Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Deadly Darcy]

If the Suns decide to pre-draft their 3 top academy kids this year - Davies, Jeffrey & Lake - do any Crows/Roos/Hawks fans think the they would entertain trading their 2021 Rd1 pick for the Suns pick 5 this year?

The Roos might do pick 5 and 2MP for their pick next year? Might need to offer a later pick swop as well in case they end up at pick 1 next year - it’s a bit risky for them. Depends what they get for Ben Brown as well but it would help them fast track.

 

[TryAnHit]

The Roos might do pick 5 and 2MP for their pick next year? Might need to offer a later pick swop as well in case they end up at pick 1 next year - it’s a bit risky for them. Depends what they get for Ben Brown as well but it would help them fast track.

Would doubt they give up a lock for Pick 1 in a super strong draft

 

[Obedient Spatula]

The Roos might do pick 5 and 2MP for their pick next year? Might need to offer a later pick swop as well in case they end up at pick 1 next year - it’s a bit risky for them. Depends what they get for Ben Brown as well but it would help them fast track.

We need picks next year, got 2 FS and a few NGA kids so will be banking later picks and hopefully acquiring some higher futures from Brown, Higgins, Polec trades this year.

 

[foxdog50]

Strong mark on the lead and 1v1. Long penetrating kick (65m penetration). Not an athlete and ground level craft nothing exceptional, but he's physically mature and is an i50 marking target.

A lot of guys with similar types who have been similarly advanced have been overlooked in recent years. Typically recruiters in recent times have looked at those similar more physically advanced marking types as lower upside prospects. On performances on the board though he's better performed than a lot of the KPPs viewed as 10-50 picks, so given that he has to be considered seriously.

If a club doesn't see him as good enough as a key forward, I'd advise clubs to consider him as a key defender given the penetration on his kick and how strong of a mark he is. He can win his 1v1s and reads it well enough to suggest he could become an able intercept mark and make that switch. Hopefully he has grown a few cm, as at 192cm which he measured in at last year is suboptimal and does make that key defender vision less likely.

Thanks for the reply

 

[samthemanlonergan]

Any idea when the Bigfooty combined phantom draft will be on this year?

 

[PMBangers]

Any idea when the Bigfooty combined phantom draft will be on this year?

After trade period

 

[Mnbvcxz1234567]

are there any good line breaking mids or defenders in this year's draft?

 

[Peel67skin]

The Roos might do pick 5 and 2MP for their pick next year? Might need to offer a later pick swop as well in case they end up at pick 1 next year - it’s a bit risky for them. Depends what they get for Ben Brown as well but it would help them fast track.

I don't see any risk at all based on history GCS swap with Future first round , Eagles- premiership 2018 , Brisbane Top 4 2019 draft .

 

[King Corey]

We need picks next year, got 2 FS and a few NGA kids so will be banking later picks and hopefully acquiring some higher futures from Brown, Higgins, Polec trades this year.

We do?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Just on the above post, Knightmare do you have any visibility of who is listed in club’s NGA’s for 2021?

it’s excruciatingly hard to find this info anywhere.

 

[Mutineer]

We do?

Pretty sure I read somewhere that the revamped NGA guidelines would see 1st and possibly the 2nd round protected from NGA bids, also earlier the talk was the 20% discount on NGA's would be dropped. I read that as the outstanding NGA's in future are in the open draft basically.

Here it is...

Draft shake-up: Next Gen Academies to phase out access to top prospects

Changes to the Next Generation Academies are set to have an impact on where top prospects land

www.afl.com.au

 

[Wild Bill]

Would doubt they give up a lock for Pick 1 in a super strong draft

100% this. Especially with the early look of Horne.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Knightmare is Riley Thilthorpe one who you would say drifts in and out of games, Like Day and Wright?

Is he an 18 y.o Josh Jenkins?

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[Mutineer]

Knightmare is Riley Thilthorpe one who you would say drifts in and out of games, Like Day and Wright?

Is he an 18 y.o Josh Jenkins?

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

Knighta's Bio on the 1st page doesn't sound a lot like JJ I'd have to say...

6. Riley Thilthorpe
Best position: Key forward/ruck
Height, weight: 200cm, 99kg
Recruited from: West Adelaide
Projected draft range: 1-10
Preseason ranking: 7
Rationale: Freakishly quick tall who can play either as a key forward or through the ruck. Thilthorpe has held his own at SANFL League level, securing him firmly inside the top 10 and moving up one position.
Strengths: Scoreboard impact, contested marking, clean at ground level, endurance, speed, agility, leap, x-factor, size and strength, versatility to play key forward, ruck or as a high leading forward, performances at SANFL League level.
Weaknesses: Accumulation, unclear best position.

 

[Knightmare]

Any idea when the Bigfooty combined phantom draft will be on this year?

