Prediction Expectation for 2023

[Bigger]

Going to have to tighten up the Optus fortress, we really shouldn't be losing games there anymore

Yep.

We played one of our best ever away seasons last year. Some huge scalps on their own dungheaps.

I don't know if you can write that happening again down in pen - in fact, quite the opposite - but you really should be pretty confident about winning at home in what is supposed to be the hardest road trip in football.

If we can bank 48 home points, we'll only need a few away and we can ride confidence home into the finals.

Weirdly I suspect we may find ourself on the wrong part of a genuine logjam for the 8 but if we win all at home and the forward line gets routinely good service from the mids and we get games into Treacy, Jackson and Amiss, I will count that as improvement. Regardless of where we finish.

The whole favouring youth thing, in questions like Tabs v Amiss and Walker v Wilson, will prove indicative of where our heads are at.

I reckon the brains trust has high expectations. They thought top 6 last year and were vindicated. I reckon they'll be thinking top 4.

As much as I want that, I don't reckon it's gonna happen.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

• We were - as pointed out previously - Cartlon shitting the bed away from top 4 (and top 2 if you include their round 22 game)
• We beat the premiers on their own home deck, pantsed Melbourne at the G and came back from a pretty big deficit to roll the dogs in our biggest game of 2022 at the time
• We had a dumb draw that we could have easily lost (and easily avoided)
• Were saved in round 1 from a draw/loss by an astute piece of defending
• We struggled in the wet and let our opponents surge ahead a few times
• We never got going against the Pies at the G and had big deer in headlights energy in front of 90-odd thousand

There was a lot to love, a lot to build on and a lot to look at as learning opportunities in 2022

I think we are a big shout for top 4, top 6 minimum and I would be disappointed if we didn't win at least two finals

We can't publicly say we need to rely on other results, however, it would be foolish to discount them altogether. We need a few more results to fall our way in 2023 and who knows

 

[BarbieITFC]

• Finish 5th/6th with 15-16 wins; which is an improvement on last year given the relative difficulty of the two fixtures
• Win a home final without ageing me by five years
• Start to see a functioning and dare I say it occasionally impressive forward line - with our scoring up from last year
• Games into Amiss, Erasmus and Johnson - even if they don't start or finish the year in the best 22
• Henry and Treacy having breakout seasons
• Noddy showing us that last season wasn't a fluke
• Darcy and Jackson performing so well together that they get a Grawndy style moniker (all aboard the JAY-CEE train)
• Fyfe finishing top 3 of the Coleman and Brownlow
• Five players in the AA squad, three in the team (Fyfe, Cox and Darcy)
• Serong, Jackson, Henry, Young, Chapman, Noddy and Treacy in the AFLPA 22 Under 22 team (Clark only misses out by a month)

 

[Joose]

With a big chunk of luck re injuries I think we should make top 4.
With a normal run of injuries still think we can make the top 6.

I dont think the club should go backwards. The losses of Mundy, Lobb, Logue, Acres and Tucker will not be as great as many envisage. We can cover for all of them.

 

[ubiquitous226]

With a big chunk of luck re injuries I think we should make top 4.
With a normal run of injuries still think we can make the top 6.

I dont think the club should go backwards. The losses of Mundy, Lobb, Logue, Acres and Tucker will not be as great as many envisage. We can cover for all of them.

Lobb and Acres are the only losses I think have the genuine opportunity to impact our progress.

The more likely scenario and higher risk is that development is non-linear, and the youth and the team in general don't progress as envisaged.

Injuries are definitely a risk too though as we finally had a decent run last year, although I feel the defence is weirdly where our biggest exposure is.

 

[Joose]

Lobb and Acres are the only losses I think have the genuine opportunity to impact our progress.

The more likely scenario and higher risk is that development is non-linear, and the youth and the team in general don't progress as envisaged.

Injuries are definitely a risk too though as we finally had a decent run last year, although I feel the defence is weirdly where our biggest exposure is.

