Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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weltschmerz said:
Who would you choose out of Isiah Winder or Phoenix Spicer?
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Winder for me. More damaging offensively and less limited as the more capable accumulator and ball winner up the field.
 
THE_GUN said:
Just out of interest , Has there been a player thats played 100 games after a 2nd knee injury ?
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Jake Lever would have to be a good chance of getting there.

Did his knee as a junior, and has played 25 games since doing his knee again in 2018.
 

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Knightmare said:
Where West Coast's pick lands will depend on bidding and number of bids before that first pick. With the number of bids, maybe some clubs have picks absorbed before 62, some clubs will have picks after and have their picks moved up. Ultimately it depends on how many bids and where they come from. The pick probably ends up around pick 60ish depending on those movements, the more of those late bids that are made, the later some of those players will see West Coast's pick slide, not that it will be all that consequential with those academy types to be matched anyway if they're getting matched earlier. Also will matter how many picks particular clubs take. Will we have 50 taken? 60? 70? A wait and see once we know what happens with the finalised delistings.
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Have you actually looked at the current draft order?

Did you mean pick 50’ish?

Just between Bulldogs, Sydney, Port, Hawthorn, Brisbane and Fremantle there are 18 picks before West Coasts pick that likely get used to match bids.

You can see in the BigFooty Phantom Draft, that pick 62 has already moved up to pick 52, and that is with Gullden and Coleman NOT being matched.
 
briztoon said:
Have you actually looked at the current draft order?

Did you mean pick 50’ish?

Just between Bulldogs, Sydney, Port, Hawthorn, Brisbane and Fremantle there are 18 picks before West Coasts pick that likely get used to match bids.

You can see in the BigFooty Phantom Draft, that pick 62 has already moved up to pick 52, and that is with Gullden and Coleman NOT being matched.
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The bigfooty phantom draft is only one scenario.

In my two round phantom draft there were 48 players I had going within the first two rounds of the draft. West Coast's first pick comes in as the first pick of the fourth round. And no doubt there will be some teams picking in the third round. So it's premature to talk in definites.

Which brings into play the variables already mentioned including but not limited to number of picks teams take and list positions available. How many players are bid on and where. Some picks that will be after West Coast's pick could be moved up, just as other picks before then will be absorbed during the bidding process, or plausibly passed on.
 
Knightmare said:
The bigfooty phantom draft is only one scenario.

In my two round phantom draft there were 48 players I had going within the first two rounds of the draft. West Coast's first pick comes in as the first pick of the fourth round. And no doubt there will be some teams picking in the third round. So it's premature to talk in definites.

Which brings into play the variables already mentioned including but not limited to number of picks teams take and list positions available. How many players are bid on and where. Some picks that will be after West Coast's pick could be moved up, just as other picks before then will be absorbed during the bidding process, or plausibly passed on.
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Have you actually counted how many picks in rounds 2 and 3 belong to clubs with nga and academy prospects?

It’s pretty simple, there are 14 to 18 picks in round two and three that will be used to match bids on JUH, Campbell, Jones, Gullden, Walker, Coleman and Downie.

It’s simple maths and looking at upper and lower draft ranges for each club tied academy prospect.

As long as each prospect is bid on in a “fair” draft range that sees each parent club match the bids, West Coast’s first pick will move up between 7 and 11 places.
 
Knightmare interested on your thoughts with Essendon prioritising a winger. We have had second rate runners on the wing really since Stanton, and reckon they might decide to try and fill that gap with Ham and Cutler both sketchy prospects.

Do you think Macrae is a stretch to be taken that high? Any other options worth considering?
 
FlyingV said:
Knightmare interested on your thoughts with Essendon prioritising a winger. We have had second rate runners on the wing really since Stanton, and reckon they might decide to try and fill that gap with Ham and Cutler both sketchy prospects.

Do you think Macrae is a stretch to be taken that high? Any other options worth considering?
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Macrae is definitely worth consideration. He can play inside or outside, as with Jack and is in my view better than a number of the players Essendon are believed to be considering with their picks.

A slightly out there option but Nic Cox who Essendon are believed to be considering with one of those first three picks could be an option. He's unothodox by position at 199cm, but more than has the endurance and skills by position. He'd just need to develop the running patterns and improve his ball winning capabilities to be a success on a wing. Even a Perkins, who is believed to be on the shortlist for Essendon could conceivably develop onto a wing, as someone who can play forward/midfield - in/out/back if you wanted him to with his skills and run and drive he can generate.
 
