harness

[mattys123]

Is there a market up some where?

Only market I could find so far was on the TAB's fixed odds (Victab, I assume NSW tab has it too).

http://www.tab.com.au/Racing/Bettin...0:00:00&RaceNumber=FHNMNMIRAWI&FORacingCode=H

Franco Jamar too short there, I'm hoping he blows out to backable each way odds, still a chance of powering home if they go too hard up front.

 

[The_Doctor]

Yeah if SU had have drawn to sit in the death i would be giving horses like ITMQ and others who get back a better chance but im not sure how much pressure there will be anymore

 

[The_Doctor]

Geez didnt expect to see ITMQ favorite. He is still a chance of course but he shouldnt be the favorite over the mile imo. The best value in that market is SU and Mr FG to win and Lisagain to place

 

[GeeUUess]

Doctor; why don't you like ITMQ at the mile?
He is the fastest horse in the land and a mile is his go (when his plane lands in Sydney he will take over Holy Camp Boys status as the fastest in Sydney do you agree Danger Mouse?).
Not that they are going to sit up with Smoken Up drawn to lead but if ITMQ got the oppurtunity he would break 26 down the Menangle straight.
He will sit and sprint and judging by Smoken Ups loss to Terror To Love I think ITMQ will blitz these.

The travesty with the Miracle Mile is why there are 8 runners + 2 emergencies. Should be 6 runners only this year. ITMQ, Smoken Up, Jamar, Raglan, Feelgood and Terror To Love. The other 4 are a blight on the race.

 

[The_Doctor]

He can still win, no doubt, im not denying that but there is also no doubt he is a better horse over the longer distances. The mile most definitely is not his go.

Also if there are only 6 runners you risk the race being run too slow in the middle stages and giving the horses off the pace no chance of running down the leaders

 

[GeeUUess]

He can still win, no doubt, im not denying that but there is also no doubt he is a better horse over the longer distances. The mile most definitely is not his go.

Also if there are only 6 runners you risk the race being run too slow in the middle stages and giving the horses off the pace no chance of running down the leaders

The mile is right up his ally. Doesn't have to travel as far and burn the legs as much as before sprinting hard. Of course that depends on how the race is run because over 2400m if the splits were 60, 30, 30, 30 he could sprint home hard but over 1600m if the splits were 27, 28, 28 obviously that trademark flying late sprint will be subdued somewhat. But with all things being even a mile is his pet event.

Lisagain is not going to inject pace into the race and after his run in the Cordina it is pretty damn unlikely Karloo Mick will either. From 2 horses back it would be much easier for those behind to run down the leader but from 3 horses back with 2 roadblocks it will in fact be harder...

 

[The_Doctor]

Well apparently you and his trainer disagree on what his pet distance is. I think ill take the word of Gary Hall

 

[GeeUUess]

Well apparently you and his trainer disagree on what his pet distance is. I think ill take the word of Gary Hall

So that's the only reason you got...

If the trainer said you should jump off a cliff would you.....

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

If the trainer said you should jump off a cliff would you.....

Depends what it was paying.

 

[The_Doctor]

So that's the only reason you got...

If the trainer said you should jump off a cliff would you.....

Look im not looking for an argument but in my opinion he clearly races better over longer distances and seeings as Gary Hall Snr shares the same opinion as me then thats good enough for me. You cannot seriously be suggesting you know the horse better than him.

Also your statement "If the trainer said you should jump off a cliff would you....."

That is a terrible analogy

 

[The_Doctor]

Im Themightyquinn has raced 6 times over a distance of less than 2000m for 1 win

and out of those 6 races he started odds on favorite in 5 of them so its not as if he was out of form going into those races

 

[nick1408]

I'm going to the trots in a couple of weeks but have no idea how to pick a winner. What should I look for in the form? Any advice would be great

 

[prodigalson]

Agree with previous posts IMQ struggles over the short trip. His best feature and what wins him races is his last halfs and last quarters, the horse is a machine and can sprint sharply. That said, having to sit outside Smoken up i dont like his chance as Lance will have the speed on from the word go and wont allow Quinn to sprint off the speed thats on. The Quins day will come in his home state in March.

In my opinion, Smoken up leads with Quinn the death and Feelgood the 1-1. Nothing will get up 3 wide as they will crucify themself with smoken up calling the shots from pole. As soon as they hit the straigh Quin hits the great wall of china and bang Feelgood sprints over the top of them. Game over.

Feelgood is my tip, he proved saturday night he still has what it takes with a huge run and was barely hit with the leather, $7.....juicey.

 

[GeeUUess]

If you just relied on taking trainers on their word all the time then you'd probably back over half the horses in the race and still miss the winner on occasions. So he's failed 5 times over the mile? He's failed a hell of a lot more times over 2500m.

