Prediction How Long Will JENKINS Remain Dropped?

[hey shorty]

I watched the first 3/4s of the SANFL game, JJ was ok but didn’t scream pick me, he was on a kid after McKenzie got injured.

Disagree, he was good all day.

Stengle had a better first half though, if we are talking about forward inclusions.

 

[ad victoriam]

"why JJ was Dropped Not enough goals"

Walker goals Round 1-4: 0,1,1,1
Jenkins goals Round 1-4: 0,2,1,1
Lynch goals Round 1-4: 0,1,2,0

So if Jenkins was dropped for not kicking enough goals, why was he dropped before Walker and Lynch? He outscored both of them.
"goals matter"

Walker goals Round 5-9: 3,4,1,2,3
Lynch goals Round 5-9: 1,1,0,3,1
Himmelberg goals Round 5-9: 1,1,1,1,1

Since JJ has left the team, we have seen a spike in performance from Walker and Lynch (see below with almost identical F50 entries), with Himmelberg achieving the same average as Jenkins of 1 goal per game.


I'll give you a hint: It's not all about goals.

"we were not getting the ball into the forward 50"

Inside 50s with Jenkins
Round 1 - 58
Round 2 - 52
Round 3 - 53
Round 4 - 36

Inside 50s without Jenkins
Round 5 - 59
Round 6 - 52
Round 7 - 50
Round 8 - 62
Round 9 - 56

Yes, we were.

No matter how you spin or look at it, we are a better team without Jenkins.
Himmelberg is offering as much on the scoreboard as Jenkins was in the first four rounds.
Himmelberg is younger, hungrier, has a bigger upside and has a longer future at the club.

Forget 2017 where we were a free scoring team with Jenkins a beneficiary.
Forget 2018 where Jenkins had a decent year and did well in the B&F thanks to consistency and not being injured.

This is 2019, and 2017/18 counts for a grand total of zero.

2019-22 however, they count for quite a lot.

Nice Figures, Still have not proven that JJ was dropped due to lack of Goals, and you have not shown his complete misses and drop shorts.
I will give you "we were not getting the ball into the forward 50" comment as I should have mention decent ball into the forward 50.
But Forwards need to kick goals, and there was talk about Dropping Walker and Lynch before JJ.
But Walker and Lynch we given time in the AFL to improve JJ was Dropped. until he found some form.

But your a stats man,
Have a look at the conversion rate of scores from inside 50
In our first 4 rd we kicked 37.55 from 199 inside 50 add to that I believe close to 10 complete misses or short.
In our next 4 rds we kicked 53.37 from 221 inside 50 and not as many misses short
not a great Great conversion rate. Turn the goals to Points around in the first 4 games and we win 3 of them. So Goals win games. and Forwards need to kick Gaols. not Points.
What about these stats and we are talking about a totally out of form JJ to a Young gun.
Rd 1-4 JJ- 20xMK, 5xCM, 6xM50, ,2xGA, 21xHO, 50xDI, 224xMG
Rd 5-8 Himmelberg - 17xMK, 3xCM, 5xM50, 0xGA HO 26, 46xDI, 166MG
But Stats do not tell the full story as we all know. They will tell you we improve the contested possessions, we improve in our defensive pressure and run from D50, that we have improved on our conversion, but not how this happens.
They don't tell you who taking the key defender or who going up against the better ruck. how many taps are nullified,
They will not tell you that Greenwood and CEY played an important part in improving the delivery into the forward 50 they will not tell you that winning the contested possession allow us quicker ball movement.

And yes 2019 and 2020 is more important. you should always play your best team, and a JJ inform is better than Himmelberg. And is less likely to lose our momentum in the middle when he rucks.
Rather use the Geelong approach play the kids if the earn there spots and keep them, rather than the Carlton or Gold Coast approach play the kids no matter what.

 

[ad victoriam]

I watched the first 3/4s of the SANFL game, JJ was ok but didn’t scream pick me, he was on a kid after McKenzie got injured.

JJ was best on Ground, did you miss his goal assists or clean taps, yes his defender was smaller but JJ lead him to the ball all day and turned him inside out, he showed he had his spark and leg speed back ran all day. But more importantly, he started to take the longer 50m shots and make the distance even against a tough breeze. something he has lacked all year. If that was not a pick me game then I don't know what you would class one as.
As a Bonus when he was in the Ruck he was winning

 

[Betts are off]

I’ll never knock a guy or try after having a good game in the 2’s, good on him, he played well, not gonna deny it.

But I said from the start, when it comes to him vs Berg, my policy is when Berg plays a month of poor footy, then drop him.

It’s the same Length of time we gave JJ to pull his finger out, so it’s only fair to give it too the young buck as well!

I don’t think it will go down that way, but if I were picking the team, that’s how I would see it

 

[marty36]

I’ll never knock a guy or try after having a good game in the 2’s, good on him, he played well, not gonna deny it.

But I said from the start, when it comes to him vs Berg, my policy is when Berg plays a month of poor footy, then drop him.

