Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Knightmare said:
Free agency, trades, draft: Every AFL club's list needs ahead of 2021:
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Every AFL club's list needs ahead of 2021

With eyes firmly turning to the AFL trade and free agency periods, ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed every club's list needs ahead of a massive offseason.
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Km

Inexplicably dropped by North Melbourne in 2020, Jared Polec is believed to be of interest to the Cats if they miss out on Isaac Smith, and he would add much needed outside drive and class.....

You think we will chase Polec... ? How strong are you on that ?


The recent combine tests showed some interesting names ... Zac Reids result only made him more enticing for a 202 cm player... but Josh Eyre. Dominic Bedendo. did well where do you see these players getting drafted?
 
Mutineer said:
I don't agree with too much of your Hartigan assessment Knighta and I reckon I've likely seen a whole lot more of him than you, he can intercept, and he's also OK 1 v 1, and is quicker than most KPD's. The 2 weakest points in his make-up are his kicking and his decision making can be slow at times. Obviously Clarko and the Hawks have a different opinion than you of him to make that offer.
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Rated 'poor' by Champion Data these past two years. Below average the two years before that. That's in the greater context where he sits.

He wouldn't be my choice of key defender in a market where there are a good number available.

I am being perhaps slightly unfair with Haritgan as an intercepter (in checking his intercept marks and intercept possessions he's better than I expected and better than my eye test from the Adelaide games I've seen these past two years would suggest), he's actually adequate as an intercepter but more-so is not going to add value as a rebounder. And as a stopper, adequate without being great, but looking worse on a bad Adelaide team this year.

With key defenders I'm looking at can they:
1. intercept
2. rebound
3. win 1v1s/get stops

For me to consider someone worth a starting best 22 spot, I'm looking for as a bare minimum someone who scores a 1.5 or above, with each of those three criteria either scoring a 0, 0.5 or 1 depending on how I rate them. Hartigan is a 0,0.5,0.5 key defender, for a 1/3. So he isn't someone I would personally target.

Best of luck to Hawthorn, I hope for their sake they don't need to cough up more than a 4th round pick or equivalent depth player who they probably don't intend to retain. I'd be targeting either Aliir Aliir or Tom McDonald, or if desperate for that deeper defender, I'd rather take Majak Daw as a DFA. We're all going to have our preferences though on talent.

Chrispiesssss said:
Hi Knightmare, Rendell said that Campbell might be the best kick he’s ever seen in the draft.

Do you agree or are you sticking with your Jack Lukosius.
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Interesting to hear that comment, thanks for sharing Rendell's thoughts.

Campbell is a great kick but I'm not going to give him that level of credit.

It may have been on the Collingwood board, but a comment made was that his kicking is Nathan Buckley-esque. And it wasn't far off stylistically and with some of the kicks he can deliver, albeit maybe 5m shorter in penetration (he can still launch it 55-60m) and he's almost as damaging with hitting/placing out for his targets also which is highly impressive.

Is Campbell a better kick than Lukosius? I'd say a different kick. Where Lukosius has Campbell for me is in the foresight. What's unique with Lukosius is he can kick and know when the ball arrives, where precisely everyone is going to be situated. It's like on his kicks he sees what's going to happen before it's happened. I haven't seen anyone else do that, so for me being in that 'I've never seen anyone else do that before' camp, I have to still give the points to Lukosius as that guy I want the ball in the hands of, certainly after a mark. I'll give Campbell for general field kicks and consistency the advantage over Lukosius though who can occasionally blunder a kick.

It's a bit like if you asked whether Nathan Buckley or Leon Davis are better kicks. They're better at different things. Davis with how sweetly he can weight his kicks for targets to lead onto and how precise he was from kickouts v Buckley who has the power, penetration and those low, fast through the air darts, and that genuine 60m goalkicking range. It really comes down to what you value, with both, as with the Campbell/Lukosius kicking comparison having eachother in different areas, making it a worthy topic for debate.

SXT15 said:
One from left field Knightmare; I was thinking about Brisbane’s optimal 22 for next year, and it’s still really difficult to fit in Dev Robertson & Ely Smith. Both whom I know you rate, particularly Robertson for his freakish ball winning skills at ground level.