Normally it would be after the U18 Champs, but that hasn't happened.

Hopefully we have someone organise it again this year and hopefully we can get enough people together to have another combined phantom draft perhaps some time after the trade period when we know where all the picks sit.

are there any good line breaking mids or defenders in this year's draft?

For that more outside run and linebreaking Elijah Hollands brings that along with Archie Perkins and Connor Downie (Haw). From defence Lachlan Jones (PA) and Brandon Walker (Freo) bring that. Sydney also have some speed with Campbell and Gulden. *Any hint here that a lot of the talent is aligned with particular clubs this year yet? Otherwise it's a lot of burst from the stoppage types more-so who have impressed me when I'm looking at those speedier types.

The draft is more-so filled with skilled types more-so than the super fast line-breakers mostly of those looking like strong draft choices.

Just on the above post, Knightmare do you have any visibility of who is listed in club’s NGA’s for 2021?

it’s excruciatingly hard to find this info anywhere.

Can't say I've seen a list, nor would I know them all yet.

Happy for someone to post a link/list if there is one out there though.

Knightmare is Riley Thilthorpe one who you would say drifts in and out of games, Like Day and Wright?

Is he an 18 y.o Josh Jenkins?

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I might be the only person in the country with this view, other than maybe Josh or some of his circle, but I actually rate Josh Jenkins and even now feel he's hard done by not getting games for Geelong, viewing him as underutilised and someone who should be part of their best 22. Between 2014-2019 he never dropped below 2 goals per game. 2015-2018 averaged 2 marks i50 per game. Better than 1 contested mark per game every year. And he's got ground level craft beyond just that. He's a piece and shares a lot of the same attributes I can list off with Thilthorpe.

Jenkins is probably a pretty reasonable comparison, though Thilthorpe can also ruck, push up the ground more and is a little more threatening overhead again, so I do like Thilthorpe more. It's comparing a top-25 guy in hindsight from his draft in Jenkins to someone who should be top-10 to compare their quality more directly. Thilthorpe I don't see as that Max/Ben King level key forward but he can be roughly something like a prime Josh Jenkins, or perhaps a little better, and much better than Day/Wright. Athletically there is a lot of Jenkins and Wright in him, which is a good thing and he's still more a glimpses guy in the SANFL than a star, as should be expected given his age. And that's going to happen as still a junior playing against state league opposition. But that's why he is for me that tier below McDonald. He's not looking like that transcendent star or A-grader, and more that next group down for me.

My initial thinking with a comparison centred around something like a more mobile Harry McKay/Kurt Tippett, but Jenkins probably is more similar as that better mover with a more diverse game. That's nothing to sneeze at. But thinking he'll be one of the best 5 key forwards in the competition? I think that would be optimistic. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Logan McDonald both can be. A good outcome for Thilthorpe is if he is that top-10 key forward who can also ruck when needed.

 

[McRobie]

Thanks for the quick response!
I agree it’s been poor - but due to systems rather than personnel. We had Whitfield and Williams down there for large parts... it’s a problem of the coaches doing I think.
We have Lachie Ash (great debut season), Whitfield and Isaac Cumming next season.
There is plenty of run and precise kicking available if the coaches cater to it.

How Cameron has a job still after what he’s done with that abundance of talent is mind blowing.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

I quite like JJ too, his prime was something he should be very proud of. If Thilthorpe were to deliver such heights I would be wrapped to have him at the suns. I think he would be a good combination with King and Lukosius, they all offer something different. Although he seems a more natural ruck to me. Given your concerns over Thilthorpe never being in that top echelon of even his draft, where is the latest you can see him sliding to?

My 2 original questions were separate, just to clarify

Normally it would be after the U18 Champs, but that hasn't happened.

Hopefully we have someone organise it again this year and hopefully we can get enough people together to have another combined phantom draft perhaps some time after the trade period when we know where all the picks sit.



For that more outside run and linebreaking Elijah Hollands brings that along with Archie Perkins and Connor Downie (Haw). From defence Lachlan Jones (PA) and Brandon Walker (Freo) bring that. Sydney also have some speed with Campbell and Gulden. *Any hint here that a lot of the talent is aligned with particular clubs this year yet? Otherwise it's a lot of burst from the stoppage types more-so who have impressed me when I'm looking at those speedier types.

The draft is more-so filled with skilled types more-so than the super fast line-breakers mostly of those looking like strong draft choices.



Can't say I've seen a list, nor would I know them all yet.

Happy for someone to post a link/list if there is one out there though.



I might be the only person in the country with this view, other than maybe Josh or some of his circle, but I actually rate Josh Jenkins and even now feel he's hard done by not getting games for Geelong, viewing him as underutilised and someone who should be part of their best 22. Between 2014-2019 he never dropped below 2 goals per game. 2015-2018 averaged 2 marks i50 per game. Better than 1 contested mark per game every year. And he's got ground level craft beyond just that. He's a piece and shares a lot of the same attributes I can list off with Thilthorpe.

