Game Analysis

[Dumbledore]

ITS THE FORWARD LINE STUPID......it is the Eagles Achilles heel, Freo's rebound will get us, Freo by 9 points....I hate to say

 

[dockers_bengals]

Well put,we also have Ibbotson who has only played 2 games also.
I don't think either team seems happy to have the derby now after the starts they have had.
Both teams need this game badly if you look past it we have rich(h)ade(a)geel(h) 1-5 or 2-4 could be quite possible and they have syd(a)port(h)wb(a)could be the same results.

 

[estibador]

Hola, como estas?

Hola, muy bien gracias.

I can't hope to match Scotland's excellent write up for balanced analysis so my piece will probably have more of a Freo perspective.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

West Coast vs Fremantle Sat 5th April 2008

OVERVIEW (AKA - A History of Animosity)

Derbies have always had a spiteful edge to them - despite the media peddling the myth that Freo are to blame for the aggression between the two teams. The difference is the early spite was all one sided - and since it came from the eagles nobody cared enough to write sensationalised stories about it.

Part of the reason old-skool Dockers fans harbour such dislike for the eagles (despite the obvious one - their supporters ) is the result of watching Woosha and his premiership hardened team physically and mentally pulverise the early Freo teams of undersized youngsters into submission. And they made no secret of their feelings towards Freo with several of their stars openly showing a lack of respect towards the Dockers in the press. (Hmm... where have I heard that before?)

The mental scars from those early hidings ran so deep that it would take Freo 5 years and 10 derbies before they finally conquered their demons and notched a win against their cross-town neighbours - throwing the obese gorilla off their back with a 47 point trouncing in R16 1999.

But it was the 2nd derby of the next year that proved to be the watershed moment in the relationship of the two clubs. Dubbed the 'demolition derby' it remains one of the greatest and most controversial western derbies in history. Led by the legendary Dale Kickett, Freo drew one of those oft talked about lines in the sand and proved once and for all that they were never going to be intimidated by the eagles ever again. In a spiteful and bad tempered confrontation a series of violent melees broke out during the course of the match - which Freo won by a solitary point.

In the aftermath, a total of 15 weeks suspensions were handed out as well as untold thousands worth of fines. For his part Kickett received a 9 match suspension and a permanent place in the hearts of Freo supporters.

Freo were roundly blamed for their aggressive tactics and to this day there remains an urban legend that Freo went into the match with premeditated violence in their plans. But what was quickly forgotten in the wash-up (and is still largely forgotten today) was that it was the eagles who came out swinging when Michael Gardiner attacked first year Docker Matthew Pavlich before the first bounce. Despite Gardiner being suspended for two weeks for his actions there still persists a myth that Freo initiated the violence.

Things calmed down for a while until the first derby of last year when the unfortunate incident between Selwood and Headland brought the bad blood between the two teams boiling up to an unprecedented level. And the last derby did nothing to dissipate tensions with Freo clearly aiming to unsettle the eagles with physical tactics. Once again Freo were roundly criticised despite the fact that if you swapped the jumpers over you could have been forgiven for thinking you were watching a derby from 1995.

And so as a result of all this the western derby has now become one of the marquee games in the AFL calender. And in terms of intensity on the field it is probably the greatest rivalry in the league today. No exceptions - despite what Victorians would have you believe (and we can forget about the SA rivalry because even they don't bother to watch that anymore).

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

Both teams will come out snarling in the first quarter despite the relatively low key build up this week. The eagles were very ordinary last week and have copped a bit of a hammering in the press by their standards. Usually the golden boys of the media, the eagles aren't used to criticism and will no doubt be stung by all the bad press usually reserved for Freo.

And Freo... well Freo always cop a hammering in the press and they will be aching to ensure they don't end up 0-3 and looking down the barrel of another tough season. Expect it to be very willing early.

You could argue that Freo caught the eagles napping in the last derby. The eagles were cruising to a top 4 spot having just spanked the Doggies in Melbourne. Freo's season was all but over after the mother of all hidings by Geelong at Subi. But there will be no ambush this time. Both teams are desperate for a win to get their season's back on track.

If there's one thing we can glean from the last derby it's that Woosha v Harvey derbies will be very physical affairs. Both were notorious hard men who never took a backward step on the field and both coach their men to play in the same fashion. Add in the extra intensity we've come to expect from western derbies and we can safely expect to be treated to a classic series of matches in the upcoming years. Good old fashioned derbies where you can guarantee a lot of niggle, a lot of aggression, and a spot-fire or two for good measure.

The Strengths (Freo perspective)

Having to hold their own in a team notorious for losing centre clearances has forced the Freo backline to become excellent rebounders of the football. Through necessity many of Freo's attacks have to be started from the half back line and Hayden, Mundy, Johnson and co form one of the most attacking backlines in the league.

Perhaps too attacking at times, but against an underwhelming eagles attack this could be one area Freo can gain a significant advantage. Look for the Freo half backline to play extremely attacking footy and run their opponents up the ground at every opportunity.

The Weaknesses (Freo perspective)

Ask this question before any derby this millennium and the answer would be obvious - the midfield. With the eagles having one of the most awesome midfield quartets ever assembled in Cox, Judd, Cousins and Kerr - and Freo having a plodding midfield best described as workmanlike - then it's a wonder Freo every managed to win a derby.