With this in mind, do you think there’s genuinely another position for the both of them? Dev as a intercepting mid size Defender, with his elite athleticism playing a part back there? Eli as a hybrid forward who plays deep utilising his leap and physicality? Also would love to know your thoughts on Rhys Mathieson, whether you see him as a legitimate contender to our best 22? It will be his sixth season on the list next year,
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Ely I don't rate as highly, I see some scope to develop, but he's still not a definite for me, but Robertson I really like.

I'm not seeing that definite role. Robertson is mostly an inside mid and can play outside as required. No other spot for mine suits him. Not sure he's that goalkicker or being all that damaging, and from defence I'm not seeing him as that kind of ball user I'd want back there.

Ely for me is more a pure mid. Smith is really that inside extractor and would need to add to his game to play another role. Brisbane could do with another big bodied inside mid, so he'll just have to develop into that role most likely. Maybe he could develop forward craft, but I haven't really seen that from him to feel it's in his game.

Mathieson is also an interesting one. Good from the day he was drafted, but hasn't found another gear to his game unfortunately. If he doesn't get delisted/moved, next year would have to be a make or break year for him you'd think, I'm surprised he hasn't been cut already as I'm not seeing who he could play in front of.
 
Turbocat said:
Km

Inexplicably dropped by North Melbourne in 2020, Jared Polec is believed to be of interest to the Cats if they miss out on Isaac Smith, and he would add much needed outside drive and class.....

You think we will chase Polec... ? How strong are you on that ?


The recent combine tests showed some interesting names ... Zac Reids result only made him more enticing for a 202 cm player... but Josh Eyre. Dominic Bedendo. did well where do you see these players getting drafted?
Click to expand...

Geelong would like Polec. With Cameron definitely coming now, and Higgins seemingly joining, Geelong will be working hard to create lots of salary cap space. They'd love Isaac Smith, but Melbourne should win out. So if they can't get Smith, they have the salary cap space, and North Melbourne are willing to trade Polec (maybe a new coach says otherwise), we may see a trade happen. So there are a lot of moving parts that would need to fall into place for that deal to be reached, beyond the Cameron and Higgins deal. It was spoken about a fair bit before Cameron to Geelong was confirmed, so it will be interesting to hear updated word out of Geelong as to whether they still believe they should have cap space, assuming North Melbourne are open to a trade.

Good testing results for Reid, though it's a shame we didn't see him this year to have context as to what those numbers mean in game and whether he has as a footballer improved or not. He most likely goes first round, though my view is it will be second half of first round.

Eyre I think could attract a late second or third round bid for a rough feel. He's been mostly injured and hasn't really performed, but I could see a club speculating on him.

Bedendo is a good athlete. Big leaper and has speed. Very light bodied though and last year got pushed around a fair bit. He's a late draft chance but far from a certainty to get picked.
 

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Knightmare said:
Geelong would like Polec. With Cameron definitely coming now, and Higgins seemingly joining, Geelong will be working hard to create lots of salary cap space. They'd love Isaac Smith, but Melbourne should win out. So if they can't get Smith, they have the salary cap space, and North Melbourne are willing to trade Polec (maybe a new coach says otherwise), we may see a trade happen. So there are a lot of moving parts that would need to fall into place for that deal to be reached, beyond the Cameron and Higgins deal. It was spoken about a fair bit before Cameron to Geelong was confirmed, so it will be interesting to hear updated word out of Geelong as to whether they still believe they should have cap space, assuming North Melbourne are open to a trade.

Good testing results for Reid, though it's a shame we didn't see him this year to have context as to what those numbers mean in game and whether he has as a footballer improved or not. He most likely goes first round, though my view is it will be second half of first round.

Eyre I think could attract a late second or third round bid for a rough feel. He's been mostly injured and hasn't really performed, but I could see a club speculating on him.

Bedendo is a good athlete. Big leaper and has speed. Very light bodied though and last year got pushed around a fair bit. He's a late draft chance but far from a certainty to get picked.
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Cap space is arguably as important as a late r1 this year ..when it might be in the mid 20's. The only way I could see it getting done is if NM held a big chunk of his dollars in their cap. Contracted for 3 more years. Have to wait and see I guess... Polec seems on the nose .. it would be like buying at the bottom of the market.

