Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Could Jeremy Cameron play the wing role you are talking about.
Excellent field kick.
Seems athletic enough. Clearly his engine has never been tested with that sort of running. My gut feel is he probably has it in him, but obviously unknown.

Cameron, and same goes with Buddy I enjoy their talent and performance most when used i50.

Cameron absolutely could push up onto a wing though and if i50 entries are slow and few and far between I'd encourage him to push up there to get some touches, get involved and build his confidence in a given game.

 

[Knightmare]

Some quick notes from today's game Tassie U18 North v South:
With no Callow none I'd consider suitable for selection inside the first 2 rounds. Ollie Sanders sensational skills through midfield. Sam Tilley also had some good moments and looks developable. Elijah Reardon showed x-factor while McInor crumbed well.

 

[GWS Goose]

I tweeted on this a few weeks ago.

2016-2020, each year on paper they've had the best list in the competition.

With no premierships in that time and missing the finals this season, I don't see Cameron as the right coach for GWS to go all the way or maximise their winning chances.

Who seriously thought after they started we'd be talking about GWS with 0 premierships at this time? They looked like a probable dynasty with all the young talent they had, but it's never materialised into anything.



Thilthorpe probably goes to Adelaide first up or North Melbourne. If North for whatever reason went with a Hollands or someone else, Hawthorn at 4 probably take him. It's hard to see him sliding to Gold Coast's pick. Most in the industry from what I can gather see him as a top 1-4 pick on quality and I feel like of everyone I have him the lowest. From everything I've heard, and he has done well in the SANFL, but he also seems to have the application and professionalism.



A bid for Reef McInnes hopefully happens after Collingwood's first round pick. Collingwood would then need to trade for a number of late picks to avoid a deficit for next year which I consider important as no guarantee Collingwood are a top-8 side next year.

Late draft Jackson Callow or Kaine Baldwin as key forwards if they slide through I like. Jack Ginnivan I could see some value in, in a number of positions as a productive type with the performances on the board but good skills and can play across a number of positions. Sam Berry as a midfielder with a burst of speed or Sam Collins as a general defender both I'd have on my shortlist as tow I see as having high probability of AFL careers. Of those not invited to the national combine Jackson Cardillo and Will Papley I personally really like for forward pressure also, with Cardillo having future midfield scope and a lot of tools at his disposal. I think they're both underrated and should be spoken about more as two I'd more than happily select also. Pheonix Spicer I'm also as a speedy forward somewhat intrigued by the upside of and would also have on that shortlist.

To be fair to Leon. They had a horrendous injury role 17-19.
Also how many coaches have been sacked after going 3 prelims including a GF over a 4 year period.
I think his short comings are far over stated.

 

[Mnbvcxz1234567]

Km Are there any good crumbing pressure forwards late draft?

 

[daniel23]

knightmare i think you have dgb around 15 in your power rankings a lot lower compared to others, yet had mcasey at 6 last year what are your reasons behind that ? Just from viewing last years 18 carnival again to me he projects as someone with a lot more scope then mcasey and now know he has better speed and agility .

 

[andleanback]

knightmare i think you have dgb around 15 in your power rankings a lot lower compared to others, yet had mcasey at 6 last year what are your reasons behind that ? Just from viewing last years 18 carnival again to me he projects as someone with a lot more scope then mcasey and now know he has better speed and agility .

DGB has a way higher ceiling than McAsey imo.

 

[Knightmare]

To be fair to Leon. They had a horrendous injury role 17-19.
Also how many coaches have been sacked after going 3 prelims including a GF over a 4 year period.
I think his short comings are far over stated.

Even with injuries. Next man up.

Western Bulldogs won in 2016 without their captain and had injuries during the year.

West Coast won in 2018 without Nic Nat and Gaff. Collingwood had their injuries in 2018 also.

When a team has a system, next man up works.

GWS don't have that system. If I asked you. What is GWS' system for winning? It's hard to identify. I've watched most of GWS' games this year and in years past and I can't identify it. It's not distinct like other successful teams.

And GWS more than have that kind of talent to be a next man up team.

Have a midfield injury? Tom Green and Jackson Hately should be an team best 22, and neither played a lot this year.

Have an injury up forward? Put in Jake Riccardi, or if he's already in, then Jeremy Finlayson.

Injury in defence. Isaac Cumming is more than able depth and many would argue should have been best-22 this year. Mumford hurt? Sam Jacobs is an able ruckman and frankly would have been a better option this year.

Need another general forward? GWS have a lot of those sitting around also with Zac Langdon an easy in, with a lot of those forwards much the same.

Both on best 22 on paper and depth on paper, there hasn't for the past 5 years been any team close to having what GWS have. And even today, if I could have any playing list and pick my coach. I'm picking GWS' playing list.

Km Are there any good crumbing pressure forwards late draft?

I mentioned a few on the other page.

Jackson Cardillo, Will Papley and Pheonix Spicer are among those I like. And they're all different. Cardillo isn't a small, but very strong, very explosive, has a vert and can take a grab. Can push into the midfield and win it. But has the speed and can apply forward pressure and win ground balls. Papley is decent and underrated. Then Spicer if you want the most speed, he definitely brings that to the table.

knightmare i think you have dgb around 15 in your power rankings a lot lower compared to others, yet had mcasey at 6 last year what are your reasons behind that ? Just from viewing last years 18 carnival again to me he projects as someone with a lot more scope then mcasey and now know he has better speed and agility .

DGB will rise up my draft board in my final power rankings in December.

In saying that, McAsey based on junior projections I see as the better prospect long term. More certain to grow into his body and be that sure KPP size v DGB who is very skinny still and may remain that way. Though I see little separation and believe both will be good.

Adelaide at least previously had a good history developing KPPs, and I'm not sure what the rush with McAsey is to be great so soon. It's year 1. KPPs take 4 years generally to become consistent and start looking good usually year 3. Give him a few years before dismissing him so quickly.

 

[Knightmare]

5 talent ID lessons all scouts must learn from the NBA draft and my 2020 top-5 NBA Draft prospects:


*Also includes AFL relevant lessons - see in description below timestamps.

 

[Harlequin Dream]

5 talent ID lessons all scouts must learn from the NBA draft and my 2020 top-5 NBA Draft prospects:

As an AFL/NBA guy I agree with 90% of that.

The other lessons I would take from the history of the NBA draft and apply it to the AFL are:

1/ Look for rate of improvement.

This is one thing I think the Grizzlies have done extremely well with the Morant/Clarke draft. Neither of these players were obvious picks, but quickly became excellent prospects with how the blossomed in college.

2/ Look for elite attributes even if it isn't what the league values at the position at the time.

Steph Curry was a small guard who was looked over when the league did not value the 3 point shot as much as they should have.

Luka Doncic was underrated because the league valued hyperathleticism and 3-point shooting. They didn't value a tall guard who can make it to the rim with ease using a combination of handles, size and iq. All of which translated fantastically because he is super efficient under the basket with both finishing and passing.



I think you are harsh on Ayton. He would be taken top 5 in a redraft.

I agree on Ball though. I think if the negative perception of Luka (pre-draft) was true he would be LaMelo. He carries outside shooting and athletic weaknesses but his handle and inside finishing aren't good enough to give him the weapons he needs.

