Analysis Inexperience watch

[POBT]

While it is interesting to see the breakdown, I reckon that the difference between a 100-199 gamer and someone with 200+ games is pretty marginal. In fact, you could probably argue that the likes of Murphy and Gia (both over 250 games) are a lot less integral to the outcome for the Dogs than Griffen and Minson (both in the 150-199 game bracket).

The 100+ games count at 8-6 in favour of the Dogs - that's not a significant advantage IMO, particularly when you note that the 25-99 bracket is even.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Taylor, Gardner, Aish, O'Brien

Yeah you were right.

I think I have been looking at players with less than 10 games experience even though I have actually written it down on here as 0-10 games.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 13 - Lions vs. GWS at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. GWS 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. GWS 4
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 6 vs. GWS 11
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 4 vs. GWS 3
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. GWS 3
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. GWS 1

It is an interesting one this week - we have 2 more players with more than 100 games experience, but we also have 2 more very inexperienced players with less than 25 games experience. GWS obviously have half their team in the 25 to 49 game category.

Overall, it seems we still have the experience edge given the number of players with less than 50 games experience is 12 for us vs. 15 for them - although the gap is a lot closer than our two previous encounters. I also tried to work out average games played for each sides with the Lions having played an average of 73.8 games vs. GWS 58.8 (if I added things up correctly).

On our players, Zorko will move up a category next week given it's his 50th game, whilst Clarke has already moved up a category this week after playing his 25th game last Saturday.

 

[chopperduck]

Interesting how comparable we are to an expansion side for youth and experience, and it is something that is likely to go down for us with retirements of older players in the next year or two.

Great and interesting read as always.

 

[Last of the Roys]

With Close coming in for Merrett as a late change it changes some of the numbers around below (narrowing the experience gap between the sides):

Round 13 - Lions vs. GWS at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. GWS 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. GWS 4
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 6 vs. GWS 11
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 4 vs. GWS 3
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. GWS 3
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. GWS 1

It is an interesting one this week - we have 2 more players with more than 50 games experience, but we also have 3 more very inexperienced players with less than 25 games experience. GWS obviously have half their team in the 25 to 49 game category.

Overall, it seems we still have the experience edge given the number of players with less than 50 games experience is 13 for us vs. 15 for them - although the gap is a lot closer than our two previous encounters. I also tried to work out average games played for each sides with the Lions having played an average of 66.7 games vs. GWS 58.8 (if I added things up correctly).

On our players, Zorko will move up a category next week given it's his 50th game, whilst Clarke has already moved up a category this week after playing his 25th game last Saturday.

 

[luthor]

So it ended up with us having twice as many 0 to 24 gamers (10 to 5) as they had.

Then we lost our only 200+ gamer (Browny) half way through the match.

 

[Last of the Roys]

So it ended up with us having twice as many 0 to 24 gamers (10 to 5) as they had.

Then we lost our only 200+ gamer (Browny) half way through the match.

It was only 7 to 4 luthor - the figures for players with 10 games or less are included in the 0 to 24 category. Still, it does seem to continue to prove that the 0-24 game category differential is the most important.

In fact, I have gone over all of our matches this year and this is what they look like in terms of number of players with less than 25 games experience:

• R1 - lost to the Hawks at Launceston by 48 points - Lions 6 very inexperienced players vs. Hawks 5
• R2 - lost to Geelong at the Gabba by 25 points - Lions 7 vs. Cats 6
• R3 - lost to Gold Coast at Metricon by 53 points - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 5
• R4 - lost to Port at Adelaide Oval by 113 points - Lions 9 vs. Port 5
• R5 - lost to Richmond at the Gabba by 43 points - Lions 10 vs. Richmond 5
• R6 - beat the Saints in Wellington by 3 points - Lions 8 vs. Saints 8
• R7 - lost to Sydney at the Gabba by 79 points - Lions 8 vs. Swans 4
• R8 - lost to Essendon at the Gabba by 8 points - Lions 8 vs. Essendon 6
• R9 - lost to North at Etihad by 87 points - Lions 11 vs. North 3
• R10 - BYE
• R11 - beat Carlton at the Gabba by 7 points - Lions 8 vs. Carlton 5
• R12 - beat the Bulldogs at Etihad by 8 points - Lions 7 vs. Bulldogs 5
• R13 - lost to GWS at the Gabba by 45 points - Lions 7 vs. GWS 4

The black games are where the inexperience differential is 2 or less - where it shouldn't matter too much. The blue games are where the gap is 3 or more and that go according to script (i.e. the team with less very inexperienced players wins).

