Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[PrancingPony]

I agree.

It was so obvious that Connolly wasn't up to the job and we wasted our first real opportunity for a flag. He was replaced by Harvey who was also terrible. The same mistake is being repeated here with JLo.

Our list is so good that it would take a disaster for us to miss the top 10. If the majority of our list stay fit we'll be top 6. Then the baord and Garlo will keep backing JLo for a couple more years then we'll be starting again with a new coach in 2029 or 2030 when the guys who are mid 20's now will be pushing 30 and then we'll be rebuilding again.

If JLo gets us to a prelim this year and proves me wrong then great. But the benchmark should be set really high this year otherwise he needs to go IMO.

To think there's a group of Fremantle fans who still think Harvey was hard done by and was a good coach.

Pavlich's book is a massive eye-opener on just how little Harvey knew on how to coach.

 

[dominguez]

We don't have a top shelf defence. Our best KPD is injured and the back ups are shaky. Our captain is no longer played as the lock down KPD. Chapman has confidence issues. Ryan isn't fit and we are trying to get McVee and Walker to feel comfortable.

We will be pretty good down there, however, our KPD list would be in the bottom five in the league. We need improvement from Davies or Draper in a big way. I doubt they will get the games this year to provide it.

Is it the players or the coaching though? Clark has improved but the rest of our backs have stagnated or gone backwards.

Look at the way mediocre guys in 2010-2011 became really good AFL footballers in 2012-2103 under RTB.

Maybe Chapman, Draper, Davies, Walker, Simpson just need a better coach?

 

[dominguez]

If he plays like he has in the past he's 100% in our best 10 players IMO.

Having said that less than 50% game time isn't good enough. The alternative is Mason Cox now not Liam Reidy.

He should have played WAFL last week. We'll find out tomorrow evening if he's progressed enough to make a decent impact.

It's unlikely that we'll ever see 2021 Sean Darcy again though? His body has been through too much and he's 28 in June.

It was just such an obvious decision to play Cox and let the under done Darcy play for Peel. I think we beat Geelong with Cox but lets say the match played out the same way with Cox and we lost by 10 points. No one would have said you should have played Darcy. Now match committee have piled the pressure on themselves as well as big Sean.

 

[dominguez]

Fair enough, I see what you're saying. Although I imagine a lot of the players wouldn't have signed long term deals with the club if they weren't happy with the overall direction.

But you are right.

We've probably all had a boss who is a lovely guy and everyone likes him and he puts on beers on Friday etc but if the company isn't making money his business is in trouble. JLo is that nice boss that everyone likes but instead of profits his business is wins and losses. Quite clearly he's not the man to take us to our first cup but I hope I'm wrong.

 

[dominguez]

To think there's a group of Fremantle fans who still think Harvey was hard done by and was a good coach.

Pavlich's book is a massive eye-opener on just how little Harvey knew on how to coach.

Wasn't there a march in protest from the train station after he got sacked? Bizarre.

That On The Couch interview of Harvey was embarrassing.

Great coaches usually have an aura, they ooze leadership. Connolly didn't have it, he had the personality of a used car salesman. Harvey didn't have it, he came across as a low IQ bogan. And JLo doesn't have it, he comes across as a lanky country lad who is shy and introverted. Bet he's a nice guy and a good assistant coach but if we lost to Melbourne and sacked him (which won't happen) would rival clubs looking for a senior coach be calling him? I don't think so.

 

[Kram]

To think there's a group of Fremantle fans who still think Harvey was hard done by and was a good coach.

Pavlich's book is a massive eye-opener on just how little Harvey knew on how to coach.

What does Fremante stand for?

Whatever it wants to.

 

[Kram]

At least the Lions were gaining invaluable finals experience to help battle-harden them while they were losing those finals.

Those two years we missed finals completely were so costly for the development of this group.

2004 and 2005 say hello.

 

[Docker82]

It's unlikely that we'll ever see 2021 Sean Darcy again though? His body has been through too much and he's 28 in June.

It was just such an obvious decision to play Cox and let the under done Darcy play for Peel. I think we beat Geelong with Cox but lets say the match played out the same way with Cox and we lost by 10 points. No one would have said you should have played Darcy. Now match committee have piled the pressure on themselves as well as big Sean.

Think when got a player that was bloody good a few years ago you try get them right (2021 was his best year but he's had good years since).

