Future 2nd for a future 3rd merry-go-round

[Scodog10]

Watch this thread get to 100 pages before about July.

I’m both fearful and excited at the prospect of him coming in to top 10 calculations after the disaster that was the Murray trade...

Fearful because if we trade for Lynch it leaves our first pick circa 45 and that means we’ll need to trade out in order to get a top 25 pick in. God knows what it’ll take to get that deal done given the speculated quality of this draft. Excited obviously because we have a shot at a top 10 talent through an academy!

It’s early days, but Hine’s comments about the Murray deal giving us more flexibility could go down as some of the most bizarre ever uttered around trade time.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

It’s early days, but Hine’s comments about the Murray deal giving us more flexibility could go down as some of the most bizarre ever uttered around trade time.

They wanted the player and they obviously rated him highly enough to think that it was worth overpaying a bit to get him in. That's fine and time will tell if the decision was justified.

They could've easily said something like: "We think he's going to be an excellent player for us and judging by our internal rating of him, he was worth the price. Fans shouldn't judge him on his draft position and lack of AFL experience in a team that is stacked in his position. We have done our homework, so give him time. You'll be pleasantly surprised by what he brings".

Instead, they papered over it all with some complete rubbish about "flexibility" and suggested that fans who think we paid overs simply don't understand the process. It's condescending in the extreme. What these guys do isn't very hard to understand. The draft process is bloody simple and anyone with half a brain can understand it. It's the talent identification that takes skill. They should've gone with that, because it's where their information advantage is.

 

[TradeDraft]

I’m both fearful and excited at the prospect of him coming in to top 10 calculations after the disaster that was the Murray trade...

Fearful because if we trade for Lynch it leaves our first pick circa 45 and that means we’ll need to trade out in order to get a top 25 pick in. God knows what it’ll take to get that deal done given the speculated quality of this draft. Excited obviously because we have a shot at a top 10 talent through an academy!

It’s early days, but Hine’s comments about the Murray deal giving us more flexibility could go down as some of the most bizarre ever uttered around trade time.

You can use Future Picks in Matching a Bid but yeah Trading the 2nd Rounder this year makes this Harder

 

[Scodog10]

You can use Future Picks in Matching a Bid but yeah Trading the 2nd Rounder this year makes this Harder

Great point TD and it comes back to the comment on flexibility. In regards to my “what if” around Lynch what do you think it’ll take to land him in a trade? I don’t think we’re getting him for less than our 2018 and 2019 first round picks. If Quaynor gets a bid in the first round and we choose to go into deficit it comes off that round pick in the future draft so it’s also not an option available to us in that scenario...

All these people came out to say that “it only cost them the equivalent of pick 45 blah blah blah” (that was with the pointless pick 70 included...) and what they’re completely missing is that if we finish 8-10 next year our third rounder is about 45. Where is the logic in trading out of the second round when you have Quaynor on the horizon and will hold an equivalent selection anyway?

This is not to detract from Quaynor at all because I’m super excited at the prospect of tracking his progress next year, but I can’t escape the desire to hold Hine accountable for the arrogance of his comments in assuming the average Joe wouldn’t understand the system enough to realise he ****ed up!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

They wanted the player and they obviously rated him highly enough to think that it was worth overpaying a bit to get him in. That's fine and time will tell if the decision was justified.

They could've easily said something like: "We think he's going to be an excellent player for us and judging by our internal rating of him, he was worth the price. Fans shouldn't judge him on his draft position and lack of AFL experience in a team that is stacked in his position. We have done our homework, so give him time. You'll be pleasantly surprised by what he brings".

Instead, they papered over it all with some complete rubbish about "flexibility" and suggested that fans who think we paid overs simply don't understand the process. It's condescending in the extreme. What these guys do isn't very hard to understand. The draft process is bloody simple and anyone with half a brain can understand it. It's the talent identification that takes skill. They should've gone with that, because it's where their information advantage is.

Boris the C, you're wording is the best way it could have been done.
Always better to simply say, we really liked him, we wanted him, we got him.
If the question is about price paid, simply say we are paying about 20 to 30 spots from mid range in next year's draft.

At the end only his playing will determine if it's good or poor for us.

(Ofcourse the real pain point for many is: could we have actually done the deal for a lots less anyway?
Many feel yes they could have done it cheaper. And they themselves leading the negotiations would have.)

 

[TheSierBear]

I’m both fearful and excited at the prospect of him coming in to top 10 calculations after the disaster that was the Murray trade...