Reid would seem to fit what we have need of ..a tall who is ruck height , capable of playing a KPP.. meshed with SDek and we would have a good pair to develop. Still seems like we need a ruckman but perhaps he would suffice.

The funny thing with Benendo results was the big difference between left and right leap.
 
Turbocat said:
Cap space is arguably as important as a late r1 this year ..when it might be in the mid 20's. The only way I could see it getting done is if NM held a big chunk of his dollars in their cap. Contracted for 3 more years. Have to wait and see I guess... Polec seems on the nose .. it would be like buying at the bottom of the market.

Reid would seem to fit what we have need of ..a tall who is ruck height , capable of playing a KPP.. meshed with SDek and we would have a good pair to develop. Still seems like we need a ruckman but perhaps he would suffice.

The funny thing with Benendo results was the big difference between left and right leap.
Click to expand...

Some guys are two legged jumpers, others are single legged jumpers. It's more common than you think to find guys who only know how to jump off one specific leg. If you're one leg dominant, not everyone necessarily even has to coordination to jump off of their non-preferred jumping leg. *note jumping legs are often different to kicking legs. I know just for myself, not that I'm a footballer, but I'm a single leg of left jumper while I'm by foot right foot dominant. If you look back at past testing data, it's very common.
 
gawndog37 said:
Hi Knightmare, on Finlay Macrae i've heard the dees are really keen on him and are looking to trade their 2021 first round pick for a first round pick in this years draft to get him. I assume we'd develop him into a winger to complement our inside bulls, do you think he'd be a good fit and where abouts in the draft do you see him going?
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Pick 9 for next years 1st? Death ride rolls on...
 
Swiggy said:
Who will freo look too at pick 10?
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Genuine question, as with most clubs as to whether it will be retained with Fremantle looking to be active in adding capable players this offseason.

If retained, and we have to assume it will be until it isn't, a Heath Chapman around that choice could represent value to give you one name I see the Dockers considering around there. Local talent which the Dockers have always liked where possible, but a good rebounding tall defender.
 
Knightmare said:
Free agency, trades, draft: Every AFL club's list needs ahead of 2021:
www.espn.com.au

Every AFL club's list needs ahead of 2021

With eyes firmly turning to the AFL trade and free agency periods, ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed every club's list needs ahead of a massive offseason.
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au
Click to expand...

I know everyone's a critic

But don't think Carlisle makes much sense for us at all at 29 years old and feel you're a bit harsh on our defense.

Rampe is AA quality, Aliir is serviceable and Melican's end of year form was very impressive, we also have Gould pushing to get a game.

Given where our list is at (ie not competing in the short term), and how our defense performed this year despite us getting smashed in the midfield most games don't think such a move makes much sense.
 
Tippett2Goal said:
I know everyone's a critic

But don't think Carlisle makes much sense for us at all at 29 years old and feel you're a bit harsh on our defense.

Rampe is AA quality, Aliir is serviceable and Melican's end of year form was very impressive, we also have Gould pushing to get a game.

Given where our list is at (ie not competing in the short term), and how our defense performed this year despite us getting smashed in the midfield most games don't think such a move makes much sense.
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Rampe is great, but I don't view him as a genuine KPP. He's 187cm. It's like Heath Shaw playing key defence. He's actually able to play taller, but you'd ideally like someone who is actually 194cm+.

Aliir I really like, but he's not getting used consistently in defence. I'm continually frustrated watching him play through the ruck as he was highly impressive in 2018 as a key defender not only intercepting like a machine but even winning his 1v1s consistently. I get the sense he moves on, or gets traded, leaving Sydney with not a lot, as Sydney don't rate him as highly as I'd argue they should.

Melican I don't rate at all. He Melican't intercept or rebound. Being just a stopper and nothing more isn't enough in the modern game. He's not someone I would have drafted nor persisted with. From Sydney's list Kaiden Brand I view as a much better option.

Gould I'm a fan of and would have liked to have seen play this year, but again as with Rampe, probably not a key defender and rather someone you play alongside two good key defenders.
 
Knightmare said:
Genuine question, as with most clubs as to whether it will be retained with Fremantle looking to be active in adding capable players this offseason.

