Racing February Daily Thread: Mark McGowan stops the spread of Pike backing

[iluvparis]

 

[Jugada]

I remember when Protectionist won the Melbourne Cup and everyone was raving about his “turn of foot” at the end of two miles. It was nothing of the sort, he was just not slowing down as much as the others. They gave him to an Australian trainer who kicked him off over 1400 next prep and, well...they ruined him.

Not saying SD can’t win on Saturday- some international horses (Redkirk Warrior, Hartnell) have been good trained up for shorter distances, and he has loads more class than these- but if he wins on Saturday I think it bodes poorly for the rest of the prep if they want to step him out to say 2400m. Those days are over.

Either way, I HATE that they are even thinking about starting him here.

Comparisons to Protectionist are rancid. I don't recall anyone thinking he had a turn of foot to be competitive over shorter trips. His whole thing was being super strong over 2 miles.

What days are over? 2400m horses starting their prep over 1400m?

 

[HeathySure]

translation, going ordinary, will pretend to bring him back as a 3yo then retire him on an overpriced stud fee based on non existant potential

 

[iluvparis]

What days are over? 2400m horses starting their prep over 1400m?

Yes because now our 2400m races are won by genuine classic horses not the best 1600-2000m WFA horse that we can push out to the trip.

Protectionist was $4.50 into $2.90 resuming in the St George and was beaten 4 lengths by MOURINHO - its only in hindsight people called him a slowie - it was all about his electric turn of foot in the lead up to that race.

 

[Jugada]

Yes because now our 2400m races are won by genuine classic horses not the best 1600-2000m WFA horse that we can push out to the trip.

Protectionist was $4.50 into $2.90 resuming in the St George and was beaten 4 lengths by MOURINHO - its only in hindsight people called him a slowie - it was all about his electric turn of foot in the lead up to that race.

The winner of last years Caulfield Cup and BMW kicked off her campaigns successfully over the shorter trips last year...

I remember nothing of a turn of foot. The whole narrative I remember reading here was his 2 mile strength

 

[iluvparis]

The winner of last years Caulfield Cup and BMW kicked off her campaigns successfully over the shorter trips last year...

I remember nothing of a turn of foot. The whole narrative I remember reading here was his 2 mile strength

So he was backed $4.20 - $2.90 in an 1800m race because of his 2 mile strength?

As I said you've forgotten because he ended up going like a busted but the chat was the same as this after the electric turn of foot he apparently showed at Flemington - when really he powered home off a mad pace just like the Dragon did in the Cox Plate.

Last years CC /BMW winner had also run second in a Chipping Norton to the then proclaimed best miler in Australia (a race she was $26 in - not $2.80 fave) - Sir D has never even raced below 2000m.

 

[mcnulty]

Comparisons to Protectionist are rancid. I don't recall anyone thinking he had a turn of foot to be competitive over shorter trips. His whole thing was being super strong over 2 miles.

What days are over? 2400m horses starting their prep over 1400m?

Increasingly you’re going to see horses more restricted to their optimum distances. Kicking off a 2400 over 1400 makes no logical sense, it’s a relic of the way we structure our carnivals. Nowhere else in the world does, they’re happy to come down here and run first up over two miles.

A decade or so ago horses like Shoot Out and Weekend Hussler kicked off Cup campaigns over sprint distances because that’s the way it was always done. But now days it’s stupid.

And as has been mentioned, it wasn’t SDs turn of foot that won him the Plate, it was that he able to maintain his speed better when everything else was slowing down. Look at the splits.

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[Jugada]

So he was backed $4.20 - $2.90 in an 1800m race because of his 2 mile strength?

As I said you've forgotten because he ended up going like a busted but the chat was the same as this after the electric turn of foot he apparently showed at Flemington - when really he powered home off a mad pace just like the Dragon did in the Cox Plate.

Last years CC /BMW winner had also run second in a Chipping Norton to the then proclaimed best miler in Australia (a race she was $26 in - not $2.80 fave) - Sir D has never even raced below 2000m.

It's a rancid comparison no matter what people thought of Protectionist. The only similarity is they both came over from Europe. Lazy comparison.