It’s the same Length of time we gave JJ to pull his finger out, so it’s only fair to give it too the young buck as well!

I don’t think it will go down that way, but if I were picking the team, that’s how I would see it

Fair call but then it needs to apply to the whole team

Lets be honest Tex has played 2 out of 9 betts 3 out of 9

There can be no hypocritical calls, like a lot on this board make

 

[Betts are off]

Fair call but then it needs to apply to the whole team

Lets be honest Tex has played 2 out of 9 betts 3 out of 9

There can be no hypocritical calls, like a lot on this board make

I don’t see it that way with Tex, but Betts I agree could use a rest!

 

[Freshj]

Fair call but then it needs to apply to the whole team

Lets be honest Tex has played 2 out of 9 betts 3 out of 9

There can be no hypocritical calls, like a lot on this board make

For me, I'm happy to back a guy in if it's clear he's having a red hot crack. If after a month he needs a spell, that's fair. Jenkins was in cruise and non competitive. Tex is working his ass off.

 

[ad victoriam]

I’ll never knock a guy or try after having a good game in the 2’s, good on him, he played well, not gonna deny it.

But I said from the start, when it comes to him vs Berg, my policy is when Berg plays a month of poor footy, then drop him.

It’s the same Length of time we gave JJ to pull his finger out, so it’s only fair to give it too the young buck as well!

I don’t think it will go down that way, but if I were picking the team, that’s how I would see it

But the last 2 games we started to get smashed in the ruck and losing momentum when ROB is resting, Our Forward line is still rubbish and needs improvement. Last 2 games Bergs opposing ruck has been a true ruck, not a makeshift.
Himmelberg has not put his selection after 5 games beyond doubt, all he has done is basically matched an out of form JJ first 4 games, not improved on them.
We need a supporting Ruck for ROB against West Coast Hickey and Vardy who can be beaten. We cannot give West Coast a free run in the middle as we did against Brisbane and Port. And we cannot afford to have both our rucks requiring a rest at the same time.
Also, more Goals from our Forwards would help.
Our next 5 weeks are important you play your best team,

 

[marty36]

For me, I'm happy to back a guy in if it's clear he's having a red hot crack. If after a month he needs a spell, that's fair. Jenkins was in cruise and non competitive. Tex is working his ass off.

He can try as hard as he wants if hes playing like a donkey then it makes no difference otherwise go grab a guy from Salisbury B grade who trys his heart out

 

[PAFC_1870]

I watched the first 3/4s of the SANFL game, JJ was ok but didn’t scream pick me, he was on a kid after McKenzie got injured.

We tried our best to get him back to the seniors...

An indirect attempt to sabotage your form jk

In all seriousness I think it's great the Crows made the tough call. It'll be good for the longer term regardless how it turns out.

 

[jackster83]

But the last 2 games we started to get smashed in the ruck and losing momentum when ROB is resting, Our Forward line is still rubbish and needs improvement. Last 2 games Bergs opposing ruck has been a true ruck, not a makeshift.
Himmelberg has not put his selection after 5 games beyond doubt, all he has done is basically matched an out of form JJ first 4 games, not improved on them.
We need a supporting Ruck for ROB against West Coast Hickey and Vardy who can be beaten. We cannot give West Coast a free run in the middle as we did against Brisbane and Port. And we cannot afford to have both our rucks requiring a rest at the same time.
Also, more Goals from our Forwards would help.
Our next 5 weeks are important you play your best team,

Hickey has already been ruled out this week.

 

[skam85]

But the last 2 games we started to get smashed in the ruck and losing momentum when ROB is resting, Our Forward line is still rubbish and needs improvement. Last 2 games Bergs opposing ruck has been a true ruck, not a makeshift.
Himmelberg has not put his selection after 5 games beyond doubt, all he has done is basically matched an out of form JJ first 4 games, not improved on them.
We need a supporting Ruck for ROB against West Coast Hickey and Vardy who can be beaten. We cannot give West Coast a free run in the middle as we did against Brisbane and Port. And we cannot afford to have both our rucks requiring a rest at the same time.
Also, more Goals from our Forwards would help.
Our next 5 weeks are important you play your best team,

Putting this in 5 languages, hopefully comprehension is achieved.

JENKINS IS NOT A GOOD SUPPORTING RUCKMAN

JENKINS NO ES UN BUEN RUCKMAN DE APOYO

JENKINS不是一个很好的支持RUCKMAN

JENKINS NON È UN BUON RUCKMAN DI SUPPORTO

جنكينز ليس رجلا داعما جيدا

 

[ad victoriam]

Hickey has already been ruled out this week.

Bonus then its Vardy and maybe Williams/ Brooksby,

 

[ad victoriam]

Putting this in 5 languages, hopefully comprehension is achieved.

