Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Dockeroo said:
Hawthorn a top 8 side? Seriously? They are bottom 4 with one of the oldest lists in the comp and very few decent players u23 apart from Will Day.
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Read it again
 
Knightmare said:
Whether Brad Crouch goes and for enough for Adelaide to get pick 2 as compensation may matter.

Adel/NM should absorb McDonald/Thilthorpe in some order. Hollands and DGB are probably those next two in some order. That leaves Phillips. If Adelaide have that extra pick, then Phillips is probably that next guy chosen. *I'm working under the assumption WBD and Syd don't change anything much with JUH to go somewhere in that range and Campbell I'm assuming after the Sydney first pick.

If Phillips isn't going to be there, I wouldn't be coveting the pick and would prefer to keep Treloar, as I'm not seeing anything like Treloar and 1st round pick getting a say Lukosius, as much as incredible as a trade like that would be.
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Interesting, I think it's virtually impossible for Crouch to get them pick 2, let's not consider that case.

Anyhow, it sounds like Phillips will likely be there at pick 5. Now that's really attractive, and although I haven't seen him in action, he does fit my list management philosophy of selecting high-quality, low-risk midfielders with early picks, as people continue to overrate key position players year after year after year.

Just out of interest, what's Phillip's kicking skills like, do you have a player comparison? Judging on his highlight videos, he doesn't seem overly quick or damaging with ball in hand. Reminds me of Lachie Neale. He must accumulate similar numbers right? Otherwise it's just gonna be James Aish all over again (strong underage performance but unable to translate into an AFL midfielder due to frame).
 
bone2468 said:
Any opinion on who fremantle might select with there first pick?
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I'd like to see what Fremantle do during the trade period first before connecting a player to the pick. Does the pick move? Which players are added?

A smokie and it's earlier than anyone else has suggested, I'm not sure anyone outside clubland has him inside their top-20 yet, but I wouldn't be shocked if Fremantle took a liking towards Brayden Cook with that pick. I think he'll go earlier than the public and media to date have guessed. After that top 7-8 or so, the draft for mine opens up and Cook is one among many in the next bracket and we may see some clubs take a liking to a few different guys to those who have been more widely predicted.

nelk boys said:
Hey, What do you think would be better for Hawthorn - picking up Hollands with pick 4 or working a deal to trade that pick for two other players of Perkin's and O.Henry alongside Downie.
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For me the quality is up the top end of the draft.

If Perkins and Henry (not in my top-25 power rankings) is all I can get if moving down, I'd much rather Hollands.

I'd want something more like a Bruhn/Macrae and a Chapman/Cook/Perkins/Powell to feel it's worth moving down this year, otherwise I'd prefer to test my luck with a later pick as there are some who seem underappreciated this year, as happens largely every year.

Dockeroo said:
Hawthorn a top 8 side? Seriously? They are bottom 4 with one of the oldest lists in the comp and very few decent players u23 apart from Will Day.
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I don't have Hawthorn in my top-8, nor my top-10 going into next year.

Most teams will go into a given season with top-8 ambitions. It's a cop out for a playing group if you're not. No playing group wants to play for pick 1, they'll get cut if they perform that badly that that happens. It's like no one would have picked the Suns to finish top-8 coming into the season, but getting off to such a strong start after a few rounds before that Rowell injury some thought it may be possible.

And in this context, my comment is Hawthorn going off comments I've heard from Clarkson that indicate that they think they can contend for a top-8 position again in 2021.

I agree Hawthorn's youth is poor, as it has been for largely the past 10 years. It's their established players they'll be hoping do more next year, and maybe add a few others to add further to their best 22. And maybe they come close. My personal view is they're better than their ladder position this season. Probably a 10-15 team to guess, though maybe the better end of that if they have a good trade period.
 

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Prochard123 said:
Interesting, I think it's virtually impossible for Crouch to get them pick 2, let's not consider that case.

Anyhow, it sounds like Phillips will likely be there at pick 5. Now that's really attractive, and although I haven't seen him in action, he does fit my list management philosophy of selecting high-quality, low-risk midfielders with early picks, as people continue to overrate key position players year after year after year.

Just out of interest, what's Phillip's kicking skills like, do you have a player comparison? Judging on his highlight videos, he doesn't seem overly quick or damaging with ball in hand. Reminds me of Lachie Neale. He must accumulate similar numbers right? Otherwise it's just gonna be James Aish all over again (strong underage performance but unable to translate into an AFL midfielder due to frame).
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I did a video breakdown for my YouTube if you're interested re. Phillips if you haven't seen that already.

