Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Jordie_tackles]

Would demons be happy if got ordure wines and stringer with first three if they dontk have to use first round on him or who would u think would be best with our first three picks

O'rourke?

I would not be unhappy, but i would hope for one of Mayes or Toumpas personally, it is hard not to be happy with 3 top 14 picks, but what you suggested is not my ideal outcome.

 

[DrMubutu]

Would demons be happy if got ordure wines and stringer with first three if they dontk have to use first round on him or who would u think would be best with our first three picks

When we get Viney, we won't pick up Wines.

 

[Knightmare]

Would demons be happy if got ordure wines and stringer with first three if they dontk have to use first round on him or who would u think would be best with our first three picks

Any scenario where Melbourne get Viney in the 2nd round is a massive win.

With 3/4 Melbourne if Viney goes later probably take two of: Grundy/Macrae/O'Rourke/Wines assuming Whitfield and Toumpas go top 2, but if GWS can trade into top 2 then maybe Toumpas slides and becomes one of these selections.

At 13 any number of players will be looked at Stringer is one of many options who could be available. Ben Kennedy would also be an excellent fit as that very quick small forward who could rotate into the midfield right away.

Knights what type of forward is Bourke. Geelong have knocked him back as a father and son. And rumour is Gold Coast are going to trade him to Brisbane, Just wondering what pick we would have to give up to get him and where you would rank him. And would he be a good player for brisbane to trade for

Bourke is worth somewhere around a 3rd round selection. Trade that and he is likely yours and probably a good fit for Brisbane's situation.

Probably one of the better mid draft KPF options and it might allow some of those earlier selections to be on smaller types which could be handy if keen for some best availables.

Bourke is a very good athlete for a key forward but also very strong overhead and should grow out well with time. Has some Sam Reid to him without being quite that same level talent.

 

[Patron]

O'rourke?

I would not be unhappy, but i would hope for one of Mayes or Toumpas personally, it is hard not to be happy with 3 top 14 picks, but what you suggested is not my ideal outcome.

Scully, trengrove, gysberts? And that was with better picks. You would hope you do better this time around.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hey KM, would you be doing cartwheels if the reports today that Melbourne offered you guys pick 4 for Wellingham and Dawes are true? And who would you take, or what would you do with pick 4, if you were in charge?

 

[Damo80]

Hey KM, would you be doing cartwheels if the reports today that Melbourne offered you guys pick 4 for Wellingham and Dawes are true? And who would you take, or what would you do with pick 4, if you were in charge?

Surely that's overs for those two. Perhaps pick 13 + sweetener if the Dee's really are keen on the pair?

 

[aussierulesrules]

You don't need to tell me mate, I reckon Melbourne would have to off their rockers to offer pick 4 for them. Pick 13 and 26 would be the absolute most I would offer, if I were Melbourne.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, would you be doing cartwheels if the reports today that Melbourne offered you guys pick 4 for Wellingham and Dawes are true? And who would you take, or what would you do with pick 4, if you were in charge?

I don't see Wellingham and Dawes getting pick 4 and I think this rumour might be somewhat exaggerated.

On pick 4 interestingly it doesn't have a success rate as high as you'd expect and going through the years I'd probably take the Wellingham + Dawes combo over many of those recent pick 4s.

Assuming Whitfield, Grundy and Toumpas go in those first three selections I'd go against the grain and add Jackson Macrae for the Pies in the unlikely scenario pick 4 happens. I value the combination of not only what he showed this finals series but also the consistent and very swift improvement he demonstrated this season. This to me suggests that he will be able to stand up in the big games and additionally continue developing strongly once in the system which suggests all things said and done that he will be one of the best from this draft.

As a fit for the Pies, Macrae could easily slot in on a wing and rotate into the forwardline adding more pace to a midfield without any real linebreakers and some more footskills to a midfield group who have really struggled by foot this season. Fasolo was the only real playmaker this year through the midfield who could deliver to the forwards and I can see the forward group really benefitting from Macrae's delivery.

 

[God Save Max King]

Hey Knightmare, was wondering if you could do a comparison of Jaksch vs Shaw, and Kennedy vs Garlett? I think that Jaksch and Kennedy would be the better 2 in the respective pairs but I am not an expert by any means.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I don't see Wellingham and Dawes getting pick 4 and I think this rumour might be somewhat exaggerated.

On pick 4 interestingly it doesn't have a success rate as high as you'd expect and going through the years I'd probably take the Wellingham + Dawes combo over many of those recent pick 4s.

Assuming Whitfield, Grundy and Toumpas go in those first three selections I'd go against the grain and add Jackson Macrae for the Pies in the unlikely scenario pick 4 happens. I value the combination of not only what he showed this finals series but also the consistent and very swift improvement he demonstrated this season. This to me suggests that he will be able to stand up in the big games and additionally continue developing strongly once in the system which suggests all things said and done that he will be one of the best from this draft.

