Prediction Increased Resources Devoted to US Athletes

[Dynamics]

Hi guys. This kid's story came to light last year so it's old news and therefore it may have been talked about already. If so, sorry 'bout that.

In the US there's a college freshman called Josh Imatorbhebe who plays as a wide receiver and will play college football at USC (University of Southern California). He's 188cm and weighs 91kg. Great build for a midfielder, you could say.

At last year's The Opening (a pretty dodgily named version of draft camp for high schoolers heading to college), Josh performed in the 99th percentile for almost all tests and was ranked in the 99th percentile overall. From that we can read that he's super strong, lightning quick, agile etc.

But holy crap, look at the vertical leap he recorded.

NicNat and Brennan share the AFL Draft Camp record at 102cm. Last year Josh soared to a RIDICULOUS 117cm.



I'll say that again. A 117cm vertical jump.

So this guy is rated top 30 in the country for his position. If he has a strong college career he's a good chance to go to the NFL. Good for him then.

But... if things don't go according to plan, he'd be in his early twenties with physicals attributes no one in the AFL has right now, or has ever had, in my opinion.

If I were Mr Hine I'd keep a close eye on Josh and see how things pan out for him. As big as the NFL is, he's not going to make a great life for himself if he misses out on the big league in the same way that a basketballer might.

Four years in college, a couple of failed trials with clubs in summer training, then a thought pops into his head... Hey, remember those Australian guys with that weird football game they said I should try? They have an American over there doing well. Making good money apparently. Maybe I'll give them a call back and see what's up.

Yes yes yes, I'm fantasising a bit. Ok, OK, a lot!

But as they say, from little things, big things grow. And we don't come by these opportunities by sitting on our hands. We get proactive. To be the best you innovate, you don't just adopt and adapt. You lead, you don't follow.

Derek Hine convinced Cox to come to us instead of the other AFL suitors by taking him to the middle of the MCG and saying "how about making this your office?"

So I'll bring myself back down to Earth a little. Sure, it may not be a Josh Imatorbhebhe that we land, but I hope we are going beyond the idea of sitting on the docks and seeing what the LA camp drags in. If we arent already, let's get out there and do some ground work ourselves. If we've started, let's do more. We have the money and the AFL won't let us spend it elsewhere so let's be super aggressive wherever we can be.

Am I way off here? Am I overestimating the talent going to waste in the US? I don't think so but I'd love to know what you all think.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

117cm is nuts, Chris Conley managed a combine-record 114cm last year before going to the Chiefs, and that was considered the 100th percentile. Thing was, he was considered a raw prospect for playing wide receiver, which is where he'd played in college, let alone learning a new sport altogether.

Still, here he is in warm ups for the 40-yard dash...

 

[Old Spice]

That's a good leap, mind you he starts some fair distance behind rucks even if outstanding overall. Sounds like he has other attributes physically, but I reckon AFL clubs are probably looking primarily for potential ruc/fwd prospects because there is so much to learn/overcome.

A ruck you only have to teach to jump, guard space and tap etc and then rest forward for some end work. Still, it is always worth trying and the category B rookie is outside the salary cap and you would hope the soft FD spend cap also.

 

[Good_Old]

Being that he's so explosive, if you were to do a muscle biopsy wouldn't we see a high percentage of type II x muscle fibres? Therefore being more suitable to a sport with high intensity bursts, like gridiron, basketball etc. Our sport is a lot more endurance based.

 

[Schraderbrau]

 

[sirlothie]

A US athlete is always going to have playing AFL last in his list of priorities, he is going to have to fail at everything else, they don't get drafted until they are 20-21 after going to college and if they miss out they come here and have to learn the unnatural skill of kicking and handballing a football to a professional standard and marking and positioning yourself. It's too late.

Tall players get a lot more leeway because they can use that but if we got normal sized players we would just have a lot of Karmicheal Hunt's.

 

[loki04]

117cm is nuts, Chris Conley managed a combine-record 114cm last year before going to the Chiefs, and that was considered the 100th percentile. Thing was, he was considered a raw prospect for playing wide receiver, which is where he'd played in college, let alone learning a new sport altogether.

Still, here he is in warm ups for the 40-yard dash...

Not doubting he has a good leap, but most peoples leaps look impressive when they pull their feet up to their buttocks.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Sure, but that was his warm-up for a sprint, not his vertical jump test.