The red game is the one that bucks that trend - it has now only happened 3 times in the last 2 and a half seasons. That is, in games we have played, a team has only overcome a very inexperienced player differential of 3 or more on 3 occassions - each time it was us playing at home and we got up in an upset.

 

[chopperduck]

I would certainly agree LOTR that the <24 games category is probably one of the most important. I think realistically, under 50 games, under 150 games and anything above 150 is the main 3 sections that you can group players into, being young and inexperienced, to then having the experience and getting the fitness to play to their potential, then being the experienced senior players of the team.

Our problem is, and will be for awhile, we don't have the quality in the >150 game category, and those that are there, are on the way down. We need our best players, the likes of Rich, Redden, Rocky, Hanley to be up in this >150 category. Until then they are still finding their way. But i have hope, in a few seasons these players will be in this category or close to it, and the likes of Green, Zorko, Aish, Mayes, Taylor, Harwood etc should have the L plates off and really starting to contribute on a more 2nd tier consistent basis. That is when i think we will see the team make some leaps and bounds. Of course we have the problem that by this time half of our defence is gone or close to it and our only effective tall forward is gone. I do hope we can suppliment good drafting over the next 2-3 years with a good FA signing or two, be it a defender or KPF to help fill that gap. Hopefully we can land that KPF we need this year, and he too will be reaching that 50 game target with 2 - 3 preseasons into them.

Next 2-4 years are very important for our team, and more importantly keeping the talent we acquire. Whilst we will be a young team, the profile of the list will start becoming a lot more healthy, and they will come through around the same time. I really hope you keep this effort up, it will be interesting to watch over the next few years as our list profile changes, and how this relates to team success.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Our problem is, and will be for awhile, we don't have the quality in the >150 game category, and those that are there, are on the way down. We need our best players, the likes of Rich, Redden, Rocky, Hanley to be up in this >150 category. Until then they are still finding their way. But i have hope, in a few seasons these players will be in this category or close to it, and the likes of Green, Zorko, Aish, Mayes, Taylor, Harwood etc should have the L plates off and really starting to contribute on a more 2nd tier consistent basis. That is when i think we will see the team make some leaps and bounds. Of course we have the problem that by this time half of our defence is gone or close to it and our only effective tall forward is gone. I do hope we can suppliment good drafting over the next 2-3 years with a good FA signing or two, be it a defender or KPF to help fill that gap. Hopefully we can land that KPF we need this year, and he too will be reaching that 50 game target with 2 - 3 preseasons into them.

Another part of the problem is that we have players that have the experience we need but aren't able to make the team (Raines, Polkinghorne & Lester).

 

[paulige]

• R1 - lost to the Hawks at Launceston by 48 points - Lions 6 very inexperienced players vs. Hawks 5
• R2 - lost to Geelong at the Gabba by 25 points - Lions 7 vs. Cats 6
• R3 - lost to Gold Coast at Metricon by 53 points - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 5
• R4 - lost to Port at Adelaide Oval by 113 points - Lions 9 vs. Port 5
• R5 - lost to Richmond at the Gabba by 43 points - Lions 10 vs. Richmond 5
• R6 - beat the Saints in Wellington by 3 points - Lions 8 vs. Saints 8
• R7 - lost to Sydney at the Gabba by 79 points - Lions 8 vs. Swans 4
• R8 - lost to Essendon at the Gabba by 8 points - Lions 8 vs. Essendon 6
• R9 - lost to North at Etihad by 87 points - Lions 11 vs. North 3
• R10 - BYE
• R11 - beat Carlton at the Gabba by 7 points - Lions 8 vs. Carlton 5
• R12 - beat the Bulldogs at Etihad by 8 points - Lions 7 vs. Bulldogs 5
• R13 - lost to GWS at the Gabba by 45 points - Lions 7 vs. GWS 4

Looking at that, every single time the differential has been 4 or more against us, we have been completely obliterated - 113, 43, 79, and 87 points. (the 43 was Richmond at the Gabba... I'd count losing to them, there, as an obliteration)

This week should be fantastic...