Phillips isn't an awful kick, it's more just a relative weakness in the context of his game as he's so good at everything else, so consistently. Mild inconsistency is all. He can hit targets short, long, finish on goal, he can lower his eyes and hit targets, he even can go for and hit lower bullet passes. Overall, his kicking got better during the season and isn't a major weakness. Decision making mostly pretty good and he'll handball when he doesn't feel like a kick is on. So I'm as comfortable with Phillips as anyone aside from JUH/McDonald, and he's that instant rising star contender who can play a good brand of footy from round 1.

He's definitely very quick. He'll run 30m at speed with ball in hand if you let him and has a good burst of speed he uses frequently at stoppages. He has a desirable speed/endurance mix that he uses to a high level in game. Beyond simply his ball winning/accumulation it's that acceleration from stoppages that is that next best factor to his game. He has a young Treloar level burst for a bit of a feel.

Phillips is as close to a zero risk prospect you could get around pick 5. He has the performances on the board, impacts games and in ways not many others can, and in desirable ways at the next level, while also being a high character guy who approaches the game and his training professionally.

There is no Aish in Phillips. Aish never had the contested capabilities of a Phillips. Aish looked more like a back-flanker/outside type who could push through the midfield v Phillips who is a genuine mid. The risk factor when assessing mids is if they don't win enough of the ball contested. There is no variable more critical when assessing the probability of career in midfielders. And even a year out from getting drafted, Phillips was an approx 10 contested possession per game mid, so that's not a problem at all for him.
 
JUH still top 3? I wonder whether the Dogs will need to match as much as previously expected. Regarding Jamarra, do you see any negative in not seeing him play in a side without Rowell/Anderson. In the early season practice game I watched he played back for a qtr and seemed a bit disinterested. When played forward was the main (only) target so had everyone trying to spot him up which helped the defenders a bit, even with that he took some good contested grabs in the fwd 50, his kicking let him down booting 0.4 or something similar however he was generating enough chances. I think from memory he and Nik Cox may have even matched up during the game so he was dealing with some quality. Do you think there are any questions around Jamarra at all?

I am interested to know why he now may lose the number 1 spot? Is it the lack of playing has meant others have come into more prominence, Adelaide simply won't bother nominating him as they know he will be immediately matched or something else. Whilst it is all academic, I can't really see how he isn't still regarded as the number 1 pick.
 
kickthething said:
JUH still top 3? I wonder whether the Dogs will need to match as much as previously expected. Regarding Jamarra, do you see any negative in not seeing him play in a side without Rowell/Anderson. In the early season practice game I watched he played back for a qtr and seemed a bit disinterested. When played forward was the main (only) target so had everyone trying to spot him up which helped the defenders a bit, even with that he took some good contested grabs in the fwd 50, his kicking let him down booting 0.4 or something similar however he was generating enough chances. I think from memory he and Nik Cox may have even matched up during the game so he was dealing with some quality. Do you think there are any questions around Jamarra at all?

I am interested to know why he now may lose the number 1 spot? Is it the lack of playing has meant others have come into more prominence, Adelaide simply won't bother nominating him as they know he will be immediately matched or something else. Whilst it is all academic, I can't really see how he isn't still regarded as the number 1 pick.
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His goal kicking accuracy is I think what he needs to work on the most.

I haven't seen much to suggest he'll lose number 1? Most of what I'm seeing is that Adelaide will absolutely bid on him.
 
kickthething said:
JUH still top 3? I wonder whether the Dogs will need to match as much as previously expected. Regarding Jamarra, do you see any negative in not seeing him play in a side without Rowell/Anderson. In the early season practice game I watched he played back for a qtr and seemed a bit disinterested. When played forward was the main (only) target so had everyone trying to spot him up which helped the defenders a bit, even with that he took some good contested grabs in the fwd 50, his kicking let him down booting 0.4 or something similar however he was generating enough chances. I think from memory he and Nik Cox may have even matched up during the game so he was dealing with some quality. Do you think there are any questions around Jamarra at all?

I am interested to know why he now may lose the number 1 spot? Is it the lack of playing has meant others have come into more prominence, Adelaide simply won't bother nominating him as they know he will be immediately matched or something else. Whilst it is all academic, I can't really see how he isn't still regarded as the number 1 pick.
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Top 1, top 2. I don't see why Adelaide don't bid pick 1, nor why North Melbourne wouldn't either.

I've seen Jamarra play APS football and APS v AGSV. He's the best footballer on any field he has played on virtually, or at least unless Rowell is sharing the same ground.