So what? He has never had a run over those trips. If he comes out and wins over a shorter trips laughable to suggest that is a negative

 

[pendlebury_10]

Can we just have a match bet and put this argument to bed ffs?

 

[iluvparis]

It's a rancid comparison no matter what people thought of Protectionist. The only similarity is they both came over from Europe. Lazy comparison.

So what? He has never had a run over those trips. If he comes out and wins over a shorter trips laughable to suggest that is a negative

Yes but he is 2.80 fave over a trip that the greatest trainer in history never bothered to get near trying over even though he WANTS gun milers for his breeding operation. Revealed preference says he doesn't get - which is the main information we have to go in.

The only lazy form going on is assuming he will run to his peak over a sub optimal distance.

Black Caviar never tried 3200 so would we just price her $2.50 in a Melbourne Cup?

 

[iluvparis]

Can we just have a match bet and put this argument to bed ffs?

Personally I find it an interesting intellectual discussion how so many good form analysts have him clearly on top despite making the exact same mistake with Surprise Baby FU in the spring. I should say local analysts because anyone from Europe knows how much of a joke putting him in this race is. And rightly so.

It's all down to this Geelong trial - 10 years ago you would have never seen it and people would be laughing at the placement. In this case they will only be laughing at the placement post race.

 

[frantelle]

translation, going ordinary, will pretend to bring him back as a 3yo then retire him on an overpriced stud fee based on non existant potential

Very familiar play

 

[Jugada]

Personally I find it an interesting intellectual discussion how so many good form analysts have him clearly on top despite making the exact same mistake with Surprise Baby FU in the spring. I should say local analysts because anyone from Europe knows how much of a joke putting him in this race is. And rightly so.

It's all down to this Geelong trial - 10 years ago you would have never seen it and people would be laughing at the placement. In this case they will only be laughing at the placement post race.

Another garbage comparison. Two mile handicappers compared to a WFA 2000m star

He isn't running in Europe so doesn't need to follow their training methods. Plenty of our WFA champions pick up shorter race wins along the way

 

[mcnulty]

translation, going ordinary, will pretend to bring him back as a 3yo then retire him on an overpriced stud fee based on non existant potential

Slightly more generous interpretation- no way he beats my filly, as a 3yo I can at least keep him with the boys.

Admit yours is more likely.

 

[iluvparis]

Another garbage comparison. Two mile handicappers compared to a WFA 2000m star

He isn't running in Europe so doesn't need to follow their training methods. Plenty of our WFA champions pick up shorter race wins along the way

Or did our WFA champions pick up longer race wins along the way? I think its much more likely we stretched out milers to longer trips and they could win because our stayers are utter trash than we had some amazing group of stayers that could also win over shorter trips.

It's only a garbage comparison in hindsight because it didn't work. Pre race all the that was EXACTLY THE SAME as it is this week and he was hammered in betting on the day.

 

[Jugada]

Yes but he is 2.80 fave over a trip that the greatest trainer in history never bothered to get near trying over even though he WANTS gun milers for his breeding operation. Revealed preference says he doesn't get - which is the main information we have to go in.

The only lazy form going on is assuming he will run to his peak over a sub optimal distance.

Black Caviar never tried 3200 so would we just price her $2.50 in a Melbourne Cup?

Not a single person is saying he will run to his peak. Luckily he doesn't have to.

Aiden never ran SYT below 2000m. Didn't mean he couldn't win races below his preferred distance. He never would have started most Cox Plate winners at 1400m but that hasn't stopped any them winning I'm the past

 

[iluvparis]

Not a single person is saying he will run to his peak. Luckily he doesn't have to.

Aiden never ran SYT below 2000m. Didn't mean he couldn't win races below his preferred distance. He never would have started most Cox Plate winners at 1400m but that hasn't stopped any them winning I'm the past

Yes I've already said I think there is zero chance he is the next So You Think - and if he is that's great for oz racing!

 

[iluvparis]

A trip down memory lane from our departed friend Main Man in the lead up to the St George

FEBRUARY Daily Punt....