Prodigalson: I don't like Mr Feelgood; the fact Raglan ran him down at Newcastle is a bit daunting. From gate 5 he very well could get the 1-1 but I have Karloo Mick pencilled in on for that spot.
And also...you acknowledge quite rightly that IMTQ best asset is his final quarters and halves.....over longer distances with fatigue blistering sprints become not so blistering...how then is 2500m a better distance than 1600 for him?

 

[Saggynuts]

I like smoking up, hard to see him being beaten the thing that worries me is L.Mc sticking it up Justice with one of his two in the race if he does there going to run some unreal time.

 

[The_Doctor]

If you just relied on taking trainers on their word all the time then you'd probably back over half the horses in the race and still miss the winner on occasions. So he's failed 5 times over the mile? He's failed a hell of a lot more times over 2500m.

Prodigalson: I don't like Mr Feelgood; the fact Raglan ran him down at Newcastle is a bit daunting. From gate 5 he very well could get the 1-1 but I have Karloo Mick pencilled in on for that spot.
And also...you acknowledge quite rightly that IMTQ best asset is his final quarters and halves.....over longer distances with fatigue blistering sprints become not so blistering...how then is 2500m a better distance than 1600 for him?

Yes he has failed 5 out of 6 times over the mile and started odds on favorite in five of them, that is not a good strike rate for what you consider his pet distance Also Gary Hall is not talking him up to win like you suggested he is doing the opposite and says he is not suited over the mile. He probably does run a faster last section over the mile as he should, trouble is the ones in front of him are running faster too making it harder for him to catch them

 

[The_Doctor]

Agree with previous posts IMQ struggles over the short trip. His best feature and what wins him races is his last halfs and last quarters, the horse is a machine and can sprint sharply. That said, having to sit outside Smoken up i dont like his chance as Lance will have the speed on from the word go and wont allow Quinn to sprint off the speed thats on. The Quins day will come in his home state in March.

In my opinion, Smoken up leads with Quinn the death and Feelgood the 1-1. Nothing will get up 3 wide as they will crucify themself with smoken up calling the shots from pole. As soon as they hit the straigh Quin hits the great wall of china and bang Feelgood sprints over the top of them. Game over.

Feelgood is my tip, he proved saturday night he still has what it takes with a huge run and was barely hit with the leather, $7.....juicey.

I would be shocked if ITMQ sat in the death. Hall will take cover on him and try to use his sprint at the end. Mr Feelgood and Terror to Love will be the ones going hard from out wide early i think. Mr FG could still get the one by one but it wont be on the back of quinny i wouldnt think

 

[The Gospel]

I think that Smoken up will lead and if he runs anywhere close this best (ie 148.5)WILL WIN. cannot see any other horse going past him if they run that time. Is there any chance that Karloo Mick will be in the death and quinn 1 by 1, cause as good as quinn is, no horse can sit in the death and win the mile now its at Menangle.

 

[GeeUUess]

Yes he has failed 5 out of 6 times over the mile and started odds on favorite in five of them, that is not a good strike rate for what you consider his pet distance Also Gary Hall is not talking him up to win like you suggested he is doing the opposite and says he is not suited over the mile. He probably does run a faster last section over the mile as he should, trouble is the ones in front of him are running faster too making it harder for him to catch them

Let's say over 1600m in quarters of 30, 30, 30 the average horse gets home in 27. IMTQ would get home in 26.
Let's say over 2400m in time of 60, 30, 30, 30 the average horse gets home in 28. IMTQ also gets home in 28.

IMTQs best asset is his sprint; not some marvel grinding spirit of Smoken Up or Blacks A Fake. A devastating sprint is lost when fatigued. Generally speaking; fatigue will build and make a horse lose its devastating sprint over 2400m rather than 1600m.
Therefore IMTQ is better suited at a mile.

If you go have a look through his record of being beaten at 1600m it was when he was too weak. It is because he was used too early. In races close by to his defeats at the mile he actually ran quicker final 1600metres in 2400m races than what he did over 1600m races. Why? Because in the mile race the quarters read 29,29,28,28 and he was too weak to run on but in the longer distance races he could find a comfortable speed of 32,30, 29 which didnt really drain him. But on the grand circuit; and especially with Smoken Up around; the 2400m races are run 30, 29, 29 which means his sprint is subdued somewhat; although now he isn't as weak as a couple years ago. That is why he has lost 1600m races in 1.55 yet could win 2100 race in 1.56 and 2500 races in 1.58.

The only race you could point to which says he is a stayer would be the 2009 Fremantle Cup. Otherwise his career says sprinter. It's been luck/Perth racing/error which has seen him falter at the mile compared to longer distance racing. But now he is on the grand circuit the mile is his pet event.

