Preview Isaac Smith- The Perfect Sub?

[obscura]

With the new rule in place, teams will be looking to exploit the sub rule tactically as well as if injury strikes. Many on Bigfooty have suggested using a utility that can be placed anywhere, to fill any role with near full fitness. I am of the view however that for a sub to be effective, they need to play a role in turning the tide of a match, or exploiting momentum already gained. Hawthorn have a few players that do this already (Buddy, Rioli, Bateman), but these players are always going to be first-team regulars.

This is why Isaac Smith suits the role perfectly for us.

He can break the lines swiftly and exploit the sluggishness of the opposition with quick bursts of pace and agility. In ten minutes a three goal lead in the third quarter could turn into six or seven. Now the difference between a borderline defensible and comfortable lead is huge when it comes down to it. Think of how many close games last year could have been changed with a fresh Isaac Smith streaming down the wing with pace, feeding it to Buddy/Rough for a goal.

Moreover, he may not yet have the conditioning and endurance to run out a full game with his style of play and may not be of use to the team without that capacity to burn an opponent for speed on the run.

So when it comes down to it, Isaac Smith suits the new sub role perfectly.

Any thoughts?

 

[eldorado]

I think the sub will have to be a utility player, as you won't know what kind of player you will have to replace; a tall, a runner, an inside mid, etc.

I think the idea of the sub as a tactical move is overstated; unless there is an injury, the sub will be lucky to see any game time before the last quarter.

We need to stop thinking of the 22. It's the 21 now, with an emergency who can come on during a game.

 

[madhawksfan]

I following your logic, but I'm not sure we have enough pace in the side to use Smith as a sub. Other than Bateman, Young, Rioli and Birchall we don't have a huge amount of pace/line breakers and if Smith is going to be in the side he is in the starting 21 for mine. My ideal bench would contain one inside mid (Sewell, Shiels), one outside mid (Smith, Birchall, Savage) and one utility who can play midfield/back or forward (Lewis, Ellis, Whitecross) with the sub also being able to play a number of roles.

I believe guys like Whitecross, Ellis, Savage, Puopolo, Morton, Osborne and Ladson are more ideal as the sub IMO as they can play forward, back or midfield. Without wanting to pigeon hole or underestimate Smith, he looks like a pure outside midfielders to me and with a number of our mids being termed "slow" he must be in the starting 21 for mine.

 

[Rioli magic]

I'm hoping Smith will be too good to be the sub - ie in our best 21.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Disagree with you obscura, although great discussion thread.

Smith's going to have to be in our starting 21 for mine if we are going to improve. So is Bruce. I'd actually suggest that Bruce is already in our top 8 - 12 players anyway.

I'd rather see the sub as a utility to cover any injuries, or someone who would normally be in our best 18, but is not capable of running out a full game (either due to injury or having played a lot and is carrying a niggle or just tired); hence, they will be given a 1/2 or a 1/4 to get some match fitness back or to reduce their physical workload for a week or so.

IMO Whitecross would be a good utility sub as he can play down back and can play taller than he is. He can also play across half forward or rotating through the midfield. In addition, I don't see him in our best 20. If Morton takes a big step forward he'd be another one that could play in a variety of roles. Possibly Ellis too, who I don't see in our best 18.

Using young guys as subs except for maybe their first game doesn't hold much merit for mine. You want them to acclimatise to the speed of the game as quickly as possible and having a prolonged period where they only get a 1/4 or so - typically at the end of a game when the speed of the game is at its slowest - won't achieve that.

 

[Number 24]

I'm hoping Smith will be too good to be the sub - ie in our best 21.

I wonder if he will be in the senior side before the mid point of the season. It is a big step up from VFL to senior AFL standard. Smith was quick and flashy when he played senior VFL in 2010 but he also went missing for substantail periods of those games

I think he has that dreadful tag..."potential"...and may need a period in the BHH seniors to develop before he plays AFL.

I have watched him at training and he can really motor along at speed and with impressive endurance. He seems to have a decent kick for distance. But we have not seen him in any competitive situations yet.