Jenkins is probably a pretty reasonable comparison, though Thilthorpe can also ruck, push up the ground more and is a little more threatening overhead again, so I do like Thilthorpe more. It's comparing a top-25 guy in hindsight from his draft in Jenkins to someone who should be top-10 to compare their quality more directly. Thilthorpe I don't see as that Max/Ben King level key forward but he can be roughly something like a prime Josh Jenkins, or perhaps a little better, and much better than Day/Wright. Athletically there is a lot of Jenkins and Wright in him, which is a good thing and he's still more a glimpses guy in the SANFL than a star, as should be expected given his age. And that's going to happen as still a junior playing against state league opposition. But that's why he is for me that tier below McDonald. He's not looking like that transcendent star or A-grader, and more that next group down for me.

My initial thinking with a comparison centred around something like a more mobile Harry McKay/Kurt Tippett, but Jenkins probably is more similar as that better mover with a more diverse game. That's nothing to sneeze at. But thinking he'll be one of the best 5 key forwards in the competition? I think that would be optimistic. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Logan McDonald both can be. A good outcome for Thilthorpe is if he is that top-10 key forward who can also ruck when needed.

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[sunsofanarchy]

My bad, I just read the ESPN thing

Knighta's Bio on the 1st page doesn't sound a lot like JJ I'd have to say...

6. Riley Thilthorpe
Best position: Key forward/ruck
Height, weight: 200cm, 99kg
Recruited from: West Adelaide
Projected draft range: 1-10
Preseason ranking: 7
Rationale: Freakishly quick tall who can play either as a key forward or through the ruck. Thilthorpe has held his own at SANFL League level, securing him firmly inside the top 10 and moving up one position.
Strengths: Scoreboard impact, contested marking, clean at ground level, endurance, speed, agility, leap, x-factor, size and strength, versatility to play key forward, ruck or as a high leading forward, performances at SANFL League level.
Weaknesses: Accumulation, unclear best position.

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Corey310]

KM who would you like Collingwood to draft late if you were deciding? maybe 3rd round and onwards

 

[Knightmare]

How Cameron has a job still after what he’s done with that abundance of talent is mind blowing.

I tweeted on this a few weeks ago.

2016-2020, each year on paper they've had the best list in the competition.

With no premierships in that time and missing the finals this season, I don't see Cameron as the right coach for GWS to go all the way or maximise their winning chances.

Who seriously thought after they started we'd be talking about GWS with 0 premierships at this time? They looked like a probable dynasty with all the young talent they had, but it's never materialised into anything.

I quite like JJ too, his prime was something he should be very proud of. If Thilthorpe were to deliver such heights I would be wrapped to have him at the suns. I think he would be a good combination with King and Lukosius, they all offer something different. Although he seems a more natural ruck to me. Given your concerns over Thilthorpe never being in that top echelon of even his draft, where is the latest you can see him sliding to?

My 2 original questions were separate, just to clarify

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Thilthorpe probably goes to Adelaide first up or North Melbourne. If North for whatever reason went with a Hollands or someone else, Hawthorn at 4 probably take him. It's hard to see him sliding to Gold Coast's pick. Most in the industry from what I can gather see him as a top 1-4 pick on quality and I feel like of everyone I have him the lowest. From everything I've heard, and he has done well in the SANFL, but he also seems to have the application and professionalism.

KM who would you like Collingwood to draft late if you were deciding? maybe 3rd round and onwards

A bid for Reef McInnes hopefully happens after Collingwood's first round pick. Collingwood would then need to trade for a number of late picks to avoid a deficit for next year which I consider important as no guarantee Collingwood are a top-8 side next year.

Late draft Jackson Callow or Kaine Baldwin as key forwards if they slide through I like. Jack Ginnivan I could see some value in, in a number of positions as a productive type with the performances on the board but good skills and can play across a number of positions. Sam Berry as a midfielder with a burst of speed or Sam Collins as a general defender both I'd have on my shortlist as tow I see as having high probability of AFL careers. Of those not invited to the national combine Jackson Cardillo and Will Papley I personally really like for forward pressure also, with Cardillo having future midfield scope and a lot of tools at his disposal. I think they're both underrated and should be spoken about more as two I'd more than happily select also. Pheonix Spicer I'm also as a speedy forward somewhat intrigued by the upside of and would also have on that shortlist.

 

[GWS Goose]

Hey KM, long time fan of your work.

Wondering if I could get your opinion on Isaac Cumming? Was a fan of him in his draft year, but probably hasn't come on due to a combo of injury and opportunity.

Do you see him as the replacement for Heath Shaw or potentially playing elsewhere?