 

[Mnbvcxz1234567]

Km Out all the kpps in this year's draft which ones will be the bigger bodied ones when they fill out?

 

[Knightmare]

As an AFL/NBA guy I agree with 90% of that.

The other lessons I would take from the history of the NBA draft and apply it to the AFL are:

1/ Look for rate of improvement.

This is one thing I think the Grizzlies have done extremely well with the Morant/Clarke draft. Neither of these players were obvious picks, but quickly became excellent prospects with how the blossomed in college.

2/ Look for elite attributes even if it isn't what the league values at the position at the time.

Steph Curry was a small guard who was looked over when the league did not value the 3 point shot as much as they should have.

Luka Doncic was underrated because the league valued hyperathleticism and 3-point shooting. They didn't value a tall guard who can make it to the rim with ease using a combination of handles, size and iq. All of which translated fantastically because he is super efficient under the basket with both finishing and passing.

I think you are harsh on Ayton. He would be taken top 5 in a redraft.

I agree on Ball though. I think if the negative perception of Luka (pre-draft) was true he would be LaMelo. He carries outside shooting and athletic weaknesses but his handle and inside finishing aren't good enough to give him the weapons he needs.

Rate of improvement I mentioned in the video and completely agree. It goes hand in hand with those still growing. They're the upside indicators I run off.

Ja's improvement is why I had him #2 on my board. Big time improvement and it's no surprise he improved as much as he did, and same to a lesser extent with Clarke.

I also like your second point. You don't have to be elite in what is popular at the time, if you're elite enough at what you do, you can change the way a position is played.

eg. Who was looking for a passing big man? Jokic I think will make that popular and with that post passing allowing for opportunities for cutters and 3 point shooters. It adds tremendous value. Just for one quick example. Sometimes guys can do things in a position that you'd never considered possible. eg. Magic Johnson as a 6'8/6'9 point guard as that first at that height to do it. It made everyone go look for tall point guards after that. It's how you start new trends. I look at Jack Lukosius as that guy in recent times where I feel like he can in an AFL context be that transformational player where he has a combination of skills, vision, reading the game and work rate we've never seen from a genuine kpp. When you get taller guys with small man skills in particular categories, everyone tries to find that guy who can be the next of that. Or a 196cm Patrick Cripps through the midfield as a primary midfielder can be another. Tim English as a 205cm wing I think could be another, where we haven't quite seen that at quite that height.

Doncic was a reasonable 3 point shooter in Europe, but nothing like Trae, but agree with your assessment.

On Ayton, he has a top-5 case. But isn't in mine. If I'm to re-do the 2018 NBA draft I'm taking 1. Doncic 2. Young 3. Jackson 4. Gilgeous-Alexander 5. Porter. I also really like Dante DiVincenzo and would have he and Porter fighting for 5 at the present time on my board. With Ayton and Bagley both in that conversation, but for me also just outside that top-5, with Ayton missing predominately because he isn't a floor spacer, clogging up the inside and not being an even passable 3 point shooter, with a game that in a perimeter oriented game where space and movement is vital, it isn't optimal, though I'll give him credit, his defense has gone from a liability to reasonable now at least. Porter can really boost his scoring but doesn't get enough opportunities currently to show just how incredible of a scorer he is, he can be a 25-30ppg scorer if given greater volume opportunities and an All-star. Jackson and Gilgeous-Alexander I feel like are future all-stars and should be in no time. DiVincenzo I'm also really high on and feel like he'll be a future all-defensive team type.

With Ball I'm seeing limitations after limitations. Volume 3 point shooter without being great. No mid range game. Not great getting to the rim or the line. Don't like him in the half court, his effectiveness as with Lonzo is limited to on fast transition which is useless come playoff time as those opportunities are few and far between. Very turnover prone, handle as you say not great and a component of that. He's someone who could start, but I'd rather for most team situations not be required to start.

Km Out all the kpps in this year's draft which ones will be the bigger bodied ones when they fill out?

We've got a lot of KPPs already filled out.

Kaine Baldwin and Jackson Callow are both very strongly already.

Noah Holmes is already 100kg and another beast out of Tasmania, leading the TSL in contested marks.

Thilthorpe should also become strong enough and same with McDonald.

It's mostly Grainger-Barras who I see as remaining light in build, as someone who is more lanky-strong. With Nik Cox and Zach Reid two others where they're lighter at this stage and may remain more athletic - though I haven't seen either of them this year or updated measurements to see how either have developed physically to get a feel for rate of physical development.

 

[remfan101]

Some quick notes from today's game Tassie U18 North v South:
With no Callow none I'd consider suitable for selection inside the first 2 rounds. Ollie Sanders sensational skills through midfield. Sam Tilley also had some good moments and looks developable. Elijah Reardon showed x-factor while McInor crumbed well.

Have you seen much of Sanders? Apparently he's NGA eligible for North, draft chance at all?

 

[Knightmare]

Have you seen much of Sanders? Apparently he's NGA eligible for North, draft chance at all?

Played NAB League last year. Didn't stand out then.

Terrific yesterday though. Kicking would have to be among the very best in the pool. Seriously good on his left, but also able on his right. Lowers his eyes and can hit some bullets.

Only the five games in the TSL, and not in the bests in any of those games, so I'm not expecting he gets drafted. Particularly as a smaller type at 175cm given he doesn't seem dominant.

He's one I'd like to see more of and more improvement from next year though. Hopefully we see him for Tassie in the NAB League again next year.

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Some thoughts on the Crows heading into the Draft.



Had some free time today and was bored, so thought I’d put something together.



Just my thoughts and opinions – not claiming to be an expert, or saying these things will happen.



Feel free to critique as you see fit.



Draft:



- Crows would be silly in my opinion not to take McDonald with the first pick.

My rationale is that a) KP forwards like him don’t come around too often (if you look at Knightmare's breakdown on him - he pretty much ticks almost every box ... the growth/improvement he's shown and to be a draftee doing what he's done in the WAFL is insane), and you can either draft them, or you have to be a big Victorian destination club to have good odds of getting them in free agency. Dixon got to Pt Adelaide via trade but he wasn’t the Dixon he is now at that time, and Kennedy got to West Coat, but they had to give up a Chris Judd caliber player to get him, and even Kennedy wasn’t Coleman JK at the time b) Himmelberg and Fogarty are still inconsistent and neither are a sure thing yet … let alone showing the ability to be a #1 forward. c) There’s local mids like Poulter, Cook and Powell the Crows can look to with later picks, or other mids and small/mid sized players, as well as our father sons and academies. Phillips could be a jet based on Junior numbers (stack up favorably compared to Rowell, Anderson and others), and although he makes a compelling case given the Crows lacking top tier A grade talent in the midfield, mids aren’t as rare as KPP’s. Hollands carries risk, and I don’t think he’s unique enough that you want to be taking him with that first pick.



