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Expected accuracy is based on the AFL average for any player from the spot on the ground where a kick is taken from, taking into account the type of kick (snap, set shot, etc) and the level of pressure the player is under.

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The Eagles are over performing in accuracy given the quality of chances we’ve created. That’s good, but also has the potential to regress. What is good full stop though is the quality of chances we’re creating.

Basically, of all the teams this year, our shots at goal have been from the fifth easiest according to this formula, meaning we’re getting the ball into good areas for our shots.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/ap...r/news-story/c20bfe594092e767cfd3b67162092796
 

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Strange how Collingwood's draw to date is ranked 10th, and their remaining draw is ranked 16th?? Last year it was Richmond who got a bottom 6 team draw after playing in a GF, this year it's Collingwood's turn. Is anyone really surprised though......

You have to remember the effect Melbourne falling off a cliff has on these sorts of rankings. Richmond are also currently outside the top 4 skewing it a little further.

Every year the apparent difficulty of a draw vs the actual difficulty changes quite a lot.

Also top 4 teams always look like they have easier draws because they can't play themselves.

I would go as far to say that apparent draw difficulty isn't a very good measure of how teams are going to go.
 
The Eagles are over performing in accuracy given the quality of chances we’ve created. That’s good, but also has the potential to regress. What is good full stop though is the quality of chances we’re creating.

Basically, of all the teams this year, our shots at goal have been from the fifth easiest according to this formula, meaning we’re getting the ball into good areas for our shots.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/ap...r/news-story/c20bfe594092e767cfd3b67162092796

Someone on the Squiggle thread posted up W-L on scoring shots rather than goals and points and it had us tumbling down the ladder. We've stayed relevant by our elite conversion off minimal opportunities. Simmo will know this and is no doubt pushing to boost our supply because our forwards will have an off day eventually.
 
The Eagles are over performing in accuracy given the quality of chances we’ve created. That’s good, but also has the potential to regress. What is good full stop though is the quality of chances we’re creating.

Basically, of all the teams this year, our shots at goal have been from the fifth easiest according to this formula, meaning we’re getting the ball into good areas for our shots.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/ap...r/news-story/c20bfe594092e767cfd3b67162092796

"We should expect both the Cats and Eagles to regress over the back half of the year, and while it’s impossible to say if that will cost them a win or two, it’s entirely possible"

or perhaps these two clubs have identified that goal kicking (and kicking skills is general) is the most important aspect in being successful, and perhaps trained it more than the others. Far too simplistic to say "we should expect them to regress"
 
Might be more because we lower our eyes going into the 50 and hit targets in good areas as opposed to just bombings like other clubs might.

Geelong's surgance in that area would be helped playing Ablett more forward and improving their forward 50 delivery.
 
Someone on the Squiggle thread posted up W-L on scoring shots rather than goals and points and it had us tumbling down the ladder. We've stayed relevant by our elite conversion off minimal opportunities. Simmo will know this and is no doubt pushing to boost our supply because our forwards will have an off day eventually.
The thing that gives me confidence though is we won a flag doing that exact thing. Number 1 in the AFL for scores per inside 50 in 2018 (Not sure on the stat for this year). Just shows how good our forward line is when it’s on, and our mids, despite not always winning the supply battle, deliver it to them on a platter when it goes in there. Efficiency is a lot of the reason we are so good, so I don’t expect it to drop off any time soon.
 
My take from all that is how soft a draw Geelong got. How did they manage that - a birthday present for Scott, perhaps.
It's typical Geelong though. They will be boosted up from a soft draw and their home game advantage, only to fall short in finals like they did in 2016 and 2017 (I think they might've gone out in straight sets in 2014 too).
 
It's typical Geelong though. They will be boosted up from a soft draw and their home game advantage, only to fall short in finals like they did in 2016 and 2017 (I think they might've gone out in straight sets in 2014 too).

I'm fairly certain the AFL have said if Geelong match up against a non-Vic they'll get to host the final on their own dung heap. Wondering if that stance changes if it's the reigning premier they come up against and the potential crowd the game draws may exceed the heaps capacity..
 

