Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt1

[cats_09]

As we are now getting into the season and we are starting to get a bit more serious with discussion, seems a suitable time to post the following as it's repeatedly shown itself to be a value reference tool in trade & draft discussion

And as per normal, thanks to Lore for putting this together - always a fantastic reference tool



And yes this post is now stickied - makes it easy to keep track of (can easily reverse this though if needed)

 

[Sire of Claude]

An A-grade ruckman is a huge asset, but journeymen ruck men are meh. After all we won the flag with Stanley who has been bagged here for years. Some posters never wanted to see him again after Hickey thrashed him that day.

PO is right: we need mids and a classy defender - or too. Parish or Smith would improve the team immediately.

Are there any more Karl Amons out there?

 

[Kitcat]

Yeah, that was basically the whole point of my post.

And the point of my post about winning hard balls is that I don’t rely just on statistics, even if they show that Duncan came tenth in contested possessions.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah, that was basically the whole point of my post.

And the point of my post about winning hard balls is that I don’t rely just on statistics, even if they show that Duncan came tenth in contested possessions.

So Duncan won more contested possessions in 2023 than 2022, but because your eyes told you he won less, he did win less?

And the stats say he's exactly in the middle for our group, but your eyes say he's at the bottom, so he is at the bottom?

Did it feel like Close kicked more goals than Hawkins? Cause I've got stats on that too.

 

[moond0g]

I think that's balanced by the fact they've chased him for two seasons now.

Perhaps a little, but they're not stupid.

They may try and manoeuvre things so they can offer a pick in the 25-35 range. But talk of a first rounder, particularly a future first which could end up being a top 10 pick, are fanciful.

 

[calder_daddy]

An A-grade ruckman is a huge asset, but journeymen ruck men are meh. After all we won the flag with Stanley who has been bagged here for years. Some posters never wanted to see him again after Hickey thrashed him that day.

PO is right: we need mids and a classy defender - or too. Parish or Smith would improve the team immediately.

Are there any more Karl Amons out there?

Liam Henry

 

[Turbocat]

What does everything think our priority is in terms of position?

I think midfield no doubt and to drill down a type that can break the lines.

Then I think pace off half back will be really important but players with good skill..

When I look at types in the VFL we have ... there is not one role I would exclude adding if the club saw that type as the best pick.

Conway, Dempsey, Kneviit, Chlosey, Ricarrdi are all chances. Thats all drafted players are till they start to do it at afl level.

Conway will soon be rucking... he will need a backup of some sort
Kneviit and Chlosey and Clark not playing ..we do have some young mids but obviously we need more
There must be doubt on any tall position. There is no one key position that I am certain we have covered. Neale is a hope and plenty of hopes fall flat

If we keep our R1 ..id say the kid Wilson sounds like the type we add. Stevens would be another inside mid who we have seen in and next to our mids..and he looks as good as anyone ..and is not even full time. Id be happy to add someone like Harry DeMattia. Smaller backman mid type with a whacking kick.. we probably find a tall somewhere. I liked Dawson in the champs playing deep. Same with a ruck. We probably look at a Falcon , we usually do. Hastie is probably the most highly rated.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We really lucked out with Idun.

 

[moond0g]

When I look at types in the VFL we have ... there is not one role I would exclude add if the club saw that type as the best pick.

Conway, Dempsey, Kneviit, Chlosey, Ricarrdi are all chances. Thats all drafted players are till they start to do it at afl level.

Conway will soon be rucking... he will need a backup of some sort
Kneviit and Chlosey and Clark not playing ..we do have some young mids but obvious we need more
There must be doubt on any tall position. There is no one key position that I am certain we have covered. Neale is a hope and plenty of hopes fall flat

If we keep our R1 ..id say the kid Wilson sounds like the type we add. Stevens would be another inside mid who we have seen in and next to our mids..and he looks as good as anyone ..and is not even full time. Id be happy to add someone like Harry DeMattia. Smaller backman mid type with a whacking kicking.. we probably find a tall somewhere. I liked Dawson in the champs playing deep. Same with a ruck. We probably look at a Falcon , we usually do. Hastie is probably the most highly rated.

Ruck is the only one I'd avoid, except for someone very late if you want to take a punt.

There's only really space for 3 rucks on your list. Any more and some of them need to play full time forward or defence in the VFL just to fit them in the side.

I'd expect Stanley to go around again and we pick up a cheap backup in the 25-29 age range that do a job if called on for a few years in place of Ceglar. In a year we'll be better placed to decide if Conway is our long term ruck, or we go after someone via trade.

 

[Kitcat]

So Duncan won more contested possessions in 2023 than 2022, but because your eyes told you he won less, he did win less?