I know you're not asking me, but I m really bullish on cumming, great athleticism, good kick.
Limited opportunities has held him bavk, this year was finally his time and he got injured.

 

[TryAnHit]

JJ is very hard done by.... still averaged over 2 goals a game.... if its so easy to get them over the back why don't other fwds do it.... his work rate made those goals happen...

Its a bit like the moneyball movie.... he gets on base...

 

[ray8182]

Knightmare what are your thoughts on Bailey Laurie as a small forward at AFL level.

Looks like a good footballer with good skills and decision making. Agility looks good with a nice side step but l wonder about his speed for the small forward position.

Also do you think he’s likely to go second round.


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[Knightmare]

JJ is very hard done by.... still averaged over 2 goals a game.... if its so easy to get them over the back why don't other fwds do it.... his work rate made those goals happen...

Its a bit like the moneyball movie.... he gets on base...

That's precisely how I view Jenkins. His record is achievement that very few match when you go through the names in a number of the key categories.

Knightmare what are your thoughts on Bailey Laurie as a small forward at AFL level.

Looks like a good footballer with good skills and decision making. Agility looks good with a nice side step but l wonder about his speed for the small forward position.

Also do you think he’s likely to go second round.

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Second round is roughly Laurie's range.

Laurie plays with good energy and effort and gives those second and third tackle efforts. Has good agility and evasion. But then also is a really nice ball user and lowers his eyes and hits those i50 targets. He offers minimal scoreboard impact and has limited scope through the midfield as the contested side of his game is only okay, but otherwise is a handy small forward. I'd like the contested side of his game to improve his probability of a career.

 

[GWS Goose]

My personal view is there isn't a single 'great' wing in the game.

My thinking in this regard is if you look through most All-Australian teams. You have on-ballers predominantly listed on the wing with the best midfielders all inside and having those contested components to their game and playing in and around the ball.

Lachie Whitfield when up and going is probably that best by position in the competition in terms of what we see as a wing, but my view is the 2008 and 2016 seasons of Richo and N.Riewoldt on a wing respectively are the best I've seen at the position, with the play Goodes when used on a wing not far off either, as another of those basically key forwards playing on a wing.

I did an analysis on my YouTube on this topic.

The basics are 2008 Richo: 48 goals, 46 contested marks, 62 marks i50, 222 marks (all comfortable teams highs) from 20 games. On a wing? They're key forward + numbers. And while his numbers on paper were great, his impact on games was ridiculous.

I look at key forwards today, and they have some tough competition with some great key defenders in the game today who match up well for height, strength and speed, with few opportunities to get an advantage. Then you've got all the numbers that come back into defence.

Get a Naughton free (and he's an elite endurance runner so he'd fly up and down the ground anyway) and if he's running from up on a wing i50. He's not going to have a key defender running back with him. Even if his opponent follows him, they'll be overmatched and won't be able to compete with him. It makes it easier to take more marks and take a higher % of marks per number of times targeted when pushing forward. It also allows those front half types to provide forward pressure which is that primary function of forwards to maximise winning, with the bulk of scoring opportunities coming as a result of forward pressure.
Naughton under that kind of gameplan can either be a kick behind the ball taking intercept marks, or if an English takes an intercept mark, Naughton can be streaming forward to provide an i50 target.

If I want skill/speed/drive. That's what I want from my defenders. On a wing, give guys with elite marking capabilities and ideally height with elite endurance and that's going to have a huge impact on winning as I showed in my video looking at the improvement Richmond and St Kilda made when they switched Riewoldt/Richo onto wings respectively.

As for what to do with Hunter? I'd let him rotate onto a wing, and maybe that forces him onto a hff predominantly and he can just play higher and be almost like another wing. That would mean little significantly changes about his role. Though I would argue just as easily he'd be a great fit if not a better fit across half-back in such a structure, and I'd be inclined to try that first given he generates good drive and effective metres gained.

I suspect my vision of how the wing will be played in the future is a long way ahead of my time and for it to become a conventional structure in the future it will require key forwards to develop midfielder-like endurance.

The thing is, Naughton and English both have that endurance, so they can do that now and be the pioneers. Naughton in the yo-yo (beep test replacement) finished equal third in his draft year and came 6th in the agility. So he's absolutely athletically able. Then we've got English who for the Dogs when I've looked at the metres covered in game has been the highest or among those very highest suggesting he can also cover enough ground, as someone who grew up as a mid but grew into a ruckman later, and really he still doesn't play like a ruckman. Add that to their contested marking capabilities and how well they both read it, and just let them free wheel, let them run and run, get to the spots they want to and they'll intercept a lot of marks and get into some dangerous spots i50 for some big grabs also.

Could Jeremy Cameron play the wing role you are talking about.
Excellent field kick.
Seems athletic enough. Clearly his engine has never been tested with that sort of running. My gut feel is he probably has it in him, but obviously unknown.