I've made a full analysis video on Jamarra *see page one if interested.
Kicking reliability and penetration are his primary issues. Otherwise his marking needs to become more consistent as he can be prone to dropping some marks. If he gets his marking completely right, he can be unstoppable with how unstoppable he is aerially.

Not sure who is suggesting Jamarra isn't the number one pick, but he has been no.1 on my board and has never needed to be moved down, though with McDonald's play for a while there had he averaged 3 goals per game throughout the season, I may have had to have reconsidered.
 
I read Tilthorpe is likely to be rested for the SA All Stars game. Are there any concerns regarding his body. I understand he has groin issues?
 
nelk boys said:
How good will Logan Mcdonald be in the AFL level, also Riley Thilthorpe?
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Logan McDonald if things go right could be something like a Nick Riewoldt or Jeremy Cameron.

Thilthorpe is probably closer to a Josh Jenkins, and for mine a slightly better version.

kickthething said:
I read Tilthorpe is likely to be rested for the SA All Stars game. Are there any concerns regarding his body. I understand he has groin issues?
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Thilthorpe has had some groin issues. He has had a few injury issues these past couple of years. Also ankle and shoulder last year if I understand correctly.

Medical staff will do their checks, but when talking about u18 prospects if they have injuries during those times I don't put too heavily a weighting on it, as history tells us that it doesn't generally carry over to AFL play. It's more a worry when they're older and they get the same injuries that you're in more strife, as guys don't come back from injuries later on as well normally.
A good club should have him stretching and strengthening any areas of weakness to get his body in balance and improve that durability.
 
Knightmare said:
Thilthorpe is probably closer to a Josh Jenkins and for mine a slightly better version.
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Jenkins was a rookie draft pick. Thilthorpe is a potential top 4 pick. I’d be hoping for a bit more that Josh Jenkins output if I’m using pick 3 or 4 on him wouldn’t you?
 
Dockeroo said:
Jenkins was a rookie draft pick. Thilthorpe is a potential top 4 pick. I’d be hoping for a bit more that Josh Jenkins output if I’m using pick 3 or 4 on him wouldn’t you?
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I wouldn't personally use a top-3 pick on Thilthorpe. Ugle-Hagan, McDonald and Phillips are all in my view clearly better. Thilthorpe I consider among that next three.

Jenkins was a basketball convert and a development player in the NBL.

Jenkins kicked 2 goals per year, every year from 2014-2019. Only Jeremy Cameron, Lance Franklin, Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Tom Lynch also accomplished that. That's elite company.

Thilthorpe is much better up the ground, more comfortable playing through the ruck, even more athletic and a more dominant contested mark. He has the endurance where some have speculated he may be able to play wing. So he's the more complete footballer. But at 200cm, there isn't at least that I can think of another appropriate comparison. Joe Daniher perhaps is the other, though I feel like Thilthorpe will fill out much more than a Daniher.
 

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Knightmare said:
I wouldn't personally use a top-3 pick on Thilthorpe. Ugle-Hagan, McDonald and Phillips are all in my view clearly better. Thilthorpe I consider among that next three.

Jenkins was a basketball convert and a development player in the NBL.

Jenkins kicked 2 goals per year, every year from 2014-2019. Only Jeremy Cameron, Lance Franklin, Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Tom Lynch also accomplished that. That's elite company.

Thilthorpe is much better up the ground, more comfortable playing through the ruck, even more athletic and a more dominant contested mark. He has the endurance where some have speculated he may be able to play wing. So he's the more complete footballer. But at 200cm, there isn't at least that I can think of another appropriate comparison. Joe Daniher perhaps is the other, though I feel like Thilthorpe will fill out much more than a Daniher.
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RE Jenkins

As an Adelaide fan - I can say that looking at Jenkins' stats, whilst accurate in some ways, is also misleading in others.

Jenkins was great in a winning side, and also in a side like Adelaide at the time who played a free flowing and higher scoring game (it wasn't just Jenkins kicking goals - Walker, Eddy and our whole forward line flourished in that time). He was able to pump his stats up massively because of this.

His biggest problem though was that he almost completely disappeared or would be a complete non factor in big games, ugly win games, congested (non free flowing games), and heavily contested games where there was a finals type heavy pressure game being played.

It stuck out like dog's ba**s in the season after the Crows Richmond grand final.

His body size didn't match with the natural game he played - he never played consistently like a 195cm+, hulking forward.