- I think the AFL media is going to pump the heck out of ‘Thilthorpe to Crows’ headlines come closer to the draft. Thilthorpe could be anything, but I don’t think he has anywhere near the high floor that Mcdonald might have. I watched a few SANFL games of Thilthorpe’s early in the season, and it’s true that he has elite speed, co-ordination and skills for a guy that size. He even manhandled SANFL men in the passages I saw, so his strength and power is very impressive too. But, he does carry that risk of not really dominating any one role or position, and being a bit of a floater in the team that has a few plays a game where you’re amazed, but doesn’t consistently make game changing plays. You’d really be backing your coach, development staff and game plan to get the most out of him potential wise (and then you could have a special player on your hands). If the Crows think they can do that – it might be worth trading down if another team really wants Mcdonald. I saw Knightmare mention recently about taller athletic players like Tim English and Naughton heading up onto a wing and dominating similar to a Richardson or Riewoldt – which I generally agree is an option. If you get an innovative team that can find a good role like this for Thilthorpe, I think he could be an incredibly hard matchup for opposing players, and could really excel floating between the wing and the I50.



- If I had to pick one player that is a ‘Hamish Ogilvie type of player’ in this draft, it’s Denver Grainger Barass. He’s a backman, which Ogilvie loves, and he has the high football IQ and all the intangibles which Ogilvie also loves. Plus he's accomplished at national championships level (last year), and now at WAFL level.



- I can’t read Ogilvie overall. He really could end up doing anything with that first pick.



Our list (comments on random players):



Stengle – interesting that no one is talking about him more. Showed some serious talent and some consistency in the latter half of this season, but man – what’s that – 2 or 3 police infractions (drink driving and now drugs) in the last 1 to 2 years? I like the guy – but, it’s slightly concerning.



B Crouch – I actually rate Brad, and given his age, talent and experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to him staying if he wanted to accept a 4 year deal on reasonable money. But, having said that, I think he is very replaceable with guys like Schoenberg coming through, and now Laird (and Smith) joining the mids, along with whoever we draft this year and in the coming years.



McAsey – showed real promise in the pre-season games, but nothing consistent throughout the season. Got absolutely pantsed one v one against some of the game’s best forwards at times. It’s to be expected though for a first year KPP in a bottom ranked team where the ball is coming into the backline frequently, and he also has a first year’s body. Will need to give him time. I do wonder though if McAsey is a true key position back at the AFL level, or more of a zone type intercept defender (he has a good IQ) who can part time play 1 v 1 against the big forwards, and spot you some minutes up forward as a swingman.



Schoenberg – very impressed with his toughness, and short area evasiveness and agility/burst. Showed some good signs in the back half of the season. Can definitely become a starting midfielder if he continues to develop.



Scholl – showing the makings of a star. I hope the Crows continue to give him the license to go centre and forward of centre (instead of mainly back) and allow him to drift forward and use that long kick of his to sniper goals like he was doing at the end of the season. A very damaging player when he’s up that opposing teams need to be very wary of.



Hamill – despite the concussion/s, he’s exactly what we needed … speed and top tier skills. Will be a best 22 player.



C Jones – a very disappointing season overall. Fitness is not an issue, and Nicks gave him plenty of minutes. He just doesn’t find the ball consistently enough to make an impact on games. His best is good – he can be a good user in general play, and he can have those games where he gets you a couple of goals from elite type plays involving his speed and other traits. But, if he doesn’t take a big step forward this season (which he could very realistically do – I’m not writing him off yet), I wonder if the Crows accept that he’s more a 10 possession a game forward that can get you a goal or two and spot you some minutes in the midfield. Something I noticed is that his size hurts him at times in the midfield – he doesn’t have the power or strength to get past players sometimes.



McHenry – tore the roof off in a Crows SANFL finals game in the season pre-COVID, and I thought he was set to feature for a full season in the midfield and forward line this season. You love his tackling pressure, and how opportunistic he can be at times around the ball and around goal. But, will need to show something more this season to nail down a consistent spot.



Butts – great form in the SANFL pre COVID, but was average to below average this season when he got a call up in the senior side. Like McAsey – it doesn’t help as a young tall defender when you play in a bottom ranked side – so you give them somewhat of a pass there. May need another season or two to see what he can offer.



Worrell – obviously can’t make much comment on him due to no SANFL. Where does he fit in long term? I was worried the Crows got fool’s gold when they drafted him. He’s tall and athletic – yes. But, is he a real key back or forward, or does he just play intercept 3rd tall and wing? The problem with the latter is that those players are becoming more common in the AFL these days (look at Ridley from Essendon in his first season). As a sidenote (and I know this will sound like blasphemy to some people), I actually don’t think Doedee is as valuable as some people think he is for this very reason. Good player and a guy they are pegging as the next captain? Yes, absolutely. But, purely based on his positional value and given his injury history too, the Crows would be smart to keep him on a more reasonable contract to reflect both of those things.


Our KP Backs In General - Talia is getting on (and even linked to a trade), and Hartigan has been in trade rumours. Butts and McAsey still raw. Will be interesting to see how we handle this going forward - whether those two latter guys are the answer going forward, whether we draft or trade for another key back, or whether we play more of a zone/help type backline if we don't have two clear designated shut down guys available.


Overall:



Would strongly like to see us take Mcdonald, and then take the best talent available and fill specific depth needs with the remaining picks

Bringing in players like Hately via free agency/trade opportunistically will help with the latter

Wouldn’t put it past Ogilvie to do anything, ranging from trading out of the first (or taking someone left of field), to spreading out picks to future drafts, to trying to trade picks for a big name player on another team

 

[PMBangers]

Some thoughts on the Crows heading into the Draft.



Had some free time today and was bored, so thought I’d put something together.



Just my thoughts and opinions – not claiming to be an expert, or saying these things will happen.



Feel free to critique as you see fit.



Draft:



- Crows would be silly in my opinion not to take McDonald with the first pick.

My rationale is that a) KP forwards like him don’t come around too often (if you look at Knightmare's breakdown on him - he pretty much ticks almost every box ... the growth/improvement he's shown and to be a draftee doing what he's done in the WAFL is insane), and you can either draft them, or you have to be a big Victorian destination club to have good odds of getting them in free agency. Dixon got to Pt Adelaide via trade but he wasn’t the Dixon he is now at that time, and Kennedy got to West Coat, but they had to give up a Chris Judd caliber player to get him, and even Kennedy wasn’t Coleman JK at the time b) Himmelberg and Fogarty are still inconsistent and neither are a sure thing yet … let alone showing the ability to be a #1 forward. c) There’s local mids like Poulter, Cook and Powell the Crows can look to with later picks, or other mids and small/mid sized players, as well as our father sons and academies. Phillips could be a jet based on Junior numbers (stack up favorably compared to Rowell, Anderson and others), and although he makes a compelling case given the Crows lacking top tier A grade talent in the midfield, mids aren’t as rare as KPP’s. Hollands carries risk, and I don’t think he’s unique enough that you want to be taking him with that first pick.