I'm not doubting the kid. I just want to see more of him in a game before I pencil him in as an AFL player for 2011

 

[Rioli magic]

I wonder if he will be in the senior side before the mid point of the season. It is a big step up from VFL to senior AFL standard. Smith was quick and flashy when he played senior VFL in 2010 but he also went missing for substantail periods of those games

I think he has that dreadful tag..."potential"...and may need a period in the BHH seniors to develop before he plays AFL.

I have watched him at training and he can really motor along at speed and with impressive endurance. He seems to have a decent kick for distance. But we have not seen him in any competitive situations yet.

I'm not doubting the kid. I just want to see more of him in a game before I pencil him in as an AFL player for 2011

Yeah, absolutely, I don't want to just give him a game based on that dreadful tag, and that's why I said 'hoping' rather than expecting. Hopefully the NAB cup gives a better indication, if he needs game time BHH will probably be better than the sub initially.

My initial thought on the Sub was Morton, and I think it may have even saved him at the end of last season. He needs to improve no doubt, but I think he has the right attributes to be an option.

Maybe the sub will just simply be the 22nd player? Worry about positional changes etc when and if they occur, just pick the best 21 you have, and the 22nd best as the sub? Not worry about trying to be fancy or find something to exploit, just pick the best team you can, wouldn't be the worst idea.

 

[HeHateMe]

i like the idea of using the sup as a tactical move more then useing it as a full blown replacement.

the team can always be manipulated, for example.

HF Osborne, Buddy, Rioli
FF Pup, Rough, Shoey

lets say rough goes down shoey goes to FF and rioli spends the rest of the game at his feet, letting smith come on and play HF/W.

or lets say Gilham goes down shoey goes to FB and smith comes on and runs the team off there feet from HF/W.

or no key posts get injured but shoey or another utility isn't making an impact smith comes on and adds another dimension to the team.

i think it is much more likely that we will play 1 or 2 extra utility's in the team so they can cover injures and match ups and use an impact player like smith as a sub to run teams of there feet then the other way around.

 

[eldorado]

i like the idea of using the sup as a tactical move more then useing it as a full blown replacement.

But once you use it, the removed player is out of the game, not to return, and the sub becomes part of the 21.

What happens if you get an injury after you've made a 'tactical' sub?

Then you have only two players on the interchange bench, 50% worse off in terms of available substitutions.

I maintain clubs will be VERY wary of using it 'tactically' before the last quarter, if at all

 

[obscura]

If we are in a good position mid year (entrenched in the top 4) I would like to see this strategy tried, as the reward far outweighs the risk.

 

[eldorado]

If we are in a good position mid year (entrenched in the top 4) I would like to see this strategy tried, as the reward far outweighs the risk.

I disagree.

The idea that a supersub will come on and turn "in 10 minutes a three goal lead in the third quarter ... into six or seven" is rather fanciful.

If that is what would happen, of course, it would be worth doing. The odds of it happening are minimal.

What is not open to conjecture is the fact that, if you get a match ending injury after making a sub, you are 50% down on available interchanges

 

[obscura]

Yes, the odds are minimal. I'm not saying it will happen (3 goal burst) but it is more likely than say our 20th or 21st player turning it on for a quarter and finding some untapped endurance in the last quarter. This is only in the last quarter or late in the 3rd, and it doesn't need to be a strategy used that often, just if the coaches see the need to turn the momentum.

And the best player from my perspective to do that is Isaac Smith. If however, there is a required player coming back from injury or someone like Big Max is finding his feet at AFL level, you would never consider risking this strategy.

 

[savagelunchbox]

pfft very fanciful thought. El Dorado is correct in the fact that it'll only be used in the 1st 3 Quarters as a injury replacement sub. What would be the point of using the sub in the 2nd Q for ur '10 min burst' if a player goes down just before half time? With that player down injured, the lack of available rotations will likely result in 3 goals to the opposition and virtually counteracting the whole point of result of the '10 min burst' player.

Lets be realistic here people. The idea of it being using as a serious tactic is overstated. You won't even see Collingwood use it for a non-injury sub if they're playing a poor team like WCE.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Jordan Lisle would be a sweet sub imo.

 

[Brant]

I will readily admit that I am extremely optimistic about Smith without seeing him play, but I hope he gets a game as a starter, on a HFF.