The only game I saw him play as a true contested marking key forward was against Richmond at Adelaide Oval where he completely manhandled/destroyed Alex Rance, and that was after local media had consistently said that Jenkins was a 'Joe The Goose' out the back and easy goal forward mainly.

That's a problem with a guy his size who offers you not a lot else but a guy who can operate as a second ruck - you're better off replacing him with a small high pressure forward, or a lesser name but true contested ball or marking forward.

In my opinion, the Western Bulldogs (first) and Richmond (second and more recently) have laid the blueprint for winning finals in the modern era - constant (almost manic) pressure, win contested possession, speed, and finish off your plays.

It's hard to have passengers who don't consistently fit that criteria now.


RE Thilthorpe

I have a very similar view of him to you as an overall prospect.

Athletically, he's in very very rare company in some ways. His quickness, speed, and short area explosiveness for a guy 200cms is elite (his medium to long area speed is also very good). I was very surprised by his strength/power too though - he was moving and throwing around fully grown men at will in the couple of SANFL games I watched him play. His body looks very solid already (if you watch the Central/West game, he makes some of the other players look like boys/juniors when he's in the shot next to them). I'm not sure what his endurance is like in terms of being able to run out full games.

Comparison wise - I don't see him being anything like Jenkins at all, as Thilthorpe is far more comfortable in the contest, seems far far more aggressive, and looks like he's willing to exert his strength and frame far more. If you watch the Sturt and Glenelg games - you see some some good leads and goals, very very aggressive and willing tackling, contested marking, and some great co-ordination, skills and finishing of plays on the run and from a stationary position for a guy that size.
He's almost of blend of a Brody Grundy athletically (similar sizes, similarly co-ordinated, but Thilthorpe far more vertical and lateral explosiveness and I'm assuming less endurance because Grundy is an endurance freak), and a poor man's Tom Lynch when he goes forward (same aggressiveness and tendency towards the contest, but far far less natural forward craft and way less forward impact right now). A good comparison for him right now when he goes forward might be Elliot Himmelberg (Crows Himmelberg), but Thilthorpe has much better natural athleticism and a few other tools Himmelberg doesn't have.

Overall as a prospect, I see natural positional fit, natural positional feel, and consistency of impact being among Thilthorpe's biggest problems and risks at AFL level.
High ceiling - if he can translate his athleticism, strength/power, aggression, contested marking, goal kicking and even tackling as a first or second option tall forward. Very realistic to project him getting 2 to 3 goals a game from the tools listed above in a well structured team with decent to above average forward supply. He also has potential to do damage and give teams positional flexibility forward (could feasibly see him operating either close to or away from goal), but also spot up in the ruck and even on a wing.
But also potentially a low floor if he goes to a poorly run team, a team that doesn't develop him properly, a team that doesn't get him involved in the game plan properly, or if he isn't forced to make at least one role his bread and butter and be consistently impactful/effective at it.
Although Thilthorpe has a decent football IQ and his best plays look very good, JUH and McDonald seem to have a far better natural forward role feel/fit/craft, and more consistent in game tendencies and patterns right now.
 
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Knightmare said:
I wouldn't personally use a top-3 pick on Thilthorpe. Ugle-Hagan, McDonald and Phillips are all in my view clearly better. Thilthorpe I consider among that next three.

Jenkins was a basketball convert and a development player in the NBL.

Jenkins kicked 2 goals per year, every year from 2014-2019. Only Jeremy Cameron, Lance Franklin, Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Tom Lynch also accomplished that. That's elite company.

Thilthorpe is much better up the ground, more comfortable playing through the ruck, even more athletic and a more dominant contested mark. He has the endurance where some have speculated he may be able to play wing. So he's the more complete footballer. But at 200cm, there isn't at least that I can think of another appropriate comparison. Joe Daniher perhaps is the other, though I feel like Thilthorpe will fill out much more than a Daniher.
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My player comparison for thilthorpe would be Kurt Tippett. Do you see that as a fair comparison of his potential?
 
Hey KM. Wanted to ask where you think Jackson Callow will go? Sorry if it’s already been asked. Do you think the pies would be in to him? Reminds me of Jack Darling only a bit taller. If he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder do you think it’s a steal??


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
FNeighbourhoodSpiderman said:
RE Jenkins

As an Adelaide fan - I can say that looking at Jenkins' stats, whilst accurate in some ways, is also misleading in others.

Jenkins was great in a winning side, and also in a side like Adelaide at the time who played a free flowing and higher scoring game (it wasn't just Jenkins kicking goals - Walker, Eddy and our whole forward line flourished in that time). He was able to pump his stats up massively because of this.