Hey Knighter would you take Laurie late teens? Crying out for a crumber, Oakleigh boy, stick Callow next to him if we don't get a bid on McInnes or fenagle something with our Fut 1st?
 
Postpandemicpremiers said:
Hey Knighter would you take Laurie late teens? Crying out for a crumber, Oakleigh boy, stick Callow next to him if we don't get a bid on McInnes or fenagle something with our Fut 1st?
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I wouldn't personally spend such a high price on Laurie and don't endorse him as a first round pick. Late/rookie I feel like there are others who represent better value and could be of similar quality as crumbers.

Tyler Brockman and Phoenix Spicer for speed and crumbing could be just two examples of guys I'd expect probably are available late/rookie. Or better, a bid on Maurice Rioli. Late draft and rookie draft, it's the depth of small forwards I'm seeing that's impressing me.
 
Knightmare said:
I wouldn't personally spend such a high price on Laurie and don't endorse him as a first round pick. Late/rookie I feel like there are others who represent better value and could be of similar quality as crumbers.

Tyler Brockman and Phoenix Spicer for speed and crumbing could be just two examples of guys I'd expect probably are available late/rookie. Or better, a bid on Maurice Rioli. Late draft and rookie draft, it's the depth of small forwards I'm seeing that's impressing me.
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Could you list your top 5 small fowards KM
 
Knightmare said:
To make my point clearer.

Production firstly: 21 goals v 5 on the same number of games. Yes, Thilthorpe spent time in the ruck which meant less goals kicked compared both to last year and in contrast to McDonald. But his disposals and marks per game aren't any higher despite being up around the ball. Both are exceptionally high performers but I do regard McDonald as the higher performer with Thilthorpe yet to show he's on that same level specifically as a key forward, having been held goalless in 3/6 of his games as a key forward in 2019 and having that less clear best position.

Then combine that with rate of improvement. Thilthorpe achieving much the same numbers. McDonald making a big time jump from lesser numbers in WAFL Colts. Rate of improvement is that ultimate indicator of player development and with McDonald it's dramatic. This is the component the most weight needs to be placed into and this is an entirely wild thing like I've never seen before. The bolded is what we're going to come back to 4 years from now when people ask me why McDonald became a great key forward. Look at that exponential rate of improvement. It's unheard of improving in all three major statistical categories in one year when jumping up from playing against weak u18 competition to playing against legit state league competition:
League stats: 11.2d, 4m, 2.3g (2020)
Colts stats: 10.3d, 2.9m, 1.4g (2019)
With Thilthorpe, there is no improvement in numbers since 2019 despite playing against the same standard of competition.
Then the other component to upside is height and weight growth. Both grew for height and put on more weight, but McDonald put on more weight and of the two has more physical development to come and with it, that's the other indicator for footballing improvement beyond simply improvement in numbers.

I don't share your view that there is any meaningful separation in quality between the SANFL and WAFL. They're different competitions with different dynamics eg. in WA you tend to get more speed and instinctive play while in the SANFL I find the skills and structures better on the whole, but I find the quality of play ultimately when all is considered to be largely a wash.

Your case in talking about Thilthorpe with injuries is absolutely valid and a lot of people will share your position. How much have the injuries impacted his capacity to improve? With a clean run with injury, even assuming that is the case, that improvement that didn't occur this year, will that improvement that didn't happen still occur? Ultimately all there is, is speculation that he would without the injuries be a better footballer. But what that rate of improvement or level of performance he could have achieved is guesswork, just as it would be guesswork if he played more as a key forward rather than a ruck how he might have performed.

I don't like bringing durability or lack of when assessing the long term prospects and their future career outlooks eg. Kaine Baldwin, and I'm not going to put a line through him, although it means in evaluations it means he gets no marks for upside and it impacts component of the analysis, but the extent to which I do as per my analysis is if they've missed time with injury, or been playing with injuries and it means they haven't had that same level of production improvement then that's where in the upside measure it comes out. As ultimately with injuries, that's the level of improvement they have achieved.
Thilthorpe still has grown and grown stronger, so he does have that growth trend in that regard. So you I'm not at all going to discount Thilthorpe having further growth to come as he does have upside still.