Thoughts on Protectionist this weekend?

www.bigfooty.com

Have you seen Protectionist run at those distances? Based on what they did in their Melbourne Cups Protectionist is a superior horse, what I'm saying is horses that have a dynamic sprint at the end of a staying trip are almost always as effective over shorter trips, you can either run fast or you cant, he can run very fast at the end of fast run long distances races, he will be able to run even faster at the end of shorter distances races.

He ran a faster last 200M split than most of the sprinters did on Melbourne Cup day, at the end of a brutally run 3200M.

Rightly clutchy saw straight through him and accurately called him out on this bullshit

 

[Jugada]

Or did our WFA champions pick up longer race wins along the way? I think its much more likely we stretched out milers to longer trips and they could win because our stayers are utter trash than we had some amazing group of stayers that could also win over shorter trips.

It's only a garbage comparison in hindsight because it didn't work. Pre race all the that was EXACTLY THE SAME as it is this week and he was hammered in betting on the day.

No it's garbage because it's garbage. Just cherry picking horses with no similarities to shoehorn an argument. Verry Elleegant a much better fit recently but she doesn't fit the argument like these 2 mile handicappers do

 

[Jugada]

Yes I've already said I think there is zero chance he is the next So You Think - and if he is that's great for oz racing!

It doesn't matter. Point is Aidens way isn't the only way and horses can perform outside of his strategy

 

[iluvparis]

No it's garbage because it's garbage. Just cherry picking horses with no similarities to shoehorn an argument. Verry Elleegant a much better fit recently but she doesn't fit the argument like these 2 mile handicappers do

No I've already disproven that one - already tried and succeeded over the trip at WFA - next?

 

[iluvparis]

It doesn't matter. Point is Aidens way isn't the only way and horses can perform outside of his strategy

Yes they can - but will they? There is way too much doubt for his current price to be a bet for any sane punter - and it is a truly horrendous race to be running in for a horse with bigger fish to fry.

 

[Jugada]

Yes they can - but will they? There is way too much doubt for his current price to be a bet for any sane punter - and it is a truly horrendous race to be running in for a horse with bigger fish to fry.

Everything I've seen of him out here suggest he is the one to beat. Blitzed a Cox Plate running fast sectionals and showed plenty of speed in a recent trial when asked to

 

[iluvparis]

Everything I've seen of him out here suggest he is the one to beat. Blitzed a Cox Plate running fast sectionals and showed plenty of speed in a recent trial when asked to

Yes - ran fast sectionals over 2000m - showed so much speed he was lounging out the back most of the race off a mad pace where everything up front dropped dead. It's already been shown that a whole bunch of faster horses had a better top speed than him in the race - he just powered over the top of them when they get tired which is his go to move. That won't happen over 1400m - he'll hit a flat spot at the 500-600 - and he won't have time to catch them as they won't tire as much.

There is NOTHING we have seen since he came out here to suggest he can run it except 'trial form' which I rate about as highly as people backing Sir D at sub $3 over 1400. You are just guessing/hoping which is fair enough but generally makes for a poor result on the punt.

You still haven't answered over what distance you WOULDN'T have him on top against this field. Would you back him in over 1000?

 

[Jugada]

Yes - ran fast sectionals over 2000m - showed so much speed he was lounging out the back most of the race off a mad pace where everything up front dropped dead. It's already been shown that a whole bunch of faster horses had a better top speed than him in the race - he just powered over the top of them when they get tired which is his go to move. That won't happen over 1400m - he'll hit a flat spot at the 500-600 - and he won't have time to catch them as they won't tire as much.

There is NOTHING we have seen since he came out here to suggest he can run it except 'trial form' which I rate about as highly as people backing Sir D at sub $3 over 1400. You are just guessing/hoping which is fair enough but generally makes for a poor result on the punt.

You still haven't answered over what distance you WOULDN'T have him on top against this field. Would you back him in over 1000?

The same guessing/hoping you are using for laying him because of the unknown at the trip?

I'd have him on top down to 1300m probably. I said the odds were debatable too but he has to be rated on top as the one to beat