Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[gaz love x]

Tom Stewart happened in this manner 4 years ago. That was genuine tampering as the Crows and Eagles were very keen but were told he would only make it at Geelong.

Do you have a source for this?

 

[Knightmare]

Lo

Logan McDonald said the same thing earlier in the year.
At the end of the day all 18 year olds are going to want to stay home with mummy so she can wash their clothes

I can't say I've heard this. All interviews I've heard have suggested not only professionalism, but genuine willingness to relocate and spend his career at a club outside WA.

 

[GROTTO]

Knightmare would you say this is the first year in many years, where there is so much uncertainty, due to Covid and Academy players?

Normally the order of the first 10 or so players are a lock.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare would you say this is the first year in many years, where there is so much uncertainty, due to Covid and Academy players?

Normally the order of the first 10 or so players are a lock.

Other than Jamarra at 1, I wouldn't say to lock anything up.

I fully expect there to be some first round surprises.

Does Pedlar go higher than anyone is talking. Could Essendon take Powell instead of Macrae or Bruhn as their actual midfielder of choice?

We probably get an earlish trade. Richmond? Adelaide? GWS? Essendon? Collingwood?

It only takes one change for a lot of dominos to change course and clubs have gone well keeping quiet, even from Adelaide at 1 who they take. Essendon I've found hard to predict also and expect there could be a miss across one of those three picks.

 

[GROTTO]

It only takes one change for a lot of dominos to change course and clubs have gone well keeping quiet, even from Adelaide at 1 who they take.

Youve done this for a number of years, its the first time I can recall the uncertainty of who will go at Pick 1?

As this then opens the door for the domino effect as you mention of where players will fall.

 

[Crow till I die]

There are a few different guys I considered.

If North Melbourne were taking more, Jackson Callow and Sam Collins are two I could have seen considered.

I see a real Champion Data and analytics flavour. Maybe that's me speculating, but until I see how Luff drafts, I'm assuming he'll go the analytics route and go with guys with the performances behind them - with Angwin the one exception of those as a more speculative one who is still very early stages in his development. Berry can play some forward if you need him to. And Angwin really you could develop anywhere, though which position, I struggle with.



The only way to find out is if picked and he didn't go.

All that would be doing is wasting his own AFL future.

Going back to your previous comment about you wanting to know if a player does not want to go..so if we condone Perkins going public and there is no sanctions for him doing so, then won't that open the door for every draftee to declare what they would and would not want to do? and that then makes the draft as a whole process void.

I think that either they raise the draft age to allow the kids a bit more time to mature or whoever does not want to possibly move interstate wherever that is do not nominate for the draft and play local footy instead. Maybe increase the length of contracts for 1st round draftees from 2-4 years and that will focus all minds

 

[Knightmare]

Youve done this for a number of years, its the first time I can recall the uncertainty of who will go at Pick 1?

As this then opens the door for the domino effect as you mention of where players will fall.

No uncertainty around Jamarra at 1.

But in terms of the first active pick, it's the less certain year.

I'm expecting Thilthorpe to be Adelaide's choice, but we'll have to wait and see.

Going back to your previous comment about you wanting to know if a player does not want to go..so if we condone Perkins going public and there is no sanctions for him doing so, then won't that open the door for every draftee to declare what they would and would not want to do? and that then makes the draft as a whole process void.

I think that either they raise the draft age to allow the kids a bit more time to mature or whoever does not want to possibly move interstate wherever that is do not nominate for the draft and play local footy instead. Maybe increase the length of contracts for 1st round draftees from 2-4 years and that will focus all minds

It ultimately depends on how far prospects go. If the AFL feels things go too far, they'll step in and put more formal rules in place.

That may eventually be the outcome if we see others follow the lead of Perkins.

 

[Mojorisin]

I dont think Logan MacDonald said if he was drafted by an interstate club he would not be able to give 100% to the club, to me, that is the biggest issue with this interview.

I can't say I heard the not able to give 100% quote. Logan definitely didn't say that, just tha

I can't say I've heard this. All interviews I've heard have suggested not only professionalism, but genuine willingness to relocate and spend his career at a club outside WA.

There wasn't much in it. Just trying to further my point that many 18 year olds want to stay home. It was on a wa radio station (can't remember which) he said he'd prefer to stay home with family and play at Optus and I think most would feel the same. Florent was one that didn't want to go to NSW but swans were able to make him comfortable and he has now adjusted and signed on long-term

 

[Giant Strides]

I hope your mock draft comes to fruition for GWS - happy with those selections.

Thanks for all of your commentary this year, it's been very interesting!

