First poll is out

[jimmy.h]

54 - 46.

and likely to fall more for labor.

On what basis?

 

[jimmy.h]

It's good to see dry rot making a bit of a comeback,it's been a tough few months for him.

If we take these polling numbers as read,how does it translate in pure seat numbers(approx.)?

If the swing were to be uniform, today's polls would see Labor winning between 82 and 87 seats in the house of reps and comfortably taking Government.

 

[evo]

If the swing were to be uniform, today's polls would see Labor winning between 82 and 87 seats in the house of reps and comfortably taking Government.

So we're still talking 83/67? Not that I keep a close on these things but that doesn't seem right.

 

[jimmy.h]

Interestingly, Labor's primary vote in the Nielson poll has actually gone up 1% despite the 2PP vote going down 2. I'm guessing this shows that the way the 2PP vote is rounded has made the change look greater than it actually is.

From theage.com.au:

Nielsen pollster John Stirton said while there was good news for both parties, overall the news was probably slightly better for the ALP. "Labor's primary vote is holding up at 48 per cent, right on its average for the year," Mr Stirton said. But he said the Coalition's primary vote, while not lifting significantly in this poll, "is nevertheless at its highest level in 12 months".

Not that the coalition cheer squad will take notice of what the pollsters actually make of the numbers.

 

[jimmy.h]

So we're still talking 83/67? Not that I keep a close on these things but that doesn't seem right.

In 2004 the coalition polled roughly 52.7% of the 2PP vote and ended up with 87 seats. A 56-44 2PP in 2007 would be a swing of 6.7% to the ALP (which is a greater swing than the last two changes of Government IIRC).

A swing of 6.7% across the country should see Labor pick up 8 seats in NSW alone.

 

[Murray]

Right where Labors own polling has them and has for months

 

[evo]

In 2004 the coalition polled roughly 52.7% of the 2PP vote and ended up with 87 seats. A 56-44 2PP in 2007 would be a swing of 6.7% to the ALP (which is a greater swing than the last two changes of Government IIRC).

A swing of 6.7% across the country should see Labor pick up 8 seats in NSW alone.

Ok cheers.

As I said,I haven't followed polling that closely in the past.I ussually just follow the betting.

 

[MightyFighting]

Ok cheers.

As I said,I haven't followed polling that closely in the past.I ussually just follow the betting.

Has there been any swing back to the Libs in the betting markets?

 

[Daytripper]

The ads from the Libs linking ALP ministers to their union roots have been brilliant in my opinion.

Makes people think 'hang on, we're not just voting for this bloke Rudd - we're also getting a lot of ex union people as well.'

Could the Textor research have shown that there is no way they could win the election based on a Howard v Rudd theme ?
Therefore the best way of attack is to concentrate on the ALP itself.

Still waiting on the ALP tax policy too.
Got a feeling they will leave this to the last minute.

 

[Dippers Donuts]

So labors primary vote goes up in the Nielsen poll? Now that's what I call a soft labor vote.

Not unhappy with this, given the barrage the tories have released in week one you would expect a slight dead cat bounce.

Rudd has kept his powder dry for much of the week and is still in landslide territory. Time to unleash some heavy artillery kev - bring out the tax plan before the debate and watch the rodent squirm.

It should also be noted that the tories under rodent have only ever reduced the polling margin once during a campaign - the 9/11 election. He is not a good campaigner (rodent i mean).

 

[1jasonoz]

The ads from the Libs linking ALP ministers to their union roots have been brilliant in my opinion.

Makes people think 'hang on, we're not just voting for this bloke Rudd - we're also getting a lot of ex union people as well.'

Could the Textor research have shown that there is no way they could win the election based on a Howard v Rudd theme ?
Therefore the best way of attack is to concentrate on the ALP itself.

Still waiting on the ALP tax policy too.
Got a feeling they will leave this to the last minute.

And they are false actually along with another add which the Master Builders Australia and the Housing Industry have told the Liberals to pull.

 

[sen entertainment bloke]

On what basis?

Looks tired in the photo. The move in the polls for Howard can only give him energy and cause Rudd problems of confidence.

Rudd lacks self belief relative to Howard, anyway, as far as being a prime minister goes. Howard believes he should be prime minister, it is what he does.

 

[Dippers Donuts]

Has there been any swing back to the Libs in the betting markets?

I'm sure there would be a slight swing back to the tories but that's because the polls have shown a slight swing back. Not the other way around.

It's a bit of a fallacy that the betting markets are any great indicator or have any greater insight. All they do is follow the polls, not lead them.

 

[evo]

Has there been any swing back to the Libs in the betting markets?

The last 4 or 5 days it's gone from Labor 1.45(which has been it's the shortest it's got) to now being 1.55

 

[jimmy.h]

Has there been any swing back to the Libs in the betting markets?

Most of the money to come in after Howard called the election was for a coalition victory, i think. Brought th coalition back in by about 5 cents. They still have Labor comfortable favorites.

 

[Daytripper]

And they are false actually along with another add which the Master Builders Australia and the Housing Industry have told the Liberals to pull.

Excuse me - how are they false ?

 

[jimmy.h]

Looks tired in the photo. The move in the polls for Howard can only give him energy and cause Rudd problems of confidence.

An increase in primary vote of 1% compared to Howard's increase of 2% is not going to cause Rudd any problems of confidence.

Apparently Labor's internal polling has consistently shown a 54-46 2PP number, why is the duplication of this number going to suddenly cause him to lose confiednce?

 

[dan warna]

think labor won 51.8% of the GST election vote TPP and still lost convincingly on the floor.

same thing happened to the liberals a few years earlier.

uniform swings are not likely to happen.

interestingly 70% odd percent they would rather the 34 billion be invested in schools and hospitals.

if Rudd is fast and smart, he can offer 1/2 to 1/3 of that as tax cuts of the liberals and redirect some the hospitals and schools.

with a strat like that he can appeal to the middle incomers who think with their pockets and appeal to those with an eye on expenditure, and if he plops some ini the govts funding appeal to those with an eye on splashing govt money pressuring interest rates.

Howard has left a massive gaping hole here with his largesse and Rudd can capitalise nicely if he's quick.

 

[Dry Rot]

I thought your position was that Howard would win this thing.

Still is.

 

[Qsaint]

For ALP supporters this is quite good

Libs have fired their 1 big shot and the ALP has announced very little

 

[MightyFighting]

For ALP supporters this is quite good

Libs have fired their 1 big shot and the ALP has announced very little

It depends what the ALP has in their barrel.

 

[MrMeaner]

I hate all public polls and yet I can't get enough of them.

 

[stephen_bayne]

personally I'm skeptical about these results due to the fact that the polls were way off in 2004. They indicated the Coalition would win a close one and we all know how that turned out. I'd be more inclined to believe the bookies. I'm sure Howard and Costello will be dripping with arrogance non the less.

 

[Z_K]

Not concerned by this poll, but slightly worried that at no stage have Labor looked like controlling an issue or dictating terms. Only a few days in I know, but if this was a game of footy I'd say that the heavily favoured side have been reading too much of their own press and might find it difficult to wrestle back control should it continue.

Don't think. Do!!!

 

[stephen_bayne]

Yeah, I'm worried by the Labor parties lack of action but I'm also worried that the tax promise and scare tactic ads worked. If so I've got a lot of bridges to sell to the people of Australia.