Teams that win premierships don't give up on too many injured players. They get most of them performing at their best.

That doesn't neccessarily change decisions made in the last two weeks around Darcy's fitness to play the relevant games of footy.

 

[Dockeroo]

Think when got a player that was bloody good a few years ago you try get them right (2021 was his best year but he's had good years since).

Teams that win premierships don't give up on too many injured players. They get most of them performing at their best.

That doesn't neccessarily change decisions made in the last two weeks around Darcy's fitness to play the relevant games of footy.

I think the club is paralysed by the fear of trading out an injury prone player that goes on to be a resilient robust player elsewhere.

I’m more and more every passing year of the belief that it’s nearly always better to cut your losses on these guys. In most circumstances they continue to be even more injury prone at the next club.

Perennially injured players are one of the biggest opportunity costs in list management.
The only counter argument is that Freo can’t really trade in any decent replacements not from WA.

 

[oldgoat]

Wasn't there a march in protest from the train station after he got sacked? Bizarre.

That On The Couch interview of Harvey was embarrassing.

Great coaches usually have an aura, they ooze leadership. Connolly didn't have it, he had the personality of a used car salesman. Harvey didn't have it, he came across as a low IQ bogan. And JLo doesn't have it, he comes across as a lanky country lad who is shy and introverted. Bet he's a nice guy and a good assistant coach but if we lost to Melbourne and sacked him (which won't happen) would rival clubs looking for a senior coach be calling him? I don't think so.

Funny Dom...I had you pegged as a country car salesman with a red mullet?
Oozing aura...?
When coaches have won a premiership they start oozing...hard to spot before then.

 

[E Shed]

One thing that rarely comes into these discussions is the list.

Clarkson is considered one of the great coaches of the modern era and he’s done nothing at North. Is it his fault? No, he’s had a terrible list to work with.

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

50

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

inherited one of the best teams of recent times and since then, due to their unique geographical location and creative salary cap management and probably the best football department in the league they’ve been able to trade in very good players and their drafting is elite.

In the same period that Carlton, Essendon and mostly St Kilda have been average to poor Hawks have won flags, rebuilt and are on track again.

Vic clubs & Brisbane reap players like Daicos(s) Sam Darcy, Ashcroft, Fletcher, Sydney get Heaney & Gulden, GC can bring in Petracca, JUH and 3 first round picks.

I think on the whole our football department & recruiting is above average and our team is hard to beat. We can take anyone on our day but give us a couple of free hit players like the ones above I listed & we could win the whole thing.

Does that mean JL is getting absolutely everything out of our list? No.

I think he’s doing a reasonable job with what we have to work with but it’s not a fair competition and we have to have absolutely everything go right just to be a chance.

 

[estibador]

2004 and 2005 say hello.

Yep the similarities are eerie... and concerning.

 

[Docker82]

I think the club is paralysed by the fear of trading out an injury prone player that goes on to be a resilient robust player elsewhere.

I’m more and more every passing year of the belief that it’s nearly always better to cut your losses on these guys. In most circumstances they continue to be even more injury prone at the next club.

Perennially injured players are one of the biggest opportunity costs in list management.
The only counter argument is that Freo can’t really trade in any decent replacements not from WA.

Seriously if we cut our losses with every player on our list this board has called injury prone our list would almost always be bottom six.

Injury prone players are frustrating but if those players win you games thet are worth having on your list 100%.

I think my main concern with Darcy is that the injuries impact his athleticism and/or overall usefullness these days even when he is as close as we can get him to 100% fit.

 

[poshman]

Is it the players or the coaching though? Clark has improved but the rest of our backs have stagnated or gone backwards.

Look at the way mediocre guys in 2010-2011 became really good AFL footballers in 2012-2103 under RTB.

Maybe Chapman, Draper, Davies, Walker, Simpson just need a better coach?

Probably both. They identified that we need more run from the back half, and we got McVee to help.

Pearce is an issue, both fitness and role. If he can't play lock down anymore his viability in a top four side is questionable.

A lot hinges on the fitness of Cox and the development of one of Davies, Draper or Murphy.

 

[Kram]

One thing that rarely comes into these discussions is the list.

Clarkson is considered one of the great coaches of the modern era and he’s done nothing at North. Is it his fault? No, he’s had a terrible list to work with.