Yeah tall defender back up is thin. Hamling is OK but Davies and Draper are babies

 

[Vintage]

Just watched the elimination final vs doggies from last year so I’m pumped - we’ll be finishing top 2 easy!!

right, now to watch the semi v Collingwood…

 

[Mr Cheese]

I said Top 4 because we were 'Carlton shitting the bed' away from it last season and I feel that we're better placed this season.

I can taste finals.

I can still taste Carlton's shitty bed...

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[Vintage]

Just watched the elimination final vs doggies from last year so I’m pumped - we’ll be finishing top 2 easy!!

right, now to watch the semi v Collingwood…

Damn. Bottom 4 on its way I’m afraid.

 

[Vintage]

I can still taste Carlton's shitty bed...

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Rockmelon]

Top 4 would be mint!

I just want us to perform better in the blockbuster matches. Last year we looked a little bit like dear in headlights vs some of the bigger teams in big games

 

[wakojako]

Top 4 would be mint!

I just want us to perform better in the blockbuster matches. Last year we looked a little bit like dear in headlights vs some of the bigger teams in big games

Nah I didn't get that vibe at all. We didn't shy away from the Brisbane and Geelong games. Perhaps we did a little in the Collingwood game but most of losses to bigger sides was due to being outcoached like against Sydney.

 

[Rockmelon]

Nah I didn't get that vibe at all. We didn't shy away from the Brisbane and Geelong games. Perhaps we did a little in the Collingwood game but most of losses to bigger sides was due to being outcoached like against Sydney.

I was more thinking of the final against Collingwood and the Friday night game against Melbourne, I would also kinda include the Richmond game too as we were lucky to get a draw I think.

 

[Vimal Anand]

 

[theGav56]

Flag or I'll be really quite miffed.

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Will you melt Mr Cheese

 

[Simmofreo]

Just watched the elimination final vs doggies from last year so I’m pumped - we’ll be finishing top 2 easy!!

right, now to watch the semi v Collingwood…

Don’t do it !!

That game will dampen the mood


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[MrDanggazz]

There is no reason we couldn't start the season 4 - 0 maybe even 6 - 0 with the start of our fixture, the start to 2023 is going to be so important to this years campaign.

 

[DQ 4EVER]

As a Freo fan from inception, I am forever hopeful, but never expectant.
I repeat, never expectant.
Fool me once yada yada yada, except they fooled me a few more than 2 times.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[sven_inc]

I hope you don't mind a post from an outsider. I think you guys are showing strong potential to push top 4 this year.

I cant for the life of me appreciate why people have you missing the 8. I'm sure teams like Bris and Melb could be a small step above this year, but I can see a world where you guys keep improving and challenge them.

Geel will probably be up there too, but it's hard to predict how they'll go by the end of the year for me.

Your midfield is fantastic and still improving, your defense is solid and still improving. As an outsider I think your forward line has the potential to be your Achilles heel, however Fyfe and Jackson both essentially being new recruits is huge. Two potential AA level players.

This may sound strange, but does anyone get the feeling that people are sleeping on Fyfe as a forward this year? He kicked 3 last week and hear others say "he won't do that each week", but I'm not sure why he can't? I heard him say he's working on the physical AND mental side of his goal kicking yips and making progress. He might have a few games where he goes 1.4 and one out on the full, but wouldnt be surprised to see him snag 6.1 or 7.0. He's the first guy since peak buddy that I can see earning bulk shots on goal through almost all possible avenues. Marks on the lead, goals from general play, forward stoppage goals etc. And he's only going to improve in the role. It's not like he won't get plenty of supply.

If his body holds up he could be a huge force.

Overall, for some reason I think people are almost underestimating you guys and the ex captain and I'll watch with interest how things unfold!

Also interested to hear what you guys realistically expect of Fyfe and also Jaeger. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by his output too.