If retained, and we have to assume it will be until it isn't, a Heath Chapman around that choice could represent value to give you one name I see the Dockers considering around there. Local talent which the Dockers have always liked where possible, but a good rebounding tall defender.
Click to expand...
A poster on our Board showed that in the relevant past we have taken 1 local in the first round (excluding Henry as an nga). Logue and Stephen Hill are our only local first round picks on the list.

I like Chapman but I don't see his position as a priority. Speed around the ball and tall forwards for me.
 
theGav56 said:
A poster on our Board showed that in the relevant past we have taken 1 local in the first round (excluding Henry as an nga). Logue and Stephen Hill are our only local first round picks on the list.

I like Chapman but I don't see his position as a priority. Speed around the ball and tall forwards for me.
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I'm seeing a defence that is a few pieces short. Fremantle need another good key defender. Another good rebounding defender. Longmuir is a build from the back half first guy.

Fremantle's core is coming along well, but across the field there are a lot of spots that need filling.

Fremantle will be getting speed through NGA selections. As for key forwards, I'd be either moving up to the top-2 for the leftover of McDonald/Thilthorpe, or taking one late in the draft, and that's probably not happening this year with all the NGA prospects who should attract bids outside the first round.

Sydney swans said:
Hey Knightmare,
Any chance of a club selecting Campbell prior to our pick?
Cheers
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I'd be surprised if that were to happen.

If Adelaide get compensation pick of pick 2 for Crouch leaving, that increases the risk and makes it more of a question, but even then I'd be thinking without hearing specifically that a bid should come after JUH/McDonald/Thilthorpe/DGB/Hollands in some order are off the board.
 

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Knightmare said:
Fremantle will be getting speed through NGA selections. As for key forwards, I'd be either moving up to the top-2 for the leftover of McDonald/Thilthorpe, or taking one late in the draft, and that's probably not happening this year with all the NGA prospects who should attract bids outside the first round.
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You've flagged this a couple of times lately - what's swung you to Thilthorpe going top 2?
 
GUMBLETRON said:
You've flagged this a couple of times lately - what's swung you to Thilthorpe going top 2?
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It's been the story for a good while now. A JUH bid will happen - not that that impacts on anything else. But Adelaide and North Melbourne will ultimately end up with one of Thilthorpe and McDonald each, with Adelaide sounding like they'll take Thilthorpe, despite McDonald's willingness to move to Adelaide.

I haven't heard a single scenario where either team adds anyone else to date.
 
Adelaide could very easily end up with 4+ SA boys from this draft based on current draft power rankings/mocks, current draft selections (plus the Brad Crouch compensation, or whatever the Crows get in a trade from the Saints), and academy/zone selections.

Thilthorpe, Poulter, Cook, Powell in the open draft, and Newchurch, Borlase and possibly Edwards in the rights based bids.

The interesting thing is that those guys fill a range of positions (with some of them being multi positional), and generally positions the Crows could use talent or depth at.

As a side note - I'm getting some real 'blue chip' smokey vibes from Poulter as I looked into him recently. Am I saying he is definitely going to be a star? No. But, he certainly has some profile traits and a game which suggest massive room for growth (physically, skill wise, and also in understanding of how to impact a game once he gets in a professional environment), and also translation to the AFL level. His athletic base is good to very good in some areas (and even pushing towards unique in some ways when you look at his size, the fact he plays midfield, and his speed/endurance/vertical leap mix), his size can be very imposing in the midfield or up forward on small and medium opponents (I'd even go so far as to say he could dominate certain opponents physically once he fills out and adds more muscle mass), he can play multiple positions, and he's got multiple skills and tools (midfield craft, penetrating kick, marking, able to hit scoreboard, tackling). I remember the one thing they kept saying about Bontempelli around draft time was how hard of a worker he was and the drive he had to improve, and Poulter seems to have work ethic/drive for improvement covered too from the things I've read.

Powell obviously has shown some traits of that elite accumulator and in close/short area handball and set up game. Hard to say how he will end up developing, but the IQ and natural midfield game sense seem to be there. If he ends up being anything like a Neale or Serong, you'd be over the moon. Although, obviously Neale is as best case scenario as it gets (interestingly, they have very similar physical profiles as draftees), and Serong looked to be carrying far more muscle density/weight, and had a few more tricks in the bag such as legit marking and goal kicking/forward craft for a guy his size as a draftee.