His biggest problem though was that he almost completely disappeared or would be a complete non factor in big games, ugly win games, congested (non free flowing games), and heavily contested games where there was a finals type heavy pressure game being played.

It stuck out like dog's ba**s in the season after the Crows Richmond grand final.

His body size didn't match with the natural game he played - he never played consistently like a 195cm+, hulking forward.

The only game I saw him play as a true contested marking key forward was against Richmond at Adelaide Oval where he completely manhandled/destroyed Alex Rance, and that was after local media had consistently said that Jenkins was a 'Joe The Goose' out the back and easy goal forward mainly.

That's a problem with a guy his size who offers you not a lot else but a guy who can operate as a second ruck - you're better off replacing him with a small high pressure forward, or a lesser name but true contested ball or marking forward.

In my opinion, the Western Bulldogs (first) and Richmond (second and more recently) have laid the blueprint for winning finals in the modern era - constant (almost manic) pressure, win contested possession, speed, and finish off your plays.

It's hard to have passengers who don't consistently fit that criteria now.


RE Thilthorpe

I have a very similar view of him to you as an overall prospect.

Athletically, he's in very very rare company in some ways. His quickness, speed, and short area explosiveness for a guy 200cms is elite (his medium to long area speed is also very good). I was very surprised by his strength/power too though - he was moving and throwing around fully grown men at will in the couple of SANFL games I watched him play. His body looks very solid already (if you watch the Central/West game, he makes some of the other players look like boys/juniors when he's in the shot next to them). I'm not sure what his endurance is like in terms of being able to run out full games.

Comparison wise - I don't see him being anything like Jenkins at all, as Thilthorpe is far more comfortable in the contest, seems far far more aggressive, and looks like he's willing to exert his strength and frame far more. If you watch the Sturt and Glenelg games - you see some some good leads and goals, very very aggressive and willing tackling, contested marking, and some great co-ordination, skills and finishing of plays on the run and from a stationary position for a guy that size.
He's almost of blend of a Brody Grundy athletically (similar sizes, similarly co-ordinated, but Thilthorpe far more vertical and lateral explosiveness and I'm assuming less endurance because Grundy is an endurance freak), and a poor man's Tom Lynch when he goes forward (same aggressiveness and tendency towards the contest, but far far less natural forward craft and way less forward impact right now). A good comparison for him right now when he goes forward might be Elliot Himmelberg (Crows Himmelberg), but Thilthorpe has much better natural athleticism and a few other tools Himmelberg doesn't have.

Overall as a prospect, I see natural positional fit, natural positional feel, and consistency of impact being among Thilthorpe's biggest problems and risks at AFL level.
High ceiling - if he can translate his athleticism, strength/power, aggression, contested marking, goal kicking and even tackling as a first or second option tall forward. Very realistic to project him getting 2 to 3 goals a game from the tools listed above in a well structured team with decent to above average forward supply. He also has potential to do damage and give teams positional flexibility forward (could feasibly see him operating either close to or away from goal), but also spot up in the ruck and even on a wing.
But also potentially a low floor if he goes to a poorly run team, a team that doesn't develop him properly, a team that doesn't get him involved in the game plan properly, or if he isn't forced to make at least one role his bread and butter and be consistently impactful/effective at it.
Although Thilthorpe has a decent football IQ and his best plays look very good, JUH and McDonald seem to have a far better natural forward role feel/fit/craft, and more consistent in game tendencies and patterns right now.
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You are totally wrong re Thilthorpe's endurance....As a 16 - 17 year old he won West Adelaide's pre-season 2km time trial in 6 minutes flat....He's an absolute endurance beast for a lad his size.

westadelaidefc.com.au

Pre Season Trainign Kicks Off With 2km Time Trial - West Adelaide Football Club

westadelaidefc.com.au westadelaidefc.com.au
 
Knightmare said:
Jenkins was a basketball convert and a development player in the NBL.

Jenkins kicked 2 goals per game, every year from 2014-2019. Only Jeremy Cameron, Lance Franklin, Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Tom Lynch also accomplished that. That's elite company.

Thilthorpe is much better up the ground, more comfortable playing through the ruck, even more athletic and a more dominant contested mark. He has the endurance where some have speculated he may be able to play wing. So he's the more complete footballer. But at 200cm, there isn't at least that I can think of another appropriate comparison. Joe Daniher perhaps is the other, though I feel like Thilthorpe will fill out much more than a Daniher.
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Someone in here referred to Jenkins as a moneyball pick (maybe you?). I think that’s a very appropriate use of an otherwise overused term. A bit unfashionable and has his flaws, but bottom line - “he gets on base” and is chronically and irrationally underrated by many people.

