Hawthorns future next 5 years

[MrPremiership]

Going by the latest artcle on Burgoyne he may well have two or three years left in him. Since 2012 our conditioning staff have been superb.

I'd say Burgoyne's mind will make him retire before his body.

Sure he loves his footy, but its a tough gig at times.

 

[ACTion Hawks]

I am expecting we will fall (probably out of the 8) at some point, as we have some legendary players who I cannot see being replaced. I think the article is well written and most of it I tend to agree with.

The 80s team was amazing in that the team in 83 was vastly different from the team in 91 (as you would expect) AND it did not fall inbetween. The transition of Dunstall/Platten into that team was about as seamless as you get. Now it is more difficult in one way (as it is hard to draft a player of the quality of Platten with the picks we are getting), although we can access some through free agency and intelligent trading.

When we lose Hodge/Mitchell/Burgers/Gibbo, we will almost definitely dip. They are all still integral players to our team and its style, and I am happy about this. Although it may mean a dip in the next few years, I want to cash in as much as I can now. I would rather be in realistic contention for a premiership or two more now and face five years outside the eight, rather than "manage" a fall so that the dip is not so great (and so not be in contention. .

We have been blessed to live through an amazing period (for me I have been doubly blesses as I fully enjoyed the 80s too). I am not saying I will enjoy when we are down the ladder a bit, but as our great saying says, I am willing to pay that price.

Let's get that Fourthorn!!!

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Hi guys,

Great discussion, thanks for taking the time to read and think. I enjoyed reading your thoughts.

I think most of you have nailed the tldr version: yes, Hodge, Mitchell et al are set to leave the side over the next three years, but that middle group of players are pretty damn good. So while there's a balancing act to be had, there's very little prospect of a Brisbane-like decline in the years ahead.

That's the conclusion most of you got to; for those who didn't I'd suggest reading the whole article not just the firsr few pars, which perhaps give the impression that Hawthorn are cooked after this season.

Also just a quick plug. I write something like this once a week on Wednesdays, and my aim is to give discerning footy fans something more than 400 word hot takes to chew on. If you like what you read, head over to my back catalogue at www.theroar.com.au/author/ryanbuckland7

Thanks again!

It was a good researched article, much better than the dribble you get in the mainstream media.

One question.
The most surprising thing was the lack of games experience that Hawks had compared to Brisbane outside of the top 19 players you looked at. 299 games experience are spread over the remaining players on the Hawthorn list? Initially sounds very low as players like Spangher, Ceglar, Whitecross, Langford, Hartung etc didn't play in the GF. Also I think it more shows how remarkably lucky the Hawks were to get their best 22 on the park for the GF.

It would only take 1-2 200-300 game players missing the 2004 GF to skew the statistics so far into Brisbanes favour here as they had 600 odd games experience on the remaining of their list. I can't remember back that far but were there any players like that still on Brisbanes list that didn't play the 2004 GF?

My point is that it is easy to simply look at one game and apply this test. I think the most damning thing for Brisbane compared to Hawthorn (and why the fall was perhaps imminent) was the lack of experience (in terms of games) in the players ranked 19-22.

 

[Gralin]

It was a good researched article, much better than the dribble you get in the mainstream media.

One question.
The most surprising thing was the lack of games experience that Hawks had compared to Brisbane outside of the top 19 players you looked at. 299 games experience are spread over the remaining players on the Hawthorn list? Initially sounds very low as players like Spangher, Ceglar, Whitecross, Langford, Hartung etc didn't play in the GF. Also I think it more shows how remarkably lucky the Hawks were to get their best 22 on the park for the GF.

It would only take 1-2 200-300 game players missing the 2004 GF to skew the statistics so far into Brisbanes favour here as they had 600 odd games experience on the remaining of their list. I can't remember back that far but were there any players like that still on Brisbanes list that didn't play the 2004 GF?

My point is that it is easy to simply look at one game and apply this test. I think the most damning thing for Brisbane compared to Hawthorn (and why the fall was perhaps imminent) was the lack of experience (in terms of games) in the players ranked 19-22.