Stylistically, I get Will Hoskin Elliott/Jaidyn Stephenson vibes from Cook. Rangy (awkward height for some opponents nudging up around 188 cms), good athlete, can kick goals, raw in some ways but super talented in others. Not as well performed against top level junior competition as either of those two though obviously

Newchurch, although not consistent or a huge performer yet, has some unteachable small forward type talent, and good physical traits. Would just want to make sure he is willing to consistently apply pressure at AFL level, as I'm seeing his tackle numbers aren't through the roof. Can't see why he wouldn't be worth a bid in the mid to late rounds (although - I could see a team crying out for a small forward maybe trying to take him earlier)
 
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FNeighbourhoodSpiderman said:
Adelaide could very easily end up with 4+ SA boys from this draft based on current draft power rankings/mocks, current draft selections (plus the Brad Crouch compensation, or whatever the Crows get in a trade from the Saints), and academy/zone selections.

Thilthorpe, Poulter, Cook, Powell in the open draft, and Newchurch, Borlase and possibly Edwards in the rights based bids.

The interesting thing is that those guys fill a range of positions (with some of them being multi positional), and generally positions the Crows could use talent or depth at.

As a side note - I'm getting some real 'blue chip' smokey vibes from Poulter as I looked into him recently. Am I saying he is definitely going to be a star? No. But, he certainly has some profile traits and a game which suggest massive room for growth (physically, skill wise, and also in understanding of how to impact a game once he gets in a professional environment), and also translation to the AFL level. His athletic base is good to very good in some areas (and even pushing towards unique in some ways when you look at his size, the fact he plays midfield, and his speed/endurance/vertical leap mix), his size can be very imposing in the midfield or up forward on small and medium opponents (I'd even go so far as to say he could dominate certain opponents physically once he fills out and adds more muscle mass), he can play multiple positions, and he's got multiple skills and tools (midfield craft, penetrating kick, marking, able to hit scoreboard, tackling). I remember the one thing they kept saying about Bontempelli around draft time was how hard of a worker he was and the drive he had to improve, and Poulter seems to have work ethic/drive for improvement covered too from the things I've read.

Powell obviously has shown some traits of that elite accumulator and in close/short area handball and set up game. Hard to say how he will end up developing, but the IQ and natural midfield game sense seem to be there. If he ends up being anything like a Neale or Serong, you'd be over the moon. Although, obviously Neale is as best case scenario as it gets (interestingly, they have very similar physical profiles as draftees), and Serong looked to be carrying far more muscle density/weight, and had a few more tricks in the bag such as legit marking and goal kicking/forward craft for a guy his size as a draftee.

Stylistically, I get Will Hoskin Elliott/Jaidyn Stephenson vibes from Cook. Rangy (awkward height for some opponents nudging up around 188 cms), good athlete, can kick goals, raw in some ways but super talented in others. Not as well performed against top level junior competition as either of those two though obviously

Newchurch, although not consistent or a huge performer yet, has some unteachable small forward type talent, and good physical traits. Would just want to make sure he is willing to consistently apply pressure at AFL level, as I'm seeing his tackle numbers aren't through the roof. Can't see why he wouldn't be worth a bid in the mid to late rounds (although - I could see a team crying out for a small forward maybe trying to take him earlier)
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Crows do have the opportunity to go with a local theme this offseason. Though there are needs really across the field with Adelaide needing a lot of everything at the present time having cleared out so many established players last offseason.

Poulter definitely has scope to develop. He'll take a few years, but there are some signs.

Powell will be good. I think he'll be a safe pick. I see him going late first round.

Cook even can do more than just play forward. He could play back or wing and also look good there. He gives you options. I think he'll go a lot earlier than people realise. Could he contend for a top-10 selection? If people are talking about Henry so high, I'm not sure why Cook wouldn't be higher when he's the better footballer.

Crows should be taking Newchurch somewhere. He's on my extended draft board. Has enough talent.
 
Who do you think would be the best play for hawks to pick if it gets pushed back to say pick 7-8?

Do you think Phillips, Bruhn, Perkins would be the logical ones?
 
nelk boys said:
Who do you think would be the best play for hawks to pick if it gets pushed back to say pick 7-8?

Do you think Phillips, Bruhn, Perkins would be the logical ones?
Click to expand...