Sent from my SCV41 using Tapatalk

 

[Vimal Anand]

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[theGav56]

I hope you don't mind a post from an outsider. I think you guys are showing strong potential to push top 4 this year.

I cant for the life of me appreciate why people have you missing the 8. I'm sure teams like Bris and Melb could be a small step above this year, but I can see a world where you guys keep improving and challenge them.

Geel will probably be up there too, but it's hard to predict how they'll go by the end of the year for me.

Your midfield is fantastic and still improving, your defense is solid and still improving. As an outsider I think your forward line has the potential to be your Achilles heel, however Fyfe and Jackson both essentially being new recruits is huge. Two potential AA level players.

This may sound strange, but does anyone get the feeling that people are sleeping on Fyfe as a forward this year? He kicked 3 last week and hear others say "he won't do that each week", but I'm not sure why he can't? I heard him say he's working on the physical AND mental side of his goal kicking yips and making progress. He might have a few games where he goes 1.4 and one out on the full, but wouldnt be surprised to see him snag 6.1 or 7.0. He's the first guy since peak buddy that I can see earning bulk shots on goal through almost all possible avenues. Marks on the lead, goals from general play, forward stoppage goals etc. And he's only going to improve in the role. It's not like he won't get plenty of supply.

If his body holds up he could be a huge force.

Overall, for some reason I think people are almost underestimating you guys and the ex captain and I'll watch with interest how things unfold!

Also interested to hear what you guys realistically expect of Fyfe and also Jaeger. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by his output too.

Sent from my SCV41 using Tapatalk

A fingernail deep analysis of our 2022 forward line will tell you it wasn't great. A longer view reveals some pretty decent future prospects headlined by Amiss and Treacy.

Jackson and Fyfe bring breadth to the forward line. They are players that need focus and are also very difficult to match up on. Typical backlines will have at least one mismatch, and I think that will be in our favour if we use it wisely.

Personally I don't put too much pressure on them to be the goals scorers on a weekly basis. What we do have is more avenues to goal.

 

[DocT]

I hope you don't mind a post from an outsider. I think you guys are showing strong potential to push top 4 this year.

I cant for the life of me appreciate why people have you missing the 8. I'm sure teams like Bris and Melb could be a small step above this year, but I can see a world where you guys keep improving and challenge them.

Geel will probably be up there too, but it's hard to predict how they'll go by the end of the year for me.

Your midfield is fantastic and still improving, your defense is solid and still improving. As an outsider I think your forward line has the potential to be your Achilles heel, however Fyfe and Jackson both essentially being new recruits is huge. Two potential AA level players.

This may sound strange, but does anyone get the feeling that people are sleeping on Fyfe as a forward this year? He kicked 3 last week and hear others say "he won't do that each week", but I'm not sure why he can't? I heard him say he's working on the physical AND mental side of his goal kicking yips and making progress. He might have a few games where he goes 1.4 and one out on the full, but wouldnt be surprised to see him snag 6.1 or 7.0. He's the first guy since peak buddy that I can see earning bulk shots on goal through almost all possible avenues. Marks on the lead, goals from general play, forward stoppage goals etc. And he's only going to improve in the role. It's not like he won't get plenty of supply.

If his body holds up he could be a huge force.

Overall, for some reason I think people are almost underestimating you guys and the ex captain and I'll watch with interest how things unfold!

Also interested to hear what you guys realistically expect of Fyfe and also Jaeger. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by his output too.

Sent from my SCV41 using Tapatalk

Welcome stranger.
Great general insights about the team/comp and in particular about Fyfe. Thx.