 

[Last of the Roys]

The numbers for this week are not pretty to say the least. In fact they seemingly predict a massacre. They are probably the most lopsided experience figure I have seen in the last 2 and half years.

So if you can dare read on, round 14 Lions vs. Freo at Subiaco:

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 5 vs. Freo 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Freo 0
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Freo 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. Freo 8
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Freo 8
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Freo 2

That's right we have 8 players with less than 25 games experience vs. none for Freo. At the other end we only have 5 players with more than 100 games experience vs. 10 from Freo. Just for a laugh I looked at the average games played as well and we are on 61.4 this week vs. 117.3 for our opponents (I couldn't be bothered checking it twice, but that Freo figure is huge).

I think the best we can hope for is a match like the last two we have played against them over there. Bottling things up and remaining competitive for the first half.

 

[Gibbo_88]

oh...

 

[Last of the Roys]

Looking through this thread I actually just found one other similar match to this one.

In 2012 vs. West Coast at Subiaco it was also 8 vs. 0 in terms of very inexperienced players - we lost by 98 points.

So obviously any margin less than that will be a bonus!

 

[John]

Seven asterisks hell. We are in for it. Suspect I may give this place a miss on Saturday night. Not worth the angst. Great thread as usual LotR. You are to be congratulated for two things:- putting this out each week as it must be a chore and putting it all into perspective.

 

[jackess]

Freo are very old. They have a few mature agers in the side as well.

 

[chopperduck]

2/3 of their side between 50 and 200 games. Thats why their flag window is open.

The only bonus is if we can keep our group together we will end up with something similar in the future, with a good group.of players coming through at the same time.

 

[Kevvo]

Unless they finally find a big free agent to give all that money to, they'll be absolutely stuffed in a couple of years when they have nobody coming through the pipeline.

Thanks LotR. This is easily one of the most informative (and, currently, bleak) threads on the board.

 

[Davemonkey]

What I take from this is Ross is flogging another list to within an inch of its life and poor old Freo just may be where Saint Kilda are now in 4-5 years. I kind of hope they get the premiership for their efforts.

Oh and we are in for a tough day in the office.

 

[Dizzle]

By my reckoning we'll have the 10 most inexperienced players on the park (then Lauchie Neale with 34 games for Freo). And that's after we rest Aish, who would ordinarily be in there. And at the other end they have the 5 most experienced.

In short, they have guys who have run through more milestone banners than most of our kids have played games.

Rossy is churning and burning again. Just look at how he left the Saints. This could get messy.

 

[Cousin Jed]

I thought we would get flogged. Then I saw this thread.

Anyone want to do something with me tomorrow?

 

[Skoob]

I thought we would get flogged. Then I saw this thread.

Anyone want to do something with me tomorrow?

What'd you have in mind?

 

[Ceebee]

It is unfortunate.but at least the season is half over .Not too much pain to go.
Feel sorry for the boys tomorrow night.must be hard for them knowing what they are in for.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Imagine if we can put in a good performance - even being competitive for say 2 and a bit quarters. It would be all that more impressive.

You never know, but we would need a lot of things to go right, especially early on. (I just remembered we started pretty well against Port this year in similar circumstances - gee that turned out well!!!)

 

[western royboy]

Wet track - do unto others what you would have done to you. Park the bus in the back line and play Ross Lyon at his own game. Two goals could win it.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Better news this week on the experience front, we have closed the gap to North considerably since round 9, although we are still a fair way behind.

Anyway, Round 15 - Lions vs. North at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. North 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. North 4 [in round 9 it was Lions 11 vs. North 3]
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. North 3
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. North 6
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. North 5
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. North 4

There is a much stronger chance we can be competitive this week, especially at home. Although we still have half of our team (11) with less than 50 games experience vs. North with 7, but that is down from 15 vs. 5 in round 9.

Still the average games gap is pretty big with the Lions team going in with an average of 73 games experience to Norths 110.4 (which is boosted a fair bit by four on 200+, especially Harvey on 375).

All in all, North have a clear advantage, but we have a lot more hope that we will be competitive this week, and even an outside chance of a win.

I think I would be happy if we stay in touch for the first 3 quarters.