As a fit for the Pies, Macrae could easily slot in on a wing and rotate into the forwardline adding more pace to a midfield without any real linebreakers and some more footskills to a midfield group who have really struggled by foot this season. Fasolo was the only real playmaker this year through the midfield who could deliver to the forwards and I can see the forward group really benefitting from Macrae's delivery.

Fair enough. Do you see Macrae as enough of an upgrade on Wellingham (not to mention Dawes) to make it a worthwhile trade, though?

I would have thought that to make it worthwhile enough to lose two of your recent starting 22 you would need to pick up someone like Tippett (if you have the cap space after losing Wellingham and Dawes), Grundy, or Hogan?

Maybe you would be better off keeping Sharrod and trading Dawes and your first round pick for Melbourne's pick 13/14 and target someone like Garlett/Kennedy/Simpson/Menzel with that pick, to give you the run and carry and good disposal out of the midfield, plus goalkicking ability?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, was wondering if you could do a comparison of Jaksch vs Shaw, and Kennedy vs Garlett? I think that Jaksch and Kennedy would be the better 2 in the respective pairs but I am not an expert by any means.

Shaw is the more dangerous goalkicker closer to goal and likely the more successful as the deep forward. Both are strong marks but Shaw might also have the slight edge in this area also.

Jaksch is more versatile - good either as a key forward/key back and can play either higher up the ground or deep. While Shaw is probably the more accurate goalkicker I'd give Jaksch the edge in field kicking - but foot he has rare kicking ability and can find targets inside 50 better than any tall I've seen. Also his tackling game is a class above and is very willing giving the 2nd + 3rd efforts.

Both are exceptional talents and it's more dependant on what you are after (for a deep, dangerous goalkicker then Shaw is the guy) but for everything else Jaksch.

Garlett I'd rate the superior talent v Kennedy.

With Kennedy there are less application issues and personality questions. Also for pace and then inside ball winner I'd also give Kennedy the edge in the immediate.

Garlett of the two would be my selection though by a fair stretch. Excellent both inside and outside and has shown the more development of the two and likely has a fair bit more upside and Kennedy mostly the player he will always be - which isn't so bad but Garlett should pass him by both with outside but also inside game with some years in the system.

On Garlett though unless the club has a very strong culture - think Sydney/Geelong/Adelaide/Hawthorn/Collingwood/West Coast then I'd probably look elsewhere because he seems like the type who needs strong leaders + coaches around him to really get the best out of himself and in a strong system then I really see him having this success.

Fair enough. Do you see Macrae as enough of an upgrade on Wellingham (not to mention Dawes) to make it a worthwhile trade, though?

I would have thought that to make it worthwhile enough to lose two of your recent starting 22 you would need to pick up someone like Tippett (if you have the cap space after losing Wellingham and Dawes), Grundy, or Hogan?

Maybe you would be better off keeping Sharrod and trading Dawes and your first round pick for Melbourne's pick 13/14 and target someone like Garlett/Kennedy/Simpson/Menzel with that pick, to give you the run and carry and good disposal out of the midfield, plus goalkicking ability?

In the immediate it's hard to expect an 18 year old to be an upgrade on Wellingham - who particularly by Collingwood fans it seems these days is very underrated with his excellent two way game. In addition to that with Wellingham I've never felt he has been correctly utilised through our midfield with what in recent years has been a strong midfield rotation. Macrae with a couple of years in the system can probably go past Wellingham and all things said and done I see him having the better career and developing into the better player both outside + inside if things work out as I hope.
Moving Dawes while he is my preferred 2nd key forward I'm ok with moving in a trade of this type. Collingwood still have Cloke, just added Lynch who is a solid key forward then Paine is ready to play with Gault another very capable young key forward. In addition to this Collingwood can F/S Stewart this year and with Darcy Moore coming in 2014 I'm not super worried about Collingwood's key forward stocks with both in the immediate and long term are secure.

Both Wellingham and Dawes have played in premiership and are very valueable players who I'd probably prefer to keep given their ages and how valueable players of that age group are to future premiership runs but given the circumstances if both request a trade then pick 4 is certainly a very good return.

Grundy if he slides would probably be the pick for Collingwood at pick 4 if that did happen, but who knows. I like Macrae slightly more at this stage but with Grundy such an immediate ruckman he would really suit our situation and could pretty easily slot into that no.2 ruck spot and play some forward minutes which would be interesting to watch and with Jolly in his 30s, Grundy would be very handy insurance with Wood not good enough to beat a 1st and 2nd year AFL ruckmen and Witts and Ceglar both still developing and still another couple of years away from being meaningful contributors at the next level.