 

[loki04]

A US athlete is always going to have playing AFL last in his list of priorities, he is going to have to fail at everything else, they don't get drafted until they are 20-21 after going to college and if they miss out they come here and have to learn the unnatural skill of kicking and handballing a football to a professional standard and marking and positioning yourself. It's too late.

Tall players get a lot more leeway because they can use that but if we got normal sized players we would just have a lot of Karmicheal Hunt's.

Disagree.

Until they try it they wont know.

NRL doesn't have a lot of transferable skills and on top has a drastic body shape change more so then some of the other codes like BBall.

Learning the game isn't as hard as lot of people try make out.

21/22 yo are not incapable of learning over a 2 year period what an 18 yo can learn.

 

[loki04]

Sure, but that was his warm-up for a sprint, not his vertical jump test.

As I said not doubting he has a good leap just more pointing to when people use those shots to say WoW look at that leap.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

My first thought. At 188cm with a leap like that, throw him in the ruck to give us a 4th midfielder in the centre circle at every ball up.

 

[TradeDraft]

My first thought. At 188cm with a leap like that, throw him in the ruck to give us a 4th midfielder in the centre circle at every ball up.

He be a Medium Forward or wingman who can jump over People

 

[Dynamics]

Spot on TD, I thought just the same.

My thoughts on a position for a guy like Josh:

Play him as that medium sized forward who uses his explosive pace to lead up the wings, and jump on people's heads. Along the lines of what Howe was recruited for.

Josh is a wide receiver so he would have at least a decent pair of hands. Mason Cox has a soccer background which would have helped his kicking quite a lot, I think. The coordination is there already. That would be the major concern with a pure American footballer, along with endurance. They are all about their hands, their speed and their positioning so kicking would be foreign to many and may be difficult to overcome by your mid 20s.

 

[Dynamics]

117cm is nuts, Chris Conley managed a combine-record 114cm last year before going to the Chiefs, and that was considered the 100th percentile. Thing was, he was considered a raw prospect for playing wide receiver, which is where he'd played in college, let alone learning a new sport altogether.

Still, here he is in warm ups for the 40-yard dash...

And that's out of college. This kid is doing 117 out of high school. Damn I love that athleticism in US sports.

 

[JB1975]

I really think we should pump a whole lot more money into US recruits. We can teach them the fundamentals of kicking, and then they can master it and teach us how to do it properly.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi guys. This kid's story came to light last year so it's old news and therefore it may have been talked about already. If so, sorry 'bout that.

In the US there's a college freshman called Josh Imatorbhebe who plays as a wide receiver and will play college football at USC (University of Southern California). He's 188cm and weighs 91kg. Great build for a midfielder, you could say.

At last year's The Opening (a pretty dodgily named version of draft camp for high schoolers heading to college), Josh performed in the 99th percentile for almost all tests and was ranked in the 99th percentile overall. From that we can read that he's super strong, lightning quick, agile etc.

But holy crap, look at the vertical leap he recorded.

NicNat and Brennan share the AFL Draft Camp record at 102cm. Last year Josh soared to a RIDICULOUS 117cm.



I'll say that again. A 117cm vertical jump.

So this guy is rated top 30 in the country for his position. If he has a strong college career he's a good chance to go to the NFL. Good for him then.

But... if things don't go according to plan, he'd be in his early twenties with physicals attributes no one in the AFL has right now, or has ever had, in my opinion.

If I were Mr Hine I'd keep a close eye on Josh and see how things pan out for him. As big as the NFL is, he's not going to make a great life for himself if he misses out on the big league in the same way that a basketballer might.

Four years in college, a couple of failed trials with clubs in summer training, then a thought pops into his head... Hey, remember those Australian guys with that weird football game they said I should try? They have an American over there doing well. Making good money apparently. Maybe I'll give them a call back and see what's up.

Yes yes yes, I'm fantasising a bit. Ok, OK, a lot!

But as they say, from little things, big things grow. And we don't come by these opportunities by sitting on our hands. We get proactive. To be the best you innovate, you don't just adopt and adapt. You lead, you don't follow.

Derek Hine convinced Cox to come to us instead of the other AFL suitors by taking him to the middle of the MCG and saying "how about making this your office?"