- I think the AFL media is going to pump the heck out of ‘Thilthorpe to Crows’ headlines come closer to the draft. Thilthorpe could be anything, but I don’t think he has anywhere near the high floor that Mcdonald might have. I watched a few SANFL games of Thilthorpe’s early in the season, and it’s true that he has elite speed, co-ordination and skills for a guy that size. He even manhandled SANFL men in the passages I saw, so his strength and power is very impressive too. But, he does carry that risk of not really dominating any one role or position, and being a bit of a floater in the team that has a few plays a game where you’re amazed, but doesn’t consistently make game changing plays. You’d really be backing your coach, development staff and game plan to get the most out of him potential wise (and then you could have a special player on your hands). If the Crows think they can do that – it might be worth trading down if another team really wants Mcdonald. I saw Knightmare mention recently about taller athletic players like Tim English and Naughton heading up onto a wing and dominating similar to a Richardson or Riewoldt – which I generally agree is an option. If you get an innovative team that can find a good role like this for Thilthorpe, I think he could be an incredibly hard matchup for opposing players, and could really excel floating between the wing and the I50.



- If I had to pick one player that is a ‘Hamish Ogilvie type of player’ in this draft, it’s Denver Grainger Barass. He’s a backman, which Ogilvie loves, and he has the high football IQ and all the intangibles which Ogilvie also loves. Plus he's accomplished at national championships level (last year), and now at WAFL level.



- I can’t read Ogilvie overall. He really could end up doing anything with that first pick.



Our list (comments on random players):



Stengle – interesting that no one is talking about him more. Showed some serious talent and some consistency in the latter half of this season, but man – what’s that – 2 or 3 police infractions (drink driving and now drugs) in the last 1 to 2 years? I like the guy – but, it’s slightly concerning.



B Crouch – I actually rate Brad, and given his age, talent and experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to him staying if he wanted to accept a 4 year deal on reasonable money. But, having said that, I think he is very replaceable with guys like Schoenberg coming through, and now Laird (and Smith) joining the mids, along with whoever we draft this year and in the coming years.



McAsey – showed real promise in the pre-season games, but nothing consistent throughout the season. Got absolutely pantsed one v one against some of the game’s best forwards at times. It’s to be expected though for a first year KPP in a bottom ranked team where the ball is coming into the backline frequently, and he also has a first year’s body. Will need to give him time. I do wonder though if McAsey is a true key position back at the AFL level, or more of a zone type intercept defender (he has a good IQ) who can part time play 1 v 1 against the big forwards, and spot you some minutes up forward as a swingman.



Schoenberg – very impressed with his toughness, and short area evasiveness and agility/burst. Showed some good signs in the back half of the season. Can definitely become a starting midfielder if he continues to develop.



Scholl – showing the makings of a star. I hope the Crows continue to give him the license to go centre and forward of centre (instead of mainly back) and allow him to drift forward and use that long kick of his to sniper goals like he was doing at the end of the season. A very damaging player when he’s up that opposing teams need to be very wary of.



Hamill – despite the concussion/s, he’s exactly what we needed … speed and top tier skills. Will be a best 22 player.



C Jones – a very disappointing season overall. Fitness is not an issue, and Nicks gave him plenty of minutes. He just doesn’t find the ball consistently enough to make an impact on games. His best is good – he can be a good user in general play, and he can have those games where he gets you a couple of goals from elite type plays involving his speed and other traits. But, if he doesn’t take a big step forward this season (which he could very realistically do – I’m not writing him off yet), I wonder if the Crows accept that he’s more a 10 possession a game forward that can get you a goal or two and spot you some minutes in the midfield. Something I noticed is that his size hurts him at times in the midfield – he doesn’t have the power or strength to get past players sometimes.



McHenry – tore the roof off in a Crows SANFL finals game in the season pre-COVID, and I thought he was set to feature for a full season in the midfield and forward line this season. You love his tackling pressure, and how opportunistic he can be at times around the ball and around goal. But, will need to show something more this season to nail down a consistent spot.



Butts – great form in the SANFL pre COVID, but was average to below average this season when he got a call up in the senior side. Like McAsey – it doesn’t help as a young tall defender when you play in a bottom ranked side – so you give them somewhat of a pass there. May need another season or two to see what he can offer.



Worrell – obviously can’t make much comment on him due to no SANFL. Where does he fit in long term? I was worried the Crows got fool’s gold when they drafted him. He’s tall and athletic – yes. But, is he a real key back or forward, or does he just play intercept 3rd tall and wing? The problem with the latter is that those players are becoming more common in the AFL these days (look at Ridley from Essendon in his first season). As a sidenote (and I know this will sound like blasphemy to some people), I actually don’t think Doedee is as valuable as some people think he is for this very reason. Good player and a guy they are pegging as the next captain? Yes, absolutely. But, purely based on his positional value and given his injury history too, the Crows would be smart to keep him on a more reasonable contract to reflect both of those things.


Our KP Backs In General - Talia is getting on (and even linked to a trade), and Hartigan has been in trade rumours. Butts and McAsey still raw. Will be interesting to see how we handle this going forward - whether those two latter guys are the answer going forward, whether we draft or trade for another key back, or whether we play more of a zone/help type backline if we don't have two clear designated shut down guys available.


Overall:



Would strongly like to see us take Mcdonald, and then take the best talent available and fill specific depth needs with the remaining picks

Bringing in players like Hately via free agency/trade opportunistically will help with the latter

Wouldn’t put it past Ogilvie to do anything, ranging from trading out of the first (or taking someone left of field), to spreading out picks to future drafts, to trying to trade picks for a big name player on another team

Hey mate, we have an Adelaide club focus thread here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/adelaide-what-should-they-do-with-their-picks.1222624/ on the Trade & FA board, this is exactly the type if stuff that can contribute there

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Hey mate, we have an Adelaide club focus thread here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/adelaide-what-should-they-do-with-their-picks.1222624/ on the Trade & FA board, this is exactly the type if stuff that can contribute there

Sure. Let me know if I should delete here, and post it over there

 

[PMBangers]

Sure. Let me know if I should delete here, and post it over there

Probably don't have to delete it here but feel free to copy it over

 

[Knightmare]

Some thoughts on the Crows heading into the Draft.



Had some free time today and was bored, so thought I’d put something together.



Just my thoughts and opinions – not claiming to be an expert, or saying these things will happen.



Feel free to critique as you see fit.



Draft:



- Crows would be silly in my opinion not to take McDonald with the first pick.

My rationale is that a) KP forwards like him don’t come around too often (if you look at Knightmare's breakdown on him - he pretty much ticks almost every box ... the growth/improvement he's shown and to be a draftee doing what he's done in the WAFL is insane), and you can either draft them, or you have to be a big Victorian destination club to have good odds of getting them in free agency. Dixon got to Pt Adelaide via trade but he wasn’t the Dixon he is now at that time, and Kennedy got to West Coat, but they had to give up a Chris Judd caliber player to get him, and even Kennedy wasn’t Coleman JK at the time b) Himmelberg and Fogarty are still inconsistent and neither are a sure thing yet … let alone showing the ability to be a #1 forward. c) There’s local mids like Poulter, Cook and Powell the Crows can look to with later picks, or other mids and small/mid sized players, as well as our father sons and academies. Phillips could be a jet based on Junior numbers (stack up favorably compared to Rowell, Anderson and others), and although he makes a compelling case given the Crows lacking top tier A grade talent in the midfield, mids aren’t as rare as KPP’s. Hollands carries risk, and I don’t think he’s unique enough that you want to be taking him with that first pick.



