FA Compensation - Guessing Competition

[demon_dynasty13]

Rivers finished 5th in our B and F this season, and 2nd in 2011.

Should be higher than band 4?

 

[ziad]

Rivers finished 5th in our B and F this season, and 2nd in 2011.

Should be higher than band 4?

5th for melbourne doesn't say a lot sadly

 

[ziad]

Dawes is what 24 years old, Lynch is 30 in season 2013. Big difference.

Dawes is what 24 years old, Lynch is 30 in season 2013. Big difference.

Dawes knew Lynch would force him out, lets not become ageist

 

[demon_dynasty13]

5th for melbourne doesn't say a lot sadly

Yeah i cant really argue with that lol

 

[Suma Magic]

I think clubs will be disappointed overall.

I'd be happy for Goddard to get band 1, but for that to be the precedent for the minimum for that band.

Fingers crossed we get a band 4 for lynch, wouldn't be surprised with band 5.

 

[Falchoon]

Anyone interested in a closest to the pin on the FA compensations handed out tomorrow?

I'm thinking :

Goddard = Band 2
Pearce = Band 3
Chaplin = Band 4
Rivers = Band 4
Moloney = Band 4
Knights =Band 5
Byrnes = Band 5

I don't see the AFL handing out a Band 1 compo pick for a 28 yo Goddard. I reckon it would take a 25yo Goddard to get Band 1. Free Agency is for the players and i think Club compo will be on the minimal side of things.

Goddard & free agency

Young FA - tick
Top 3 salary at new club - tick

Band 1

 

[bombermick]

Baffling why Melbourne didn't have a token trade with the Cats for Brynes, who would have looked after him.

Goddard - Band 1
Pearce - Band 2
Chaplin - Band 3
Rivers - Band 4
Knights - Band 4
Brynes - Band 5
Lynch - Band 4

 

[rgauci]

Showing a bit of anti-WC bias here me thinks.

A player who represented a top 4-5 team in basically all matches in yr 2012 is worth the same as Chris Knights ? - Dont think so.

Probably am.

Just don't see how they can give clubs 2nd rounders for 30 year olds who are fringe best 22.

 

[BOND 007]

Probably am.

Just don't see how they can give clubs 2nd rounders for 30 year olds who are fringe best 22.

Bit hard on Lynch there - he played too many games in 2012 to be labelled "fringe best 22". Additionally you cant use a broad brush across all clubs - WC's "fringe players", would have to be worth more than Melbourne's "fringe players" simply due to the quality of the teams.

If we use Goddard as the base and apply a band 1 value for him, then Chaplin is a 2, Lynch, Moloney, Rivers and Pearce are all 3's, with Knights and Byrnes both 4's. Think the AFL would be sending out the wrong message by labelleing any of the above as band 5 - its tantamount to saying they have no value at all.

 

[BOND 007]

Probably am.

Just don't see how they can give clubs 2nd rounders for 30 year olds who are fringe best 22.

Bit hard on Lynch there - he played too many games in 2012 to be labelled "fringe best 22". Additionally you cant use a broad brush across all clubs - WC's "fringe players", would have to be worth more than Melbourne's "fringe players" simply due to the quality of the teams.

If we use Goddard as the base and apply a band 1 value for him, then Chaplin is a 2, Lynch, Moloney, Rivers and Pearce are all 3's, with Knights and Byrnes both 4's. Think the AFL would be sending out the wrong message by labelleing any of the above as band 5 - its tantamount to saying they have no value at all.

 

[rgauci]

Bit hard on Lynch there - he played too many games in 2012 to be labelled "fringe best 22". Additionally you cant use a broad brush across all clubs - WC's "fringe players", would have to be worth more than Melbourne's "fringe players" simply due to the quality of the teams.

If we use Goddard as the base and apply a band 1 value for him, then Chaplin is a 2, Lynch, Moloney, Rivers and Pearce are all 3's, with Knights and Byrnes both 4's. Think the AFL would be sending out the wrong message by labelleing any of the above as band 5 - its tantamount to saying they have no value at all.

Hamish McIntosh was traded for a mid 30's pick, Brian Lake a pick in the 40's and a 6 spot upgrade. I would think Lynch is worth less than the aforementioned.

 

[Galileo9]

Hamish McIntosh was traded for a mid 30's pick, Brian Lake a pick in the 40's and a 6 spot upgrade. I would think Lynch is worth less than the aforementioned.

not really. how can he be worth less than McIntosh? Lake was a salary cap dump. his draft pick was weighted towards that.

Lynch has alot of value. kicked 33 goals this year off half forward. not too shabby for a crap player. and using collingwood fans' theories "he is a premiership player". This alone then means he is worth alot. first rounder in fact. plus a player. wait, was getting wellingham flashbacks.