So I'll bring myself back down to Earth a little. Sure, it may not be a Josh Imatorbhebhe that we land, but I hope we are going beyond the idea of sitting on the docks and seeing what the LA camp drags in. If we arent already, let's get out there and do some ground work ourselves. If we've started, let's do more. We have the money and the AFL won't let us spend it elsewhere so let's be super aggressive wherever we can be.

Am I way off here? Am I overestimating the talent going to waste in the US? I don't think so but I'd love to know what you all think.

Clubs I'm anticipating will be slow adopters as they consistently prove even conservative.

Recruiters will continue looking in the US for ruckmen specifically because recruiters understand that there is athletic height available in the US that doesn't exist in Australia and add some guys here and there based on need if wanting to add another developing ruckman.

Otherwise it's going to be a hard sell, regardless of athleticism for those who don't project to become ruckmen with Joel Wilkinson while not American, a recent case study of how an athlete regardless of his athletic gifts sometimes just isn't enough. And Wilkinson was incredible with his endurance testing among the best few but then his speed testing the best recorded. Then weightlifting similarly he bench pressed probably as much as anyone in the AFL, lifting more than certainly Jonathon Brown and Karmichael Hunt who were the strongmen outside of Wilkinson at that time at their respective clubs.

The general analysis of the American athletes are that for speed/strength/height they offer substantial potential superiority. Some are gifted overhead, some below the knees, some both. So they're good foundations. From a skill perspective they're generally fairly able to learn the skills and by foot typically to a very good level as they don't generally have the bad habits coming in - and we've seen the benefits of that with both McNamara and now Cox.
It's just everything else from endurance, to footy smarts to decision making ability and ability to execute under pressure. So given those generalised projected weaknesses you're looking really only at talls. Ruckmen are the most likely position to acquire. Key defenders perhaps are a possibility. Key forwards as we're seen with Mason Cox and before him from Canada Mike Pyke both developed strong hands overhead and ability to read the flight, so playing forward isn't out of the question as long as they can do other things such as ruck. It's possible you could develop a back pocket type athlete if they show some run and dare with ball in hand in their respective sports.

That's roughly what you're possibly looking at. So your mate Josh Imatorbhebe if he was to play AFL would have to be super quick/agile and play as a 3rd tall defender playing mostly deep in defence or a running back flanker if he really could run and take on the game which playing wide receiver I trust Josh could at AFL level do to a high level. So with that level of athletic superiority he could prove a worthwhile category B rookie. It's just going to be some time until AFL clubs take off their blinkers and consider someone certainly sub 197cm, let alone sub 190cm from the US.

 

[loki04]

KM there is nothing stopping a 188cm yank from playing as a HFF if given time to develop. If you can learn how to play as a KPF and RUck then learning HFF is a sinch.

Nothing.

 

[Knightmare]

KM there is nothing stopping a 188cm yank from playing as a HFF if given time to develop. If you can learn how to play as a KPF and RUck then learning HFF is a sinch.

Nothing.

I can't say I share your optimism regarding a forward flanker from US.

Forward pocket and half forward flank are positions that rely on footballing talent, specifically - freakish touch at ground level, freakish awareness of where the goals are, very quick ability to execute skills by hand and foot, excellent vision and decision making ability, marking ability, tackling ability (including pressuring).

If someone is new to the game, putting them forward or through the midfield is an absolute no-no. They're the positions most reliant on talent.

I hesitate in saying an American can be an adequate key forward. I'd look at them more as, if they can play another position, as Cox can play also in the ruck, that is when it's fine because they can be just good enough with their extra height and physical attributes making up for that lack of footballing talent that is what determines success or otherwise in forwards.

 

[loki04]

I can't say I share your optimism regarding a forward flanker from US.

Forward pocket and half forward flank are positions that rely on footballing talent, specifically - freakish touch at ground level, freakish awareness of where the goals are, very quick ability to execute skills by hand and foot, excellent vision and decision making ability, marking ability, tackling ability (including pressuring).

If someone is new to the game, putting them forward or through the midfield is an absolute no-no. They're the positions most reliant on talent.

I hesitate in saying an American can be an adequate key forward. I'd look at them more as, if they can play another position, as Cox can play also in the ruck, that is when it's fine because they can be just good enough with their extra height and physical attributes making up for that lack of footballing talent that is what determines success or otherwise in forwards.

Like anything it would be hit and miss.

But to say they can't learn or that no one from US could become a talent n our game is very narrow minded and imo wrong.

