Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[standupand]

Stop counting the wins on paper people and start looking at the team that is out there winning games of football. We are a fit and determined unit this year. Less than top 4 would be because lightning struck the team bus.

 

[cats_09]

To support Vdubs a bit two wins against bottom 4 sides isn't out of this world and a scratchy win against the Saints who have only won one themselves is not much to write home about.

But also, we have 5 more games against bottom 4 sides to come. If you bank those it's 8 wins at likely good %. That plus 2 more wins gets you to 12th last year provided your losses are close so add a game against Essendon and a game against Richmond at GMHBA. So the floor is made of games we're $1.10 in.

With the likely good % we have it'll take 2 more wins to scrape the 8 from there. I'll flag that we play the dogs and Port at GMHBA, and while those teams have their strengths they are both inconsistent against teams that present them a challenge and they have bad histories at GMHBA. So I'll say those are likely to go our way and that places us 9th at worst.

One more win from there and we're 5th to 8th. Collingwood isn't travelling great and we've had a decent record against them. Lions at the gabba a challenge but again they're not travelling great. Suns in Darwin would be difficult based on location. Carlton will be scheduled to implode again, and while they've been winning they've hardly been convincing so we're a shot at winning one of two. Freo has been winning games but they made the crows look like hard work. Dees, Giants, Sydney a challenge.

The win that gets us from 8th-9th to 5th-8th will be hard but we have 9 opportunities to get it. Win today and I'd say our floor is 8th.

I agree we're playing some scratchy footy, but I think that's also something of a positive:

• we're grinding out early wins with inexperience in the side
• experienced players to return
• clear improvement to be had, which you'd hope as we work into the season

I think we're setting up our season nicely - our defensive is looking more solid & working together, we've increased our scoring each week and we're running a few newbies through the middle and they're standing up when the moment counts

No doubt it's a long season and there's still a lot to play out - but I'm going to look at the positives of what we've seen to date & what that could mean for where we're headed

 

[D BRIDGE]

I reckon we will start the season off 3 - 0.

After that, I don’t know.

 

[Interdimensional Bigfoot]

What butthole doesn't think we're going to be premiers.

 

[Gyno79]

Small sample size but Melbourne (top 4 aspiring team) beat crows in Adelaide by 15 points. Cats beat crows in Adelaide by 19 points.

 

[Cattery]

I agree we're playing some scratchy footy, but I think that's also something of a positive:

• we're grinding out early wins with inexperience in the side
• experienced players to return
• clear improvement to be had, which you'd hope as we work into the season

I think we're setting up our season nicely - our defensive is looking more solid & working together, we've increased our scoring each week and we're running a few newbies through the middle and they're standing up when the moment counts

No doubt it's a long season and there's still a lot to play out - but I'm going to look at the positives of what we've seen to date & what that could mean for where we're headed

Reckon that summery is about spot on, we've been a bit underwhelming at times in our three wins, against average or below average teams, but getting the four points is what's important and we've managed that.

Tonight will give us a better indication of where we stand, win this against fairly solid opposition and we should start the season five/zip (no disrespect to North) which will have us handily placed heading into some much tougher games.

I reckon we will start the season off 3 - 0.

After that, I don’t know.

Think you're right on the ball.

 

[cats_09]

4 - 0 to start the season

We look a vastly different team to that we saw last year, and yes it’s a long season but there’s lots of positives to like

The new kittens last year who were trying to find their feet maybe didn’t always have the impact we would have liked in 2023 - guys lile Bruhn & Henry, while the slightly older Bowes was also finding his feet at a new club. So while 23 wasn’t a great year it did present an opportunity to intergrate these guys into the team and we’re now starting to see the benefit

This year we’ve seen those guys step up and that their prepared to shoulder more of the load, especially Bruhn in the midfield that at times has been missing Dangerfield, C. Guthrie, Atkins etc

For the past 10 months there’s been lots of discussion around the playing future of Parfitt - when he was left out of the team in round 1 it seemed he really was on the outer, and then for round 2 he was again only an emergency until a late Thursday night call to get his ass on a plane to Adeladie. Tonight may have been his quietest of the 3 in terms of disposals when he picked up “only” 19, but he lead the way for the team with 8 clearances, which was second on the ground to Libba - he looks a vastly different player in 24 than we saw in 23 and this is goin to present a positive headache for team selection in coming weeks

We’re setting up our season nicely, and while things haven’t always been pretty where we’ve definitely been made to work for our wins - I know I’d much rather be 4-0 with things to work on than have a higher digit in that second column

 

[catempire]

Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.

It would take some slip up from here, or some terrible run with injuries, not to make the 8.

 

[cats_09]

It would take some slip up from here, or some terrible run with injuries, not to make the 8.