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Strange how Collingwood's draw to date is ranked 10th, and their remaining draw is ranked 16th?? Last year it was Richmond who got a bottom 6 team draw after playing in a GF, this year it's Collingwood's turn. Is anyone really surprised though......
Problem is the draw is done based on the previous season's results. So there was expectation that Richmond, Melbourne and Essendon would be top 4, if not close to, this season.

The analysis, however, is done on current (rd11) ladder positions. Which means all the Pies double-ups which were meant to be top 4, are now not, and thus are now 'easier' fixtures.

On the other hand, we've doubled up on teams who have held or bettered form since last season.
 
I'm fairly certain the AFL have said if Geelong match up against a non-Vic they'll get to host the final on their own dung heap. Wondering if that stance changes if it's the reigning premier they come up against and the potential crowd the game draws may exceed the heaps capacity..

Nup. You watch - if its against us then the AFL will trot out the "Geelong have played well all year and deserve a home final" bit.
 
The Eagles are over performing in accuracy given the quality of chances we’ve created. That’s good, but also has the potential to regress. What is good full stop though is the quality of chances we’re creating.

Basically, of all the teams this year, our shots at goal have been from the fifth easiest according to this formula, meaning we’re getting the ball into good areas for our shots.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/ap...r/news-story/c20bfe594092e767cfd3b67162092796

Found this hilarious on On the Couch on Monday. I always got so ****ing frustrated and angry at our delivery into the forward 50 under woosha, particularly in 11-13. Seems he hasn’t changed whilst we’ve improved drastically.
 
Duffield's mid season report card

https://thewest.com.au/sport/west-c...gles-player-at-mid-season-mark-ng-b881231578z