Some people are just freaks and adapt to what ever sport seamlessly all they need is time and coaching. Lateral agility and speed along with footskills and smarts would see them succeed.
If Goldsack, Macaffer and Blair can play a role as HF/FP then I see no reason a freak US athlete given time can't at the LEAST match their output and likely better it.

You can have 3 cat b rookies on the list, it doesn't come inside the cap and we have excess coin each year why not fill all 3 spots.

Grab 3 players 188-196cm height ranges and see what we unearth.

No point in getting any more Giants like Cox for a while as we have our quota of Ruck height prospects already.

 

[Dynamics]

Thanks for your thoughts, KM. I understand your skepticism. It may be well founded, especially in terms of how the clubs view things.

But I am with you loki, we don't need three Cat B rucks on our list, so why not go for the best available US talent that could potentially fill a need? Be bold, give it a try. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I think Cox shows plenty as a forward. More than Gault. Put it this way, he currently gets a game ahead of Gault, White and Cloke. For a variety of reasons, sure. White and especially Cloke are/were, at their fittest and best, better forwards. No question that Cox getting a game is in part due to his ability to ruck and ruck pretty well. But he's a smart young man. He seems to lead well. He jumps at the right time. Kicks pretty well and has good awareness with ball in hand. He could be a good forward who rucks, rather than a ruck who can play forward. And an awkward match up to boot.

Transfer some of those traits into a 6'2" to 6'6" athlete who can jump over a barn and you've got a footballer worth a Cat B spot in my opinion.

I think the biggest obstacle would be convincing them to come. The NFL dream is an addictive one and coming to Australia to play a weird game for not that much money would seem like a real step down if you harbour any remaining hopes of making it in the NFL.

 

[Pie eyed]

That's a good leap, mind you he starts some fair distance behind rucks even if outstanding overall. Sounds like he has other attributes physically, but I reckon AFL clubs are probably looking primarily for potential ruc/fwd prospects because there is so much to learn/overcome.

A ruck you only have to teach to jump, guard space and tap etc and then rest forward for some end work. Still, it is always worth trying and the category B rookie is outside the salary cap and you would hope the soft FD spend cap also.

I spend the whole year sneaking up behind him and yelling "BOO!"

 

[Knightmare]

Like anything it would be hit and miss.

But to say they can't learn or that no one from US could become a talent n our game is very narrow minded and imo wrong.

Some people are just freaks and adapt to what ever sport seamlessly all they need is time and coaching. Lateral agility and speed along with footskills and smarts would see them succeed.
If Goldsack, Macaffer and Blair can play a role as HF/FP then I see no reason a freak US athlete given time can't at the LEAST match their output and likely better it.

You can have 3 cat b rookies on the list, it doesn't come inside the cap and we have excess coin each year why not fill all 3 spots.

Grab 3 players 188-196cm height ranges and see what we unearth.

No point in getting any more Giants like Cox for a while as we have our quota of Ruck height prospects already.

With forward play consider the types of players who succeed.

Brent Harvey, Cyril Rioli, Eddie Betts, Chad Wingard, Brett Deledio, Luke Breust, Luke Dahlhaus, Dayne Zorko, Shane Edwards, Jake Stringer, Dustin Martin, Harley Bennell, Gary Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield, Michael Walters, Steven Motlop, Jeff Garlett. These guys could reasonably be considered among the best general forwards in the competition.

What is it that makes these guys special talents? Are they special talents because they are freak track athletes?

The consistent thing with all these guys is they are so good because of their superior (and freakish) footballing talent. You only have to think about the steriotype of Indigenous players making good forwards. There is a very concrete reason why this is the case. They have often played AFL for most of their life and have great touch and feel for the ball, freakish cleanness at ground level, super quick hands, super quick ability to get ball onto the boot, freakish goalsense and freakish ability to move through traffic and create more time and space for themselves.

American athletes as Cox is proving can experience success in the AFL and develop an appropriate skillset. The difference is while the can develop an appropriate skillset, the aforementioned skills that are seen in the great forwards are not easily developable skills. It's easier to teach an American how to kick correctly and kick straight or learn a basic element of the game than any of these incredibly complete areas that require the most extreme levels of born talent.

I know where you're coming from with Goldsack, Macaffer and Blair from that role playing perspective. I don't know why you'd go to the US to find forwards like those guys who aren't good for so much as even a goal a game, it's a waste of time recruiting players of that mediocre level of ability to play forward. It doesn't result in balanced scoreboard impact with a variety of goalkicking threats.