Last year Sydney got into the 8 with 12 wins

With 4 wins already on the board, IF we win our remaining KP games that alone puts us on the verge of finals

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch type thing - but it’s almost harder to not make the finals rather than make them from this situation

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Last year Sydney got into the 8 with 12 wins

With 4 wins already on the board, IF we win our remaining KP games that alone puts us on the verge of finals

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch type thing - but it’s almost harder to not make the finals rather than make them from this situation

For all the took of it only being 4 rounds (and I suppose 5 for some) history and the form we're seeing right now would suggest that the 8 is almost set IMO.

The positions will change, but we've more or less got our final 8, and certainly our final 6.

Can see the Dogs slipping out for the Saints, and can only see one of Brisbane or Collingwood making it after their horrific starts.

Outside of that, there's no one who's going to be banging the door down to get back in IMO.

 

[catempire]

4-0 teams for the past 10 years, end of H&A position:

• 2023 St Kilda (6th)
• 2022 Melbourne (2nd)
• 2021 Bulldogs (5th), Melbourne (1st), Sydney (6th)
• 2020 Port Adelaide (1st)
• 2019 None
• 2018 None
• 2017 Geelong (2nd), Adelaide (1st), Richmond (3rd)
• 2016 North Melbourne (8th)
• 2015 Fremantle (1st)
• 2014 Hawthorn (2nd), Geelong (3rd)

 

[Mr Meow]

A 4-0 start with Guthrie missing every game and Dangerfield missing two is bloody brilliant work. And I daresay after the NM game we'll have managed every veteran once besides Stewart and Cameron.

A Dangerfield burst for the 6 tough games we have round 6 onwards would be very helpful. If we get it, top 4 may be on the cards.

 

[cats_09]

4-0 teams for the past 10 years, end of H&A position:

• 2023 St Kilda (6th)
• 2022 Melbourne (2nd)
• 2021 Bulldogs (5th), Melbourne (1st), Sydney (6th)
• 2020 Port Adelaide (1st)
• 2019 None
• 2018 None
• 2017 Geelong (2nd), Adelaide (1st), Richmond (3rd)
• 2016 North Melbourne (8th)
• 2015 Fremantle (1st)
• 2014 Hawthorn (2nd), Geelong (3rd)

Wasn't North was like 10-0 or something crazy before they fell in an absolute heap?

 

[cats_09]

For all the took of it only being 4 rounds (and I suppose 5 for some) history and the form we're seeing right now would suggest that the 8 is almost set IMO.

The positions will change, but we've more or less got our final 8, and certainly our final 6.

Can see the Dogs slipping out for the Saints, and can only see one of Brisbane or Collingwood making it after their horrific starts.

Outside of that, there's no one who's going to be banging the door down to get back in IMO.

One of the biggest hurdles for Collingwood going forward isn't just their need to keep winning games to try and break into the 8, but also the hit their percentage has taken with their early season losses

Collingwood is currently in 13th with a percentage of 84.3 - of the teams above them, it's only Essendon with 81.9% & sitting in 10th who have a worse percentage

Going back over the past decade (ignoring 2020), only once has a team scraped into the 8 with less than 12 wins - that was 2021 when Essendon with 11 wins. And only once has a team scrapped in with a percentage below 100 - that was 2019, also Essendon with 12 wins and 95.4%

So Collingwood will need to push for 12+ wins, while also trying to bump their percentage by 20-25% at the same time


The worst scenario for Collingwood would be a 2018 ladder situation - we finished 8th with 13 wins and a percentage of 131.6% (second best in the comp)

 

[Mr Meow]

9-12, again, although we are starting a lot better than that. This week will tell us a lot about both teams. Neutral venue. Can we do it without Guth and Danger? I suspect this question is going to be asked for a bit of this season. Again. A win tomorrow, and I will add us top 8 in the poll.

Lock it in, Eddie.

Beating North Melbourne is obviously a must.

Winning one of the Melbourne/Carlton games, one of the Brisbane/Gold Coast away trips and both of GWS/Port at home should be the aim from our tough run after that.

That would leave us 9-2 and with a great platform for a top 4 assault. 8-3 and you'd say things are still looking good. 7-4 or worse and we'll rightly be considered middle of the pack.

 

[Mr Meow]

Realistically my opinion hasn't changed too much - "home" final (5th-6th) and a realistic challenge for the last spot in the 4 along the way.

But the Adelaide game was a bonus and if we win any similar "bonus" matches shortly such as Melbourne or Carlton at the G then we will have to be targeting top 4.

 

[Vdubs]

Lock it in, Eddie.

Beating North Melbourne is obviously a must.

Winning one of the Melbourne/Carlton games, one of the Brisbane/Gold Coast away trips and both of GWS/Port at home should be the aim from our tough run after that.

That would leave us 9-2 and with a great platform for a top 4 assault. 8-3 and you'd say things are still looking good. 7-4 or worse and we'll rightly be considered middle of the pack.

We are definitely an improved unit compared to last year. Preseason, HUNGER, less injuries so far...4-0, and my boy (Parf) playing 3 in a row. Lot to like. My favourite Cats (the Henry bros) are playing together. And Bruhn has stepped up. Looking forward to more of Stengle's good form, and most importantly, DeK. Once he hits consistent form, we would deserve top 6.

