Famous DT Coaches Thread 2011 (Part 2)

[Impromptu]

I've learnt more this year through bad luck and injuries then I have over the previous years and it still comes back to trusting your gut which is something i've always struggled with.

This is why guys like Improptu do well because they can put the blinkers on and say 'you know what, F U! Goddard is not a must have in your starting team, i'm going to be different' and back himself.

My gut pre-season told me that Fyfe was going to be right up there but I still followed others and now come round 17 i'm looking like bringing him in.

If you're not scared to fail in DT/SC then you're more chance to win the thing overall where as i'll punish myself week in week out because i didnt pick up Gaz in round 11

Just saw my name and thought I'd make a comment.

I agree following you gut instinct gives you a higher chance to win it however possibly a higher chance to bomb out.. High risk high return and high lossess.. The trick is I think the right time to take the risk....

I agree luck is important,but I think IT'S THE TIMING OF THE LUCK..Everyone forgets it's all about time. I know this from experience.. A few months ago Franklin was a late out and everyone had I.Smith/Mzunga (i forgot who) as emergency who scored 100 and I had some lolRicho (iirc). Then the week later, everyone had mzunga and i.smith as their last player on the field therefore any late outs they get a donut. I had I.Smith/Mzunga on the bench, and I wanted a late out, so I get I.Smith/Mzunga's score but they weren't late outs, so everyone was covered and I had my guys on the bench.

The key is luck but it's the timing of the luck too. Having Ablett/Judd/Selwood out when your cover scores 90+ is perfect luck. The argument could be that it wasn't luck because you had the backup. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.. You may have Mzunga for example who averages 90, some games 100 and others 50. But what you want is the games when Mzunga scores 100 to be on the field and the games when Mzunga scores 50 to be off the field...

Sorry if this post isn't perfectly written, a bit of the rush.... A guy who averages 100 is useless if he scores 120 when you don't need him and 80 when you need him..

I think those not having upgraded 6/7th Backs have been the winners! I hoped that going strong in my backline may have been a difference over other teams and given me points but the emergence of the back rookies (Poppy,Hibberd,Lower,Stanley,etc) has mean I have gain nothing for these trades!

This

Similar to my argument about I.Smith/Mzunga when I had an extra forward and others had perfect replacement at the right time

 

[tbetta]

I think luck obviously is a big factor in how your team places at the end of the season, but it's not the biggest factor. The biggest is, and always will be, decision making.

As Walesy mentioned, every coach is going to take a few bad-luck bullets over the course of the season, it's just inevitable. But it's the coaches that can turn a bad situation into a good one with great decision making that will end up being the successful ones.

For instance, consider that every coach will need to make around 10 -12 upgrades a year. But there will be times when trades will be required to cover donuts, injuries, etc. It's the coaches that can make a trade to not only cover a donut or injury (or bye in 2011), but to improve their team as well, that will be competitive at season's end. This leaves them with more trades and 'room to move' at the end of the year.

Two 'famous' DT coaches that do this particularly well are destROY and The Convicts. Looking at their trades for the year, they have been pretty successful in getting a leg up on the rest of the competition when an injury or impending donut rears it's ugly head.

An example of this is when The Convicts traded out Lower and Sandilands for Fisher and McEvoy. Both trades covered Freo's bye and Sandi's injury, while significantly improving his team.

It's trades like that that make me wonder whether the best thing that can happen to a good DT coach is an injury, because it gives them an opportunity to break away from the pack with smart decision making.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

When it's an injury to a popular player, sure. When you have a great POD it just hurts.

 

[ZergMinion]

I would say luck in your starting team has the biggest effect on your final score where your 50/50 calls either fly or tank.

Someone who started the year with Swan/Pendles/Boyd/Murphy would currently be in a much better position than someone who started Swan/Bartel/Montagna/Stanton, and would also have the option of picking up Bartel/Montagna/Stanton super cheap during the season.

It just makes a massive difference. If you don't get those 50/50 calls right then you're relying on good trading to get the high ranking, and it's almost impossible to make up enough ground to challenge for the car.

 

[sheller891]

how many trades left zergY?