My upside analysis is as follows:
McDonald 1/1 (full marks both for rate of footballing improvement and rate of height/weight growth)
Thilthorpe 0.5/1 (no meaningful statistical improvement meaning no marks for footballing improvement but marks for rate of height/weight growth), though again even in the latter category McDonald still has that edge as already discussed given his strength gains have been greater, he still have a greater degree of physical growth to come, has the scope to get stronger in the upper body and has the frame for those gains v Thilthorpe who is much closer to what will be his playing weight.

Ultimately our difference in opinion re. upside comes down to, to what extent should a prospect who has carried injuries be given a pass and how heavily we want our assumptions to guide our decision making. I personally as per my analysis like to take that guesswork out of the equation and simplify the process to what I've included here in my comments.

Where my views differ from the conventional regarding upside and I think the entire industry is wrong in this viewpoint. The industry from what I've observed and those I've spoken to look at upside from a perspective of points of difference. That's all well and good when considering the scope to play in different positions and move guys around, but what has proven over time when you actually go through the names of those guys who have improved. Tom Lynch is the classic example. Goes outside the top-10, but in hindsight is a pretty obvious top pick. How does that happen? Grew late (+0.5) and improved dramatically statistically (+0.5). A clear full marks upside guy. When you look at attributes, that's a completely different category entirely and useful for very different purposes.

That's how I look at KPPs differently to how clubs do and why my results have on average proven over the past 10 years to have been stronger than those of AFL clubs.
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Say the Crows take McDonald. Do you think that north take Thilthorpe ? Or do they take Hollands or DGB?
 
Chioli said:
Say the Crows take McDonald. Do you think that north take Thilthorpe ? Or do they take Hollands or DGB?
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IF the Crows take McDonald then Thilthorpe goes to North. Instant replacement for Brown
 

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Its interesting you selected Sam Berry over Tom Powell for St Kilda in the board Phantom Draft? On the limited footage available Powell has more of a running game, more suited to the modern game. I like how he gives 20 metres handballs and opens up play for his team mates. Berry to me looks a slower stonger version who plays in a similar vain to Luke Dunstan/Cunnington.

If it was my choice I would select Powell just becauee of his greater potential to grow with the game, his burst of speed and his accumulative capacities. Thoughts?
 
THE_GUN said:
Could you list your top 5 small fowards KM
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It's one of those where it's a question of where you draw the line on height, position and type.

If I'm talking sub 182cm pure pressure/crumbing types: Coleman, Rioli Jr, Durdin, Bowey, Brockman, Spicer.

Chioli said:
Say the Crows take McDonald. Do you think that north take Thilthorpe ? Or do they take Hollands or DGB?
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North may consider Thilthorpe but my prediction at the present time is if Adelaide take McDonald that North take Hollands.

Saint Michael said:
Its interesting you selected Sam Berry over Tom Powell for St Kilda in the board Phantom Draft? On the limited footage available Powell has more of a running game, more suited to the modern game. I like how he gives 20 metres handballs and opens up play for his team mates. Berry to me looks a slower stonger version who plays in a similar vain to Luke Dunstan/Cunnington.

If it was my choice I would select Powell just becauee of his greater potential to grow with the game, his burst of speed and his accumulative capacities. Thoughts?
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It was a close call between the two (Berry and Powell) and as I acknowledged in my post both were considered as the two best players available in my view and also coincidently great list fits for St Kilda who still even with the addition of Crouch still need more in the way of good midfielders to support Steele. Both Berry and Powell are well inside my top-20 power rankings but Berry I find has the stronger contested side/tackling/ball user/run of the two, the more versatile as someone I'd also be more comfortable playing forward or back of the pair. A year out from the draft, he's not far off where Serong was at the same age/stage in my view. So he's had a fan in my for a long time. Highly influential player.

I find Berry applies his run to a greater extent offensively in game than Powell and has greater burst out of stoppages - though they're facets Powell has shown growth in to his credit. It might not read this way on paper with Berry as his 20m sprint times look bad, but he's fast in game and has that burst out of stoppages, and that comes from having the endurance and work rate and always being on the move and having good agility to go with it.

Will be interesting to see who of the pair has the better career. Not seeing Berry this year, it's impossible to know how much if at all he has improved which makes the call all the more challenging. But he's someone I give the benefit of the doubt to as one of the best performed last year and of the Victorians on performances on the board for me that guy who is second only to Phillips on just how advanced his game already was.
 