Savage is the guy I want as the sub & for pretty much the same reasons as the OP suggested Smith would do. I just think Smith may have more impact over a full game than Savage might at this stage.

 

[HawksLore11]

Lets hope hes the perfect player! He hasnt played a game yet, stating the obvious i know! But we wont know for at least a couple of months!The wait is killing me!! At this time of the year its always the unknowns! Will Morton take the next step? Will Schoenmaker make the grade and fill a KPD? Will Savage and Shiels take the next step and bolster the midfield? Will Puopolo and Bruce slot in and be contributors? Will Murphy continue to improve? Have Bateman, Osborne and Guerra got one last dance left in them? Can Buddy be that player he was 3 years ago? Will Sewell, Lewis and Ellis revitalise and recapture the spark that theyve shown? Will we have a game plan to beat most sides? Depending on those questions and many other variables that will determine on how our subs play out!

 

[Roger Rogerson]

I wonder if he will be in the senior side before the mid point of the season. It is a big step up from VFL to senior AFL standard. Smith was quick and flashy when he played senior VFL in 2010 but he also went missing for substantail periods of those games

I think he has that dreadful tag..."potential"...and may need a period in the BHH seniors to develop before he plays AFL.

I have watched him at training and he can really motor along at speed and with impressive endurance. He seems to have a decent kick for distance. But we have not seen him in any competitive situations yet.

I'm not doubting the kid. I just want to see more of him in a game before I pencil him in as an AFL player for 2011

This was always the risk in drafting him as there was very little exposed form compared to those who have come through the under 16s and under 18s who the recruiters have been watching for 3 or 4 years and know their ball winning habits, how they handle tags, etc. Hence is a draft risk because I think we know what his strengths are (and they are great) it is his weaknesses that we know less about and are potentially the deal breaker.

But what we do know is he has an intelligent football brain, good composure, excellent speed and evasiveness and a good tank. Haven't seen enough of him to be confident that his kicking is AFL class.

He has carved up VFL level and looked a class above in big games. There are only a handful of players on our AFL list who are equipped to do what he has done at VFL level and these guys are our top end AFL players.

The caution is that he was in a very very dominant side so had freedom to run wherever he wanted so in a lesser side will he be shown up for being a downhill skier? Whilst he did squeeze out a few clever handballs in tight in his youtube clips I thought that once he was tackled he was easily ragdolled so he may struggle in contested situations. Plus is he another of our left footers than can only run into space in one direction to get on their left? The saving grace is his pace - with pace you can overcome a lot of limitations in your game just by being able to get yourself out of trouble before you have to think about getting rid of the pill. As N24 says until we see him in games against AFL players he is an unknown...

But I hope we back him in early in the season in the senior side. He looks to have more ability than most of our fringe players and more pace than 95% of our list so letting him develop at AFL level rather than VFL will help to fast-track his development. Unless of course there are huge glaring holes in his game which mean he is a genuine liability at AFL level - it will hurt us bigtime if this is the case as we need to find 3 or 4 new players in 2011 to genuinely challenge and as our first draft pick Smith has to be one of them. He is a very exciting prospect.

 

[HawksLore11]

This was always the risk in drafting him as there was very little exposed form compared to those who have come through the under 16s and under 18s who the recruiters have been watching for 3 or 4 years and know their ball winning habits, how they handle tags, etc. Hence is a draft risk because I think we know what his strengths are (and they are great) it is his weaknesses that we know less about and are potentially the deal breaker.

But what we do know is he has an intelligent football brain, good composure, excellent speed and evasiveness and a good tank. Haven't seen enough of him to be confident that his kicking is AFL class.

He has carved up VFL level and looked a class above in big games. There are only a handful of players on our AFL list who are equipped to do what he has done at VFL level and these guys are our top end AFL players.

The caution is that he was in a very very dominant side so had freedom to run wherever he wanted so in a lesser side will he be shown up for being a downhill skier? Whilst he did squeeze out a few clever handballs in tight in his youtube clips I thought that once he was tackled he was easily ragdolled so he may struggle in contested situations. Plus is he another of our left footers than can only run into space in one direction to get on their left? The saving grace is his pace - with pace you can overcome a lot of limitations in your game just by being able to get yourself out of trouble before you have to think about getting rid of the pill. As N24 says until we see him in games against AFL players he is an unknown...