 

[bl4ke]

What time is the draft kicking off?

 

[Oscarman]

What time is the draft kicking off?

Tomorrow at this rate

 

[Warhorse]

Tom Stewart happened in this manner 4 years ago. That was genuine tampering as the Crows and Eagles were very keen but were told he would only make it at Geelong.

Rubbish. Sydney were going to take him. Geelong went much early than expected when they selected him.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Guessing you’re not too pleased with Henry going to the Pies?

 

[doggy_dog]

Knightmare what can you tell us about Bedendo?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare wells pulled another draft lever and went high stakes for max holmes. How do you see us using pick 20 on max Holmes?? Do you rate him as highly as wells has rated him?? What are your thoughts around him as a player?? and how high exactly do you think wells has rated him given he swapped out our first pick in next years crop for Holmes. Sounds like wells might have had him very high on his draft board based off it

 

[Wild Bill]

Hey KM - biggest surprises not to get drafted?

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft 2020: Every club's draft haul rated:

AFL Draft 2020: Every club's draft haul rated

ESPN's AFL draft expert Chris Doerre analyses each teams performance at the 2020 AFL Draft and grades how each team fared.

www.espn.com.au

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM Thoughts on Essendon's draft haul, did they make the most of their picks.. From the outside with very little knowledge of the draft pool it appears like they traded in Peter Wright, then se 2 of their top 1 picks on clones ie 200cm position less players hoping one of them comes good.

 

[blueiris]

I feel Brisbane were hopeful of Carroll falling to the pick they traded from Essendon only to be taken by Carlton Max Heath or Henry Walsh would have been better late but we still have a live list spot

 

[Northernsoul74]

AFL Draft 2020: Every club's draft haul rated:

AFL Draft 2020: Every club's draft haul rated

ESPN's AFL draft expert Chris Doerre analyses each teams performance at the 2020 AFL Draft and grades how each team fared.

www.espn.com.au

You must be shattered. Get some rest.

 

[Chioli]

Rubbish. Sydney were going to take him. Geelong went much early than expected when they selected him.

Not rubbish at all. Ask eagles or crows what they were told

 

[Chioli]

Do you have a source for this?

Yes

 

[FlyingV]

Great work Knightmare, love how you stick to your guns and block out the outside noise. I actually think that is a point of difference for you vs the media, who try and get inside word rather then making list assessments and educated predictions themselves.

Interested in why you think Carroll dropped so far? Could it be he lacks the tank for midfield minutes?

 

[Knightmare]

KM Thoughts on Essendon's draft haul, did they make the most of their picks.. From the outside with very little knowledge of the draft pool it appears like they traded in Peter Wright, then se 2 of their top 1 picks on clones ie 200cm position less players hoping one of them comes good.

I covered Essendon in my draft review on espn.

First three are high risk/high reward picks.

Big time theme towards going tall. What troubles me more generally with Essendon is particularly with reduced list sizes going into next year, just how many talls were added. It's the complete counter to the methodology I would incorporate in the same position, putting talent identification aside. When taking KPPs, I'd only ever take one if my view is they're either best-22 standard today, or project to become a clear best-22 standard player in the future. Anything short of that. Pass. If they're not the best available player. Pass. If I already have those young KPPs on my list, I'm only taking more if those next guys I'm taking are better than those I already have and are of a standard where I'd feel confident they'd take the spots of the existing guys either now or when developed.

There is added utility value with talls now compared to in the past with Nik Cox a good example of this. You can play him on a wing or flank if you want to. And let's say that's your vision for his best position. Then you've got those other KPP spots to fill. Once you've got those you see as those best 22 guys either for now or the future lined up. I wouldn't be adding any more. Go use other list positions on players who play other positions. Look to fill other best 22 spots and make your best team better. Every list position is incredibly valuable. You either need to be best-22, or looking like you will develop into a clear best-22 player, or you should be replaced and the next crop should be brought in either from opposition lists or through the draft.

I've always for this reason been harsh on the decisions Stephen Silvagni made when he kept loading up on KPPs whether it was at GWS or Carlton. He would always take many more than his team lists would be able to ever utilise. And many of them wouldn't be those clear-cut best-22 guys, and even more of them weren't best availables at their respective picks either. I'm seeing Essendon this offseason in particular go that same route, and it's not a route I would go. Particularly when I'm seeing a crippled defence, nothing in the way of outside midfielders, a need for a quality bigger bodied ball winning midfielder. There are lots of spots Essendon need to find players and in the same situation I'd be handling things very differently.