If we had invested a top 10 draft pick in a key forward and he ended up with a career like Josh Jenkins, I wouldn’t be unhappy. Looking at the careers of other key forwards taken with top 10 picks, that would probably be a par score.

If Thilthorpe = Jenkins without several of his flaws, maybe I’m in the minority but to me that sounds like a pretty exciting prospect.
 
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Mutineer said:
You are totally wrong re Thilthorpe's endurance....As a 16 - 17 year old he won West Adelaide's pre-season 2km time trial in 6 minutes flat....He's an absolute endurance beast for a lad his size.

westadelaidefc.com.au

Pre Season Trainign Kicks Off With 2km Time Trial - West Adelaide Football Club

westadelaidefc.com.au westadelaidefc.com.au
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I never said he had poor endurance.
I said I didn't know what his endurance was like in terms of being able to run out an entire game (and more specifically I'll qualify now - run out 4 quarters of what an AFL club will ask him to do during a game), and also that I assumed it wouldn't be as good as Grundy's because of how freakish Grundy's is for a guy his size (ability to ruck entire games by himself at the AFL level and function essentially as another midfielder).
Good to know about Thilthorpe's endurance though - good find.
Makes the Grundy athletic comparison even more similar considering they are both around the 200cm mark.
 
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FNeighbourhoodSpiderman said:
I never said he had poor endurance.
I said I didn't know what his endurance was like in terms of being able to run out an entire game (and more specifically I'll qualify now - run out 4 quarters of what an AFL club will ask him to do during a game), and also that I assumed it wouldn't be as good as Grundy's because of how freakish Grundy's is for a guy his size (ability to ruck entire games by himself at the AFL level and function essentially as another midfielder).
Good to know about Thilthorpe's endurance though - good find.
Makes the Grundy athletic comparison even more similar considering they are both around the 200cm mark.
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In an interview SA U18's coach Tony Bamford did after the SA Combine when discussing the results mentioned that Riley Thilthorpe would likely have put up the best 2km time if he had been able to test so it's well known his capabilities in that regard.
 
FNeighbourhoodSpiderman said:
RE Jenkins

As an Adelaide fan - I can say that looking at Jenkins' stats, whilst accurate in some ways, is also misleading in others.

Jenkins was great in a winning side, and also in a side like Adelaide at the time who played a free flowing and higher scoring game (it wasn't just Jenkins kicking goals - Walker, Eddy and our whole forward line flourished in that time). He was able to pump his stats up massively because of this.

His biggest problem though was that he almost completely disappeared or would be a complete non factor in big games, ugly win games, congested (non free flowing games), and heavily contested games where there was a finals type heavy pressure game being played.

It stuck out like dog's ba**s in the season after the Crows Richmond grand final.

His body size didn't match with the natural game he played - he never played consistently like a 195cm+, hulking forward.

The only game I saw him play as a true contested marking key forward was against Richmond at Adelaide Oval where he completely manhandled/destroyed Alex Rance, and that was after local media had consistently said that Jenkins was a 'Joe The Goose' out the back and easy goal forward mainly.

That's a problem with a guy his size who offers you not a lot else but a guy who can operate as a second ruck - you're better off replacing him with a small high pressure forward, or a lesser name but true contested ball or marking forward.

In my opinion, the Western Bulldogs (first) and Richmond (second and more recently) have laid the blueprint for winning finals in the modern era - constant (almost manic) pressure, win contested possession, speed, and finish off your plays.

It's hard to have passengers who don't consistently fit that criteria now.


RE Thilthorpe

I have a very similar view of him to you as an overall prospect.

Athletically, he's in very very rare company in some ways. His quickness, speed, and short area explosiveness for a guy 200cms is elite (his medium to long area speed is also very good). I was very surprised by his strength/power too though - he was moving and throwing around fully grown men at will in the couple of SANFL games I watched him play. His body looks very solid already (if you watch the Central/West game, he makes some of the other players look like boys/juniors when he's in the shot next to them). I'm not sure what his endurance is like in terms of being able to run out full games.