299 is correct and it includes the games Fitz has played at Melbourne

 

[Gunstall555]

I think the hawks will go like this:

2016 Team:
Stratton Frawley Gibson
Burgoyne Spangher Birchall

Hill Mitchell Smith

Rioli Shoenmakers Bruest
Gunston Roughead Puopolo

McEvoy Hodge Lewis

Shiels, Hartung, Ceglar and Duyrea

At the end of 2016- Out: Burgoyne, Gibson and Spangher. In: Langford, Heatherly or Brand and Howe

2017 Team:
Stratton Frawley Duyrea
Howe Heatherly or Brand Birchall

Hill Mitchell Smith

Rioli Shoenmakers Bruest
Gunston Roughead Puopolo

Ceglar Hodge Lewis

Shiels, Hartung, McEvoy and Langford

At the end of 2017- Change of Captaincy: Lewis, Rough or Shiels Out: Hodge, Mitchell In: Litherland, O'Rouke

2018 Team:
Stratton Frawley Duyrea
Litherland Heatherly or Brand Birchall

Hill Howe Smith

Rioli Shoenmakers Bruest
Gunston Roughead Puopolo

Ceglar Shiels Lewis

O'Rouke, Hartung, McEvoy and Langford

At the End of 2018- Out: Lewis, Puopolo, Rough* (depending on injuries and how he ages) Ins: Burton, Lovell and Hardwick* Captain: Shiels taken from lewis or rough if he doesn't get it in 2018.

2019 Team:
Stratton Frawley Duyrea
Litherland Heatherly or Brand Birchall (30)

Hill Howe Smith (30)

Rioli (29) Shoenmakers Bruest
Burton Gunston Hardwick* or Rough* (31 turning 32) (if plays on)

Ceglar Shiels Langford

O'Rouke, Hartung, McEvoy (29) and Lovell

May not be 100% perfect, but this is how i see us going. Looking at the team I'm quietly confident that it could keep us in the top 8.

I think Burgoyne will be the only one to go after this year.
For 2017 maybe Gibson or Hodge, probably not both
For 2018 defiantly Gibson & Hodge & maybe Mitchell.

For this year, Howe will play a hell of a lot of football.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

299 is correct and it includes the games Fitz has played at Melbourne
View attachment 212691

Thanks mate.

So the question is did Brisbane have the same quality outside their 22 or were they players that were going to retire as well.

Langford 33
Ceglar 31
Hartung 27
Litherland 19
O'Rourke 11

The first 3 in particular give me confidence that those players will be able to step up when Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne retire. They could all potentially get to 50 games this year.

 

[Blaze Storm]

I'm not sure the statistics being quoted are meaningful. The author hasn't provided anything to compare them to, vis a vis age profiles/ratios of previous winners.

Plus, Hawthorn has a policy of blooding new players thoroughly in the twos rather than throwing them into the firsts for a bit of random experience. Our pattern has been to educate them well in the basics so they fit right into our game plan when they're selected. Think Duryea, Litherland, Howe, etc..

His comparison of experience in non-premiership players sort of works against his point, as he's listed comparisons for two other teams (Sydney and West coast) that didn't go on to win any further premierships either...

 

[Pessimistic]

Going by the latest artcle on Burgoyne he may well have two or three years left in him. Since 2012 our conditioning staff have been superb.

So, heading for tuck like greatness?

 

[kazzooka]

His comparison of experience in non-premiership players sort of works against his point, as he's listed comparisons for two other teams (Sydney and West coast) that didn't go on to win any further premierships either...

it also seems to imply that the premiership players are somehow finished. If you look at Hill, Gunston, McEvoy, Bruest, Cyril, Smith, Stratton, Frawley, Shiels, Shoenmakers, Duryea they all have heaps of footy left in them. Then you look at Birchall, Roughead, Lewis, Poppy with plenty left in the tank. The only players left that are on their last legs are Hodge, Burgoyne, Mitchell and Gibson and I can seriously see Mitchell playing many more years.

He seems to think that cause our most experienced players played in the grand final and our least experienced didn't that we somehow are going to loose all those players overnight. A few years Sewell and Guerra went without a hiccup, we lost buddy without issue as well.

We are yet to discover our next super star mid though. Sheils is a very good solid mid but he isn't a play maker. I thought Jed would be the one but now he's gone. Langers has shown signs, and O'rourke has all the skills to do it. But i think we need to either have some absolute draft steal, or do like we did to get gunston by taking a guy with 2 years experience that will still be cheap but we know will be a star.

 

[Gralin]

it also seems to imply that the premiership players are somehow finished. If you look at Hill, Gunston, McEvoy, Bruest, Cyril, Smith, Stratton, Frawley, Shiels, Shoenmakers, Duryea they all have heaps of footy left in them. Then you look at Birchall, Roughead, Lewis, Poppy with plenty left in the tank. The only players left that are on their last legs are Hodge, Burgoyne, Mitchell and Gibson and I can seriously see Mitchell playing many more years.

He seems to think that cause our most experienced players played in the grand final and our least experienced didn't that we somehow are going to loose all those players overnight. A few years Sewell and Guerra went without a hiccup, we lost buddy without issue as well.

