First poll is out

[Black Panther]

Galaxy in Friday's News Limited papers

ALP 53% (-3%)
LNP 47% (+3%)

 

[kirky]

Galaxy in Friday's News Limited papers

ALP 53% (-3%)
LNP 47% (+3%)

Not a bad result for ALP given the tax cuts got major press space and whilst it may give the Coalition a bit of impteus, it will drop out over time.

PS: If the polling gets close, those that were tempted to back Coalition may decide, no I don't want to go there and go back to the ALP. Closer polls are a better result for ALP than Coalition.

 

[Murray]

I think A C Neilsen in Fairfax also out tomorrow, still has it at 10% to 12%

 

[Black Panther]

The Vulcan polling dude on 7:30 Report tonight was of the view that the ALP vote was very soft in terms of polls

Was in some paper last weekend that the ALP could finish with a 52-48% TPP vote and still lose

 

[pazza]

No surprise.

The tax Cut thing was the rabbit out of the hat the Coalition needed..but, will it be remembered 6 weeks from now?

 

[Dry Rot]

Galaxy in Friday's News Limited papers

ALP 53% (-3%)
LNP 47% (+3%)

Galaxy in Friday's News Limited papers

ALP 53% (-3%)
LNP 47% (+3%)

Has to be wrong.

There is no soft ALP vote. And the polls over these months have been accurate, rather than people finally beginning to focus on the election.

I think A C Neilsen in Fairfax also out tomorrow, still has it at 10% to 12%

That's more like it.

 

[jo172]

Closer polls are a better result for ALP than Coalition.

Jeez, that's some serious spin there!

Closing the gap is a good thing for the coalition and I don't think you're going to convince anyone of anything different

 

[Dry Rot]

Jeez, that's some serious spin there!

Closing the gap is a good thing for the coalition and I don't think you're going to convince anyone of anything different

Yes, I thought it was so silly it wasn't worth a comment.

 

[CharlieG]

Not really concerned about this. For a start, Galaxy polls dance around like a drunken sailor. Second, 53-47 is within this poll's MOE (about 3.5%) of the more typical 55-57 band that Labor's vote has been within for months. Third, apparently the much more credible AC Neilsen will contradict this poll tomorrow. Fourth, even if the polls do narrow to around 53-47 within the next week or so, this should be the kick in the pants that a thus-far lacklustre ALP campaign needs.

 

[Dry Rot]

Fourth, even if the polls do narrow to around 53-47 within the next week or so, this should be the kick in the pants that a thus-far lacklustre ALP campaign needs.

Yes, even beyond the promised Liberal tax cuts (which will = future interst rate rises), the ALP has looked pretty ordinary so far.

Aside from a few minor things and a housing afoordability stunt, there's not been much.

Howard looks like a man possessed and whatever happens, he won't die wondering this election. Libs are calling the shots, and Rudd needs to wrest that back.

This union stuff is interesting, presume a result of Textor Crosby research.

Interesting to see what Ted Horton does for the rest of the campaign.

 

[CharlieG]

Yes, even beyond the promised Liberal tax cuts (which will = future interst rate rises), the ALP has looked pretty ordinary so far.

Aside from a few minor things and a housing afoordability stunt, there's not been much.

Howard looks like a man possessed and whatever happens, he won't die wondering this election. Libs are calling the shots, and Rudd needs to wrest that back.

I'm not too concerned. Howard has had to play his best card just to look like he is still alive. Rudd will re-claim the initiative.

This union stuff is interesting, presume a result of Textor Crosby research.

I doubt it. They've been running with it all year. If it was coming up that strongly in Crosby/Textor research, it would be at least showing something in the public opinion polls. They're just going on about it because they've got nothing else to say.

You need to get over this thing with Ted Horton and Crosby/Textor. Ted's early efforts have been unimpressive, to say the least.

 

[Dry Rot]

You need to get over this thing with Ted Horton and Crosby/Textor. Ted's early efforts have been unimpressive, to say the least.

Both of us will only know on the night of the 24th November.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Black Panther]

apparently the much more credible AC Neilsen will contradict this poll tomorrow.

