Is the 'most open ever season' actually boring?

[Rion]

I actually agree with this. Obviously the top 8 is set but more than that I reckon we can write a bunch of the 8 (North, WB and West Coast) off as real premiership threats. It's a bit sad that for another year the premiership is going to be won by one of Geelong, Sydney or Hawthorn.

 

[blueiris]

I actually agree with this. Obviously the top 8 is set but more than that I reckon we can write a bunch of the 8 (North, WB and West Coast) off as real premiership threats. It's a bit sad that for another year the premiership is going to be won by one of Geelong, Sydney or Hawthorn.

Our only hope is for an Adelaide vs GWS grand final that might make me interested in watching it this year

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think it's a pretty exciting season so far, so many possibilities, a lot of big and close games. My only gripe is Hawthorn continually winning games they really should not (though in a lot of cases the other teams lose, it almost seems Hawthorn have luck on their side), and the fact that Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney are in the mix. I think the Eagles probably won't win the flag but I'm hoping it's ANYONE but those three.

 

[Smithdogmaddog]

I think it's a pretty exciting season so far, so many possibilities, a lot of big and close games. My only gripe is Hawthorn continually winning games they really should not (though in a lot of cases the other teams lose, it almost seems Hawthorn have luck on their side), and the fact that Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney are in the mix. I think the Eagles probably won't win the flag but I'm hoping it's ANYONE but those three.

If it happens once or twice its luck. If it happens 4 times in 13 rounds i think there's a bit more than luck, hawthorn players often mention in the media they train heavily in preseason on situations that make them better in tight finishes. If you look back to 2011 we lost a heap of close games, heaps of close losses to the cats and the 2011 prelim against collingwood 2012 gf against the swans. From that point on clarko focused on how to improve this. I didnt hear any one coming out saying how unlucky we were back then when other teams had superior systems and game management. Now we are on the other side of the coin we are lucky. To be fair to most peoole who dont look at it deeper and have an indepth understanding of hawthorn i can see how they would wrongly say it has been luck or umpires or some other crap.

 

[Bokonon]

If it happens once or twice its luck. If it happens 4 times in 13 rounds i think there's a bit more than luck, hawthorn players often mention in the media they train heavily in preseason on situations that make them better in tight finishes. If you look back to 2011 we lost a heap of close games, heaps of close losses to the cats and the 2011 prelim against collingwood 2012 gf against the swans. From that point on clarko focused on how to improve this. I didnt hear any one coming out saying how unlucky we were back then when other teams had superior systems and game management. Now we are on the other side of the coin we are lucky. To be fair to most peoole who dont look at it deeper and have an indepth understanding of hawthorn i can see how they would wrongly say it has been luck or umpires or some other crap.

Have you considered at all that the AFL world has interests other than Hawthorn? This thread is about this year.

 

[PerthBoy86]

If it happens once or twice its luck. If it happens 4 times in 13 rounds i think there's a bit more than luck, hawthorn players often mention in the media they train heavily in preseason on situations that make them better in tight finishes. If you look back to 2011 we lost a heap of close games, heaps of close losses to the cats and the 2011 prelim against collingwood 2012 gf against the swans. From that point on clarko focused on how to improve this. I didnt hear any one coming out saying how unlucky we were back then when other teams had superior systems and game management. Now we are on the other side of the coin we are lucky. To be fair to most peoole who dont look at it deeper and have an indepth understanding of hawthorn i can see how they would wrongly say it has been luck or umpires or some other crap.

That's true, I don't deny Hawthorn are good when it's tight, and Clarko and their coaching team are a bunch of smart cookies. They probably deal a lot with the psychology of it. Last Friday night against North, North should've won it, but their inaccuracy cost them. Ben Brown was a real disappointment. But then again IF North had been more accurate one wonders if the Hawks would've turned it up a notch. You have to admit though that there have been some very questionable umpiring decisions, that might lead one to believe it's not simply purely skill.

 

[milhouse1]

I think it will be a great final series, but if the gap between 8 and 9 is maintained, that bye week at the end of the regular season is gonna feel extra long. Everyone will be hanging out for finals to finally start, and delaying it that extra week will really drag it out.