 

[thecatattack]

We'll be 5-0 but the big test comes after that.

Brisbane away
Carlton at the G
Dees at the G
Port at home

Crazy month.

Then Gold Coast away and GWS at home.

We could genuinely be 5-6 if we don't come with our best.

 

[fpm84]

I am very pleasantly surprised about being 4-0, but I’m not surprised that we’re a substantially improved side.

I can’t believe how many so-called experts seem shocked that we’re, so far, a good side. It’s like they simply looked at last year’s ladder positions and assumed that we were on a downward trajectory. Last season was the worst injury run I’ve ever seen us have, and frankly it was a great effort to be still in finals contention with a couple of rounds to go. We played multiple games last year with 4 of our best 5 midfielders out. The likes of Stengle and SDK who were instrumental in our flag had really significant injuries and never got their seasons going the way they would have liked. Losing J Henry for half the season had a huge impact, and Jezza went from the best player in the game to not even making the AA team in large part due to the injuries he had in the second half of the year.

Surely anybody who spends a tiny bit of time watching footy would think that there was big upside for us in 2024 with a better run?

I’m not proclaiming us as top 4 certainties or anything, there’s a long way to go. But at the very least, with a much fitter and closer to full strength squad this season, we look much closer to the 2022 flag Cats than the 2023 flat cats.

 

[fpm84]

We'll be 5-0 but the big test comes after that.

Brisbane away
Carlton at the G
Dees at the G
Port at home

Crazy month.

Then Gold Coast away and GWS at home.

We could genuinely be 5-6 if we don't come with our best.

Goes without saying that things would have to go incredible badly to go 0-6 from that stretch. Even a 2-4 run, which would put us at 7-4 assuming we beat NM, would have us not only well placed but having gotten GWS, Dees and Port (all top 4 contenders) out of the way in the first half of the year (we do play Carlton a second time later on).

 

[catempire]

I am very pleasantly surprised about being 4-0, but I’m not surprised that we’re a substantially improved side.

I can’t believe how many so-called experts seem shocked that we’re, so far, a good side. It’s like they simply looked at last year’s ladder positions and assumed that we were on a downward trajectory. Last season was the worst injury run I’ve ever seen us have, and frankly it was a great effort to be still in finals contention with a couple of rounds to go. We played multiple games last year with 4 of our best 5 midfielders out. The likes of Stengle and SDK who were instrumental in our flag had really significant injuries and never got their seasons going the way they would have liked. Losing J Henry for half the season had a huge impact, and Jezza went from the best player in the game to not even making the AA team in large part due to the injuries he had in the second half of the year.

Surely anybody who spends a tiny bit of time watching footy would think that there was big upside for us in 2024 with a better run?

I’m not proclaiming us as top 4 certainties or anything, there’s a long way to go. But at the very least, with a much fitter and closer to full strength squad this season, we look much closer to the 2022 flag Cats than the 2023 flat cats.

People still haven’t got their head around what an older list means for performance. Age is positively correlated with performance.

 

[thecatattack]

Goes without saying that things would have to go incredible badly to go 0-6 from that stretch. Even a 2-4 run, which would put us at 7-4 assuming we beat NM, would have us not only well placed but having gotten GWS, Dees and Port (all top 4 contenders) out of the way in the first half of the year (we do play Carlton a second time later on).

I wouldn't think things have to get extremely badly for it to happen.

Brisbane will be wanting to get their first win and will go hard at home. Carlton are great, Dees are a good team and Port are a damn good team. Gold Coast aren't great but I'll never bookmark a win against them away and then GWS are great.

I'm not saying we got 0-6 in that time but we have to be on our game.

 

[cats_09]

I wouldn't think things have to get extremely badly for it to happen.

Brisbane will be wanting to get their first win and will go hard at home. Carlton are great, Dees are a good team and Port are a damn good team. Gold Coast aren't great but I'll never bookmark a win against them away and then GWS are great.

I'm not saying we got 0-6 in that time but we have to be on our game.

Brisbane won on Friday - so they've got their first win under their belts now

 

[iameviljez]

People still haven’t got their head around what an older list means for performance. Age is positively correlated with performance.

Only to a certain degree. You wouldn't suggest that a team of 40 year olds would beat a team of 25 year olds.

The difficult part to gauge is that sports science and medical science have absolutely changed the game on age. 32 used to be that you were absolutely cooked as a footballer, unless you played as a lead-out full forward or were a freak of nature. Not any more.

 

[catempire]

Only to a certain degree. You wouldn't suggest that a team of 40 year olds would beat a team of 25 year olds.

The difficult part to gauge is that sports science and medical science have absolutely changed the game on age. 32 used to be that you were absolutely cooked as a footballer, unless you played as a lead-out full forward or were a freak of nature. Not any more.

We don't get to test that hypothesis because no club will ever field a side that old.

The point remains, year after year the best performed teams are almost uniformly the oldest in the league. Exceptions are very rare (e.g. Dogs 2016, Hawks 2008, Bombers 1993).