Nup, same trend 12 point gap into an 8 point gap

ALP 54% (-2%)
LNP 46% (+2%)

Preferred PM

KRudd 47% (-5%)
Howard 43% (+4%)

 

[medusala]

Yes, even beyond the promised Liberal tax cuts (which will = future interst rate rises), the ALP has looked pretty ordinary so far.

This is very debatable for a few reasons

1) the world economy will slow (see IMF yday, todays BOA results etc)
2) the cuts are phased in over time and dont start immediately
3) Howard will probably alter them if he gets back in and cite economic circumstances.

 

[Dry Rot]

Nup, same trend 12 point gap into an 8 point gap

ALP 54% (-2%)
LNP 46% (+2%)

Preferred PM

KRudd 47% (-5%)
Howard 43% (+4%)

Interesting, but surely must be a statistical error? There is NO ALP soft vote.

 

[CharlieG]

Nup, same trend 12 point gap into an 8 point gap

ALP 54% (-2%)
LNP 46% (+2%)

Preferred PM

KRudd 47% (-5%)
Howard 43% (+4%)

Yep, saw that. Still within the MOE though, so I'm not sure you can read anything into it with great confidence. Nevertheless, it will actually be useful in terms of the campaign. It will send a message to any Labor candidates who are kicking back thinking that the marginal Coalition seat they're contesting is in the bag. It'll send the same message to front benchers who can't wait to get back to Canberra and start furnishing their offices in the Ministerial Wing.

Finally, it might be a good thing to dampen the expectations of a landslide defeat. One of the very few things that could bring Rudd unstuck is if people think Labor is going to win by too much, and then (absurdly, in my mind, but apparently not in theirs) vote Coalition because they want a viable opposition.

 

[GoldenSky]

Nup, same trend 12 point gap into an 8 point gap

ALP 54% (-2%)
LNP 46% (+2%)

Preferred PM

KRudd 47% (-5%)
Howard 43% (+4%)

I think the Preferred PM results of this poll would be particularly pleasing for the Coalition to see. It is one area Rudd has dominated this year. It shows that Howard is still well liked in the electorate, which I believe will be important come election day.

 

[Dry Rot]

Rudd was well ahead, but Howard was not on the nose.*


*See George Bush's approval ratings for a leader on the nose.

 

[medusala]

I think the Preferred PM results of this poll would be particularly pleasing for the Coalition to see. It is one area Rudd has dominated this year. It shows that Howard is still well liked in the electorate, which I believe will be important come election day.

how important is this? I would have thought that quite a few opposition leaders who won elections would have been well behind on this score particularly at state level

Do the pollsters put much store in it?

 

[DaveW]

Taking the two polls together, I think the fairest conclusion is that there has been some movement to the Coalition this week. (Sorry Charlie)

But it begs some questions.

The "soft vote" theory...
Is the movement based on the calling of the election? i.e. Voters have switched on and the Coalition vote has solidified. If so, is it the beginning of a trend? i.e. As the election draws nearer, the more voters tune in and the more the polls narrow. Or, was the announcement of the election the only "wake up call" the government had available? i.e. All the voters are tuned in now and they're still giving Labor a large lead.

The tax cuts theory...
So the Coalition won week one of the campaign. That's what the polls reflect. But that means the Coalition will need to continue to chalk up these 'wins'. Without them the polls stay as they are. Worse, if Labor scores a few 'wins' the polls will once again widen.

(Just to clarify: I'm not espousing any of these things. Just taking the theories and running them to, what I think, are their logical conclusions.)

 

[DaveW]

Interesting, but surely must be a statistical error? There is NO ALP soft vote.

I thought your position was that Howard would win this thing. Not that he'd knock a few points off Labor's lead.

 

[CharlieG]

Taking the two polls together, I think the fairest conclusion is that there has been some movement to the Coalition this week. (Sorry Charlie)

LOL. You're quite correct, but citing Galaxy goes against all my instincts.

 

[evo]

It's good to see dry rot making a bit of a comeback,it's been a tough few months for him.

If we take these polling numbers as read,how does it translate in pure seat numbers(approx.)?

 

[Theseventhhamster]

I'm scared.

 

[sen entertainment bloke]

I think A C Neilsen in Fairfax also out tomorrow, still has it at 10% to 12%

54 - 46.

and likely to fall more for labor.