with any kind of niggle.

No Joey, Bellchambers, Hooker or Hartley in my opinion.

 

[Vindicater]

Picked the least experianced 22 in terms of total games played. Highest games played here is Dea at 52. If Eades is back and ready to play then Dea goes out and Eades replaces him leaving Gleeson on 51 as our highest games played.

B: McKenna Hartley Ambrose

HB: McGrath Brown Gleeson

C: Tippa Clarke Ridley

HF: Redman Francis Laverde

FF: Fantasia Stewart Begley

R: Draper Parish Langford

INT: Dea Morgan Mutch Long

 

[eth-dog]

Picked the least experianced 22 in terms of total games played. Highest games played here is Dea at 52. If Eades is back and ready to play then Dea goes out and Eades replaces him leaving Gleeson on 51 as our highest games played.

B: McKenna Hartley Ambrose

HB: McGrath Brown Gleeson

C: Tippa Clarke Ridley

HF: Redman Francis Laverde

FF: Fantasia Stewart Begley

R: Draper Parish Langford

INT: Dea Morgan Mutch Long

26 man side.

 

[Bombers36]

No Hooker or Daniher so forward set up will be interesting - maybe something like;-

Ambrose Hartley Kelly
Gleeson Hurley McKenna
Stanton Myers Colyer
Watson Brown Green
Francis Stewart Howlett

Leuenberger Heppell Hocking

Bird McGrath Langford Laverde
Long Clarke Begley Morgan

 

[boncer34]

TBC no chance of returning for the JLT series. I guess you could say that at this stage his return date is TBC...

It's stuff like this that makes you my 13th favourite poster.

 

[sin411]

Picked the least experianced 22 in terms of total games played. Highest games played here is Dea at 52. If Eades is back and ready to play then Dea goes out and Eades replaces him leaving Gleeson on 51 as our highest games played.

B: McKenna Hartley Ambrose

HB: McGrath Brown Gleeson

C: Tippa Clarke Ridley

HF: Redman Francis Laverde

FF: Fantasia Stewart Begley

R: Draper Parish Langford

INT: Dea Morgan Mutch Long

Draper won't play, still recovering from Knee Tendinitis, in both knees.

 

[Bombermania]

Picked the least experianced 22 in terms of total games played. Highest games played here is Dea at 52. If Eades is back and ready to play then Dea goes out and Eades replaces him leaving Gleeson on 51 as our highest games played.

B: McKenna Hartley Ambrose

HB: McGrath Brown Gleeson

C: Tippa Clarke Ridley

HF: Redman Francis Laverde

FF: Fantasia Stewart Begley

R: Draper Parish Langford

INT: Dea Morgan Mutch Long

I like the idea but I would be looking to get the preseason off to a winning start so I would go in as close to full strength as possible then keep that kind of side for the second match then the third match can involve those that didn't play in either the 1st or 2nd match.

 

[Bark Maguley]

I thought Hooker was going to be ready?? its still a few weeks away boys

 

[eth-dog]

I'll be doing my write-up soon, do you guys want a separate thread or just continue in here?

 

[Beerfish]

I'll be doing my write-up soon, do you guys want a separate thread or just continue in here?

May as well keep it all here I reckon.

 

[eth-dog]

May as well keep it all here I reckon.

Sounds good. I'll start writing in a moment

 

[Stopher]

Wow, our first game is only 16 days away! Hard to not get just a bit excited...

 

[eth-dog]

Observations

Collingwood: Have been sinking year after year under coach Nathan Buckley, who will be desperate to get back on track this season. Their defence has been seen as an issue this season, and to address that they've gotten Lynden Dunn and Henry Schade in the off season.

Essendon: After all the drama of the past four seasons, Essendon are finally rid of the drama caused by the Supplements Saga. However they still have some issues with the list, their scoring has been poor for the better part of a decade and will need to fix that soon, hopefully former Giant James Stewart can help fix that.