- I think the AFL media is going to pump the heck out of ‘Thilthorpe to Crows’ headlines come closer to the draft. Thilthorpe could be anything, but I don’t think he has anywhere near the high floor that Mcdonald might have. I watched a few SANFL games of Thilthorpe’s early in the season, and it’s true that he has elite speed, co-ordination and skills for a guy that size. He even manhandled SANFL men in the passages I saw, so his strength and power is very impressive too. But, he does carry that risk of not really dominating any one role or position, and being a bit of a floater in the team that has a few plays a game where you’re amazed, but doesn’t consistently make game changing plays. You’d really be backing your coach, development staff and game plan to get the most out of him potential wise (and then you could have a special player on your hands). If the Crows think they can do that – it might be worth trading down if another team really wants Mcdonald. I saw Knightmare mention recently about taller athletic players like Tim English and Naughton heading up onto a wing and dominating similar to a Richardson or Riewoldt – which I generally agree is an option. If you get an innovative team that can find a good role like this for Thilthorpe, I think he could be an incredibly hard matchup for opposing players, and could really excel floating between the wing and the I50.



- If I had to pick one player that is a ‘Hamish Ogilvie type of player’ in this draft, it’s Denver Grainger Barass. He’s a backman, which Ogilvie loves, and he has the high football IQ and all the intangibles which Ogilvie also loves. Plus he's accomplished at national championships level (last year), and now at WAFL level.



- I can’t read Ogilvie overall. He really could end up doing anything with that first pick.



Our list (comments on random players):



Stengle – interesting that no one is talking about him more. Showed some serious talent and some consistency in the latter half of this season, but man – what’s that – 2 or 3 police infractions (drink driving and now drugs) in the last 1 to 2 years? I like the guy – but, it’s slightly concerning.



B Crouch – I actually rate Brad, and given his age, talent and experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to him staying if he wanted to accept a 4 year deal on reasonable money. But, having said that, I think he is very replaceable with guys like Schoenberg coming through, and now Laird (and Smith) joining the mids, along with whoever we draft this year and in the coming years.



McAsey – showed real promise in the pre-season games, but nothing consistent throughout the season. Got absolutely pantsed one v one against some of the game’s best forwards at times. It’s to be expected though for a first year KPP in a bottom ranked team where the ball is coming into the backline frequently, and he also has a first year’s body. Will need to give him time. I do wonder though if McAsey is a true key position back at the AFL level, or more of a zone type intercept defender (he has a good IQ) who can part time play 1 v 1 against the big forwards, and spot you some minutes up forward as a swingman.



Schoenberg – very impressed with his toughness, and short area evasiveness and agility/burst. Showed some good signs in the back half of the season. Can definitely become a starting midfielder if he continues to develop.



Scholl – showing the makings of a star. I hope the Crows continue to give him the license to go centre and forward of centre (instead of mainly back) and allow him to drift forward and use that long kick of his to sniper goals like he was doing at the end of the season. A very damaging player when he’s up that opposing teams need to be very wary of.



Hamill – despite the concussion/s, he’s exactly what we needed … speed and top tier skills. Will be a best 22 player.



C Jones – a very disappointing season overall. Fitness is not an issue, and Nicks gave him plenty of minutes. He just doesn’t find the ball consistently enough to make an impact on games. His best is good – he can be a good user in general play, and he can have those games where he gets you a couple of goals from elite type plays involving his speed and other traits. But, if he doesn’t take a big step forward this season (which he could very realistically do – I’m not writing him off yet), I wonder if the Crows accept that he’s more a 10 possession a game forward that can get you a goal or two and spot you some minutes in the midfield. Something I noticed is that his size hurts him at times in the midfield – he doesn’t have the power or strength to get past players sometimes.



McHenry – tore the roof off in a Crows SANFL finals game in the season pre-COVID, and I thought he was set to feature for a full season in the midfield and forward line this season. You love his tackling pressure, and how opportunistic he can be at times around the ball and around goal. But, will need to show something more this season to nail down a consistent spot.



Butts – great form in the SANFL pre COVID, but was average to below average this season when he got a call up in the senior side. Like McAsey – it doesn’t help as a young tall defender when you play in a bottom ranked side – so you give them somewhat of a pass there. May need another season or two to see what he can offer.



Worrell – obviously can’t make much comment on him due to no SANFL. Where does he fit in long term? I was worried the Crows got fool’s gold when they drafted him. He’s tall and athletic – yes. But, is he a real key back or forward, or does he just play intercept 3rd tall and wing? The problem with the latter is that those players are becoming more common in the AFL these days (look at Ridley from Essendon in his first season). As a sidenote (and I know this will sound like blasphemy to some people), I actually don’t think Doedee is as valuable as some people think he is for this very reason. Good player and a guy they are pegging as the next captain? Yes, absolutely. But, purely based on his positional value and given his injury history too, the Crows would be smart to keep him on a more reasonable contract to reflect both of those things.


Our KP Backs In General - Talia is getting on (and even linked to a trade), and Hartigan has been in trade rumours. Butts and McAsey still raw. Will be interesting to see how we handle this going forward - whether those two latter guys are the answer going forward, whether we draft or trade for another key back, or whether we play more of a zone/help type backline if we don't have two clear designated shut down guys available.


Overall:



Would strongly like to see us take Mcdonald, and then take the best talent available and fill specific depth needs with the remaining picks

Bringing in players like Hately via free agency/trade opportunistically will help with the latter

Wouldn’t put it past Ogilvie to do anything, ranging from trading out of the first (or taking someone left of field), to spreading out picks to future drafts, to trying to trade picks for a big name player on another team

Agree obviously on McDonald.

Will be interesting to see how Adelaide handle B.Crouch/Stengle.

Will anyone pay up big for Crouch now? A wait and see perhaps.

Adelaide may want to move both on given they're a young team looking to develop a new, positive culture.

McAsey needs time. He's a first year KPP. It's rare they look even reasonable at AFL level in year 1. Expect in year 4 for him to establish himself as a good-very good KPP. Adelaide traditionally have been one of the best at developing KPPs, will be interesting to see if they still have that. With Fogarty not coming along as quickly as hoped, whatever Adelaide were once doing they need to get back to with their big men.

Schoenberg is a piece and needs more games. He's a good mid and can get better. I'd consider him a regular in 2021 if his preseason is strong.

Sholl is doing damage and should continue to get utilised in 2021, but will need to develop a contested side to his game to have staying power and become a more complete player.

Hamill also needs to develop that contested side to his game but is worth giving a run of games in 2021 to see whether he'll be a long term piece also.

Chayce Jones needs to improve dramatically. I got a lot of stick this time last year from Adelaide fans for saying that Jones and McHenry were the two worst taken inside the top-20 in 2018, but 12 months on it's looking even more clear cut. Both still have chances to have a career, but neither are looking like certain long term pieces and need to lift respectively.

McHenry's game is based on endurance and pressure. Maybe as that pressure forward he finds a role. Maybe, but less likely it's up on a wing. I'm not yet seeing that position he plays to an AFL standard, but hopefully it's as that forward.