 

[Cudi_420]

Come end of the season I think it'll tighten up. If Melbourne beats Adelaide at the MCG next week and then the Eagles the week after -- unlikely to win both but possible -- they could be top 8 in 14 days. We've seen North lose 4 of 5. We saw Richmond beat Sydney. Adelaide has won 5 on the trot. Port is inconsistent but on a good day could push a good side. Geelong's loses to Pies and Blues shows they are beatable. Sydney got smashed by the Giants, but the Giants struggled to get over the line against Essendon. Richmond beat Sydney, Melbourne smashed Richmond, Sydney smashed Melbourne.

On any good day, any team can beat any other team.

What you'll see in the next few weeks is Port, Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne, Eagles, teams vying for those 6-8th spots, take their game to another level. They have to.

I think we're set for a cracking second half to the year.

 

[Markfs]

If you're only considering the football played then that's one thing. However, a huge part of the fanbase are also interested in the various controversies that the media and the clubs can manage to generate.

I'm a collingwood supporter and I haven't had much joy in the last week but non-Pie supporters must have got a lot of joy on booting Eddie between the legs after his own-goal on Queens birthday. How can that be boring?

 

[Mr_Moogle]

It's hard to be bored when the side you support is going well.

I do have my usual yearly frustrations with the AFL, Umpiring Dept. etc.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

The reason its hard to win outside the top 4 is you have to beat 4 quality teams in a row with at least 2 being away from home unless your fortunate enough to draw a team from the same state in the prelim final.

Non victorian teams i beleive have a significant advantage in making the top 4 with 11 genuine home games. The crows in 97 and 98 didnt seem too disadvantaged by having to play the GF at the G, crowd is pretty much split 33% for each team and the rest corporate so it's nothing like the imposing atmosphere of a prelim.

You're seriously suggesting that travelling interstate 10 times a year is more favourable than travelling interstate for 4-5 games?

 

[marty36]

50/50 leaning towards adelaide at AO.

Yeah right, I only asked you to be honest!

But then again you do want to back up your argument

The question should be what would a bookie take on an exotic bet to work out the real answer!

 

[ok.crows]

Lets just assume Adelaide and Geelong are of equal strength id obviously prefer geelong at the G but the point is it is more likely for the crows to finish top 4 given a similar fixture as Geelong.

Actually, due to the difference in shape between a steep s-curve and a shallow s-curve, it is more likely for Geelong to finish top 4 if the teams are equal strength.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Lets just assume Adelaide and Geelong are of equal strength id obviously prefer geelong at the G but the point is it is more likely for the crows to finish top 4 given a similar fixture as Geelong. Geelong is the anamoly in the Vic market as they do have a genuine home ground at Simmonds.

Port in 2014 and the crows in 2013 were handed a super easy fixture in which top 4 was almost guaranteed with home ground advantage unfortunately for them they didnt make top 2 because they werent good enough and had to play a prelim in Melbourne. Both teams with a harder fixture dropped off significantly the next year.

For starters, it was 2012 for the Crows, not 2013.

Secondly, the Crows did finish second. They then lost a home qualifying final against Sydney, which is why they had to play a Prelim away.

So home ground advantage didn't help with that.

Personally, I think people get causality wrong in regards to top 4 and winning the flag.

Most people claim it's the double chance of the top 4, the week off for the prelim and/or home finals that are the reason why top 4 teams invariably make the GF.

I think it's because the teams that finish in the top 4 do so because they are generally the best 4 teams that year. So it's no surprise that those teams make the GF, because they are normally a cut above the teams outside the top 4.

This season could be an exception due to the closeness of the top 8 teams.

 

[brucetiki]

Port in 2014 and the crows in 2013 were handed a super easy fixture in which top 4 was almost guaranteed with home ground advantage unfortunately for them they didnt make top 2 because they werent good enough and had to play a prelim in Melbourne. Both teams with a harder fixture dropped off significantly the next year.

You do realise the Crows didn't make the finals in 2013...

 

[Smithdogmaddog]

You do realise the Crows didn't make the finals in 2013...

2012, 2013 harder fixture due to being in top 6 hence a massive drop off.