Head to Head (last 5)

Collingwood 3-2 Essendon

Form Guide

Collingwood: N/A
Essendon: N/A

Sportsbet odds

Collingwood: $1.92
Essendon: $1.88
Line: 1.5 ($1.90)

Possible sides

Collingwood vs Essendon

B: Kelly - Hurley - Brown
F: Elliott - McCarthy - Keeffe
HB: Gleeson - Ambrose - McGrath
HF: Broomhead - White - Daicos
C: Stanton - Watson - McKenna
C: Mackie - Sier - Crocker
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Hooker - Langford
HB: Smith - Scharenberg - Ramsay
F: Green - Stewart - Francis
B: McLarty - Dunn - Maynard
R: Leuenberger - Heppell - Myers
R: Cox - De Goey - Aish
I: Baguley - Dea - Hocking - Howlett - Long - Parish - Bird - Colyer - J Merrett
I: Wells - Hoskin-Elliott - Crisp - Sinclair - Oxley - Fasolo - Phillips - Kirby

Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line

Collingwood's defence in 2016 was mediocre at best, conceding a goal 26% of the time it entered their defensive 50 and they could be in some more short term pain if Ben Reid can't stay on the park for the Pies. Essendon's forward line was statistically the worst last season, only kicking a goal 19% of the time it enters 50 (21% in 2015) but with their full midfield back and Cale Hooker also playing forward, they could be in for a better year in front of goal. Hooker, James Stewart and Aaron Francis are likely to be the tall trio in front of goals for this match, with Stewart also likely to do some of the ruck work, and they'll be looking for contributions from new recruit Josh Green, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Jake Long at ground level. Hooker probably gets taken by injury prone Matthew Scharenberg and Stewart by draftee Sam McLarty, with Aaron Francis probably opposed to Lynden Dunn, with Maynard, Smith and Ramsay probables on the smalls.

Midfield/rucks battle

Collingwood had stacked it's midfield for a while now, and the results were mediocre for the quality of player they had in there, finishing 8th in clearance differential and 6th in contested possession differential in 2016. Essendon finished 16th and 15th in those categories respectively last year (14th and 15th in 2015) so there's definitely room for improvement for both sides. The bulk of Collingwood's inside work was done by Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury and Brodie Grundy last year, none of whom are likely to be playing this game. Only two of Essendon's top 6 clearance winners of 2016 will probably play this game in Darcy Parish and Craig Bird, but 2015 leaders Heath Hocking, Ben Howlett, Jobe Watson and Dyson Heppell are all likely fixtures so it looks like Essendon's midfield will get on top on paper here. The ruck battle should be weighted in the experienced Matthew Leuenberger's favour against big American Mason Cox, who spent most of his time in the forward line last season.

Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence

Collingwood's forward line was below average in 2016, averaging a goal 24% of the time it entered their forward 50. Essendon's defence was poor in 2016, conceding a goal 28% of the time it entered defensive 50 (26% in 2015). Collingwood's forward line will probably be lead by Jesse White, who kicked 23 goals last season but will be playing against former All Australian Michael Hurley, who should be better even at half rat power, leaving Mitch McCarthy to be tackled by Patrick Ambrose and Lachlan Keeffe Mitchell Brown. Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo have shown quality in spurts, so expect them to try to get on top of James Kelly and #1 draft pick Andrew McGrath, or Martin Gleeson.

X-Factor Player

Josh Daicos showed some of his father's mercurial foot skills in the under 18 championships last year and will be keen to do so if he plays this opening game for the Pies. He has an interesting set shot routine but it somehow works, he rarely misses.

Key stat

Collingwood: Opposition conversion rate. Their defence is the weakest third of the ground and as such it's important that they don't let Essendon's forward line get on top.

Essendon: Clearances. They're likely to stack their midfield so getting on top here is of vital importance if they're going to win this clash.

Tip

First game of the year, but expect Essendon to put in a much stronger outfit than Collingwood due to the returning players. Essendon by 42

 

[I Remember Bluey]

Great write up but is Zerrett injured or are you saving him for the 2nd game?

 

[Bombers36]

Great write up eth-dog to start 2017 - looking forward to many more

 

[eth-dog]

Great write up but is Zerrett injured or are you saving him for the 2nd game?

My preferences in terms of the first game is as such:

1. The returning players
2. Players on the fringe of the 22 (Langford, McKenna etc)
3. First year players
4. Entrenched in the 22 (Zach, Goddard, Zaka, Fantasia, Leuenberger, the latter only in cos we have nobody else fit)

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Great write up. Although seeing as Hooker has been on a modified program running laps at training atm it is highly unlikely he plays the first preseason JLT match.

 

[Tippa43]

Tickets for all games on sale today. Got mine for the geelong game in Bendigo!

 

[Harlequin Dream]

Only 2 weeks now boys.

 

[Bombers36]

Not long now - just 1 week! Depending on who comes up & isn't injured out of key backs and forwards at this stage I'd have;-

Ambrose Hurley/Hartley Baguley
Gleeson Brown McGrath
Stanton Myers Parish
Langford Daniher Tippa
Watson Hooker/Francis Howlett

Leuenberger Heppell Z.Merrett

Colyer Hocking Laverde Long
Green McKenna Begley Stewart