Assuming McDonald/Thilthorpe/DGB/Hollands are gone, as I'd predict if Adelaide get that pick 2 as compensation, Hawthorn have a few options. Phillips is the best available and the guy I would take, and I view him as a midfield fit and someone who would add much needed pace and run through there. If you want an alternative to discuss, Bruhn is interesting and also has performances behind him, maybe a Finlay Macrae could also be considered. But the draft after those guys starts to open up and flatten out.

The other option is always trading back a small few spots at a time in two for one picks. eg. swap first round picks with Carlton and gain Matthew Kennedy and a pick upgrade somewhere else in the draft. Then move the pick down a few more to North Melbourne for a Polec. And a couple more again to Geelong for a Narkle. I'm not necessarily advocating those trades, but it's more so that methodology is something I'd look at if say later in the first round Hawthorn there is someone who should be there who represents particularly outstanding value or is for whatever reason the player the club want to target. As a strategy, particularly for clubs with a lot of list holes needing filling, if those opposition players are well targeted and underutilised/wrongly utilised types who want away or the club don't see as all that important to their long term plans, this kind of strategy can work out even better than if the best possible player were drafted with that pick you started with.
 
Knightmare said:
Assuming McDonald/Thilthorpe/DGB/Hollands are gone, as I'd predict if Adelaide get that pick 2 as compensation, Hawthorn have a few options. Phillips is the best available and the guy I would take, and I view him as a midfield fit and someone who would add much needed pace and run through there. If you want an alternative to discuss, Bruhn is interesting and also has performances behind him, maybe a Finlay Macrae could also be considered. But the draft after those guys starts to open up and flatten out.

The other option is always trading back a small few spots at a time in two for one picks. eg. swap first round picks with Carlton and gain Matthew Kennedy and a pick upgrade somewhere else in the draft. Then move the pick down a few more to North Melbourne for a Polec. And a couple more again to Geelong for a Narkle. I'm not necessarily advocating those trades, but it's more so that methodology is something I'd look at if say later in the first round Hawthorn there is someone who should be there who represents particularly outstanding value or is for whatever reason the player the club want to target. As a strategy, particularly for clubs with a lot of list holes needing filling, if those opposition players are well targeted and underutilised/wrongly utilised types who want away or the club don't see as all that important to their long term plans, this kind of strategy can work out even better than if the best possible player were drafted with that pick you started with.
Click to expand...
Do you think Geelong would be open for us to get their pick 11 and Jordan clarke, for our first pick which they could select Tanner Bruhn in?
 
nelk boys said:
Do you think Geelong would be open for us to get their pick 11 and Jordan clarke, for our first pick which they could select Tanner Bruhn in?
Click to expand...

Geelong love their local talent.

Bruhn and/or Henry may be among their targets early. It's just not going to take Hawthorn's pick to get up that high. A first round pick from Essendon would give them their choice of those.

Maybe there could be a three way trade involving Essendon that could work along those lines.
 
Knightmare said:
It's been the story for a good while now. A JUH bid will happen - not that that impacts on anything else. But Adelaide and North Melbourne will ultimately end up with one of Thilthorpe and McDonald each, with Adelaide sounding like they'll take Thilthorpe, despite McDonald's willingness to move to Adelaide.

I haven't heard a single scenario where either team adds anyone else to date.
Click to expand...
Where are Adelaide "sounding" like they'll take Thilthorpe? I must have missed it?
 
Mutineer said:
Where are Adelaide "sounding" like they'll take Thilthorpe? I must have missed it?
Click to expand...

Publicly my understanding in Matt Rendell made a comment along the lines of he believes Adelaide will take Thilthorpe, and I've found this belief to be consistent with the other club recruiters I have spoken to.

I'm surprised as I'm confident in the interview process Logan McDonald will present as being more than happy to play for Adelaide.

Perhaps Adelaide believe Thilthorpe will be the better footballer? Or you'd assume given it would be the #1 pick they'd use him on.

They'd almost be better off trading pick 1 down to pick 2 to North Melbourne for a profit, and let North Melbourne know they're taking McDonald, but if they want him, they're open to a deal as they don't see significant separation between he and Thilthorpe.

I see significant separation between the two. But it sounds like my evaluation differs to that held by Adelaide's recruiters if indeed Rendell's belief proves correct.
 
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