But things are different this time. The eagles blue chip midfield stocks have taken a downturn to rival the great stock market crash of 1929. And despite missing Hasleby the Freo midfield has been bolstered by 'the greatest youngster to ever lace up a pair of boots' in Rhys Palmer. Things are looking decidedly more even in the centre square these days.

Freo's biggest weakness thus far has been their own skills. They've matched their opponents in intensity only to be let down by their continual butchering of the ball going into the forward line. With all due respect to our two opponents Freo have been our own worst enemy this year. Sharpening up the footskill - particularly delivery to the forwards - will go a long way to ensuring a victory tomorrow.

Key Match Ups

Pavlich vs Glass - arguably the most important battle on the field between arguably the two best players on it (arguable in Glass's case anyway, certainly not in Pav's). It's the worst kept secret in WA that Glass is nursing a sore knee so look for Pav to push out from CHF and run Glass up and down the ground. If Glass doesn't play expect Pav to stick closer to goals.

Cox vs Sandilands & Gilmore - another pivotal battle. Cox is probably one of the hardest players in the AFL to match up on - an excellent tap ruckman who becomes a virtual ruck rover around the ground. Don't be surprised if Sandilands and Gilmore both play on the ground with Sandi taking the centre taps before pushing down to become the third tall forward while Gilmore runs with Cox around the ground.

Carr(s) vs Kerr - poor Kerr has become a marked man these days and it will only get worse tomorrow. Look for Freo to rotate a heavy tag on him all day - and look for Josh Carr to be at his absolute niggling best. Kerr has been known to have the occasional aggro brain snap and no doubt Josh will be aiming for just that reaction this weekend.

Lynch vs Mcpharlin - the eagles don't have much in the way of class in their forward line but Lynch is very important to their structure. If McPharlin can blanket him, or even outmark him consistently, it will cause a lot of hesitation in the eagles midfield play and make life a lot easier for Freo's mids.

Farmer vs Nicoski/Jones - this looms as a real danger match up for the eagles. Chick has done a good job on Farmer in the past and is exactly the aggressive, niggling, tight defender that works best on the Wiz. It's doubtful whether they have anyone else in their current team who can do as good a job.

Prediction

Personally I've never been so confident about a derby before. Whether that will come back to bite me on the ass only time will tell.

The eagles looked a million dollars in the first quarter against Brisbane before they stopped dead in their tracks. And it seemed they left their guts and determination in the fruit and vegetable bin at the airport when they travelled to take on their one time bunnies last week.

Freo, while not being great, have not been disgraced against two teams widely expected to be top 4 this year. For me they look too strong all over the ground, and with the eagles not having a star studded midfield to compensate anymore I sense a relatively comfortable Freo win.

Freo by 36 points.

 

[Quinz]

Great write up Esti.

I agree that the Wiz will be a difficult match up for us, Chick is exactly the sort of player you want playing on him. Wirra doens't play accountable enough and has been drifting forward anyway, Nicoski likewise who had a poor game against Adelaide (although who didn't), and Brett Jones may not be quick enough.

 

[pinkus maximus]

very nice esti

i have to agree, i am very confident about this game

i remember thinking earlier in the year that the weages midfield looked very freoish on paper ie one paced and workman-like, and so far they have played that way

we need a 5 -10 % lift from 3-4 out of form players however

 

[bushie]

Kudos to both analysts.

Find a better and more balanced write-up anywhere, and I want to read it.

BigFooty at its best..

 

[micfreo]

yeah great write up's better than anythig i saw in (what do u guys call it ) THE WORST today (btw couldn't agree more with that name) that i pay a buck 20 for everyday also i have this strange feelng that we will win easily im picking 57 pts , i've never been this confident

 

[Frigate]

Geez we need someone like you writing for the West Esti. Sensational stuff.

 

[FD369]

Great write up from both sides of the fence. Well done guys

One would hope that those mugs that are actually paid as "journos"(my god thats a very loose job description when it includes Barra) might read this thread and learn how to write insightful, balanced articles.

You guys might pick up a job if Kerry Stokes gets his way with The Worst

 

[Cheetah]

Really well done Scotland & Esti, a fair/balanced read.

 

[ImperialPurple]

I'll add my congrats and appreciation for terrific analyses from both sides of the fence. Nice one fellas.



(If only i shared your optimism esti - I've got those pre-game nerves big time at the moment... )

 

[Scotland]

No focus on improving accountability equals game over West Coast. Keeping the ball in the forward line needs to be a focus. Not allowing Headland, Peake, Palmer etc. 15m of space needs to be a focus. Dodd, Johnson, Grover, Black (should he play), Mundy & Hayden will be the real match-winners should Freo get up. Run and carry from defence kills West Coast, just ask Port Adelaide, they have killed us with it for years, and other sides are only just catching on.

Palmer 24 possessions, Schammer 22 possessions, Peake 17 possessions, far too many of them free in space for all 3. Clearly not allowing these guys space wasn't a focus.

Mundy 25 possessions, Johnson 25 possessions, Dodd 21 possessions, Hayden 19 possessions.

Clearly something that can be called by a fan on an anonymous internet forum can't be identified by the coaching staff and/or match committee of an AFL club.

Prediction

Fremantle by 2-3 goals

Sucks to be right.

 

[DockerNJL]

Well done scotland great analysis, hope your doing the write up next time too