Butts I'd like for Adelaide to persist with. Like you my view is another year would be good, as there is still in my view some untapped upside. But he'll need to get in the gym and get stronger and become better 1v1 to add to his intercepting game.

Worrell has scope to develop and some attributes but will need to find a clear best position. That lack of a clear best position is why he wasn't inside my top-20 last year. Defence may be his best shot, but he gives you options if developed well.

Doedee I like, but durability has been atrocious. Drafted in 2015 and he's only played 30 games? He's someone where if I could attract a meaningful return for him, I'd contemplate trading. Durability is the best ability, and if you've got a guy who is rated highly by opposition list managers who can't get on the park, and they're happy to trade a lot for him. I'd move on from that. Could Doedee attract a first and a second round pick from Geelong if he was on the trade table?

There are key defenders a plenty out there. Aliir Aliir, Tom McDonald (he's better in defence), Majak Daw (delisted), Marcus Adams, Lewis Young, Jon Marsh. None of those guys should break the bank. There are also key forwards everywhere who could be flipped into defence. Peter Wright, Josh Bruce, Shaun McKernan, Josh Schache are among those top of mind I feel would be more successful as key defenders than key forwards. None of these guys should require much to get, with only maybe Aliir Aliir likely to cost anything much to acquire.

GWS have so many surplus players. Why not go for a Jye Caldwell, Jackson Hately package? Alex Witherden and Jordan Clark are underutilised and could be worth a look.

This offseason I view as the ultimate transfer of wealth. Clubs that get active this offseason and make moves to get players who can improve their best 22s. There is potential for clubs to make very quick jumps and improvements if they've scouted rival lists well and have identified those who could fit into their own best 22s of those who are underused.

 

[kickthething]

Does anyone think there will be any Victorian footy before the draft, an All Stars game of something similar?

 

[Knightmare]

Does anyone think there will be any Victorian footy before the draft, an All Stars game of something similar?

Nothing is planned at this stage that I'm aware of.

It would have to be something very last minute.

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Agree obviously on McDonald.

Will be interesting to see how Adelaide handle B.Crouch/Stengle.

Will anyone pay up big for Crouch now? A wait and see perhaps.

Adelaide may want to move both on given they're a young team looking to develop a new, positive culture.

McAsey needs time. He's a first year KPP. It's rare they look even reasonable at AFL level in year 1. Expect in year 4 for him to establish himself as a good-very good KPP. Adelaide traditionally have been one of the best at developing KPPs, will be interesting to see if they still have that. With Fogarty not coming along as quickly as hoped, whatever Adelaide were once doing they need to get back to with their big men.

Schoenberg is a piece and needs more games. He's a good mid and can get better. I'd consider him a regular in 2021 if his preseason is strong.

Sholl is doing damage and should continue to get utilised in 2021, but will need to develop a contested side to his game to have staying power and become a more complete player.

Hamill also needs to develop that contested side to his game but is worth giving a run of games in 2021 to see whether he'll be a long term piece also.

Chayce Jones needs to improve dramatically. I got a lot of stick this time last year from Adelaide fans for saying that Jones and McHenry were the two worst taken inside the top-20 in 2018, but 12 months on it's looking even more clear cut. Both still have chances to have a career, but neither are looking like certain long term pieces and need to lift respectively.

McHenry's game is based on endurance and pressure. Maybe as that pressure forward he finds a role. Maybe, but less likely it's up on a wing. I'm not yet seeing that position he plays to an AFL standard, but hopefully it's as that forward.

Butts I'd like for Adelaide to persist with. Like you my view is another year would be good, as there is still in my view some untapped upside. But he'll need to get in the gym and get stronger and become better 1v1 to add to his intercepting game.

Worrell has scope to develop and some attributes but will need to find a clear best position. That lack of a clear best position is why he wasn't inside my top-20 last year. Defence may be his best shot, but he gives you options if developed well.

Doedee I like, but durability has been atrocious. Drafted in 2015 and he's only played 30 games? He's someone where if I could attract a meaningful return for him, I'd contemplate trading. Durability is the best ability, and if you've got a guy who is rated highly by opposition list managers who can't get on the park, and they're happy to trade a lot for him. I'd move on from that. Could Doedee attract a first and a second round pick from Geelong if he was on the trade table?

There are key defenders a plenty out there. Aliir Aliir, Tom McDonald (he's better in defence), Majak Daw (delisted), Marcus Adams, Lewis Young, Jon Marsh. None of those guys should break the bank. There are also key forwards everywhere who could be flipped into defence. Peter Wright, Josh Bruce, Shaun McKernan, Josh Schache, Billy Frampton are among those top of mind I feel would be more successful as key defenders than key forwards. None of these guys should require much to get, with only maybe Aliir Aliir likely to cost anything much to acquire.

GWS have so many surplus players. Why not go for a Jye Caldwell, Jackson Hately package? Alex Witherden and Jordan Clark are underutilised and could be worth a look.

This offseason I view as the ultimate transfer of wealth. Clubs that get active this offseason and make moves to get players who can improve their best 22s. There is potential for clubs to make very quick jumps and improvements if they've scouted rival lists well and have identified those who could fit into their own best 22s of those who are underused.

B Crouch - as far as I can remember, his record was crystal clear before this, and he's been quite professional throughout his career. Seems like very very unlucky timing. Other clubs would have ammo to lower their offer now though if they wanted to (especially if there is going to be some PR drama they have to deal with) - in which case, Adelaide has a tough call to make if that happens. Lots of moving parts to consider.

Stengle - you're definitely right about the Crows wanting to establish that culture. But, Stengle showed some very very good signs to close out the season (he's impossible to tackle inside 50 even in congestion sometimes because of his play sense and agility/evasiveness ... and when his kicking is on, he can give you 2 or 3 goals in his sleep), and that small forward position has a lot of value and can be hard to nail down ... Just ask Melbourne or the Western Bulldogs (I consider Mitch Wallis a medium forward) who have had to go to the Draft to fill it the last few years. Another tough call. You'd think if he stays, the Crows will make it very clear he's on his very last chance. The Crows could bring in Newchurch this year - but, it seems a gigantic step back getting rid of Stengle for a first year draftee. The Crows will be wanting to carry that momentum from the end of this season into the start of next.

McAsey - the losing visibly looked pretty tough on him confidence wise this year from what I saw - I'm assuming it hasn't done anything to his psyche. I'm still definitely up overall on him like you though. I like your reassurance about his KPP trajectory.

Fogarty - incredibly up and down career so far, and it would be fair to say he's been reasonably enigmatic. I was among those saying when there was 5 or so games left in the season (when there was issues raised internally about him not being fit enough to play) that if he didn't start stepping up, that he could be out of the AFL altogether in a couple of years. But, he finished off the season quite well. If you watch the last 3 or 4 games of the season closely - he showed elite field kicking, decision making, and setting up of play and teammates for goal assists or score involvements. If you add that to the goal kicking (especially on those short hit up leads where he excels in my opinion, rather than trying to be a traditional contested marking forward), and the tackling (when he turns up with the mindset to do it and be active, he can get you 4 or 5 tackles in a game, which is a high number for a non small forward ... he doesn't do it anywhere near consistently enough though, and if he's playing as a third 'tall' forward, he becomes a liability when you don't have the ball) - you have a player who can contribute in multiple ways other than just kicking goals. Would do well in the future if Nicks helps him really refine his role and game to emphasize the specific areas he personally excels in, and focus and magnify in on them.