Shannon Hurn: A+
Averaging 25 disposals per game with seven rebound 50s. If you want a bloke clearing the ball from defence with a view to attack, Hurn is that bloke. Has hit an absolute peak in the past two seasons and is playing superb football.
Brad Sheppard: A+
Going at 20 disposals per game, which is a good number because he is often expected to play tighter and on a more dangerous opponent than other West Coast defenders. Very sound, whether defending or with the ball in his hands.
Elliot Yeo: A+
He had a slow start to the season coming off a toe injury but when West Coast had to pull themselves out of an early season mini-slump, Yeo was the player who imposed himself physically. Averaged almost 10 tackles a game between the round five loss to Port Adelaide and the round 11 win over the Western Bulldogs.
Dom Sheed: A+
Averaging 26 disposals per game and has kicked 11 goals. Got rolling early, then quieter when Andrew Gaff first returned but has steadied his season in recent weeks. Prolific mid who rarely misses chances to hit the scoreboard.
Andrew Gaff: A
Solid return from the tumultuous suspension of late 2018 that ruled him out of a premiership. Going at 32 disposals per game. If we are picky, there have been matches when the numbers have been more impressive than the impact.
Luke Shuey: A
His best is the best football that any West Coast player can produce. We saw that in round 10 against Adelaide and round 11 against the Western Bulldogs. Solid rather than super for the rest of the season but still the Eagles midfielder opponents fear.
Josh Kennedy: A
I would love to have kicked 27 goals in 11 games and have people wondering if I am near my best. Consistent. Kicks goals in every game and has a minimum of three from the past four. Working into form.
Jack Darling: B+
Had some poor matches earlier but then hit a purple patch when his form resembled his stellar year last season. Wouldn’t say he has been at that level as consistently this year but he still has 26 goals from 12 games, including six against the Bulldogs.
Jack Redden: B+
Not in the stellar form he was in during the 2018 finals series but still a rock-solid contributor through the midfield. Fits the role the team needs from him and averages 21 disposals per match with some upside ahead. Going OK.
Jeremy McGovern: B+
Not at the stunning levels of 2018 but still one of the AFL’s best defenders and one who takes up a lot of an oppositions’ planning. Teams have found ways to challenge his want to defend. Sometimes that works, other times he still dominates the air.
Jamie Cripps: B+
It took him a while to warm to his work after an interrupted pre-season. Was good first-up against Collingwood, then quiet for a month before hitting his straps. Kicked 10 goals in a five-game stretch up to round 11. Was poor against Sydney last weekend but he wasn’t alone.
Liam Ryan: B
Has warmed to his work after a quiet start to the year. Has enjoyed a pretty solid month and was one of few to look dangerous against Sydney last weekend. Just going at a goal a match at the moment but if the effort continues the goals should come.
Lewis Jetta: B
He is unlikely to have a top-five finish in a best-and-fairest count but he remains very important to the way the Eagles want to play. He and Hurn are the chief rebounders for the club and the most damaging with the ball in their hands.
Liam Duggan: B
Solid first half of the season from the left-footer, who has worked himself into a position where he is a definite member of the club’s best 22. He is going at 17 disposals per game, and is reliable in a contest. They will need him to step up significantly though if Hurn misses for an extended period.
Mark Hutchings: B
Has retained his spot in the team because Adam Simpson likes to retain the option of a run-with midfielder. Is going at around 13.5 disposals per match but is preferred to Chris Masten because of his defensive work. Will need to be at his best to stay in the team in the run home.
Tom Barrass: B
Only this far down the pecking order because of foot stress fractures which have sidelined him since round four. Important member of the defence. Due back in three weeks. The Eagles will look a stronger and more flexible defensive unit if he gets back successfully.
Oscar Allen: B
Hasn’t found a lot of the ball, going at under 10 disposals per game, but has kicked 12 goals and has lent a hand in the ruck while Tom Hickey has been injured. There is a lot to like about him as a player of the future and we are getting some early glimpses of it.
Will Schofield: B
Just steps up when needed. In last year’s finals that was because Sheppard went down. This year it has been because Barrass has been hurt. It’s marginal whether he is in the best 22 but his flexibility and professionalism gives him value. A star in the 2018 grand final. Still hanging in there.
Tom Hickey: B
Has played eight of the 12 games, has kicked three goals and averaged around 19 hit-outs per match. If Nic Naitanui were to come back tomorrow, it would be interesting to see whether he or Nathan Vardy would get the nod as ruck support. Hickey has been better but Vardy is the more natural forward.
Jack Petruccelle: B
When the game is on his terms with space in front of him, he can be devastating. Just too quick for most. Kicked five goals against Port when the game opened up ahead of him. Goalless in three of the past six matches. Needs to be better when it isn’t on his terms.
Daniel Venables: C+
Was showing signs of improvement against St Kilda when he had 15 disposals and a goal, then got absolutely cleaned up in an accidental mid-air collision against Melbourne and has been given time to get over a significant concussion.
Tom Cole: C+
Has played every game but has struggled in a few of them. One of those players who does best when the defence around him is running smoothly. Backed in to be part of the best 22. Jackson Nelson can’t be that far behind him at times.
Nathan Vardy: C+
A lot was asked of him when Hickey went down with injury for a month. He struggled for a few matches, then started to emerge from the slump but wasn’t great against Sydney at SCG last round. Is going to have to convince the Eagles he can play as a part-time forward to be in the team when Naitanui gets back.