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hatescaptcha said:
What’s your thoughts on Ryan Angwin KM?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
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He's a name I'm hearing more and more in a draft context. He's a chance mid-late. Very light, late year birthday. Interestingly high % won contested, and that's more an indication that he doesn't know how to find outside ball as his numbers are low. He's a project player but one who is physically developing. Excellent endurance athlete. Hard worker from all reports. At this stage he needs to find a position where I feel like he can become AFL standard. He'll need time and need to find that spot where you can pick him at the selection table at AFL level with confidence.
 
qldtiger1 said:
Thoughts on Maurice Rioli JNR ? Where do you see him draft wise ?
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May attract a late bid. Richmond would love to get him through the rookie draft otherwise.

I like his game. Brings the best forward pressure in the draft with the second, third and fourth efforts. I feel like for Richmond he can be another Daniel Rioli, both stylistically and roughly on quality once developed.
 
Mr MysteryGuest said:
Those who like Thilthorpe over McDonald, often mention contested marking as the difference. But from what I’ve seen McDonald’s contested marks is still pretty solid, how do you rate them there?
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Both are good contested marks. Thilthorpe has the extra strength, height and reach and probably takes a slightly higher proportion of his marks contested, but McDonald is a legit high level mark in his own right and tends to take more closer to goal and in more dangerous spots. I feel like McDonald is the more reliable and consistent mark with Thilthorpe someone when he gets hot who can really get hot.
 
Knightmare said:
It's one of those where it's a question of where you draw the line on height, position and type.

If I'm talking sub 182cm pure pressure/crumbing types: Coleman, Rioli Jr, Durdin, Bowey, Brockman, Spicer.



North may consider Thilthorpe but my prediction at the present time is if Adelaide take Thilthorpe that North take Hollands.



It was a close call between the two (Berry and Powell) and as I acknowledged in my post both were considered as the two best players available in my view and also coincidently great list fits for St Kilda who still even with the addition of Crouch still need more in the way of good midfielders to support Steele. Both Berry and Powell are well inside my top-20 power rankings but Berry I find has the stronger contested side/tackling/ball user/run of the two, the more versatile as someone I'd also be more comfortable playing forward or back of the pair. A year out from the draft, he's not far off where Serong was at the same age/stage in my view. So he's had a fan in my for a long time. Highly influential player.

I find Berry applies his run to a greater extent offensively in game than Powell and has greater burst out of stoppages - though they're facets Powell has shown growth in to his credit. It might not read this way on paper with Berry as his 20m sprint times look bad, but he's fast in game and has that burst out of stoppages, and that comes from having the endurance and work rate and always being on the move and having good agility to go with it.

Will be interesting to see who of the pair has the better career. Not seeing Berry this year, it's impossible to know how much if at all he has improved which makes the call all the more challenging. But he's someone I give the benefit of the doubt to as one of the best performed last year and of the Victorians on performances on the board for me that guy who is second only to Phillips on just how advanced his game already was.
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Mcdonald no longer a top 2 pick?
 
Prochard123 said:
Mcdonald no longer a top 2 pick?
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Half asleep when responding. Have edited to read: North may consider Thilthorpe but my prediction at the present time is if Adelaide take McDonald that North take Hollands.
 
Knightmare ...

CD.... a very interesting way to look at the trade period... wealth transference....

Have geelong got wealthier or have they brought forward their wealth and are they forward spending it over the next couple of years. Is it boom before a the bust? Is it the 1920's before the crash.... or is it a clever use of assets to leverage what they have and max the next two years.. and with luck they find a way to cover 2023/2024 sometime in the future. They seem to recognise that draft picks have never been as costly as they are atm... when players like Caldwell and Hatley cost what they did in their draft years ..then in two years time .. cost less..probably as better more ready players?


The second thing in relation to your thought bubble on wealth transference .... if we said Geelong got a tall forward , an HalfForward and an outside wingmen.... with their picks 13,15,20. who could geelong have drafted for those roles? ....could they eventually be as good as the three matures ins or would you say that 40 games from a Higgins is probably going to enrich geelong more than a career from who ever we drafted etc. Its like Geelong see a moneyball valuation in older players compared to who they could buy for the draft picks..


The two players id be interested in as an assessment of list fitment would be Gown and Ballenden for Geelong. To be honest Id not though of Ballenden as a KPD ..only a tall forward..and Gown has been mention by some over the last coulple of years.. but I have never seen anything of him...

How do they compare to Harrison Macreadie. Blues DFA?


Again interesting vid. Thnaks for your efforts
 
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