 

[footyfan1978]

Only if Jarrad Waite does something stupid in the PF and gets himself suspended like he so often did at Carlton

hahaha.
God I hope not, that would be cruel on himself.
I would enjoy seeing old fellas Boomer, Petrie, Firrito, Dal Santo, Waite and Wells holding the cup aloft together for some reason.
Not sure how old Higgins is too but it would give me the most joy without my own side in it to see that bunch of guys enjoy the ultimate success together.

 

[WWSD]

If history is any guide, Adelaide will win the 2016 Premiership

Geelong - 2010
OUT: Gary Ablett
IN: 2011 Premiership

Hawthorn - 2013
OUT: Lance Franklin
IN: 2014 Premiership

Adelaide - 2015
OUT: Patrick Dangerfield
IN: 2016 Premiership?

 

[ok.crows]

What you'll see in the next few weeks is Port, Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne, Eagles, teams vying for those 6-8th spots, take their game to another level. They have to.

Adelaide are in 6th spot, percentage only off 5th, and since North have the bye to come a win by Adelaide against Melbourne next week might get them into the top 4. Adelaide are three games plus percentage ahead of Port and Melbourne, four games plus massive percentage ahead of Richmond. Adelaide have only two games left against other top 8 opponents, one of which is at AO against WCE whom Adelaide have already beaten once in Perth. In rounds 2 and 3 (when Adelaide were still finding their feet to some extent) Adelaide beat Port by 58 points and Richmond by 36 points. Adelaide have not yet lost a game to any side outside the top 8 so far this season. Adelaide are in good form (5 consecutive wins) and they have a very short injury list.

IMO Adelaide are firmly in the mix for top 4. To count them in the same group as Port, Melbourne and Richmond vying for 6-8 is fanciful at best, and it severely underestimates Adelaide's actual form IMO.

If you want to put some additional team at risk of dropping out of the top 8 as well as the Eagles, perhaps you should consider North or Bulldogs.

 

[sportsmaniac89]

As a Freo supporter, it got really difficult around Round 5 and was a confirmed catastrophe not long after. When your teams season is over, there's not exactly a lot to get excited about

 

[Cudi_420]

Adelaide are in 6th spot, percentage only off 5th, and since North have the bye to come a win by Adelaide against Melbourne next week might get them into the top 4. Adelaide are three games plus percentage ahead of Port and Melbourne, four games plus massive percentage ahead of Richmond. Adelaide have only two games left against other top 8 opponents, one of which is at AO against WCE whom Adelaide have already beaten once in Perth. In rounds 2 and 3 (when Adelaide were still finding their feet to some extent) Adelaide beat Port by 58 points and Richmond by 36 points. Adelaide have not yet lost a game to any side outside the top 8 so far this season. Adelaide are in good form (5 consecutive wins) and they have a very short injury list.

IMO Adelaide are firmly in the mix for top 4. To count them in the same group as Port, Melbourne and Richmond vying for 6-8 is fanciful at best, and it severely underestimates Adelaide's actual form IMO.

If you want to put some additional team at risk of dropping out of the top 8 as well as the Eagles, perhaps you should consider North or Bulldogs.

True, but I didn't mean for it to sound like I was underselling Adelaide. But this really just again proves how nonsensical the OP's post is. Teams outside the top 8 are still within reach, and Adelaide could either drop out or be top 4 in a 2-3 week period (former being very unlikely, but could happen, hence why I mentioned North going 1-4 over the past five weeks, just to highlight how you could be up one week and a month later get smashed by a team you beat earlier in the season, as North have done against you guys). I would expect you to get over Melbourne, although we're hard to read and at the MCG you just don't know. I would suspect that at around $2.40 last time I checked Melbourne is a good bet atm, but Adelaide is understandably favourites because, as you said, they're playing top 4 quality football and are within reach of the top 4.

I guess my point was that with only 2-4 games separating teams between 1st and 10th, there's still a lot of football to go and a lot of changes to happen. You would hope as a Crows fan that you're not peaking too early (as I think North did). I doubt the top 8 will change much as per the teams that are in there atm, but you still have teams that could swing either way absolutely needing to play at the top of their game. I wouldn't think Melbourne v Adelaide would be an easy win for either team, which is my point about the OP being wrong that it's a boring season, because you'll have teams within the top 10-12 (you have to factor in Carlton after beating the Cats) all being capable of beating anyone on any given day.