Josh Rotham: C+
Made an impressive debut against Collingwood in round three and has had a couple of opportunities since. He has clearly improved and now it is a case of being able to shoehorn himself into a premiership defence. That isn’t easy but he has time.
Willie Rioli: C+
One of the favourites for most people because of his great talent and game sense but we have seen him only four times because of injury. Has kicked six goals in those matches but has had limited impact. The Eagles would love more in the back half of the year.
Jake Waterman: C+
Had a great start to the season in the WAFL but couldn’t force his way into a winning team. Has played four of the past five games and kicked four goals including three against the Western Bulldogs, but had a quiet game against the Swans.
Chris Masten: C+
Fell out of the team after seven matches. He was averaging just a tick over 14 disposals per game. An interrupted pre-season didn’t help the veteran who relies on hard running, but he faces a battle to get back in now.
Josh Smith: C+
Has been a handy addition to the squad because of his work ethic and leadership at WAFL level, but has struggled to make any meaningful impact in the AFL. Has played two games for 23 disposals, in round two against Greater Western Sydney and in round 12 against Sydney.
Jackson Nelson: C+
Has played 43 AFL games but only 10 in 2018 and just one this year, against Adelaide in round 10 when he had just four disposals in defence. At 23 he has some time but he either needs an injury to open up a chance or may need to look elsewhere.
Jarrod Brander: C+
He played once last year and twice this year — both in disappointing team performances. Solid at the WAFL level and still just 20. When you have gun talls, it is hard for the kids to break in.
Brendon Ah Chee: C+
He played eight games last year and looked handy at times without ever really nailing a spot. He has been close a couple of times this year as well and has been solid in the WAFL. He is 25 and his time needs to be now.
Francis Watson: C+
Was very close to an AFL berth in round one, then injured a shoulder in the WAFL in round four and missed a month of football. Has returned in recent weeks but has work to do to climb back into contention.
Matthew Allen: C+
He is a really good size and it is a matter of working out where he fits — if he does fit. Could be a third tall in attack but has been used midfield a fair bit in the WAFL and has been named as an emergency a few times.
Jarrod Cameron: C+
He has made the emergency list a couple of times. Going at a goal a game in seven WAFL games for West Coast and starting to lay more tackles. Has talent. Has time.
Keegan Brooksby: C+
The good news is that he has been solid in the WAFL all year and dominant a few times. The bad news is that when your best games coincide with AFL injury and form issues in the ruck and you still don’t play, you are definitely there for depth.
Fraser McInnes: C
Nicknamed “Workhorse” by his teammates. Popular at the club and a good citizen. Gives it everything all the time and like Brooksby — purely there for depth in case a mature body is needed to step up.
Kurt Mutimer: C
Had a big match last time out in the WAFL against West Perth. Apart from that his form has been solid rather than spectacular. Turns 26 in a month’s time and looks a fair way down the pecking order.
Brayden Ainsworth: C
Has had a challenging year. Broke through for a couple of games last year but the second year can be tough. Averaging 20 disposals in seven WAFL appearances.
Hamish Brayshaw: C
Still just 21, going at better than 20 disposals per game in the WAFL but has to climb over a few to get himself into AFL contention. Strong last time out against West Perth.
Bailey Williams: C
Has just turned 19 and is as raw as a freshly cracked egg but you have to like the way he moves. At 199cm with the capacity to ruck or play a key position, he is a long-term prospect but a prospect nonetheless.
Harry Edwards: C
He is a good size, still only 18 and both WA clubs liked him when the rookie draft was held. The Eagles need to develop him hard over the next 12 months and see what they might have.
Luke Foley: C
Strong-bodied mid who starred in Subiaco’s colts premiership. Has played nine WAFL games and is working his way into the season after a quiet start. Still just 19.
Xavier O’Neill: C
Just 18 years old. Has played nine games in the WAFL for steady results. Highly thought of by the Eagles and will get time if he continues to work at it.
Brodie Riach: C
Basketball convert whose age (21), size (189cm) and skill set made him appealing to the Eagles. Has played eight WAFL games but it is probably too soon to know if there is more there.
Patrick Bines: C
Like Riach, a basketball convert. At 196cm he is a good size and is still just 20. He is a good athlete and he has a decent, if underdeveloped, skill set. Has played just one WAFL game so far.
Yet to play
Nic Naitanui: Due back a week or two after the bye. Has the potential to turn a good midfield into a great one but is coming off a second knee reconstruction. Will be the X-factor the Eagles will hope can lift them from fifth currently back to the top in September.
 

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RoCo summing things up beautifully as he so often does.

The AFL media can be a voracious beast at times, always searching relentlessly for the next great narrative to devour.

Sometimes there just aren't that many stories around, particularly during the bye rounds, and that chase becomes even more difficult. It means some fairly long bows can be drawn. Like this supposed crisis or that.

And this week's, along with the usual band of AFL coaches under pressure, appears to be the state of Victorian clubs, eight out of 10 of whom are currently consigned to the bottom half of the ladder, the top eight comprising six non-Victorian teams along with Geelong and Collingwood.

Monday's Herald-Sun summed it up thus. "Makes for worrying viewing". "It is a real concern". "It amounts to one sick state of football". I'd sum those sweeping generalisations up thus: No it doesn't. No it isn't. And no it doesn't.
 

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