Tippett I don't think is interested in Collingwood - though he would be a good fit as another strong contested marking target. With Tippett I do feel he is slightly overrated and his game is somewhat limited with his profile a little over the top for what he has achieved, so likely at the end of the day Adelaide do very well with whatever return they get in that trade. If Collingwood got pick 4 in return I wouldn't be moving it for Tippett.

Similar with Hogan, if I had pick 4 trading it for him while he looks like a very good immediate key forward once he can start playing I rate him somewhere closer to selection 8 as I do with Tippett, so pick 4 is maybe a slight reach.

With Wellingham my feeling is if West Coast + Fremantle aren't interested then likely he stays anyway (which is my preference anyway) which probably means Dawes only to Melbourne. A return of pick 13 would be a very good return and I'd certainly take that in Collingwood's situation, then it's probably just a best available selection.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Well said. As for Dawes, do you really think you're a chance to get 13 for him alone?
If you did get pick 13 just for him, after the season he's just had and with a fair sized ? over his overhead marking and with all those others coming through that you mentioned, I reckon you'd be laughing all the way to the bank. Then you could pick up Jaksch, or Shaw, yourselves, or take a punt on Menzel, or Stringer, or grab someone like Garlett, if he slips through.

 

[TerryWallet]

I would think Dawes and Pick 18 for Pick 13 and steak knives would be more realistic.

 

[Knightmare]

Well said. As for Dawes, do you really think you're a chance to get 13 for him alone?
If you did get pick 13 just for him, after the season he's just had and with a fair sized ? over his overhead marking and with all those others coming through that you mentioned, I reckon you'd be laughing all the way to the bank. Then you could pick up Jaksch, or Shaw, yourselves, or take a punt on Menzel, or Stringer, or grab someone like Garlett, if he slips through.

It will be interesting to see whether Melbourne would offer pick 13 for Dawes. They are keen to add that 2nd key forward and add some more mature bodies and hard workers so Dawes certainly fits what Melbourne are looking to achieve and more than any other club I can imagine they will pay a premium to do so.

If I was in Melbourne's situation I wouldn't be offering pick 13 for Dawes and would probably request Collingwood add their 2nd round selection to the deal to get some more value back as a minimum. But some closer to the situation rate Dawes more highly so it could go either way.

Knowing the draft in Collingwood's situation I'd be pretty happy with pick 13 with that top end being pretty even I'd back the club in to find a better talent than what we are losing in Dawes. Whether that be Macrae/Stringer/Vlastuin/Garlett or whoever is looked at with maybe a Membrey at 18. These are the ones I see as appropriate fits for Collingwood's situation anyway who could be available in this range but I've heard Rendell is a big Menzel fan so maybe we go in that direction.

I would think Dawes and Pick 18 for Pick 13 and steak knives would be more realistic.

I've never made any suggestions about Dawes' worth but Dawes + pick 18 for pick 13 I can't imagine would get anywhere.

Dawes is a much better player than he demonstrated this season and as one of the few developed KPFs available his value might just surprise.

Neeld knows Dawes having been an assistant with Collingwood so I'm sure he would have a strong feel for what Chris' value to his team would be better than most.

 

[God Save Max King]

Tom Clurey has just run an unconfirmed 15.0 in the Beep Test in the AFL Draft Combine. How will this effect his draft order? I think that he would be Top 20 for sure and probably Top 15.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Man, with this new free agency system suiting you guys down to the ground and now Melbourne seemingly willing to pay you overs (is Neeld still working for you, undercover? ) for the likes of Dawes, you must be in hysterics! You guys won't be visiting the bottom half of the ladder again in the forseeable future.

 

[TerryWallet]

If Melbourne have to use 3 on Viney then they will probably offer pick 26 for Dawes.

Surely they wouldn't even entertain giving Pick 13 for him.

If Collingwood keeps Wellingham Goldsack, Krakour, McAffer, then it really becomes obvious that they must move Dawes on. That decision seems to have been made on Dawes so they haven't got a lot of bargaining power i wouldn't imagine. Maybe only Footscray would be interested bar Neeld. Gotta remember he comes with a rumoured 375K contract.

What i would be interested in hearing is if it came down to it would you rather:

Pick 26 on its own in a str8 swap for Dawes

OR

Pick 13 and Melb 3rd Rd for Dawes and your Pick 18

 

[BracedMantis05]

now melbourne has signed shannon byrnes does that make them less likely to take ben kennedy at pick 13 like you have predicted?

 

[Snake Charmer]

Could Yarren be a steal??? either late or as a rookie. Iirc you rated him early

 

[Knightmare]

Tom Clurey has just run an unconfirmed 15.0 in the Beep Test in the AFL Draft Combine. How will this effect his draft order? I think that he would be Top 20 for sure and probably Top 15.