In an American athlete is 188-196cm and freakishly athlete or powerful on another level. Then I wouldn't necessarily say no. My point is my positional vision for development would be entirely different. Forget playing forward, lean to play in the back half as a key defender or something else down back depending on height or capacity to take on the game with run and execute by foot.

Thanks for your thoughts, KM. I understand your skepticism. It may be well founded, especially in terms of how the clubs view things.

But I am with you loki, we don't need three Cat B rucks on our list, so why not go for the best available US talent that could potentially fill a need? Be bold, give it a try. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I think Cox shows plenty as a forward. More than Gault. Put it this way, he currently gets a game ahead of Gault, White and Cloke. For a variety of reasons, sure. White and especially Cloke are/were, at their fittest and best, better forwards. No question that Cox getting a game is in part due to his ability to ruck and ruck pretty well. But he's a smart young man. He seems to lead well. He jumps at the right time. Kicks pretty well and has good awareness with ball in hand. He could be a good forward who rucks, rather than a ruck who can play forward. And an awkward match up to boot.

Transfer some of those traits into a 6'2" to 6'6" athlete who can jump over a barn and you've got a footballer worth a Cat B spot in my opinion.

I think the biggest obstacle would be convincing them to come. The NFL dream is an addictive one and coming to Australia to play a weird game for not that much money would seem like a real step down if you harbour any remaining hopes of making it in the NFL.

In terms of category B rookies for ruckmen I'd be looking to the US firstly because that is a location with so many extreme tall athletes. After that I'd look with those remaining positions if the clubs ruck stocks (as presently could be said to be the case) are stocked, and having the two category B rookie ruckman I feel is perfect to have. Those other two positions I'd look to different alternative pathways and focus more broadly than America. I'd be looking most specifically for once junior AFL footballers who may be able to return to AFL play firstly. Once those guys have been explored then I'd be looking to those cross-country runners and steeplechase runners and see if I can find someone else with an endurance superiority. With recruiting the key is finding points of difference that can carry over into games. So finding that extreme level of endurance superiority as Mark Blicavs has then that would be my next area to search. From there I'd be inclined to scout some soccer leagues for some guys with good height and size, and if they move well and have the footskills, I'd be interested to see what I could do with the soccer convert, which seems to be an afterthought with clubs with their category B rookie positions all focusing in on the US market at the present time and those failed basketball/grid iron guys.

Going back to the idea of the US market. The critical thing to understand is understand the strengths of what those athletes offer, then understand by position of need, what attributes are more important to successful play in those positions. The ruck in the US market is obviously the most compatible, and I could make a case for say a wide receiver that they could become a running back flanker, or someone just short of ruck height could become a successful key defender. But that's overall the greatest usefulness from the talent from that market. Looking for other talents, you need to understand the types of athletes in which sports, in which countries you can find those guys with those appropriate talents. Up forward because of the types of skills required as per my response to Loki, general forwards aren't likely to come from outside the AFL system, but other types certainly could and will continue to at a far greater frequency because of their more compatible attributes to those other positions.

 

[Black_White]

Australia's own game being taken over by Americans?
Why not.
They altpreadtpy control our language, our TVs, our eating habits, our music.
Why not just become a state of the USofA and be done with it.

 

[4#Didak#4]

I don't think just being an athlete cuts it for me. Being fast, strong or jumpin like MJ is not enough. To be a worthwhile investment there needs to be some ability to learn the game. Izzy Floau is a good example, lots of time and energy (& $$ spent) to train him up but at the end of the day he just didn't get it. They are coming late to the game so they need to essentially pick it up without spending years in the VFL working it out.

If I was spedning money over there I would only look at college basketballers as there is a better likelihood of them picking up the mechanics of the game. They pick it up so much quicker as it is s 360 degs game. Skills can be taught, game plans can be taught but that ability to move through the field and know where to go at random times whilst under fire is tough to teach. The Irish boys get it to a degree, but still seem to struggle when in close.

I think it is folly to pick a awesome athlete from say a NFL background and think he is going to have an impact without spending many years of getting them up to speed. - they will quit like Izzy.

Mason Cox is doing some things in traffic that wasn't taught by the Collingwood coaches he just has a great spacial awareness - not only when he has the ball but also when he doesn't. There is a growing list of ex basketballers on AFL lists and I see this continuing.