I feel Brisbane were hopeful of Carroll falling to the pick they traded from Essendon only to be taken by Carlton Max Heath or Henry Walsh would have been better late but we still have a live list spot

Brisbane were long rumoured to want a ruckman at some point. I assumed it would be as a rookie with Walsh someone who I felt like would make it through as he did. I do favour Smith to both of Heath and Walsh though. He has that weapon with his contested marking. Walsh by contrast is a have one good moment a game guy and otherwise be invisible, while Heath didn't do anything in 2019 and although was a reported pre-season improver, we haven't had the chance to see it this year to validate that belief.

You must be shattered. Get some rest.

Sent in my draft review at 5:30am to ESPN.

1 1/2 hours sleep and onto my day job.

I look forward to some rest this weekend once I start holidays!

Great work Knightmare, love how you stick to your guns and block out the outside noise. I actually think that is a point of difference for you vs the media, who try and get inside word rather then making list assessments and educated predictions themselves.

Interested in why you think Carroll dropped so far? Could it be he lacks the tank for midfield minutes?

I'm a blue ocean guy. I'm not here to compete with anyone. I do what I do, and that's give my take on talent and make observations about everything football related. And when it comes to talent ID, always back your own eyes. I find the more I do this, the greater the rewards and the better the calls on talent I make at the end of the day.

Carroll I thought may have been taken by Melbourne or St Kilda, but Melbourne ultimately wanted to add class and speed forward of centre and more speed with Rosman, while St Kilda wanted a tall and liked Allison. Had Carlton passed, I don't think he would have gone any further than St Kilda's second selection which came 4 after Carlton. Ultimately with Carroll dropping, it seems more-so a case of clubs just targeting other types and feeling they had more pressing needs, and probably also rating others ahead of him.

Ultimately, my evaluation of Carroll is substantially more positive/optimistic than seems to be the case in clubland. In terms of speed/endurance, he's only average, but he does move well and smoothly. I don't have any data on what his proportion of midfield minutes are or his time on ground, GPS numbers or any of that, but if I'm to make my own evaluation. He played a lot across half-back previously, more inside mid this year. Has a late year birthday 20/12, so has plenty of time to develop that. Endurance is something that can be developed with work, and he's not an uber fast twitch athlete, so I don't think that will be a problem to develop. Clubs do tend to emphasis athleticism a lot more than I do however, and really took some in my view questionable risks in this draft. With Carroll obviously on the positive side of the argument from my perspective as a footballer, late year birthday, rapid improver, but has the game to translate with his class, skill, evasion and in particularly now contested ball winning.

Hey KM - biggest surprises not to get drafted?

Zavier Maher, Kaine Baldwin, Liam Kolar and Zane Trew in particularly I felt were going to have their names called out last night.

Knightmare wells pulled another draft lever and went high stakes for max holmes. How do you see us using pick 20 on max Holmes?? Do you rate him as highly as wells has rated him?? What are your thoughts around him as a player?? and how high exactly do you think wells has rated him given he swapped out our first pick in next years crop for Holmes. Sounds like wells might have had him very high on his draft board based off it

I went into it more in my draft review. It's a big risk. One game? And trading away a 2021 1st for someone who has played one game? He's an athlete and showed some glimpses in his one game. But he's very raw and needs time to develop.

He's an athlete (elite speed/endurance) and the hope would be year 3/4 that maybe on a wing he comes good. The impression I have is he's a worker and will put in the time, so he'll give it a red hot crack.

Not sure if Holmes played in any of the practice matches and showed something there? That time of year I watch and find AFL Preseason play more interesting.

But big difference in draft board rankings. If I kept extending my own power rankings I'd have Holmes something like 90-100. The sample size just isn't there for me to feel confident taking him over guys with more of a volume of work.

Knightmare what can you tell us about Bedendo?

I mention Bedendo among all other selections in my draft review piece on ESPN. But basically a high leaping, strong marking medium forward. Dogs no doubt would have loved a crumber but there likely wasn't one who appealed with most of the better ones taken before the Dogs pick.

Guessing you’re not too pleased with Henry going to the Pies?

Henry wouldn't have been my choice and of the three earlier picks, that was the one that didn't to me represent the best value. But I'm sure a lot of others will be excited about the pick given other clubs rated him a lot higher.

 

[Jazny]

If Walker doesn't get drafted, I guess it will be my turn to get a little burned this year

I guess I didn't get burned in the end...

...except for Callow, but almost everyone got burned on Callow... he must have tested really bad, but could be a future Mihocek! Isaac Chugg turned out to be the anti-Callow, on field not that great, tested out of his mind