I think it more than anything in Clurey's case confirms in the minds of recruiters that he is a top 20 selection.

Good testing rarely shifts a player far up the rankings. Hill last year had his draft stocks helped some with Brad Harvey as a Brisbane rookie also benefitting from testing well but mostly the testing is more a way to explain on field performance/tendencies and confirm in your mind that the player is particularly compitent in particular areas.

Man, with this new free agency system suiting you guys down to the ground and now Melbourne seemingly willing to pay you overs (is Neeld still working for you, undercover? ) for the likes of Dawes, you must be in hysterics! You guys won't be visiting the bottom half of the ladder again in the forseeable future.

Free agency helps the powerful and contending teams and hurts those less powerful and bottom dwellers.

I'm not sure about Collingwood not visiting the bottom half of the ladder any time soon. Jolly is nearing the end and is still a clear top 5 player - lose him and there is no appropriate replacement in the immediate. Tarrant is retired who was a key player. Then Maxwell, Johnson, Didak, Krakouer, Lynch, Ball and Swan could also retire within the next three seasons which drops Collingwood down some.

Add Wellingham and Dawes who could both realistically move as free agents and a large group of our best side are gone in a hurry so I'm probably not as opimistic as you are even though I recognise that the bulk of the key players are still in/entering their prime.

But I appreciate the optimism.

I don't think Neeld will do us any favours. He has a strong relationship with Collingwood and Nathan Buckley so I think he will, as Collingwood will be fair in their dealings with one another.
We'll see what eventuates anyway. With still limited clarity on what happens with a number of key players the dynamic could change for any number of clubs in a hurry.

If Melbourne have to use 3 on Viney then they will probably offer pick 26 for Dawes.

Surely they wouldn't even entertain giving Pick 13 for him.

If Collingwood keeps Wellingham Goldsack, Krakour, McAffer, then it really becomes obvious that they must move Dawes on. That decision seems to have been made on Dawes so they haven't got a lot of bargaining power i wouldn't imagine. Maybe only Footscray would be interested bar Neeld. Gotta remember he comes with a rumoured 375K contract.

What i would be interested in hearing is if it came down to it would you rather:

Pick 26 on its own in a str8 swap for Dawes

OR

Pick 13 and Melb 3rd Rd for Dawes and your Pick 18

Neither. Dawes is contracted so Collingwood can still retain him and if offered these deals would knock it back. Trade request or not.

The salary cap has been managed in such a way that even with Cloke signed and Lynch added that there is still enough room to sign all of our existing senior listed players and this has never and won't this season be an issue.

It is still entirely possible if Dawes and Wellingham so wanted that they could both be retained beyond this year - though admittedly this is looking unlikely with Dawes requesting a move and Wellingham most keen to move home to WA if a deal can be reached.

now melbourne has signed shannon byrnes does that make them less likely to take ben kennedy at pick 13 like you have predicted?

With Byrnes a 28 year old I don't think that necessarily changes much. Byrnes is only a potential 2-3 year rental so Melbourne might still look for a long term player as that quick forward and if pick 13 is retained I still would expect Kennedy to be on the short list and be one of a large number considered.

Could Yarren be a steal??? either late or as a rookie. Iirc you rated him early

The name is deceiving. He's not quick like the Carlton Yarran and is a non improve. Might get drafted but hasn't done enough to suggest that with a late/rookie selection that he would represent any more value than the next selection.

 

[sTeeL]

First problem I see is Fremantle taking a true Key position player. We all know they don't do that...

 

[IanW]

The wild cards at the top of the draft are firstly Jack Viney and secondly the minidraft picks.

Both of those sets of decisions will heavily affect the top ten (as will GWS deciding whether or not to just Pay. The. Man with Jonathon Giles).

 

[aussierulesrules]

It's going to be interesting to see who ends up trading for the mini draft picks. If GC end up with one does whoever they pick up end up on their list next year, or d they not join it till the year after?

 

[manny100]

I think Dawes and Wellingham and Collingwoods first round for pick 4 would be a good trade. Collingwood would pick up an elite player and lose 2 reasonably good players. MFC would players exposed to a great winning culture and take their chance with the late first round pick. The MFC list needs to rub shoulders with these type of players. If GC or MFC land Viney through F/S bidding this would effectively be pick 3 - irresistable to Collingwood.
I think that Wellingham will throw a spanner in the works on this one and the MFC may have to throw in pick 13.

 

[Nickos66]

First problem I see is Fremantle taking a true Key position player. We all know they don't do that...

Nah, we should be good this year it's only pick 20 in previous 3 years that we've taken the scrawny flankers in Fyfe/Pitt/Crozier. 16 should net us a more pressing need this year, if not..

Watch the Freo board MELTDOWN.