And the stats say he's exactly in the middle for our group, but your eyes say he's at the bottom, so he is at the bottom?

Did it feel like Close kicked more goals than Hawkins? Cause I've got stats on that too.

Duncan is only tenth! Who is ahead of him?
What is his statistic for percentage wins in contested possession situations?
And I will point out that a contested possession is not necessarily a hard ball win.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

We really lucked out with Idun.

In reality he would not of played 20 games so far TBH. We had/have a backline where he wasn't gonna get a game.
Going great guns now and good on him.
He signed upon to be eligible for free agency. Which is good if he wants to head home.

 

[Turbocat]

There’s arrogance and there’s self-confidence. He is the latter. Still rubs people up the wrong way.

True. Sometimes there is only a clutch pencils difference between the two. Maybe just if you like the guy with confidence or dislike the guy with arrogance. ..and maybe thats just taste.

Who likes Rhubarb anyway but people do. I was watching a doco on the transition of Clay to Muhammad Ali. The way he was savage in the way he talked and put down Frazier as a Gorilla and uncle Tom etc, the way he was wrapped up in the Nation of Islam and was against Vietnam ...self confidence arrogance. Likeable. Detestable

Maybe arrogance is the hang over when you you have the confidence you can drink anyone else under the table. Just not enough failure in life to pull up before the "third bottle". Pride comeeth before the fall they say. Maybe if you knew what it was like to hit the dirt the confidence would be more measured.

 

[Mr Meow]

Duncan is only tenth! Who is ahead of him?
What is his statistic for percentage wins in contested possession situations?
And I will point out that a contested possession is not necessarily a hard ball win.

Who was ahead? The stoppage midfielders and ruckmen, as you'd expect. The same has been true Duncan's whole career. Then relative young pups Holmes, Miers and Bowes. Then defensive stalwart Stewart.

He's more of an outside player like Tuohy, Smith, Cameron, Rohan, Close, O'Connor and Stengle. He leads that group. You'd think at least the younger guys would be passing him now on that front.

Duncan lost 25% of his defensive 1v1 contests this season. In 2022 he lost 33.3%. He attended more of these this season but as an outside midfielder this really isn't his primary role anyway. Kolo lost 38% and SDK 32% this season by the way.

On the bolded I agree. But a guy who's been trying to win hard footy one year who then didn't bother the next season, you'd expect a decline, not an increase. Stengle dropping from 5.6 to 4.4 a game is a good example.

 

[Turbocat]

Ruck is the only one I'd avoid, except for someone very late if you want to take a punt.

There's only really space for 3 rucks on your list. Any more and some of them need to play full time forward or defence in the VFL just to fit them in the side.

I'd expect Stanley to go around again and we pick up a cheap backup in the 25-29 age range that do a job if called on for a few years in place of Ceglar. In a year we'll be better placed to decide if Conway is our long term ruck, or we go after someone via trade.

Im happy to be a contrarian with rucks. If I had the ability to draft an 18 year old NicNat for example with our first pick.. id do it no worries. Once we chose to not pick Grundy because we traded in a ruck. As it stands we have one picks and daylight to our next pick. As it is there will be no rucks at our pick that would be available to us taht will be worth us using a top10 on. So late it or rookie is where it will be.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hopefully Ratugolea picks Hawthorn and they're dumb enough to hand over pick 29.

That's not a bad outcome

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

In reality he would not of played 20 games so far TBH. We had/have a backline where he wasn't gonna get a game.
Going great guns now and good on him.
He signed upon to be eligible for free agency. Which is good if he wants to head home.

I'll have to disagree. He'd walk into our backline. He's twice the player Kolodjashnij is for a start.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I'll have to disagree. He'd walk into our backline. He's twice the player Kolodjashnij is for a start.

Not 3 years ago nor 2 years... maybe this year but he wouldn't have had 20 odd games of AFL experience in his first 2-3 years.
That's what i'm trying to explain.
The journey would have been totally different so the destination would have to be as well some would say.

 

[Turbocat]

Not 3 years ago nor 2 years... maybe this year but he wouldn't have had 20 odd games of AFL experience in his first 2-3 years.
That's what i'm trying to explain.
The journey would have been totally different so the destination would have to be as well some would say.

Its a point of focus. How do you get to that stage. Playing. We probably would not have played him..prefering to go with the knowns. Tambling like. You have to be willing to drop of som matures..actually move them..as even just having them as back up will see them played when things go skewif. Bring in mature mids.. and its easy to not select the kids we have. Some times you put years in and it fails sometime you get a great outcome.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

That's not a bad outcome

Only downside is we are making our nemesis a little stronger.
He is an upgrade to Frost. Pick 29 would be swallowed up by McCabe so it would be a win win for the Dorks.
In saying that, Pick 29 would be handy in refurbishing/building the list.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Only downside is we are making our nemesis a little stronger.
He is an upgrade to Frost. Pick 29 would be swallowed up by McCabe so it would be a win win for the Dorks.
In saying that, Pick 29 would be handy in refurbishing/building the list.