As you rightly point out, everything we say about Nat is 100% dependent on his body holding up. If it does then...
...I think we all agree with your observations about his multiple potential routes to goal. Very hard to defend.
...trying to defend him will strain the oppo's defenders AND their defensive plan/structure. How great is the potential for other Freo forwards to capitalise?
...negativity towards his goal kicking is way overstated. He has had one season where he kicked more points than goals (admittedly it was total shite). He began his footy career as a forward.
...perhaps most significantly he is a champion player - a generational talent - that finds himself in a place where he has to prove himself, and this maybe even to himself. The preseason signs are that he is fully committed to this challenge and looks like he has found new inner resolve. In his early career packs of 3-4 oppo players couldn't stop him. Sam F*****G Mitchell's dirty knee did. What will stop his body and resolve now?

Anyway, provided his body holds up, how Nat goes in his new role is one of the Must Watch stories of AFL 2023.

Thanks again for your well informed and interesting observations.

 

[King Huskii]

As a Freo fan from inception, I am forever hopeful, but never expectant.
I repeat, never expectant.
Fool me once yada yada yada, except they fooled me a few more than 2 times.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Same
Foundation member with my family

 

[Quazar]

I hope you don't mind a post from an outsider. I think you guys are showing strong potential to push top 4 this year.

I cant for the life of me appreciate why people have you missing the 8. I'm sure teams like Bris and Melb could be a small step above this year, but I can see a world where you guys keep improving and challenge them.

Geel will probably be up there too, but it's hard to predict how they'll go by the end of the year for me.

Your midfield is fantastic and still improving, your defense is solid and still improving. As an outsider I think your forward line has the potential to be your Achilles heel, however Fyfe and Jackson both essentially being new recruits is huge. Two potential AA level players.

This may sound strange, but does anyone get the feeling that people are sleeping on Fyfe as a forward this year? He kicked 3 last week and hear others say "he won't do that each week", but I'm not sure why he can't? I heard him say he's working on the physical AND mental side of his goal kicking yips and making progress. He might have a few games where he goes 1.4 and one out on the full, but wouldnt be surprised to see him snag 6.1 or 7.0. He's the first guy since peak buddy that I can see earning bulk shots on goal through almost all possible avenues. Marks on the lead, goals from general play, forward stoppage goals etc. And he's only going to improve in the role. It's not like he won't get plenty of supply.

If his body holds up he could be a huge force.

Overall, for some reason I think people are almost underestimating you guys and the ex captain and I'll watch with interest how things unfold!

Also interested to hear what you guys realistically expect of Fyfe and also Jaeger. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by his output too.

Sent from my SCV41 using Tapatalk

thanx bud for your thoughts, I think most of the comp is sleeping on Fyfe if I'm honest. I think his main probelm pre-2023 was his belief of where he plays his best football. A bullocking 2-time Brownlow medalist who has dominated through the midfield, watching young stars emerge and essentially take over in Brayshaw and Serong with back up from Brodie? I think that was always going to provide a bit of mental tussle as he recovered from last years chronic injuries and we wrestling with the thoughts of where best to fit in a Nat Fyfe, with respects to who he is, what he's achieved and what he can provide the team with what best suits the balance overall. It feels like from what he's spoken about, he had some mental demons that emerged and took over - through the rebuild years he carried this team on his back and even in some small coterie of circles here he is disrespected absurdly; this year feels like he's worked hard to conquer that, accept his role as a forward, relinquish the burden of captaincy and be 'allowed' to focus on playing his best, strongest football in a newer role he's trained all pre-season for and showed more than just a glimpse of what he could be capable of doing in the pre-season hit outs.

Of course all eyes be on him once the regular season starts - thats where it gets a bit more serious, but injuries aside I see no reason why Fyfe can't activate a beast mode forward and show the naysayers the exit door. Jaeger may be injured for Round 1, might miss now as he's done his ankle, we're awaiting on the severity of it to see if he gets up. We're hopeful he can slot in and strengthen the midfield again, we've seen glimpses of it too in pre-season as well.

 

[FreoRicci]

Should get 3-0. Adelaide at Adelaide Oval will be tough. 4-0 then Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs at home. Can go 6-0. Shouldn't be losing at home.