PS. i dont personally think clubs should be getting alot for losing players. makes draft a farce. alot of the clubs werent even interested in re-signing these free agents, so why should they be rewarded?

goddard also cant be top compo. clubs expect afl to decide on "how good a player is". bit hard to do THAT. only way to do it is B&F's and money at hand. if he is offered 700k, its still well under the best paid + best and fairest winners (eg ablett). therefore there has to be something higher than can be offered for players who get more money and higher performance. if that is mid-first rounder, then goddard surely wont get that.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

So Goddard is worth a quarter of what Scully is?

By comparing the expansion poaching of Scully to the free agency of Goddard, you are comparing apples to oranges.

The AFL has stated that the compensation for free agents will be far less than what we saw for the expansion clubs. The Scully compensation was so high due to 2 primary factors. He was a recent No. 1 draft pick and his salary package was HUGE.

For free agents the main things that will determine the compensation will be the payers age, recent club best & fairest results and the new salary package. Where they were drafted, "they are a premiership player", "they can dominate a game on a good day", "great clubman, or other subjective factors will have little-to-no influence on the compensation offered.

I would be stunned if anyone (including Goddard) received any more than a band 3 compensation. That's the same compensation as Rischittelli (reigning B&F) and Bock (quality fullback). Any compensation higher than this is too high for a free agent. It could be pick 2 for a bottom paced team.

Free agency compensation is not designed to fully compensate a club for the loss of a player. Judging by the estimate/claims by BF posters, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on BF when compensation is announced. There's gunna be a whole-lotta-whinging.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

I would expect Young to be the same as Pearce.

2 months difference in age, both on 3 year contracts, I would assume on similar coin.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

Demons have stuffed up Free Agency. Unless they can pull a massive rabbit out of their bum in the last 24 hr. Taking Byrnes when they did - strange. Here is a link that spoke about it nearly two weeks ago.

Demons Make Massive Mistake In Free Agency Week

they knew that "2 lesser players" does not equal "1 good player". That's an equation that so many posters on BF trades board have not yet learned.

 

[The Finger]

There is no guess work in Goddards its pick 13. No ifs or buts.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

Goddard = Band 1
Pearce = Band 2
Chaplin = Band 3
Rivers = Band 4
Moloney = Band 3/4 (I'll go with 4)
Knights =Band 4
Byrnes = Band 5

assuming that the bands "currency" remain the same as expansion compo, no one will get Band 1. Even Goddard will not get the maximum compo. The maximum compo band will go to a 26 y.o., reigning club B&F, brownlow medalist being paid $1M/year. Even that compo may not be a band 2.

Goddard is well short of max free agency compo.

I think you've estimated a bit high. Goddard, Pearce and Chaplin around band 3. Fringe players such as Moloney, Knights & Byrnes who aren't good enough to get a game wont get much compo. Band 4/5 seems about right for these guys.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

5th for melbourne doesn't say a lot sadly

LOL. I agree.
But for free agency compo, it doesn't matter where the team finished, but the B&F results do determine the compo.

 

[The Finger]

assuming that the bands "currency" remain the same as expansion compo, no one will get Band 1. Even Goddard will not get the maximum compo. The maximum compo band will go to a 26 y.o., reigning club B&F, brownlow medalist being paid $1M/year. Even that compo may not be a band 2.

Goddard is well short of max free agency compo.

I think you've estimated a it high. Goddard, Pearce and Chaplin around band 3. Fringe players such as Moloney, Knights & Byrnes who aren't good enough to get a game wont get much compo. Band 4/5 seems about right for these guys.

Goddard is a given for Band 1 compo. The Saints knew this two weeks ago.

 

[pantskyle]

The Saints would be pissed if they didn't get Band 1 for Goddard.

 

[Footy Mad]

they knew that "2 lesser players" does not equal "1 good player". That's an equation that so many posters on BF trades board have not yet learned.

Cheers. However, think it was only confirmed yesterday. But it still baffles me why Melbourne took Byrnes? WTF are they doing? It still could cost them a band 3 or 4 pick. Effectively they have traded Byrnes for Rivers and gone backwards in compo. Port can get it right with no coach yet Demons get it wrong!

 

[Scully2Folau]

I'll guess that the AFL have come to their senses and won't give anyone more than an end of 3rd round pick for losing a free agent.

 

[pantskyle]

When do they announce the picks?

 

[dee64]

Cheers. However, think it was only confirmed yesterday. But it still baffles me why Melbourne took Byrnes? WTF are they doing? It still could cost them a band 3 or 4 pick. Effectively they have traded Byrnes for Rivers and gone backwards in compo. Port can get it right with no coach yet Demons get it wrong!

You clearly don't understand free agency. The Byrnes and Rivers moves weren't contingent on each other, so there was no trade involved. It's the players decision to move, not the clubs.

And I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL don't take too kindly to Port Adelaide's attempt to flaunt free agency with the Monfries deal. We'll see what happens with the Pearce compo.

 

[Limerick]

When do they announce the picks?

+1