 

[The_Doctor]

Let's say over 1600m in quarters of 30, 30, 30 the average horse gets home in 27. IMTQ would get home in 26.
Let's say over 2400m in time of 60, 30, 30, 30 the average horse gets home in 28. IMTQ also gets home in 28.

IMTQs best asset is his sprint; not some marvel grinding spirit of Smoken Up or Blacks A Fake. A devastating sprint is lost when fatigued. Generally speaking; fatigue will build and make a horse lose its devastating sprint over 2400m rather than 1600m.
Therefore IMTQ is better suited at a mile.

If you go have a look through his record of being beaten at 1600m it was when he was too weak. It is because he was used too early. In races close by to his defeats at the mile he actually ran quicker final 1600metres in 2400m races than what he did over 1600m races. Why? Because in the mile race the quarters read 29,29,28,28 and he was too weak to run on but in the longer distance races he could find a comfortable speed of 32,30, 29 which didnt really drain him. But on the grand circuit; and especially with Smoken Up around; the 2400m races are run 30, 29, 29 which means his sprint is subdued somewhat; although now he isn't as weak as a couple years ago. That is why he has lost 1600m races in 1.55 yet could win 2100 race in 1.56 and 2500 races in 1.58.

The only race you could point to which says he is a stayer would be the 2009 Fremantle Cup. Otherwise his career says sprinter. It's been luck/Perth racing/error which has seen him falter at the mile compared to longer distance racing. But now he is on the grand circuit the mile is his pet event.

No, you are wrong. End of story. Im done arguing this now

 

[the good maggot]

I think that Smoken up will lead and if he runs anywhere close this best (ie 148.5)WILL WIN. cannot see any other horse going past him if they run that time. Is there any chance that Karloo Mick will be in the death and quinn 1 by 1, cause as good as quinn is, no horse can sit in the death and win the mile now its at Menangle.

Last year's winner sat in the death.

 

[GeeUUess]

Last year's winner sat in the death.

This. Plus Menangle death is easier than Harold Park death seat.

 

[prodigalson]

If you just relied on taking trainers on their word all the time then you'd probably back over half the horses in the race and still miss the winner on occasions. So he's failed 5 times over the mile? He's failed a hell of a lot more times over 2500m.

Prodigalson: I don't like Mr Feelgood; the fact Raglan ran him down at Newcastle is a bit daunting. From gate 5 he very well could get the 1-1 but I have Karloo Mick pencilled in on for that spot.
And also...you acknowledge quite rightly that IMTQ best asset is his final quarters and halves.....over longer distances with fatigue blistering sprints become not so blistering...how then is 2500m a better distance than 1600 for him?

Because over 2500m quarters are ran alot slower than they are over 1600m so Quinn can sprint off the slow speed and cant sprint off the fast speed you get in a 1609 race. You wont see him sprint sharply off a smoken up lead first half belted out at 53 seconds.

Raglan is a good horse hence his win the Newcastle mile, out three wide running home in a 27.6 last quarter but yes i had doubts over feelgood until seeing him beat the NZ cup winner easily. His one at odd for f4's/tri's.

I can see Karloo Mick getting the 1-1 or stuck 3 wide giving feelgood cover. Whatever his position he is not in my top 5.

 

[GeeUUess]

Because over 2500m quarters are ran alot slower than they are over 1600m so Quinn can sprint off the slow speed and cant sprint off the fast speed you get in a 1609 race. You wont see him sprint sharply off a smoken up lead first half belted out at 53 seconds.

Raglan is a good horse hence his win the Newcastle mile, out three wide running home in a 27.6 last quarter but yes i had doubts over feelgood until seeing him beat the NZ cup winner easily. His one at odd for f4's/tri's.

I can see Karloo Mick getting the 1-1 or stuck 3 wide giving feelgood cover. Whatever his position he is not in my top 5.

First half 53 seconds I want what your smoking!
In grand circuit racing there is no such thing as slow speed; they might go the first half 2 seconds slower than a 1600m race but thats because they have already ran an extra 500-1000m....
How on earth is Karloo Mick going to get stuck three wide....Greg Bennett would have to have a minor stroke; lose his capacity to properly control his limbs and thus pull the right rein instead of the left rein. He's drawn barrier 4 FFS not 14.

 

[The_Doctor]

First half 53 seconds I want what your smoking!
In grand circuit racing there is no such thing as slow speed; they might go the first half 2 seconds slower than a 1600m race but thats because they have already ran an extra 500-1000m....
How on earth is Karloo Mick going to get stuck three wide....Greg Bennett would have to have a minor stroke; lose his capacity to properly control his limbs and thus pull the right rein instead of the left rein. He's drawn barrier 4 FFS not 14.

A first half of 53 and change is about right i reckon. What time are you expecting?