Chris Scott inherited one of the best teams of recent times and since then, due to their unique geographical location and creative salary cap management and probably the best football department in the league they’ve been able to trade in very good players and their drafting is elite.

In the same period that Carlton, Essendon and mostly St Kilda have been average to poor Hawks have won flags, rebuilt and are on track again.

Vic clubs & Brisbane reap players like Daicos(s) Sam Darcy, Ashcroft, Fletcher, Sydney get Heaney & Gulden, GC can bring in Petracca, JUH and 3 first round picks.

I think on the whole our football department & recruiting is above average and our team is hard to beat. We can take anyone on our day but give us a couple of free hit players like the ones above I listed & we could win the whole thing.

Does that mean JL is getting absolutely everything out of our list? No.

I think he’s doing a reasonable job with what we have to work with but it’s not a fair competition and we have to have absolutely everything go right just to be a chance.

Maybe one could say there's a handful of well run and or advantaged teams at the top, with a few basketcases at the bottom. Then a big pack in the middle that we are obviously in.

So we need to nail everything off field with the resources we have to try and get right to the front of it.

 

[Barnabus]

I am currently on the fence with JLo. Think he does some stuff really well like problem solving and general game plan. I even like the fact he is calm and soft spoken, I think people essentially criticize him for not being an angry, arrogant ass.

Where I think he goes wrong is that he gets out coached too often. Sometimes by the best tactical coaches like Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

50

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

but also on occassion by less impressive coaches.

I would love to see him change a few things up when games aren't going well like Chapman or McVee to the wing, Amiss to play up the field or Clark into the middle. Just to change it up a bit. Also when Geelong blocked the middle of the ground up last week we couldn't seem to find a way around them. Need a better back up plan.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I agree.

It was so obvious that Connolly wasn't up to the job and we wasted our first real opportunity for a flag. He was replaced by Harvey who was also terrible. The same mistake is being repeated here with JLo.

Our list is so good that it would take a disaster for us to miss the top 10. If the majority of our list stay fit we'll be top 6. Then the baord and Garlo will keep backing JLo for a couple more years then we'll be starting again with a new coach in 2029 or 2030 when the guys who are mid 20's now will be pushing 30 and then we'll be rebuilding again.

If JLo gets us to a prelim this year and proves me wrong then great. But the benchmark should be set really high this year otherwise he needs to go IMO.

This is why I've accepted our lot with JL as coach. The bar has been lowered even further to 10th now, and that would be enough for the club to run it back. There's also very little chance this team finishes lower than 10th barring a total injury crisis. And to be frank, even if we did have a disaster year, Garlic/the board would still be adverse to making a change. He was pretty definitive about JL as a coach and the direction of the club last year at 4-5, moments before we got trashed by St Kilda. And to be fair we won a lot of games after that and had a pretty fun year - we weren't in contention for a flag though, we haven't been in any single year under JL, and I suspect we won't be this year either. But finals, or even just competing for them is good enough for the people running the place. Good crowds, good fan engagement, a few primetime games, > 50% win rate. That's enough. Of course they'd like a flag, but are unwilling to shift the ground under the team and take the risks required to go from a 5-10th team to a 1-4th team.

 

[Duz97]

Genuine chance for 6-7 coaches to get sacked this year
Voss nicks JL mini Ross Clarko and Brad Scott. Seems like the talent of available coaches is slim wonder if it’s better to bite the bullet early or hold off till next year and try hit on a good assistant

 

[Boppo]

Probably both. They identified that we need more run from the back half, and we got McVee to help.

Pearce is an issue, both fitness and role. If he can't play lock down anymore his viability in a top four side is questionable.

A lot hinges on the fitness of Cox and the development of one of Davies, Draper or Murphy.

Playing OMac again ahead of those last 3 is stupid.

 

[swanny1234]

I think it's a sort of nuanced situation with Longmuir, I just don't know when they're going to sack a guy who by all reports is adored by the players, every player who's spoken on him has nothing but glowing things to say, board seem very happy with him too.

Until one of those groups becomes unhappy, I just don't see a situation where he's getting sacked. Not playing finals this year could be that straw that breaks the camel's back, but if we continue to play finals football, I don't see him getting the boot.

I believe the players at Saints and Carlton both loved Brett Ratten too but he got the sack due to performances.
I don’t doubt JLo has great relationships with many of the players, that isn’t in question here, I think he’s probably a very nice chap who you would want to have a beer with (and is probably a lot less awkward outside the media/press conferences).