We are yet to discover our next super star mid though. Sheils is a very good solid mid but he isn't a play maker. I thought Jed would be the one but now he's gone. Langers has shown signs, and O'rourke has all the skills to do it. But i think we need to either have some absolute draft steal, or do like we did to get gunston by taking a guy with 2 years experience that will still be cheap but we know will be a star.

Our absolute class and leaders at the moment are Gibbo, Burgers, Hodge, Mitch, Rough, and Lewis from the older end.

Its not just what they are as players but as leaders and organizers on the field, tactics, in game coaching etc

We have some players like Stratts, Smith, Gunners, Breust, Sheils and Frawley that are all A grade players and in some cases emerging leaders, theyve all stood up in finals but the argument that we don't really know what will happen when the top tier retire is true, nobody does.

The hope is that the club can control the attrition, that the planning they have put in place will pay off and that the second tier of leaders will turn out to be just as good as those they are replacing.

The reality is that the guys that will be retiring over the next couple of years are all very special players, there will have to be some sort of drop off even if its only temporary, if Clarko and co can spread those little drop offs out enough and we get the increased output we hope for from some of those younger players we should be able to stay there abouts, whether we can keep competing in GFs though who knows.

It is great though that the main hope for our rivals after 4 straight grand finals and 3 straight victories is that people will retire or slow down because otherwise they don't know they will catch us

 

[RyanBuckland]

it also seems to imply that the premiership players are somehow finished. If you look at Hill, Gunston, McEvoy, Bruest, Cyril, Smith, Stratton, Frawley, Shiels, Shoenmakers, Duryea they all have heaps of footy left in them. Then you look at Birchall, Roughead, Lewis, Poppy with plenty left in the tank. The only players left that are on their last legs are Hodge, Burgoyne, Mitchell and Gibson and I can seriously see Mitchell playing many more years.

He seems to think that cause our most experienced players played in the grand final and our least experienced didn't that we somehow are going to loose all those players overnight. A few years Sewell and Guerra went without a hiccup, we lost buddy without issue as well.

We are yet to discover our next super star mid though. Sheils is a very good solid mid but he isn't a play maker. I thought Jed would be the one but now he's gone. Langers has shown signs, and O'rourke has all the skills to do it. But i think we need to either have some absolute draft steal, or do like we did to get gunston by taking a guy with 2 years experience that will still be cheap but we know will be a star.

No that's not what I think at all. As I've said a few times here, Hawthorn's only major concern is giving its next tier of players more time in key roles. Whether that happens this year, or next, it has to happen, and that could bring with it a period of adjustment. That period of adjustment, given the quality of the players in the second tier, would be incredibly short and incredibly shallow, such is the way Hawthorn have managed their list.

The comment above sort of nails it.

 

[Randy Campbell]

I think Clarko and the development of the game plan is the great unknown in predicting the next five years.

We talk about the need of replacing the ageing stars and the role they play with the same type of player and if we can't find someone of the same quality we drop off.
What if the changes in game plan changes the role required.
Do we need to replace the role Luke Hodge played in the 2008 Grand Final or the role he played in the 2015 GF.
Or the role Buddy played in 2008 or the role he played in 2013.

I don't think we will copy the same game plan for the next five years, so why do we need to copy the same type of players that we had 5 years ago.

 

[flinchfree]

I think Clarko and the development of the game plan is the great unknown in predicting the next five years.

We talk about the need of replacing the ageing stars and the role they play with the same type of player and if we can't find someone of the same quality we drop off.
What if the changes in game plan changes the role required.
Do we need to replace the role Luke Hodge played in the 2008 Grand Final or the role he played in the 2015 GF.
Or the role Buddy played in 2008 or the role he played in 2013.

I don't think we will copy the same game plan for the next five years, so why do we need to copy the same type of players that we had 5 years ago.

Agree, but regardless of the type of player - they will need to be elite in ability if they are to carry out any new or modified game plan in a way that overcomes all the other teams, their own elite players, and their also evolved game plans.
Talent wins out. Even dopey game plans like the defensive crap of the Swans was executed by very talented individual players who bought in completely to the requirements of their modestly inventive coach.

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

...The hope is that the club can control the attrition, that the planning they have put in place will pay off and that the second tier of leaders will turn out to be just as good as those they are replacing....

Lethal has said a few times that they knew they were screwing up the list but sacrificed all to win flags. They saw the cliff and charged at it. Back in 2013 Hodgey started spruiking that we would be around for a while. The mindset of the two clubs is completely different. Not saying we still wont fall off the cliff but the game has changed. Out and out stars are not as critical. Freo, WC and Swannies are not littered with AAs.