Fearful because if we trade for Lynch it leaves our first pick circa 45 and that means we’ll need to trade out in order to get a top 25 pick in. God knows what it’ll take to get that deal done given the speculated quality of this draft. Excited obviously because we have a shot at a top 10 talent through an academy!

It’s early days, but Hine’s comments about the Murray deal giving us more flexibility could go down as some of the most bizarre ever uttered around trade time.

How can it be a disaster when you've never actually seen Murray play?

 

[El cane]

A sneaky little mention of Isaac here from Twomey. Based on early reports he must be doing something right to be mentioned in this company.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-25/the-next-batch-looking-ahead-to-the-2018-draft

Scodog, I hadn't seen your message when I posted on the other thread but I can't help but agree with you. Alarm bells are ringing here. I have such a mistrust of this organisation after the last 5years of crap they've churned out. No doubt I'm disappointed they didn't trade to get a bid for Ed Richards too.

But this Quaynor speculation, the Murray trade, the staff merry go round and the KPP debacle it just cuts to the bone for me that they don't really have a plan and don't really know how to deliver it.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

As a white Australian that means I can claim my African heritage which is cool as Aboriginals can too.

Is that you Prince Heritier?

 

[Scodog10]

How can it be a disaster when you've never actually seen Murray play?

I don’t actually have the ability to explain this to you with all the information I’ve shared on the topic and you are still asking that question.

 

[TheSierBear]

I don’t actually have the ability to explain this to you I feel if you don’t fully understand it as yet.

I'm not sure how you could explain how you believe the jury is in on the value of Murray considering you've never seen him play before at any level? To claim it is would be brainless. Although I think you were fishing when you claimed it was a disaster already.

For me I'll have a better idea in 6 months, and then a really good idea in a couple of years, but the jury may only come in in five years time when we can compare him to the class of 2018 to what we may have gotten or what we might have missed out on.

As I said, your claim that it was a disaster was you just looking for bites as you usually do, surely you're aware of your behaivour?

 

[sr36]

I don’t actually have the ability to explain this to you with all the information I’ve shared on the topic and you are still asking that question.

When we're looking at a deep draft coming and factor in things like we've just seen with Murphy - clubs rating players very differently - do you really think it's a disaster - bloody strong word? The difference between our 2nd and Sydney's 3rd will probably only knock us a couple of players down our list of draft targets and there is a reasonable chance that we would end up with the same player anyway.

 

[Scodog10]

I'm not sure how you could explain how you believe the jury is in on the value of Murray considering you've never seen him play before at any level? To claim it is would be brainless. Although I think you were fishing when you claimed it was a disaster already.

For me I'll have a better idea in 6 months, and then a really good idea in a couple of years, but the jury may only come in in five years time when we can compare him to the class of 2018 to what we may have gotten or what we might have missed out on.

As I said, your claim that it was a disaster was you just looking for bites as you usually do, surely you're aware of your behaivour?

I would love to know what planet you live on one day because it certainly isn’t earth. Reverse to my first post re Isaac generating this discussion and you may eventually get it, but for now I’ll leave you to ponder it

FWIW to help you a little. I rate what Murray has to offer, but that doesn’t alter the value of the deal...

 

[Horaceg]

How can it be a disaster when you've never actually seen Murray play?

,...or seen him play wearing black and white stripes

 

[Horaceg]

I would love to know what planet you live on one day because it certainly isn’t earth. Reverse to my first post re Isaac generating this discussion and you may eventually get it, but for now I’ll leave you to ponder it

FWIW to help you a little. I rate what Murray has to offer, but that doesn’t alter the value of the deal...

It doesn’t look great on the surface now but it may in 12 months, he’s locked in now and that’s what matters. I don’t know why they went so hard for him but let’s hope those in the know do.

 

[TheSierBear]

I would love to know what planet you live on one day because it certainly isn’t earth. Reverse to my first post re Isaac generating this discussion and you may eventually get it, but for now I’ll leave you to ponder it

FWIW to help you a little. I rate what Murray has to offer, but that doesn’t alter the value of the deal...

You've never seen Murray play before and you have no idea how the 2018 crop will pan out or how our pick swaps affect us; I will reserve my judgement for perhaps another five years or so. Only an idiot would resolutely claim otherwise to know the value of something they've not seen before; or a troll

 

[Scodog10]

It doesn’t look great on the surface now but it may in 12 months, he’s locked in now and that’s what matters. I don’t know why they went so hard for him but let’s hope those in the know do.