 

[Jolldo87]

FAMOUS DT COACHES - Round 16 Report

View Larger Image

TRADES:

Warne Dawgs (16)

Up and About (19)

LemmingMasterEDT (19)

The Baxters (17)

CoachesBox Podcast (20)

FanFooty EDT (21)
Chris Knights

Travis Cloke

30SPARTANS (21)

The Convicts (15)

vamsee EDT (23)
Rohan Bewick
Jobe Watson

Xavier Clarke
Scott Pendlebury

Frayed Ends FFC (20)

Calvinator (21)
Chris Knights

Matthew Lobbe

Dr Dream Team (18)

destROY (18)
Chris Knights

Matthew Lobbe

Banana Bale (20)

TEAMS:
M0nty - FanFooty - EDT 263
Molly - CoachesBox Podcast - 154
Warnie - Warne Dogs - 1
Calvin - Calvinator - 9025
Roy - destROY- 27441
banana bus - Banana Bale - 30006
Ben the Gooner - Frayed Ends FFC - 7679
thebaxters - The Baxters - 108
footylover18 - vamsee EDT- 7523
Tarquin - LemmingMaster EDT - 35
Ausyid - Up and About - 17
Stubz - 30spartans - 4100
Dr Dream Team - 11165
The Convicts - 5143

 

[Blues_FC]

Wow, convicts with 9 trades left! I don't want to tell this guy how to play the game, but I wonder if he'll leave his run too late! Time to start cashing in some of those trades, buddy!

On a side note, has anyone won the car twice? I'm assuming no.

 

[sheller891]

Wow, convicts with 9 trades left! I don't want to tell this guy how to play the game, but I wonder if he'll leave his run too late! Time to start cashing in some of those trades, buddy!

On a side note, has anyone won the car twice? I'm assuming no.

think about it though.

have a look at this team.

gibbs, deledio, enright, goddard, fisher, heppell, duffield (stanley, pederson, golby) = pretty good.

murphy, boyd, pendlebury, mitchell, ablett, bartel (hibberd, prestia, i.smith)
= flipping good. only swan over bartel could make it perfect. 2 MID/FWD dp to cover byes.

cox, mcevoy = the best!

okeefe, chapman, franklin, n.riewoldt, higgins, sylvia, petrie (j.riewoldt, mzungu, krakeour) = pretty good. no pav/fyfe/sj but very solid still

decent cover. vgood starting team + 9 trades and only 600 points behind

heavin forbid, but often last 3 rounds are carnage central with players sent in for surgery, teams resting players + general UNEXPECTED normal injuries

if hes 400-500 with 3 rounds to play and 6 trades left. he will overtake 99% of the competition in those 3 rounds, using trades to cover zeroes.

imo - he knows what hes doing and im pretty scared.

 

[AJP123]

Wow, convicts with 9 trades left! I don't want to tell this guy how to play the game, but I wonder if he'll leave his run too late! Time to start cashing in some of those trades, buddy!

Perhaps, but being ranked 58, and more to the point, being "only" 604 points off the leader, I don't think he needs to worry TOO much - he'll probably sideways a premium or two when they have their byes, and do some other crazy stuff to launch himself towards the car.

On a side note, has anyone won the car twice? I'm assuming no.

Forgive me for my ignorance, but has Convicts won the car before? I'd love to hear some general advice on DTing from him. Golden rules, trading policies, etc., etc. If he's ranked 58 with 9 trades left, Wowee... Probably the top-ranked DTer with at least 9 trades left.

 

[Blues_FC]

think about it though.

have a look at this team.

gibbs, deledio, enright, goddard, fisher, heppell, duffield (stanley, pederson, golby) = pretty good.

murphy, boyd, pendlebury, mitchell, ablett, bartel (hibberd, prestia, i.smith)
= flipping good. only swan over bartel could make it perfect. 2 MID/FWD dp to cover byes.

cox, mcevoy = the best!

okeefe, chapman, franklin, n.riewoldt, higgins, sylvia, petrie (j.riewoldt, mzungu, krakeour) = pretty good. no pav/fyfe/sj but very solid still

decent cover. vgood starting team + 9 trades and only 600 points behind

heavin forbid, but often last 3 rounds are carnage central with players sent in for surgery, teams resting players + general UNEXPECTED normal injuries

if hes 400-500 with 3 rounds to play and 6 trades left. he will overtake 99% of the competition in those 3 rounds, using trades to cover zeroes.

imo - he knows what hes doing and im pretty scared.