 

[kazzooka]

Lethal has said a few times that they knew they were screwing up the list but sacrificed all to win flags. They saw the cliff and charged at it. Back in 2013 Hodgey started spruiking that we would be around for a while. The mindset of the two clubs is completely different. Not saying we still wont fall off the cliff but the game has changed. Out and out stars are not as critical. Freo, WC and Swannies are not littered with AAs.

People thought 2012 was our last chance with this group and doubted we could get up for 2013. I still think that 2012 was our best home and away season under Clarko but we've since focused more on finishing top 4 (not desperate for top) and being in good shape for finals. We have been very fortunate that we have had most of our best 22 available and well conditioned for finals the last 3 years.

 

[PhatHQ]

I think Clarko and the development of the game plan is the great unknown in predicting the next five years.

We talk about the need of replacing the ageing stars and the role they play with the same type of player and if we can't find someone of the same quality we drop off.
What if the changes in game plan changes the role required.
Do we need to replace the role Luke Hodge played in the 2008 Grand Final or the role he played in the 2015 GF.
Or the role Buddy played in 2008 or the role he played in 2013.

I don't think we will copy the same game plan for the next five years, so why do we need to copy the same type of players that we had 5 years ago.

Yet with the retirement of talent & a lack of "first rd talent" ready to step straight in there will be a dilution of talent because of the retirements, bringing us back to the pack.
No doubt there is A grade talent to come to the fore, can it be AA? Anyone's guess.
Special players don't grow on trees & identifying them can be just as tough.
I would expect,as has been done in the past, players will be brought to the club to bridge the gap & hope that the Burtons, Lovells & Howes become AA & blokes like Langford, O'Rourke & Woodward can get close to B-A grade in a short window.
IMO 1 AA gun is required via trade or FA to maintain the high level of talent to make the bridging of the loss of Hodge, Mitchell ect easier.
Our middle tier players are good but not good enough to cover in the short term.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

It took the Cats one off-season to go from being bottom 8 to Premiership contender.

Article is fair but means little...

 

[Pessimistic]

Of the four over 30 guys, if there was just one of them, wed think they could last as long as possible without being pushed
Itsonly that theres four of them that its an issue, and the reson theres four of them is they are so damn good

Plus having guys around desperate to go one last time is as much motivation as youngsters wanting to win their first

 

[Blaze Storm]

People thought 2012 was our last chance with this group and doubted we could get up for 2013. I still think that 2012 was our best home and away season under Clarko but we've since focused more on finishing top 4 (not desperate for top) and being in good shape for finals. We have been very fortunate that we have had most of our best 22 available and well conditioned for finals the last 3 years.

People keep telling us that we're going to go through a "low point/rebuild" before getting back to our best.

Maybe we're going through that right now

 

[TyHawk]

I'd suggest you have a deeper read of the article; yours is the conclusion that I come to.

Also, I only tend to look back to the start of the century with these things - maybe the 90s when required. Far too much has changed between the 1960s and 2010s to draw any parallels.

People keep telling us that we're going to go through a "low point/rebuild" before getting back to our best.

Maybe we're going through that right now

Maybe 2015 was our dip year! 7 losses and only three of them I would call legit as in the Hawks definitely didn't have the mental application or just made stupid mistakes early and Late in Games that were uncharacteristic. We are good enough to give All teams a right royal rogering if we played at our best all season!

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Lethal has said a few times that they knew they were screwing up the list but sacrificed all to win flags. They saw the cliff and charged at it. Back in 2013 Hodgey started spruiking that we would be around for a while. The mindset of the two clubs is completely different. Not saying we still wont fall off the cliff but the game has changed. Out and out stars are not as critical. Freo, WC and Swannies are not littered with AAs.

He never said this in 01-04 period though did he.

At the end of the day the results will determine how history is written, this is never more true than in the AFL where revisionist history reaches epic proportions.

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Maybe 2015 was our dip year! 7 losses and only three of them I would call legit as in the Hawks definitely didn't have the mental application or just made stupid mistakes early and Late in Games that were uncharacteristic. We are good enough to give All teams a right royal rogering if we played at our best all season!

This. I feel (wish/hope) the same. We were so unbelievably good in the middle of the year... tripped.. then came home with a wet sail.

We are better than that.

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

He never said this in 01-04 period though did he.....

Not to me.

Apparently he discussed it at board level and they agreed on the Flag Now Strategy.

 

[MistyAvalon]

the solution is to simply kick goals...yes?

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

the solution is to simply kick goals...yes?

Shut up Ross Lyon