 

[ok.crows]

I guess my point was that with only 2-4 games separating teams between 1st and 10th, there's still a lot of football to go and a lot of changes to happen. You would hope as a Crows fan that you're not peaking too early (as I think North did). I doubt the top 8 will change much as per the teams that are in there atm, but you still have teams that could swing either way absolutely needing to play at the top of their game. I wouldn't think Melbourne v Adelaide would be an easy win for either team, which is my point about the OP being wrong that it's a boring season, because you'll have teams within the top 10-12 (you have to factor in Carlton after beating the Cats) all being capable of beating anyone on any given day.

I guess my point was that if you are looking for a set of teams that are vying for 6-8, why mention Adelaide when you could have said Bulldogs? Bulldogs have the same number of wins as Adelaide, their form is LWWWL compared to Adelaide WWWWW, Bulldogs have about 10% worse percentage, and Bulldogs play Sydney in Sydney next up, and after that they still have two more games to come against top 8 sides in North and Geelong.

 

[Crankyhawk]

http://www.thegreenfieldpost.com.au/sport/afl/opinion-gfp/2016/5/footys-haves-and-have-nots/

In a season where any number of teams can win the premiership, the top eight is seemingly already set in it's place. Could this end up being the dullest AFL season in recent memory?




The 2016 AFL season has become the most boring and predictable since the competition expanded to a top eight.

In no other season since the top eight began in 1994 has there been a two game break between the top eight sides and the ninth placed sides, as there is as present, at this stage of the season.

Not only are the Adelaide Crows currently two games and near 20 percent better off than ninth-placed Port Adelaide after Round 13 but even worse, the Crows still have a game in hand courtesy of having had their mid-season bye over the past weekend.

Port Adelaide's surprise loss to a suddenly revitalised Fremantle in Perth on the weekend ended any remote mystery about the make-up of this year's finalists.

The fact that the hopelessly inconsistent Port Adelaide sit ninth in the first place also indicates the huge gulf between the top eight sides and the rest of the competition.

Make no mistake the eight finalists playing in September this year will beGeelong, Sydney, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS, Western Bulldogs,West Coast and Adelaide.

They are simply a class above their other 10 rivals and the only interest left in the remainder of this very average season is just which order the top eight will end up and with it the added benefits of a top two, top four and top six finish.

But for those follow the other ten clubs, well the best I can say is at least you have the Olympic Games to look forward to in August.

If you want further proof that a finals berth is a lost cause for the ten battlers then consider this worrying stat for those that love to see an even competition and an exciting end to the home and away season - a la the famous 1987 climax.

There have been just four matches this season - I repeat just FOUR where a side from the bottom ten has beaten one of the top eight sides

Incredibly ladder leader Geelong has fallen victim in two of them - againstCollingwood and Carlton in successive weeks in Rounds 9 and 10.

The other two were Melbourne's win over GWS way back in Round 1 andRichmond's memorable win with a goal after the siren against Sydney in Round 8.

That is not many upsets in a competition that the Anti Fun League promotes as any side being capable of beating another on any given day with the advent of free agency only making the gulf worse.

The impact of free agency is obvious when you look even closer at the make-up of the eight sides that have all but secured their September passage.

Four of them in Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and West Coast have already combined to win ten of the past 11 premierships between them - a worrying trend that further highlights the gap between the haves and have nots of the competition.

And another in GWS is a totally manufactured club that no-one cares about outside of AFL headquarters and has had their success gifted to them as a result of ridiculously generous recruiting concessions.

That leaves the Western Bulldogs bid for a first flag since 1954 and NorthMelbourne's bid to send-off the legendary Brent Harvey - soon to become the games' record holder - in style with a premiership, as the only true romantic footy stories left to hopefully unfold this season.

But I am sure the Anti Fun League will be too busy to worry about the situation and helping struggling clubs such as the Brisbane Lions.

After all they have their new women's league to focus on (I can just see the fans queuing up in February in 40 degree heat to go and support that) as well as whatever politically correct fad they want to throw their support behind this week.

No, it's just the bottom 10 play like poo.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Adelaide Geelong grand final watching dangers face as Tex raises the cup would be priceless.

Surely wouldn't be as good as it was watching your boys cry in 2011.

 

[MWPP]

Boring for supporters of teams outside the top 8 (but what's new)
But more interesting than usual for the rest of us