Schoenberg - I didn't realize how thick he was across the shoulders and through the upper body until I saw him up close. Doesn't get bullied or phased by anyone, and even roughs up other players at times. He does a lot of things at least to a reasonable standard. Very solid 'All rounder' with grunt is how I'd describe him.

Sholl - you make a very good point about his contested game - you're spot on, and definitely agree. Some non contested parts of his game though are already very very good. People already talk about the kicking, but, his natural understanding of where to be and how to finish some plays you can't teach to some players. Agree he will need to continue to build. Needs to fill out that frame too and eventually get some added 'wiry' strength (similar to an Isaac Smith), as it's likely he's never going to be the bulkiest of players.

Hamill - I'm bullish on Hamill if he can stay injury free. You can visibly see that he was very much playing on manufactured confidence in the games he did play. Once he really settles in mentally, and gets more games and experience in, I think he can be a very serviceable line breaking half back for a team. I was surprised with how good his composure and decision making was this season when he got a chance to play. I'd heard about his athletics background and kicking, but he was more refined than I expected in some ways.

Jones - I think we both agree on him. Stepping up is his only option next season.

McHenry - to be fair, he's had two reasonably injury interrupted seasons in a row. Has far more of an excuse than Jones does. Agree though he needs to make a position his this season at AFL level. Needs to get a clear run at it to do that. His best footy is tackling, pressure, disrupting, stripping and poking away possession, niggling, setting the tone, sharking balls, and kicking goals from half chances.

Doedee - I'm very very onboard with your idea of a Doedee trade ... I think it presents great value for the Crows. But, I can't see it realistically happening. I hate to dump on Adelaide, but our supporter base and city is very clicky and close minded in some ways, and Doedee is a favorite of a fair few. I think the club would be scared of the backlash, and I'm not even sure the club itself understands how replaceable Doedee could be (or how much they could grow if they allocated those resources they are tying into him elsewhere)

Caldwell - I don't think the Crows have much of a chance of landing him. Caldwell is Victorian, and the Vic clubs have more pull to get him onboard anyway. Hately seems very gettable though.

Available KP Backs - you make good points about those players Knightmare. Crows would do well to consider them

Transfer of wealth - another very good point. Although clubs have to be mindful to a certain extent of list sizes going forward too (if you're bringing multiple players in, you have to know how many existing players you can keep too). I'm not sure who else the Crows go after though who can move the needle for them and who they have a need for. People say Lukosius and Rankine - but, there's zero chance Gold Coast are letting either of them go unless either of them were about to come to an end of their contract and demanded to leave. Jack Graham has already re-signed at Richmond. Fantasia might come to the Crows - but, what chance is he of playing a full season even if he does get here? For the Crows specifically, I think they can see some good improvement from the Draft for now. Natural improvement in this way may lead to players wanting to come to the Club in future seasons and give the club a bit more leverage rather than having to sell the farm to pry away a big gun from a GWS for example (bringing in young kids in the draft fits our timeline better for now too). Who knows what Ogilvie has brewing behind the scenes though - something big could be in the works.
I agree that Witherden and Clark, and similar players could thrive on other teams with the need for them. Just look at what Dan Butler did this year

 

[Mojorisin]

Sholl is doing damage and should continue to get utilised in 2021, but will need to develop a contested side to his game to have staying power and become a more complete player.

I've said from sholls first game that he reminds of Bob Murphy not just in build but the way he moves

 

[Knightmare]

B Crouch - as far as I can remember, his record was crystal clear before this, and he's been quite professional throughout his career. Seems like very very unlucky timing. Other clubs would have ammo to lower their offer now though if they wanted to (especially if there is going to be some PR drama they have to deal with) - in which case, Adelaide has a tough call to make if that happens. Lots of moving parts to consider.

Stengle - you're definitely right about the Crows wanting to establish that culture. But, Stengle showed some very very good signs to close out the season (he's impossible to tackle inside 50 even in congestion sometimes because of his play sense and agility/evasiveness ... and when his kicking is on, he can give you 2 or 3 goals in his sleep), and that small forward position has a lot of value and can be hard to nail down ... Just ask Melbourne or the Western Bulldogs (I consider Mitch Wallis a medium forward) who have had to go to the Draft to fill it the last few years. Another tough call. You'd think if he stays, the Crows will make it very clear he's on his very last chance. The Crows could bring in Newchurch this year - but, it seems a gigantic step back getting rid of Stengle for a first year draftee. The Crows will be wanting to carry that momentum from the end of this season into the start of next.

McAsey - the losing visibly looked pretty tough on him confidence wise this year from what I saw - I'm assuming it hasn't done anything to his psyche. I'm still definitely up overall on him like you though. I like your reassurance about his KPP trajectory.

Fogarty - incredibly up and down career so far, and it would be fair to say he's been reasonably enigmatic. I was among those saying when there was 5 or so games left in the season (when there was issues raised internally about him not being fit enough to play) that if he didn't start stepping up, that he could be out of the AFL altogether in a couple of years. But, he finished off the season quite well. If you watch the last 3 or 4 games of the season closely - he showed elite field kicking, decision making, and setting up of play and teammates for goal assists or score involvements. If you add that to the goal kicking (especially on those short hit up leads where he excels in my opinion, rather than trying to be a traditional contested marking forward), and the tackling (when he turns up with the mindset to do it and be active, he can get you 4 or 5 tackles in a game, which is a high number for a non small forward ... he doesn't do it anywhere near consistently enough though, and if he's playing as a third 'tall' forward, he becomes a liability when you don't have the ball) - you have a player who can contribute in multiple ways other than just kicking goals. Would do well in the future if Nicks helps him really refine his role and game to emphasize the specific areas he personally excels in, and focus and magnify in on them.

Schoenberg - I didn't realize how thick he was across the shoulders and through the upper body until I saw him up close. Doesn't get bullied or phased by anyone, and even roughs up other players at times. He does a lot of things at least to a reasonable standard. Very solid 'All rounder' with grunt is how I'd describe him.

Sholl - you make a very good point about his contested game - you're spot on, and definitely agree. Some non contested parts of his game though are already very very good. People already talk about the kicking, but, his natural understanding of where to be and how to finish some plays you can't teach to some players. Agree he will need to continue to build. Needs to fill out that frame too and eventually get some added 'wiry' strength (similar to an Isaac Smith), as it's likely he's never going to be the bulkiest of players.

Hamill - I'm bullish on Hamill if he can stay injury free. You can visibly see that he was very much playing on manufactured confidence in the games he did play. Once he really settles in mentally, and gets more games and experience in, I think he can be a very serviceable line breaking half back for a team. I was surprised with how good his composure and decision making was this season when he got a chance to play. I'd heard about his athletics background and kicking, but he was more refined than I expected in some ways.

Jones - I think we both agree on him. Stepping up is his only option next season.