Comparison wise - I don't see him being anything like Jenkins at all, as Thilthorpe is far more comfortable in the contest, seems far far more aggressive, and looks like he's willing to exert his strength and frame far more. If you watch the Sturt and Glenelg games - you see some some good leads and goals, very very aggressive and willing tackling, contested marking, and some great co-ordination, skills and finishing of plays on the run and from a stationary position for a guy that size.
He's almost of blend of a Brody Grundy athletically (similar sizes, similarly co-ordinated, but Thilthorpe far more vertical and lateral explosiveness and I'm assuming less endurance because Grundy is an endurance freak), and a poor man's Tom Lynch when he goes forward (same aggressiveness and tendency towards the contest, but far far less natural forward craft and way less forward impact right now). A good comparison for him right now when he goes forward might be Elliot Himmelberg (Crows Himmelberg), but Thilthorpe has much better natural athleticism and a few other tools Himmelberg doesn't have.

Overall as a prospect, I see natural positional fit, natural positional feel, and consistency of impact being among Thilthorpe's biggest problems and risks at AFL level.
High ceiling - if he can translate his athleticism, strength/power, aggression, contested marking, goal kicking and even tackling as a first or second option tall forward. Very realistic to project him getting 2 to 3 goals a game from the tools listed above in a well structured team with decent to above average forward supply. He also has potential to do damage and give teams positional flexibility forward (could feasibly see him operating either close to or away from goal), but also spot up in the ruck and even on a wing.
But also potentially a low floor if he goes to a poorly run team, a team that doesn't develop him properly, a team that doesn't get him involved in the game plan properly, or if he isn't forced to make at least one role his bread and butter and be consistently impactful/effective at it.
Although Thilthorpe has a decent football IQ and his best plays look very good, JUH and McDonald seem to have a far better natural forward role feel/fit/craft, and more consistent in game tendencies and patterns right now.
Click to expand...

I feel like that's selling Jenkins short. Not that any of what you suggest is necessarily wrong. I saw the same games and noticed a lot of the same things. But I just place a relatively greater value on what Jenkins brings to the table. Jenkins managed solid mark, mark i50 and contested mark numbers, without being dominant in those categories, and could here/there take advantage 1v1, but has good ground level craft to go with that, and is a capable finisher around goal. He's a genuine i50 target and there aren't a lot of those who hit the scoreboard like that.

I also agree with how you're seeing the game. The most important function of a front half is forward pressure and the more of that you have the better, because that's where the bulk of scores are generated from ultimately. But you still need someone who can hit the scoreboard or a few among that mix.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying on Thilthorpe. It's just as with any comparison it lacks precision, as with every because there isn't an exact likeness. Lynch is an endurance beast on another level and more specifically in the way he uses it in game but doesn't nearly have that kind of acceleration which is where Thilthorpe becomes a different unique. Otherwise you could say their games share similarities. Then Himmelberg doesn't have that array of tricks as you say.

This might be a strange sounding comparison, but I'm almost starting to see him as a taller, forward version of Balta. Maybe not quite as freakish athletically, as I haven't quite seen that kind of athletic package in someone of Balta's height and size, but as a forward, his play and mix of attributes has a similar feel, and from someone 200cm, like with Balta, I haven't seen someone who quite has the athletic profile of Thilthorpe at his height either. Maybe some might see some Sam Day, but I'm hopeful Thilthorpe will prove much more able at finding more of the ball and hitting the scoreboard much more.

The only addition to his weaknesses or those questionmarks is injury history. But otherwise as per your thoughts he needs to find that clear best position and become great at that.

Mojorisin said:
My player comparison for thilthorpe would be Kurt Tippett. Do you see that as a fair comparison of his potential?
Click to expand...

I feel like Thilthorpe is more mobile and can get around and push up the ground more. He has a few more tricks. Thilthorpe has the scope to be the better footballer.

Thilthorpe's upside is something more like a Tom Lynch. I don't think he'll be quite that level of footballer, but that's probably a closer feel into the level of football he could achieve if everything clicks for him, without necessarily dominating in precisely the same ways.
 
Last edited:
gopies123 said:
Hey KM. Wanted to ask where you think Jackson Callow will go? Sorry if it’s already been asked. Do you think the pies would be in to him? Reminds me of Jack Darling only a bit taller. If he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder do you think it’s a steal??


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

I see Callow going in the third or fourth round.

I think he has the scope to be a late draft steal given how great he has been over these past couple of years.

I don't see him becoming quite Jack Darling, but he has a chance at either end to be a genuine strong marking KPP. Like Darling at the same age though, very physically advanced. And those types I'd argue too often get overlooked/underrated, mostly because clubs think they can just be key forwards, but if they're not quite at the level the clubs would want, I see easy scope to push them back as it's those key defenders who win take contested marks, intercept marks and win 1v1s behind the ball that offer the greatest value for mine by position.

