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Realistically, if our key players stay fit we will have a very strong chance of making the 8. I'm talking about Swan, Reid, Pendles, Cloke, Brown, Sidebottom, Elliott and Witts. We should see improved output from just about every single player on our list, as we basically have no one other than Swan that's getting towards the end of their career and maybe only a few guys that have just about reached their ceilings (Toovey, Dwyer, Blair, Goldsack). If we can put a side that resembles something like this on the park, then I'll be very confident:
FB: Toovey Brown Williams
HB: Reid Frost Langdon
C: Varcoe Swan Sidebottom
HF: Elliott Cloke Broomhead
FF: Grundy White Kennedy
FOL: Witts Pendlebury Greenwood
INT: Freeman, Adams, Goldsack SUB: De Goey
Given we all acknowledge that our backline lacks distribution and run, I think we HAVE to play Reid back, ideally as the third tall defender. This will allow him to zone off his opponent to be the third man at contests, or act as a roadblock if his opponent gets drawn up the ground towards the contest. Then , when he gets the ball he can use his damaging left boot to set up play whether it be switches across ground or spotting up players in the centre of the ground.
Our midfield brigade of Varcoe, Swan, Sidebottom, Pendles, Greenwood, Elliott, Broomhead, Adams, Freeman and Kennedy gives us a good mix of inside grunt and speed on the outside. Having Greenwood, Pendles, Adams and Freeman winning the ball and dishing it out to the speedy users like Varcoe, Swan, Broomy and Elliott should hopefully allow us to damage the opposition with some clean clearances rather than blind kicks out of the pack to outnumbered forwards.
The forward line is still the big concern. Cloke and White both excel when they can lead up to the wings but we obviously need someone to stay at home and be a presence. Grundy is yet to show if he can be a dangerous forward presence or merely a witches hat once the ball hits the ground. We also have struggled to find someone capable of filling a crumbing role successfully. With the way we have moved the ball in the past, long and direct, there should have been plenty of crumbs for the small forwards. However, for whatever reason our structure let us down and Cloke has been 1 vs 3 with no other Pies players in sight. We absolutely must get better at having numbers at the contest in our forward line otherwise opposition sides cut us up on the rebound. Hopefully, Kennedy and Broomhead can assist with both providing numbers at the contest and also snagging some crumbing goals. Both have shown a nose for being able to find the footy in the forward line and create some opportunities out of nothing. If our young mids can stand up, playing Sidebottom as a half forward will also assist with midfield goals. I would be happy to sacrifice some fabled forward pressure for a small forward who can actually hit the scoreboard and this is why I wouldn't play Blair and Goldsack forward.
As far as the draw goes, as has been discussed we couldn't have asked for much more:
Pies go in favourites:
Saints, Carlton, Melbourne, GWS, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton (8)
50:50
Essendon, Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Richmond, Essendon (6)
Pies go in dogs:
Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne (8)
We should be looking to win at least 6 of those games we go in favourites. Playing GWS and West Coast in Melbourne is a distinct advantage. Games against Essendon are 50:50's pending what happens with ASADA. If bombers players cop any form of suspension they'd likely be out on ANZAC day. Games against Brisbane and Adelaide will likely determine if we can make the 8, they are both extremely winnable with Brisbane severely lacking in experienced talls and Adelaide being flat track bullies. Richmond games could honestly go either way also.
As far as our games versus top sides, we get the pick of the bunch with 2 games vs Geelong because we go into these with a decent chance given where Geelong are at. If we win 6 of the 8 as favourites, 3-4 of the 50:50s and pinch 2 games vs the top sides then we get 11-12 wins which will have us right on the cusp of the 8 if not in the 8.
FB: Toovey Brown Williams
HB: Reid Frost Langdon
C: Varcoe Swan Sidebottom
HF: Elliott Cloke Broomhead
FF: Grundy White Kennedy
FOL: Witts Pendlebury Greenwood
INT: Freeman, Adams, Goldsack SUB: De Goey
Given we all acknowledge that our backline lacks distribution and run, I think we HAVE to play Reid back, ideally as the third tall defender. This will allow him to zone off his opponent to be the third man at contests, or act as a roadblock if his opponent gets drawn up the ground towards the contest. Then , when he gets the ball he can use his damaging left boot to set up play whether it be switches across ground or spotting up players in the centre of the ground.
Our midfield brigade of Varcoe, Swan, Sidebottom, Pendles, Greenwood, Elliott, Broomhead, Adams, Freeman and Kennedy gives us a good mix of inside grunt and speed on the outside. Having Greenwood, Pendles, Adams and Freeman winning the ball and dishing it out to the speedy users like Varcoe, Swan, Broomy and Elliott should hopefully allow us to damage the opposition with some clean clearances rather than blind kicks out of the pack to outnumbered forwards.
The forward line is still the big concern. Cloke and White both excel when they can lead up to the wings but we obviously need someone to stay at home and be a presence. Grundy is yet to show if he can be a dangerous forward presence or merely a witches hat once the ball hits the ground. We also have struggled to find someone capable of filling a crumbing role successfully. With the way we have moved the ball in the past, long and direct, there should have been plenty of crumbs for the small forwards. However, for whatever reason our structure let us down and Cloke has been 1 vs 3 with no other Pies players in sight. We absolutely must get better at having numbers at the contest in our forward line otherwise opposition sides cut us up on the rebound. Hopefully, Kennedy and Broomhead can assist with both providing numbers at the contest and also snagging some crumbing goals. Both have shown a nose for being able to find the footy in the forward line and create some opportunities out of nothing. If our young mids can stand up, playing Sidebottom as a half forward will also assist with midfield goals. I would be happy to sacrifice some fabled forward pressure for a small forward who can actually hit the scoreboard and this is why I wouldn't play Blair and Goldsack forward.
As far as the draw goes, as has been discussed we couldn't have asked for much more:
Pies go in favourites:
Saints, Carlton, Melbourne, GWS, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton (8)
50:50
Essendon, Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Richmond, Essendon (6)
Pies go in dogs:
Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne (8)
We should be looking to win at least 6 of those games we go in favourites. Playing GWS and West Coast in Melbourne is a distinct advantage. Games against Essendon are 50:50's pending what happens with ASADA. If bombers players cop any form of suspension they'd likely be out on ANZAC day. Games against Brisbane and Adelaide will likely determine if we can make the 8, they are both extremely winnable with Brisbane severely lacking in experienced talls and Adelaide being flat track bullies. Richmond games could honestly go either way also.
As far as our games versus top sides, we get the pick of the bunch with 2 games vs Geelong because we go into these with a decent chance given where Geelong are at. If we win 6 of the 8 as favourites, 3-4 of the 50:50s and pinch 2 games vs the top sides then we get 11-12 wins which will have us right on the cusp of the 8 if not in the 8.