All true. But by this stage of the year, pretty much everyone above him also has a completed team. Barring bad luck, it's not going to be that easy for him to make up the points on teams that have good bye cover.

If I were him and making a serious play for the car, I wouldn't necessarily want the following guys in my starting side:

Heppell - might be good enough for most as a D7, but for someone going for the car?
Duffield - back into some kind of form, but again, not exactly a solid starting back for someone with eyes on the toyota.
Bartel - as you said, he probably needs to trade him up to Swan for a perfect midfield.
Higgins - will he play out the year?
Petrie - like Heppell, he might be good enough for most teams as an F7, but will he help win you the car?

Obviously, you don't need a perfect side to win, but I think he'll need to upgrade some of those guys in the next few weeks. Not sure how much $$$ he has, but it's not like there are a great number of quality downgrade targets at this stage of the year.

Anyway, I don't doubt his skills. But if I were you, I'd be feeling pretty confident.

 

[Blues_FC]

Forgive me for my ignorance, but has Convicts won the car before? I'd love to hear some general advice on DTing from him. Golden rules, trading policies, etc., etc. If he's ranked 58 with 9 trades left, Wowee... Probably the top-ranked DTer with at least 9 trades left.

He won in 2008. He very rarely posts on BF, but goes by the username of BradFisherman (at least he used to).

 

[Jolldo87]

He'd be mad not to upgrade Bartel this week and i'd be very surprised if he didn't.

He's in a very good position to win the comp, that is for sure.

Also, Higgins lasting he year wouldn't worry him. That's what he's got the 9 trades for.

And Heppell is good enough to be an 8th back imo. Despite a couple of poor weeks and calls from the masses that he's finished he's still averaging 80. There's not many defenders bettering that.

 

[sheller891]

i like him as a 7th back. 102 and 100 and 81 and 58 last 4 weeks. same time shaw has given me 62,60,85,114... flipping ****.

backs are quite weak!

if hes held on to bartel until now, i see him keeping him.

youre right with higgins though. and yes hes in a good position. i wonder where he was this time last year?

 

[NT.Thunder]

I think that Covicts will need a few injuries, players rested and trades during the byes to make up enough ground on the leaders.

With no more LTI's IMO alot of the better side at the front will or may have premium coverage for several positions via MPP which will make it difficult to gain ground quickly.

However if we see some big names go down with injury then he's obviously in prime position to make good headway on the leaders.

It's going to be very interesting with a lot of similar teams at the pointy end, I mean the only difference between your team Shellers and mine this week is SJ V Pav and Sylvia V Smith and Capt choice.....Very little ground if any to be made or extended.

 

[Informative Sauce]

What are the Famous Coaches' thoughts on the number of premiums required in each position this year?

With the extra trades we have and the ability of rookies to earn so much cash, my current plan is to have 8 backs, 7mids, 2 rucks and 8 forwards with DPP players averaging 70 taking the B9, M8 & F9 positions. With the number of unavailabilities of premiums every week it makes sense to me to use trades to fill B8 M7 F8 early rather than hold them for finals where you would potentially use them to swap rested/dropped/minor-injury players on a week by week basis. By using this strategy you also have the advantage of bringing in the best players despite their impending byes (even finals byes!) because you will have premium cover rather than the ultimately risky cover you get from players averaging 70-80. After continually getting burned by the low end scores from my yo-yo bench players on the weeks I actually need them, I am want to try something different than the conservative "hold-trades strategy" I have used in the past.

We already know that premiums will be missing from our sides come finals so why should we settle for anything less than 22 premiums on the park EVERY week?

 

[Buddyman]

I think Swan is a required player, but potentially he could do a double and maybe upgrade a mid bench player. Judging by Danes previous years, he comes home like a train and I would not be surprised if he went on a 130 average from here on in. Anyway I think if there was ever of a master of DT it is this guy (and shellers ). He will know what to do but like Shellers I can't see him trading Jimmy...

But good luck to shellers, mate I can not believe you choose Swan over GAJ as captain. Speak about angels looking over you, but I guess you went with your gut and it payed off. Could you maybe explain why you choose Swan over GAJ, if you get a chance?