I do. They love what he offers! We just fluffed the negotiations.

There’ll be some amongst us that will retrospectively mark it as a win when he comes on (just as they did with the WHE deal) which won’t actually change that it was a dud and has severely impacted our ability to get deals done in 2018.

 

[Scodog10]

You've never seen Murray play before and you have no idea how the 2018 crop will pan out or how our pick swaps affect us; I will reserve my judgement for perhaps another five years or so. Only an idiot would resolutely claim otherwise to know the value of something they've not seen before; or a troll

If you’re going to have a crack you might as well be resolute in what you actually think you numpty!

 

[Horaceg]

I do. They love what he offers! We just fluffed the negotiations.

There’ll be some amongst us that will retrospectively mark it as a win when he comes on (just as they did with the WHE deal) which won’t actually change that it was a dud and has severely impacted our ability to get deals done in 2018.

It's clear what he offers and a need for us, what we don't know is if we got it right because we don't know if we just wanted him a little more than Sydney did. I'm not sure we fluffed the negotiations because I wasn't in the room. In any event I'm looking forward to finding out, he fills a need.

 

[Horaceg]

[QUOTE

 

[TheSierBear]

If you’re going to have a crack you might as well be resolute in what you actually think you numpty!

I'd rather quote I believe Billy Bryson I think it was who referenced Rumsfeld in one of his books, but it's really a quote from Donald Rumsfeld.

'there are no "knowns." There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know.'

I'm resolute that the success of the Murray trade is a known unknown for now. You're claiming a known unknown a disaster. It's clearly idiotic. I'm sure you were aware you were tolling though? Anyways, my last response on this topic. You are a waste of time. And a nasty piece of work, world needs less people like you.

 

[Scodog10]

It's clear what he offers and a need for us, what we don't know is if we got it right because we don't know if we just wanted him a little more than Sydney did. I'm not sure we fluffed the negotiations because I wasn't in the room. In any event I'm looking forward to finding out, he fills a need.

Do you suppose we went in to the negotiations expecting to have a 2nd round pick involved? I’d say there’s no chance we initially thought we’d need to give that match up (regardless of what came back). We flinched and I’m tired of giving the club excuses for bad results. I’ve accepted it and would simply say we should put plans in place to prevent it from happening again.

FWIW that’s not to say your opinion isn’t the way people should view it. It’s more about why I’m strong on it the way I am and the need for us to be better as a club.

 

[sr36]

I do. They love what he offers! We just fluffed the negotiations.

There’ll be some amongst us that will retrospectively mark it as a win when he comes on (just as they did with the WHE deal) which won’t actually change that it was a dud and has severely impacted our ability to get deals done in 2018.

If he ends up being worth the price, the deal isn't a dud deal. You seem to be suggesting that your rating of a player's value is definitely correct and remains correct even if the future shows that you underestimated the player's value. Yes GWS dumped some players for significantly less than WHE's price, but the difference is that they wanted to keep WHE. Likewise Sydney wanted to keep Murray, thus he didn't go for a Marley Williams price. I appreciate that you think we paid too much, but if he becomes a decent senior he is worth the price. If he becomes more than decent, it'll be a great deal. If he doesn't make it, the difference between a second and third rounder in a deep draft is minimal anyway. Do you judge the use of draft picks in the draft the same way as you judge them when used in a trade - eg. The drafting of Pendlebury remains a dud deal as he hadn't done enough to warrant Pick 5?

 

[Scodog10]

I'd rather quote I believe Billy Bryson I think it was who referenced Rumsfeld in one of his books, but it's really a quote from Donald Rumsfeld.

'there are no "knowns." There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know.'

I'm resolute that the success of the Murray trade is a known unknown for now. You're claiming a known unknown a disaster. It's clearly idiotic. I'm sure you were aware you were tolling though? Anyways, my last response on this topic. You are a waste of time. And a nasty piece of work, world needs less people like you.

I might quote Mark Twain. It’s better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you’re a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. I reckon it’s best if you don’t quote me moving forward because you’ve removed all doubt and I won’t be acknowledging you. Enjoy the rest of the day

 

[TheSierBear]

I might quote Mark Twain. It’s better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you’re a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. I reckon it’s best if you don’t quote me moving forward because you’ve removed all doubt and I won’t be acknowledging you. Enjoy the rest of the day

Thank god, because as the saying goes, never argue with an idiot because they will bring you down to their level. I won't be brought down to your level in future.

Cya!