ADL9798 said:
Someone in here referred to Jenkins as a moneyball pick (maybe you?). I think that’s a very appropriate use of an otherwise overused term. A bit unfashionable and has his flaws, but bottom line - “he gets on base” and is chronically and irrationally underrated by many people.

If we had invested a top 10 draft pick in a key forward and he ended up with a career like Josh Jenkins, I wouldn’t be unhappy. Looking at the careers of other key forwards taken with top 10 picks, that would probably be a par score.

If Thilthorpe = Jenkins without several of his flaws, maybe I’m in the minority but to me that sounds like a pretty exciting prospect.
Click to expand...

In my moneyball trade/free agency video I brought up Jenkins among numerous others as moneyball targets.

Moneyball is all about finding those undervalued players no one else rates, whether they're underutilised, play out of position and look ordinary as a result compared to what they could if utilised properly, or whatever it is. Josh Jenkins is one of those for me who as you say 'gets on base'.

For those who review the 2010 draft. I don't see a way anyone could argue Jenkins isn't a clear top-30 player. And I'd argue he's a top-20 player. As you say, if it's a top-10 pick you've used. That's a solid outcome. From that top-10. He's better to date than Bennell, Day, Conca, Caddy (though I rate Caddy) and Gorringe. Having each of them easily covered for consistency, having for a long stretch of years showed up and provided consistent output from year to year.

I look at Thilthorpe as Jenkins+. He's a more freakish athlete, stronger contested mark. But there is a lot in their mobility and ground level capabilities for that height that makes me think Jenkins stylistically. As already explored though, there isn't a perfect comparison for Jenkins, not that comparisons are valued or thought about all that much within the industry beyond just passing comments/thoughts.
 
Knightmare said:
I wouldn't personally use a top-3 pick on Thilthorpe. Ugle-Hagan, McDonald and Phillips are all in my view clearly better. Thilthorpe I consider among that next three.

Jenkins was a basketball convert and a development player in the NBL.

Jenkins kicked 2 goals per year, every year from 2014-2019. Only Jeremy Cameron, Lance Franklin, Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Tom Lynch also accomplished that. That's elite company.

Thilthorpe is much better up the ground, more comfortable playing through the ruck, even more athletic and a more dominant contested mark. He has the endurance where some have speculated he may be able to play wing. So he's the more complete footballer. But at 200cm, there isn't at least that I can think of another appropriate comparison. Joe Daniher perhaps is the other, though I feel like Thilthorpe will fill out much more than a Daniher.
Click to expand...
Jenkins was a freak athlete and would run rings athletically around Bolta and Thilthorpe.

Draft Profile - Josh Jenkins

Former elite basketballer, tested well at State Screening. 20m Sprint: 2.91 Vertical Leap: 75cm Running Vertical: 93cm Beep: 13.3 199cm and 100kg Footage here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl3HxX38J_s
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com

20m Sprint: 2.91
Vertical Leap: 75cm
Running Vertical: 93cm
Beep: 13.3

His athleticism was his point of difference and is what allowed him to get out the back so many times.
 
Warhorse said:
Jenkins was a freak athlete and would run rings athletically around Bolta and Thilthorpe.

Draft Profile - Josh Jenkins

Former elite basketballer, tested well at State Screening. 20m Sprint: 2.91 Vertical Leap: 75cm Running Vertical: 93cm Beep: 13.3 199cm and 100kg Footage here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl3HxX38J_s
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com

20m Sprint: 2.91
Vertical Leap: 75cm
Running Vertical: 93cm
Beep: 13.3

His athleticism was his point of difference and is what allowed him to get out the back so many times.
Click to expand...

Jenkins is a freak athlete and came in at a great height and with a great physical profile to go with it. That's precisely why I compare him to Thilthorpe who I feel like at the same height can develop a very similar physical profile. That's the sort of build/athleticism I foresee from Thilthorpe.

The testing of Jenkins was superior to that of both Balta (ever so slightly) and Thilthorpe, but he also tested as a mature ager, at the age of 21 whereas the likes of Balta as a direct comparison, he has in his years on Richmond's playing list continued to advance as an athlete and having see both apply their athletic capabilities in game, the way Balta uses it is on an even more freakish level. Did you see Balta create separation last weekend when he was shifted forward before half time? That was Lockett-esque, and he's taller than Lockett.

I also feel like suggestions Jenkins is only able because he's an athlete is selling him short. He could as you say get out the back for a goal, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's also really good both at ground level and also finishing around goal, he has co-ordination and a rare mind to body connection for someone that height and size. He's a baller, and a disrespected one at that.
 
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