McHenry - to be fair, he's had two reasonably injury interrupted seasons in a row. Has far more of an excuse than Jones does. Agree though he needs to make a position his this season at AFL level. Needs to get a clear run at it to do that. His best footy is tackling, pressure, disrupting, stripping and poking away possession, niggling, setting the tone, sharking balls, and kicking goals from half chances.

Doedee - I'm very very onboard with your idea of a Doedee trade ... I think it presents great value for the Crows. But, I can't see it realistically happening. I hate to dump on Adelaide, but our supporter base and city is very clicky and close minded in some ways, and Doedee is a favorite of a fair few. I think the club would be scared of the backlash, and I'm not even sure the club itself understands how replaceable Doedee could be (or how much they could grow if they allocated those resources they are tying into him elsewhere)

Caldwell - I don't think the Crows have much of a chance of landing him. Caldwell is Victorian, and the Vic clubs have more pull to get him onboard anyway. Hately seems very gettable though.

Available KP Backs - you make good points about those players Knightmare. Crows would do well to consider them

Transfer of wealth - another very good point. Although clubs have to be mindful to a certain extent of list sizes going forward too (if you're bringing multiple players in, you have to know how many existing players you can keep too). I'm not sure who else the Crows go after though who can move the needle for them and who they have a need for. People say Lukosius and Rankine - but, there's zero chance Gold Coast are letting either of them go unless either of them were about to come to an end of their contract and demanded to leave. Jack Graham has already re-signed at Richmond. Fantasia might come to the Crows - but, what chance is he of playing a full season even if he does get here? For the Crows specifically, I think they can see some good improvement from the Draft for now. Natural improvement in this way may lead to players wanting to come to the Club in future seasons and give the club a bit more leverage rather than having to sell the farm to pry away a big gun from a GWS for example (bringing in young kids in the draft fits our timeline better for now too). Who knows what Ogilvie has brewing behind the scenes though - something big could be in the works.
I agree that Witherden and Clark, and similar players could thrive on other teams with the need for them. Just look at what Dan Butler did this year

I agree with you on Stengle given his play this year, though in the right trade could be moved on from. Depends on the clubs level of concern.

Adelaide won't move Doedee, it's just if I was list manager given his lack of durability he's someone if a club made a big offer I'd move on from. It's one of those moves that can net some picks, and allow for a combination of undervalued players to be added to improve the list.

Lukosius and Rankine I feel like are happy for now on the Gold Coast.

Fantasia I wouldn't pay heavily for, he's a nice to have who at the right price is a good get, given durability, no club should be paying full value for him.

Caldwell is Victorian, but he's one with Green set to rise and the sheer numbers in that GWS midfield I'd be advising move on if there is strong offer elsewhere for greater opportunity to be featured, and for Adelaide he could take on a really prominent role, as with Hately. I wouldn't limit myself to players from just SA during trade periods, there is still great scope to take guys who either aren't regulars or may be looking to play expanded roles. Adelaide as a team with a lot of list holes at the moment, it's a scenario where a lot of players on club lists would be feeling like could be best 22 players. That's the opportunity Adelaide need to realise and go look for guys externally where they'd be clear best 22 players who can improve the side, and I'm finding across all team lists there are guys outside best 22 who should be regulars but for one reason or another are out of favour and not getting the opportunities they deserve. Caldwell is hardly the only midfielder, there are a staggering number of good ones available.

 

[ray8182]

That's precisely how I view Jenkins. His record is achievement that very few match when you go through the names in a number of the key categories.



Second round is roughly Laurie's range.

Laurie plays with good energy and effort and gives those second and third tackle efforts. Has good agility and evasion. But then also is a really nice ball user and lowers his eyes and hits those i50 targets. He offers minimal scoreboard impact and has limited scope through the midfield as the contested side of his game is only okay, but otherwise is a handy small forward. I'd like the contested side of his game to improve his probability of a career.

I brought up bailey Laurie because l was interested in this years small forwards.

Last year we had Pickett and Weightman taken in the first round. Are there any small forwards in this years draft that might be worth a first round pick?


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Agree obviously on McDonald.

Will be interesting to see how Adelaide handle B.Crouch/Stengle.

Will anyone pay up big for Crouch now? A wait and see perhaps.

Adelaide may want to move both on given they're a young team looking to develop a new, positive culture.

McAsey needs time. He's a first year KPP. It's rare they look even reasonable at AFL level in year 1. Expect in year 4 for him to establish himself as a good-very good KPP. Adelaide traditionally have been one of the best at developing KPPs, will be interesting to see if they still have that. With Fogarty not coming along as quickly as hoped, whatever Adelaide were once doing they need to get back to with their big men.

Schoenberg is a piece and needs more games. He's a good mid and can get better. I'd consider him a regular in 2021 if his preseason is strong.

Sholl is doing damage and should continue to get utilised in 2021, but will need to develop a contested side to his game to have staying power and become a more complete player.

Hamill also needs to develop that contested side to his game but is worth giving a run of games in 2021 to see whether he'll be a long term piece also.

Chayce Jones needs to improve dramatically. I got a lot of stick this time last year from Adelaide fans for saying that Jones and McHenry were the two worst taken inside the top-20 in 2018, but 12 months on it's looking even more clear cut. Both still have chances to have a career, but neither are looking like certain long term pieces and need to lift respectively.

McHenry's game is based on endurance and pressure. Maybe as that pressure forward he finds a role. Maybe, but less likely it's up on a wing. I'm not yet seeing that position he plays to an AFL standard, but hopefully it's as that forward.

Butts I'd like for Adelaide to persist with. Like you my view is another year would be good, as there is still in my view some untapped upside. But he'll need to get in the gym and get stronger and become better 1v1 to add to his intercepting game.

Worrell has scope to develop and some attributes but will need to find a clear best position. That lack of a clear best position is why he wasn't inside my top-20 last year. Defence may be his best shot, but he gives you options if developed well.

Doedee I like, but durability has been atrocious. Drafted in 2015 and he's only played 30 games? He's someone where if I could attract a meaningful return for him, I'd contemplate trading. Durability is the best ability, and if you've got a guy who is rated highly by opposition list managers who can't get on the park, and they're happy to trade a lot for him. I'd move on from that. Could Doedee attract a first and a second round pick from Geelong if he was on the trade table?

There are key defenders a plenty out there. Aliir Aliir, Tom McDonald (he's better in defence), Majak Daw (delisted), Marcus Adams, Lewis Young, Jon Marsh. None of those guys should break the bank. There are also key forwards everywhere who could be flipped into defence. Peter Wright, Josh Bruce, Shaun McKernan, Josh Schache are among those top of mind I feel would be more successful as key defenders than key forwards. None of these guys should require much to get, with only maybe Aliir Aliir likely to cost anything much to acquire.

GWS have so many surplus players. Why not go for a Jye Caldwell, Jackson Hately package? Alex Witherden and Jordan Clark are underutilised and could be worth a look.

This offseason I view as the ultimate transfer of wealth. Clubs that get active this offseason and make moves to get players who can improve their best 22s. There is potential for clubs to make very quick jumps and improvements if they've scouted rival lists well and have identified those who could fit into their own best 22s of those who are underused.

Peter wright had the acceleration of a tugboat. Don’t think he could successfully play on many forwards.