I think there are some guys born to be assistant coaches, and that really is their ceiling. JLo is one of them.

 

[Dockeroo]

This is why I've accepted our lot with JL as coach. The bar has been lowered even further to 10th now, and that would be enough for the club to run it back. There's also very little chance this team finishes lower than 10th barring a total injury crisis. And to be frank, even if we did have a disaster year, Garlic/the board would still be adverse to making a change. He was pretty definitive about JL as a coach and the direction of the club last year at 4-5, moments before we got trashed by St Kilda. And to be fair we won a lot of games after that and had a pretty fun year - we weren't in contention for a flag though, we haven't been in any single year under JL, and I suspect we won't be this year either. But finals, or even just competing for them is good enough for the people running the place. Good crowds, good fan engagement, a few primetime games, > 50% win rate. That's enough. Of course they'd like a flag, but are unwilling to shift the ground under the team and take the risks required to go from a 5-10th team to a 1-4th team.

This perfectly articulates my opinion.
Some one mentioned above about us being a top 4 side - I’m fairly certain already this year that there are 4 teams better than us in this league.

We are basically running with the same list as last year apart from McVee, while already signs are we are gonna have a worse run with injuries in 2026 (we actually had a great run last year).

I think we will hover around 7th, maybe win a final but we won’t be serious contenders.
And you are 100% right - even if we came 11th or 12th I don’t think JL would be moved on.

 

[swanny1234]

Genuine chance for 6-7 coaches to get sacked this year
Voss nicks JL mini Ross Clarko and Brad Scott. Seems like the talent of available coaches is slim wonder if it’s better to bite the bullet early or hold off till next year and try hit on a good assistant

No chance of Mini getting the sack, I’d also suggest it’s very unlikely Clarko goes either. Those clubs are coming from a long way back, although you’d want to see an upturn in form from them both - more pressure on Clarko as I think there is more expectation on North than the Weags.

Of the others, Voss should be shown the door if Carlton don’t make finals, and likely goes halfway through if they’re poor and aren’t even threatening for Wildcard, probably Ross too given how much Saints have spent, feels like finals is a minimum there too.

Brad Scott - geez Essendon look like a rabble but I’m not sure he is in a huge amount of danger. I think he has a terrible list to work with.

The last two are JLo and Nicks - they coach two clubs that should be contending for top 4 and premierships and are into their 7th year as coach. I think anything less than a prelim final is a failed year and either should get the arse. In reality if they make finals they’ll probably be safe, which I think is too low a pass mark.

 

[poshman]

Playing OMac again ahead of those last 3 is stupid.

The challenge is Pearce. If he is no longer seen as able to play the lockdown role, where does he fit in the team?

If Pearce can play lockdown we should 100% play Davies or Draper over OMac. The difficult question is if Pearce can't play lockdown...

 

[Duz97]

I’m sorry but why can’t Pearce play lockdown? Isn’t he the only player to dominate Darcy in a 1on1 match up that we saw in round 24 last year? What’s changed since then

 

[dominguez]

This is why I've accepted our lot with JL as coach. The bar has been lowered even further to 10th now, and that would be enough for the club to run it back. There's also very little chance this team finishes lower than 10th barring a total injury crisis. And to be frank, even if we did have a disaster year, Garlic/the board would still be adverse to making a change. He was pretty definitive about JL as a coach and the direction of the club last year at 4-5, moments before we got trashed by St Kilda. And to be fair we won a lot of games after that and had a pretty fun year - we weren't in contention for a flag though, we haven't been in any single year under JL, and I suspect we won't be this year either. But finals, or even just competing for them is good enough for the people running the place. Good crowds, good fan engagement, a few primetime games, > 50% win rate. That's enough. Of course they'd like a flag, but are unwilling to shift the ground under the team and take the risks required to go from a 5-10th team to a 1-4th team.

Agree with everything in this post.

If Pearce stays on the park we'll finish high enough on the ladder for them to justify staying with JLo. If anything happens to Pearce though our backline is fragile. Brennan Cox in the past has struggled after returning from injury. Ryan is underdone. Omac, Draper and Davies are mediocre. Hopefully Pearce stays fit because without him we battle to finish top 6 IMO.