JENKINS IS NOT A GOOD SUPPORTING RUCKMAN

JENKINS NO ES UN BUEN RUCKMAN DE APOYO

JENKINS不是一个很好的支持RUCKMAN

JENKINS NON È UN BUON RUCKMAN DI SUPPORTO

جنكينز ليس رجلا داعما جيدا

Yet he did OK earlier this year when Jacobs was playing Shit, He changed the momentum of the game, our way several times.
JJ as a ruck is good at nullify the ruck contest making it a midfield battle.

And all in English. by the way Google not great at translating English to other Languages.

 

[marty36]

Putting this in 5 languages, hopefully comprehension is achieved.

JENKINS IS NOT A GOOD SUPPORTING RUCKMAN

JENKINS NO ES UN BUEN RUCKMAN DE APOYO

JENKINS不是一个很好的支持RUCKMAN

JENKINS NON È UN BUON RUCKMAN DI SUPPORTO

جنكينز ليس رجلا داعما جيدا

if he isn't one, I hate to tell you we don't have one

A good supporting ruckmen predominantly plays a position and pinch hits in ruck, isn't that JJ

 

[maxlilly]

I cant understand people wanting Jenkins in after one good game in the sanfl after 8 pathetic weeks of football. And that's after he sulked like a baby for 3 weeks when he was dropped.
And drop Himmelberg after one average game when the whole forward structure looks so much better with him playing.
That looks like the worst type of message you could have in a footy club.
It will be interesting to see what happens at selection tonight

 

[marty36]

I cant understand people wanting Jenkins in after one good game in the sanfl after 8 pathetic weeks of football. And that's after he sulked like a baby for 3 weeks when he was dropped.
And drop Himmelberg after one average game when the whole forward structure looks so much better with him playing.
That looks like the worst type of message you could have in a footy club.
It will be interesting to see what happens at selection tonight

Personally I would leave EH in but I am not fused about the win loss I would rather see EH develop

 

[John Who]

Yes.

Rounds 1-4 with Jenkins: 1 win, 3 losses
Rounds 5-9 without Jenkins: 4 wins, 1 loss

Very observant analysis. From this, we can conclude we’re winning now because there is no Seeds/Milera/Sauce/Douglas. None of them should ever play for the Crows at AFL level again!

 

[ad victoriam]

I cant understand people wanting Jenkins in after one good game in the sanfl after 8 pathetic weeks of football. And that's after he sulked like a baby for 3 weeks when he was dropped.
And drop Himmelberg after one average game when the whole forward structure looks so much better with him playing.
That looks like the worst type of message you could have in a footy club.
It will be interesting to see what happens at selection tonight

Himmelberg was brought into the team after 1 good SANFL prior to that he was rubbish in the SANFL. I was surprised he was included. as there were a few other playing better.
And it, not 1 average game, he has been average for a while, but against Brisbane he was rubbish.

 

[skam85]

Very observant analysis. From this, we can conclude we’re winning now because there is no Seeds/Milera/Sauce/Douglas. None of them should ever play for the Crows at AFL level again!

Yes, it is observant.

Much different to the John Who analysis of "the way I see it is..." followed by sentences of the exact opposite of how it is.
I also enjoy the "you guys are looking at this too black and white", when the argument is literally A vs B.

 

[skam85]

if he isn't one, I hate to tell you we don't have one

A good supporting ruckmen predominantly plays a position and pinch hits in ruck, isn't that JJ

No, we don't have one. Himmelberg is developing into that though.

Jenkins will always be an average to decent forward, and an absolutely trash fill in ruckman.

 

[skam85]

Yet he did OK earlier this year when Jacobs was playing ****, He changed the momentum of the game, our way several times.
JJ as a ruck is good at nullify the ruck contest making it a midfield battle..

Jacobs played one and a bit games.
Jenkins did okay for a half against Sydney but his ruck work was not even 5% of the reason why we won that game.
If he changed the momentum so many times in so many of his four games, how come he was dropped?

 

[Interloperer]

I don't understand this idea that the forward structure has looked better in the last five weeks. The team structure as a whole has definitely looked better, but the number of quarters with 2 or less goals would suggest the forward structure is still a massive drag on the rest of the team.

 

[John Who]

Yes, it is observant.

Much different to the John Who analysis of "the way I see it is..." followed by sentences of the exact opposite of how it is.
I also enjoy the "you guys are looking at this too black and white", when the argument is literally A vs B.

Nice try oldie Newbie.
Black and white post was that there is an option C - playing both JJ and EH according to form and physical management. No need to talk like JJ is useless and EH is a living legend - this isn’t very productive.

 

[ad victoriam]

Jacobs played one and a bit games.
Jenkins did okay for a half against Sydney but his ruck work was not even 5% of the reason why we won that game.
If he changed the momentum so many times in so many of his four games, how come he was dropped?

Because our Forward Line was not Kicking Goals and JJ was the worst with the chances he had, he was missing set shots completely missing everything at times, missing the 40/50m and in some case not even making the distance. His Goal kicking was shocking, He was Butcher like.
His confidence was shot, Plus who else in the Forward line would they replace, Walker the Club Captian, Lynch who play that high running Forward.
JJ ruck work in those games was not the reason he was Dropped.