But I hope we back him in early in the season in the senior side. He looks to have more ability than most of our fringe players and more pace than 95% of our list so letting him develop at AFL level rather than VFL will help to fast-track his development. Unless of course there are huge glaring holes in his game which mean he is a genuine liability at AFL level - it will hurt us bigtime if this is the case as we need to find 3 or 4 new players in 2011 to genuinely challenge and as our first draft pick Smith has to be one of them. He is a very exciting prospect.

Great post! Always enjoy reading your posts informative and seem to hit the mark on most occasions! Do you think RR that Smith needs to add more weight to his frame? Hes only just turned 22 so that might happen naturally! But he may need to, just to hold his feet in the contest!?

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

He was certainly a risk. I have not seen him play but some have said that he is the kind of guy that floats in and out of games. That could be age and inexperience though. Would be nice for him to be the next Peter Matera.

I don't know, but we are due for a pick that dominates. Since Rioli, we've hardly progressed at the draft table.

 

[Brant]

As RR suggests, there is a risk (be it low or high we don't know) that Smith may be the downhill skier type but personally I don't mind that we have finally drafted an outside guy with awesome pace (& huge kick!). We have plenty of grinders & plenty of extractor types - it is about time we rewarded our grunts with some polish so some of their hard work pays off in the way of forward thrust instead of static toiling which inevitably ends up going backwards.

Now Smith won't revolutionize our team by himself but a fit Young; 3rd year Savage; & Bateman at least partially released from the tag role (by Bruce / Sewell) means we have quick running options for run & carry. It helps that 3 of those 4 can kick 60m too!

* for the record I think Smith can be more than just outside pace but if that is all he offers in his 1st year then we are on the way.

 

[Bardo State]

One thing that I have wondered about smith is can he break into our 21(2)? I gave the 22 a go and found that injury free, we may only be able to fit one of Smith, Savage or Shiels into our side.

 

[Brant]

One thing that I have wondered about smith is can he break into our 21(2)? I gave the 22 a go and found that injury free, we may only be able to fit one of Smith, Savage or Shiels into our side.

Same - I had Smith on the HFF.

Actually I think Savage got my sub spot - will have to look up that old 22 for Round 1 thread.

 

[eldorado]

Mmmmmmm, the perfect sub....

 

[Roger Rogerson]

One thing that I have wondered about smith is can he break into our 21(2)? I gave the 22 a go and found that injury free, we may only be able to fit one of Smith, Savage or Shiels into our side.

I reckon he is a certainty to play all year. In fact unless he is completely hopeless (which clearly he isnt) he has to be in our side to balance our side with outside runners. Agree Brant that I am not all that fussed if he is a bit of a downhill skier as really we don't have any. If he can kick goals as a downhill skier no problem at my end. Having a competitive ruck division will be important for Isaac so he can get on the end of the work of our engine room. If the supply dries up it will be interesting to see what his game is like - I have a feeling he will find the pill as a forward pretty effectively so he should be an asset both on a wing and up forward.

He looks to have more ability than most of our fringe players such as Ellis, Whitecross, Morton etc. Given our track record at the selection table if he is rated by the selectors he will be given a free ride in the side.

 

[Hawkzzz]

Smith did not had a great amount of time to get used to how his team mates played, along with the game plan, at VFL level. Having a full pre season with us will be great for his endurance but equally important for him to understand our game plan and what the coaches want from him.

Including the game where he smashed the Box Hill Hawks, it was not only his elite speed that stood out. It was his clean ball handling skills. Picking up the ball at pace and finding a team mate in congestion were extremely impressive. He hasn't had much time at senior level nor training alongside AFL players and coaches. The upside of Smith can't be underestimated.

As has been said, he has a good football brain, speed, excellent ball handling skills and a very mature character. Of course any player who hasn't played AFL is drafted with an element of risk. What he brings to the table, though, is a heck of a lot to work with. He ticks a lot of boxes, but time will tell if he can become the player we hope for. Personally, I think he'll be a very good pick up.