Well they delivered us Henry so I'll call it even

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I'll have to disagree. He'd walk into our backline. He's twice the player Kolodjashnij is for a start.

This month he is... Last August/September he was miles behind Kolo as he was playing like an All Star.

 

[moond0g]

Im happy to be a contrarian with rucks. If I had the ability to draft an 18 year old NicNat for example with our first pick.. id do it no worries. Once we chose to not pick Grundy because we traded in a ruck. As it stands we have one picks and daylight to our next pick. As it is there will be no rucks at our pick that would be available to us taht will be worth us using a top10 on. So late it or rookie is where it will be.

Fair enough, let's agree to disagree. I can see the desire to go after someone who we think will be a 10+ year ruck, especially with the problems we've had at times in that area since Ottens retired.

But I just think:
1. you can be a very good side with only a serviceable ruck
2. even the top rucks need 4 years of development to become good players, so you've got to spend more time waiting for a return on investment. e.g., Tim English has just had his breakout year in his 7th season.
3. given point 2, if we decide we do need a top tier ruck, we'd be better trying to get one via trade that can contribute straight away.
4. There's only space for 2 rucks to be getting high minutes in the role (one in the AFL, one in the VFL). So, drafting one now when we're not sure if Conway is up to the level of AFL yet, means one will play half the game pigeon-holed into a forward role in the VFL, which defeats the purpose of drafting them.

TBH, within reason I'd almost be ok with us never using a top 30 pick to draft a ruck

 

[cats_09]

Wonder if either Hawthorn or Port also withdraw their interest:

Esava Ratugolea (Geelong)

“It’s down to Hawthorn, Port Adelaide or staying at Geelong, though I believe the Cats scenario is the least likely.

“I think he’s going to Port or Hawthorn. They’ve both got good deals in front of him.

“Essendon is no longer in the hunt and after doing his hamstring on Saturday night, Ratugolea may have played his 75th and last game for the Cats.”

 

[Turbocat]

Fair enough, let's agree to disagree. I can see the desire to go after someone who we think will be a 10+ year ruck, especially with the problems we've had at times in that area since Ottens retired.

But I just think:
1. you can be a very good side with only a serviceable ruck
2. even the top rucks need 4 years of development to become good players, so you've got to spend more time waiting for a return on investment. e.g., Tim English has just had his breakout year in his 7th season.
3. given point 2, if we decide we do need a top tier ruck, we'd be better trying to get one via trade that can contribute straight away.
4. There's only space for 2 rucks to be getting high minutes in the role (one in the AFL, one in the VFL). So, drafting one now when we're not sure if Conway is up to the level of AFL yet, means one will play half the game pigeon-holed into a forward role in the VFL, which defeats the purpose of drafting them.

TBH, within reason I'd almost be ok with us never using a top 30 pick to draft a ruck

Plenty agree with you ... I simply base an assessment of the talent available. Conway is a pick inside 30.

Id always have at least one listed kid in development. Id not be concerned at all if we eventually lose him because our senior afl side had a top ruck. If we want a cheap back up as well thats more of a backup then im fine with that too. Mostly however. I want at least one or two with a high degree of flexibility and athleticism that can play multiple roles. Its probably why I like the look of players like Archer Reid and Taylor Goad talls that are tall enough to ruck, that are athletic and might not be rucks at afl.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Duncan is still a classy user of the ball but he isn’t winning many hard balls anymore. A receiver and distributor.

Duncan is out of gas.

They'll need to nurse him through the next 12 months as he's got degenerative knee problems. Cannot run both ways and it was obvious over the back half of this season that he just can't keep up with younger pups who burn him for speed. It's a young mans game and the end has come quickly. Still a very good user of the footy and obviously has "smarts" but Geelong are faced with a problem on how to use him (and a few others) moving into next season.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think those desperate for us to draft a ball running midfielder with our first pick are targetting the problem of 2 years ago.

Replacing Danger and Selwood was always going to be a challenge. But we've now got Bruhn, Holmes, Clark, Knevitt and Dempsey who are likely to be mids long term and all look like they'll make it.

If we can get a gun ready made mid (Parish or Smith) for next year great. And if the best player available at our pick happens to be a mid that's fine. But we don't need to target that area when we look well stocked for 3 years time already.

Key position players look a much bigger need. SDK and Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

27

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

are the only 2 I'm convinced about long term. I guess Olly Henry too but he's not really a key position size (arguably nor is Jack).