 

[BiTeGumsux]

It will be interesting to see what he does this week with his trades. Surely he will start his trading and cause some havoc to the field ahead including that number 1 spot

Some stars he doesn't have in each position which makes me question how he has done so well, so far. NO Scotland, Suckling or Shaw (must be close to the top 3 backs this year). NO Swan (arguably the best midfielder). NO Fyfe, SJ or Pav (again must be right up there as the best forwards of the year so far). How has he done so well?

Another problem he may encounter is ordinary downgrade targets which could take its toll. Even if there are lots of injuries his weak bench players due to trading late could cause him trouble as well.

I wonder how much money he has left over? He must be considering another gun midfielder this week. He is either going to have 2 mids or 2 forwards certainly missing this week due to hawks bye. I think he will be pretty happy to rely on Riewoldt this week against GC to cover Buddy. I dont think he will trade Bartel, i think he may well look to trade Prestia, Mzungu or I.Smith in the midfield to Swan. Giving him a premium midfield setup with Mitchell missing on the bench.

Something he must be considering this week is Selwood vs Swan vs Redden (maybe). Surely he would go Swan as he he has hit form over the past few weeks. He has the ability to go unique and other options may entice him so he is differed to the coaches ahead of him.

Would be great to look at his starting team? (does anyone have it)
and the trades he has done so far. Certainly capitalized on Duffield and Riewoldt at a very cheap price. His logic at the time seems like he was happy for them to come backup B8, F8 bench players at such a cheap price. Duffield has gone on to do better than maybe he expected and he hasn't had to trade in other premiums in the backs.

Whatever he has done has been a superb effort and with so little trades used he could well win his second car. Certainly would put him in a whole new league.

Would be great to hear more from this guy, but im sure he would prefer to keep his secrets to himself.

 

[AJP123]

NO Scotland, Suckling or Shaw (must be close to the top 3 backs this year). NO Swan (arguably the best midfielder). NO Fyfe, SJ or Pav (again must be right up there as the best forwards of the year so far). How has he done so well?

He'll be glad he didn't have Shaw now (unless he traded him in yesterday/today), Shaw's been rubbed out for the rest of the H&A season.

Another problem he may encounter is ordinary downgrade targets which could take its toll. Even if there are lots of injuries his weak bench players due to trading late could cause him trouble as well.

This time of year, if you've got enough depth, you don't need uber good downgrade targets, you just want to get cash. I wouldn't be fussed if I had Mitch Curnow as my 4th ruck, which is what I'm planning.

Whatever he has done has been a superb effort and with so little trades used he could well win his second car. Certainly would put him in a whole new league.

Would be great to hear more from this guy, but im sure he would prefer to keep his secrets to himself.

Same here, he needs to write a DT book. Author: the guy who won DT. Twice.

 

[sheller891]

shaw. nuff said.

never considered raping another male until today.

 

[Jolldo87]

Famous Coaches with Shaw
m0nty
Dr. Dream Team
Warnie
Stubz

 

[Ball Hog]

Whatever he has done has been a superb effort and with so little trades used he could well win his second car. Certainly would put him in a whole new league.

Damn right. I wonder if he hasn't quite gone aggressive enough because lots infront of him will have less trades but as NT Thunder said; it can be very hard to make up ground. Also, if you have really great depth as alot of the top DT'ers do you might not need too many trades.

Certainly capitalized on Duffield and Riewoldt at a very cheap price.

He had Duffield from the start I believe.

Famous Coaches with Shaw
m0nty
Dr. Dream Team
Warnie
Stubz

Thanks for that update.

 

[BiTeGumsux]

This is exactly what The Convicts would have wished for.

 

[sheller891]

youre loving this jolldo.

have done my 2 trades. now going to **** a hooker.

 

[warnie]

Warne Dawgs suffering from Heath "Never Again" Shaw. So will try to turn it into a good thing.... hopefully!

THIS WEEK
Shaw > Talia
Darling > Fyfe

NEXT WEEK
Hibberd > Suckling

Will leave me with 5 trades.

 

[Buddyman]

youre loving this jolldo.

have done my 2 trades. now going to **** a hooker.

You didn't did you sheller?